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FXUS62 KILM 240724
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
324 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
One more chilly start this morning...before temperatures rise
above normal for the entire upcoming week. A series of passing
low pressure systems will bring slight chances of rain Sunday
through Tuesday, and again late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 324 AM Friday...After a chilly to in some spots frosty
morning today will turn out seasonable under a sunny sky, some 15
degrees warmer than yesterday. This is thanks to a surface and low
level area of high pressure off the coast. The sunshine will largely
be sponsored by the mid level ridge, shifted a bit further west from
the low level feature and generally be centered overhead. This upper
level ridge will move east tonight, opening up the area to some
deeper moisture advection, albeit in a fairly gradual manner.The
warm advection will continue as well bringing a seasonable to
slightly mild night with lows fairly close to 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 AM Friday...Hearty warm air advection already
underway to kick off the weekend, with a short-wave cyclone
pushing into the middle Mississippi valley and a high pressure
cell axis elongated along 34 N in the western Atlantic. If you
like your maximum temperatures in the 70s this will be your
weekend. Curvature of the low pressure system northward Sunday
west of the area, will deflect the bulk of precipitation into
the Appalachians with little offerings near the coast, thus
small rain chances Sunday and favored well inland. Low-level
convergence offshore may spark a few marine showers toward land
but rain amounts if any to be minimal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 324 AM Friday...A very mild week on tap with a series of
southern stream short- waves providing a chance of rain Monday
into Tuesday and again late in the week. Maximums this week each
day will range from the middle 70s to lower 80s, and generally
warmer inland away from the cooling effects of the ocean as a
robust sea breeze looks in the making each afternoon. Cross
sectional analysis and instability parameters suggest a slight
chance of a TSTM late Monday through Tuesday. Low level and mist
southerly wind flow will prevail this period, with a brief and
weak back-door frontal intrusion early Thursday will little
consequence except to lighten winds for a small time before
another southern stream system approaches, with a rain potential
on Friday.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 06Z...High confidence in VFR for all terminals through the TAF
valid period. Still cannot rule out some moisture in the 1-3kft
range along the coast but it should not form a ceiling. Models have
also backed off on this moisture anyway.

Extended outlook...Flight category restrictions are possible in
stratus/fog during the early morning hours of Sat and Sun and
in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sun through
Tue.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 324 AM Friday...Things looking pretty quiet on the marine
front through the period. High pressure off the coast and
progressing slightly eastward will turn easterly winds to the
south. Wind speeds will remain capped at 10kt and seas 3 ft or
less.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 324 AM Friday...A manageable weekend on tap for mariners,
nearly summer-like in nature, as south winds 10-15 kt prevail
and seas 2-4 feet, highest offshore. Seas a bit larger for the
winds mainly due to SE waves of 2-4 feet between 7-10 seconds
generated from low pressure interacting with high pressure north
of the Bahamas. thus seas slightly elevated due to SE swell.
At this time no advisories however anticipated. A few showers
may spawn over the waters Sunday but no TSTMS expected over the
0-20nm waters.


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 324 AM Friday...Summer like pattern continues as S-SW
winds prevail 10-15 KT. A SE swell will keep seas slightly
elevated, but dominant periods of around 10 seconds will not
make wave particularly steep. Late Tuesday into early Wednesday
a few TSTMS can be expected as a low pressure system passes
north of the area. Wednesday may see a few storms linger over
the Gulf Stream waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ087-096-099-
105.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...MBB
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