FXUS62 KILM 061734
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
133 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...AND
STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SATURDAY...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR OUR AREA
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. THE FINAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED AT 11 AM.

ALL RAIN HAS ENDED AND SKIES WERE CLEARING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS
TROP STORM HANNA MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TTHE CENTER WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 175 MILES NORTH OF WILMINGTON AT 11 AM THIS MORNING. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS FOR A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST...ACCOUNTING FOR
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON
BACK SIDE OF HANNA...EXPECT SKIES TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM SW TO
NE. SW WINDS AND INCREASING INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RECOVER TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SATURDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...WHILE A WEAK SFC TROF LINGERS BEHIND THE EXITING
HANNA. CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER WITH DAYTIME
TEMPS JUST TOUCHING 90. CURRENT FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
GFS MOS...WITH A NOD TO THE FACT THAT ETA MOS IS NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT. HELD ON TO DIURNAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH
DAYS...MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE AS DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE YOUR AVERAGE CAROLINA
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION POPPING ON THE
SEABREEZE...AND TEMPS AGAIN TOUCHING 90. COLD FRONT DROPS IN ON
WEDNESDAY BUT GFS AND HPC ARE SIMILAR IN STALLING IT JUST SOUTH OF
THE ILM CWA BY THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS AS THERE
IS NO SHORTAGE OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL HINGE ON
THE EVENTUAL FATE OF DISTANT HURRICANE IKE. EAST-WEST ORIENTED
UPPER RIDGE IS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP IKE MOVING WEST INTO THE GULF AS
PER THE LATEST NHC FORECAST. HOWEVER DAYS 6 AND 7 WILL HINGE ON
HOW MUCH FARTHER WEST THE SYSTEM TRACKS BEFORE FINDING A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE. FOR NOW IT APPEARS TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH NOT TO
HAVE A REAL IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WX IN THE CAROLINAS...SO POPS WILL
BE KEPT IN THE SILENT CATEGORY WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS 2-3K AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS UNTIL
20Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
MOIST SOILS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MVFR
VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 08Z A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR AT LBT.
VFR EXPECTED AFTER 13Z WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEAST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 16Z.

OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANCE IFR VISIBILITIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SATURDAY...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED FOR OUR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF SURF CITY.

SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 8 TO 13 FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS FOR
MARINERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR OUR LOCAL WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL HOLD THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR. FOR NORTHERN WATERS SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BY LATE
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SATURDAY...TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
KEEP A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE. LIGHT AND MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
EXPECTED AS THE SEABREEZE WILL DOMINATE. SEAS WILL LEVEL OFF IN
THE 4-5 FT RANGE WITH RESIDUAL SWELL...AND NEW INCOMING SWELL FROM
DISTANT IKE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SATURDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES TO DAYS 4 AND 5. WEAK
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SEABREEZE-DOMINATED REGIME WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS. SEAS ARE ANOTHER MATTER ENTIRELY...AS THEY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SWELL COMES IN COURTESY OF IKE. WILL GENERALLY
KEEP SEAS AROUND 4 FT...WHICH IS JUST A BIT HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED
BY ANY CURRENT RUN OF WW3 GUIDANCE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ254- 256.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...MRR







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