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FXUS62 KILM 230519
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1219 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift off shore bringing a considerable
warmup for Wednesday. Gusty showers will accompany a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday followed by a return of fairly
seasonable and rain-free late week weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 933 PM Tuesday...Adjustments for the mid evening updates
include an increase in overnight sky cover. Expect an uptick in
T/Td overnight, as the rapid return moisture overspreads the
area, patchy light drizzle after daybreak around Cape Fear and
the north coast is possible for early Wednesday.

As of 300 PM Tuesday...Latest water vapor imagery and model
upper level analysis showed a ridge across the southeast with
plenty of dry air across the Carolinas. Surface high pressure
with an associated cooler air mass was keeping temperatures
across the region below normal for this time of year.
Temperatures ranged from the upper 30s west of I-95 to the mid
40s near the coast. Winds were light out of the east.

High pressure at the surface will continue to shift eastward and
move offshore today as winds rotate to the southeast and eventually
the south. A warm front will pass tonight into early Wednesday
morning and bring a return of warm moist air to the Carolinas. There
will be some slight chances for rain showers with the approaching
cold front , but the main bout of precipitation will be associated
with the cold frontal passage later in the day Wednesday. With a
lack of instability, no thunder is expected. With some easterly
winds moving across cold ocean waters near the shore, some chances
for sea fog advecting inland tonight into Wednesday is possible.
Main fog areas are expected to be fairly patchy in nature, but
localized reductions in visibility are possible in low lying areas
tonight into Wednesday.

Low temperatures tonight will not be as cold as previous nights and
will be closer to normal in the 30s and lower 40s, and highs
Wednesday under a warmer air mass will increase into the mid 60s,
which is about 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Increasing deep southerly flow ahead of a
cold front will increase moisture through the column. Mid to
upper trough will provide enhanced lift as it moves east through
early Thurs morning. This will spread gusty showers into the
area from the west. The best lift and moisture will combine to
bring the greatest QPF just before daybreak and lasting through
Thurs morning as the front marches rapidly eastward.

Strong jet in the upper levels, will combine with a llj up to
50 to 70 kts and a warm and moist environment to produce
potential for some stronger wind gusts to affect the area.
Soundings show limited instability remaining mainly aloft early
Thurs morning, so should end up being gusty showers rather than
thunderstorms, but may include slight chc for a few hours just
ahead and along the cold front. With such strong low level
winds just off the surface, even shallow convection will be
capable of producing very strong winds at the surface.

Air mass will dry out rapidly as cold front moves farther off
shore through Thurs aftn. Pcp water up to 1.75 inches Thurs
morning will diminish to under a half inch by Thurs aftn in deep
W-NW flow. Overall, expect clouds to break as cooler and drier
air makes its way into the area late Thurs into Thurs night.

Temperatures well above normal Wed night into Thurs, with mid
60s for lows and well into the 60s to close to 70 on Thurs
before the cool air arrives in the aftn. Temps Thurs night will
drop back down into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Cool and dry high pressure will build in
behind cold front on Friday as a broad mid to upper trough
remains draped over the eastern CONUS. This will maintain temps
near or below normal through the weekend with plenty of
sunshine. Models still in disagreement on system early next
week. Right now it looks like shortwave will drive a cold front
into the Carolinas on Monday while an area of low pressure rides
up off the Southeast coast or the Bahamas. Should increase rain
chances by next Tues.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 06Z...An influx of low-level moisture has brought CIGs at MYR
and FLO to near MVFR/VFR. Expect this to continue with a brief
periods of MVFR, especially at FLO. MYR is seeing northeasterly
winds return and drying out the low-levels allowing for OVC skies to
become BKN to SCT and rising CIGs. Northeasterly winds will keep dry
air in place long enough to delay the onset of flight restrictions
elsewhere until winds become easterly around 09Z. Expect areas of
patchy fog in the morning as the warm front moves onshore bringing
low-level moisture with it. Areas inland will remain cloudy with
little chance of fog. Expect largely MVFR at inland terminals
throughout the forecast period and VFR with intermittent MVFR at the
coastal terminals. Isolated areas of very light showers, drizzle,
and sprinkles will impact the area beginning around 12Z and lasting
through much of the day on Wednesday until around 23Z. A line
of heavy showers and storms will impact the terminals after the
end of the forecast period. Expect CIGs to fall to MVFR by 23Z
at all terminals preceding the line of showers.

Extended Outlook...MVFR overnight Wednesday into Thursday due to
showers and a passing cold front. VFR Friday through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 933 PM Tuesday...E waves every 11 seconds dominant for
now in the wind-lull, gradually into Wednesday however, SE waves
of shorter wavelength will amplify in response to mounting
winds offshore. Seas 3-4 ft, and marine clouds will be on the
increase with patchy fog or light drizzle possible inshore early
Wed.

As of 300 PM Tuesday...High pressure moves offshore with an
onshore flow 10 to 15 kts tonight. Air is fairly dry, but there
is some chances for some light patches of sea fog to develop
tonight into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, winds will shift to
the south Wednesday with some chances for light rain showers
with the warm front overnight and greater chances for heavier
precipitation when the cold front brings precipitation later
Wednesday.

Seas become more hazardous later Wednesday with increasing wave
heights and wind speeds from the south. Small craft will certainly
be at risk, and a gale is possible.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Strong southerly winds will develop ahead
of an approaching cold front Wed night into Thurs. Seas will
rise above SCA thresholds heading into Wed eve as southerly
winds increase up to 15 to 25 kts. As mentioned previously, low
level winds just above the surface increase up to 50 to 70 kts,
but may not mix down with the cooler water temps. As convection
moves through Thurs morning, some of these stronger winds
should mix down. A Gale Watch has been issued to account for
these strong winds through Thurs morning. Once confidence
increases, either a Gale Warning or SCA will be issued to
address the strong winds and high seas, peaking up to 8 to 10 ft
Thurs morning.

Winds will veer to the W to NW behind cold front Thurs aftn and
begin to drop. By Fri morning winds will veer around further, to
the north, diminishing to 10 to 15 kts. Seas should drop below
SCA thresholds by Fri morning.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...High pressure will build in behind cold
front through Fri. Winds will lighten as they veer to the N and
then NE by Fri night. May see a weak front move through Sat
night into Sun morning producing variable winds across the
waters, but overall expect lighter winds and seas subsiding to
less than 4 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MAS/VAO
MARINE...
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