FXUS62 KILM 151953
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
353 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019
High pressure will move offshore through Monday. Warmer
temperatures are on tap for the upcoming week. In addition,
moisture will gradually increase next week with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front could pass
through the area late in the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...Ridge of high pressure continues across the
area with a dry column in place. As the center of high pressure
moves farther offshore the flow will veer allowing for warmer
conditions in weak return flow. While a few cool pockets are
expected tonight with lows in the lower 60s most inland areas will
see lows in the mid 60s with immediate coastal areas dropping into
the upper 60s to around 70. Patchy fog is also possible with no
significant visibility restrictions. Weak westerly flow aloft will
persist Sunday and Sunday with some passing high cloudiness while
more diurnal cumulus is likely as some low-level moisture returns.
Otherwise no POPs needed during the near term period.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...Persistent SW flow continues into
Monday as Bermuda high pressure holds steady and a mid-level
shortwave trough traverses the southern Plains and lwr MS river
valley. Despite weak forcing, with increasing moisture, widely
scattered diurnal convection is expected, especially over SW
areas. Temps will be near normal for mid June...highs in upr 80s
to lwr 90s.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...Long term period will be characterized
by sfc high pressure remaining offshore and occasional passing
shortwave troughs aloft over the area.
Precip Chances: There will be frequent chances for shras/tstms
early in the period, especially Wednesday/Thursday (50-60%
PoPs) as moisture increases and energy approaches in the W/SW
flow aloft. A drying trend then ensues by Friday as a potent
shortwave aloft pushes offshore.
Temps: Near normal through the entire period...highs avg in the
upr 80s to lwr 90s, with lows in the low/mid 70s.
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 18z...Predominantly VFR. Diurnal cumulus is having a tough
time developing in our area due to dry mid-levels, but may see some
develop at SC terminals this afternoon. Few high clouds throughout
TAF period. Forecasting MVFR fog at inland terminals early tomorrow
morning, and possibly some development at coastal sites,
particularly in SC. Guidance not really depicting any fog and so
confidence isn't high. South-southeasterly winds this afternoon and
evening will go calm overnight, before southerly winds develop
tomorrow as high moves further offshore.
Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR through the end of the forecast
period with brief MVFR/IFR conditions Mon thru Thurs from convection
and early morning fog and/or low stratus.
As of 230 PM Saturday...Light onshore flow will prevail through
tonight with a ridge axis extending across the coastal plains.
As the high shifts farther offshore the flow will veer to a
southerly direction and increase during the afternoon, aided by
the sea breeze. Seas will be 2 ft or less through tonight, then
up to 3 ft with some chop by Sunday afternoon.
No marine headlines anticipated through the middle of next
week. Overall pattern will consist of Bermuda high pressure with
occasional troughs of low pressure over land. This will yield
frequent S/SW winds of 10-20 kt. Seas will stay 2-4 ft through
Wednesday, consisting of 4-5 second Sly 2-3 ft wind waves and
8-9 second SEly 1-2 ft swell. Seas up to 5-6 ft possible then
for Thursday/Thursday night.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
tonight for NCZ107.
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