FXUS62 KILM 190737
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
326 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019
Cool high pressure will build into the area today. Low pressure
will move up the coast Wednesday night into Thursday spreading
rain across the region. High pressure will bring a warmup
beginning on Thursday into the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Breezy and cooler than normal for middle March
as we see increasing interaction of a strong continental ridge axis,
and a trough extending NE from the Bahamas. Upstream cirrus-stratus
to overspread the region, but it appears thin in the GOES IR and ASH
channels with holes being worn in. Winds to remain elevated through
tonight, with SREF ensemble plumes of 10-meters winds averaging 11-
13 knots through daybreak Wednesday, this likely higher along the
coast/ICW. Dewpoints to take a gradual drop through tonight before a
15-20 deg F climb Wednesday, still low on the humidity scale.
By the end of this period late Wednesday, we see a portion of the
Bahama trough impinging our coast, embedded with showers due to
increasing low level convergence over the Gulf Stream waters.
Portions of the showers will be thrown landward over the high
pressure wedge, bringing, increasing stratiform rain. This would
be a welcome relief for an increasingly parched SE NC and NE SC,
and the intrinsic winds of springtime.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Guidance has changed somewhat this period but
has also come into good agreement. The strong upper disturbance
crossing the area still expected to lead to offshore cyclogenesis
but now the low tracks close enough to shore to spread some moderate
to heavy rain onshore that will last into midday Thursday before the
entire system surface and aloft lifts out to our northeast. The shot
of moisture will be somewhat short-lived but during its window some
impressive isentropic upglide will pair with strong dynamics and
most locales should net a quick half to three quarters of an inch of
rain according to the WRF. Will not go that high until other models
become supportive of such. The GFS does not phase as much northern
stream energy into the upper trough and has a weaker low and lower
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Deep upper trough over the Northeastern US on
Friday will weaken and lift out rather quickly. Locally this shuts
off the cool advection and a warming trend will get underway as flow
across much of the nation becomes zonal/of very little amplitude.
This trend will then start to reverse on Monday; the mid level
energy developing low pressure across the Gulf States that may bring
a little rain this far east.
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 0544Z...Breezy VFR, with occasional runway gusts NE to 24
kt coastal terminals, 17-19kt inland airfields through the TAF
cycle. Canopy of BKN180-240 first half of TAF period.
Extended Outlook...VFR, possible MVFR Wednesday night through
Thursday with storm system. VFR returns Friday into weekend.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...As of 3 AM Tuesday...Rough conditions and
SCA flags flying. Increasing interaction of a strong continental
ridge axis, and a trough extending NE from the Bahamas, will
maintain strong NE winds locally. Sea spectrum entirely
overwhelmed with NE waves, 4-8 feet every 6-8 seconds. Marine
showers and rain possible Wednesday night, as a surface trough
from the Bahamas nears.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...The short term
forecast has changed some towards a more active period yet there
is still some uncertainty as to how much conditions actually
deteriorate. Early in the period low pressure will develop
offshore and move up the coast. Models have differing solutions
regarding the strength of this feature as it does so. And while
the forecast has not been nudged all the way towards the
strongest solutions winds and seas are now expected to ramp up
to Advisory levels.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...North to northwesterly flow expected
on Friday as a large area of high pressure builds into the
eastern US. As the high's center draws nearer the flow will back
to westerly and decrease allowing for about a 1 ft decrease in
overall wave height.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 10 AM EDT this morning for
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
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