FXUS62 KILM 060200
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1000 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020
Moisture from the south will fuel scattered showers and
thunderstorms this weekend. A cold front will drop slowly south
through the Carolinas late Sunday, bringing slightly cooler air
into the region Monday into midweek, with lower chances for
showers and storms. Showers and thunderstorms should increase as
front moves across area Thursday into Friday.
Forecast updated to lower chances of rain tonight, as coverage
of convection has greatly diminished.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Isolated shras/tstms across the area this aftn are having a tough
time developing with lack of a more focused forcing mechanism. Have
therefore lowered PoPs through the evening, with the highest chance
over western areas (30%) and 20% elsewhere. Not expecting any severe
wx due to weak parameters like shear. Expect coverage to diminish
overnight, with a warm and muggy night expected. A bit of a pre-
frontal trough then for Sat, but again forcing is lacking so have
capped PoPs at 30-40% during the aftn hours. With the main cold
front still off to the north, expect highs to reach the low 90s most
areas with 80s right at the coast. Drying trend then again for Sat
night with PoPs below 20% for the overnight hours. Low temps in the
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will push a cold front
southward through the Carolinas on Sunday. The deep mid to upper
trough will exit the Northeast coast as high amplitude ridge
builds eastward toward the region. Looks like best chc of any
shwrs will come late Sun aftn into Sun night as boundary drops
slowly south through local forecast area. Sunday should start
out with plenty of sunshine, but expect increase of clouds and
shwrs as front drops down from north. NAM seems to be the most
aggressive with the development of shwrs/tstms on Sun aftn/eve,
while the GFS and ECMWF show a more moisture starved front.
Expect a warm day on Sunday with temps up between 85 and 90 most
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A slightly cooler and drier air mass will build in from the
north behind it Mon into midweek. The center of the high will
remain north as it migrates eastward which will produce an onshore
flow into midweek. Therefore, should see enough low level moisture
return to have some cu, but subsidence and dry air aloft as
mid to upper ridge builds in, should limit localized
shwrs/tstms in forecast.
Cristobal or remnants should move up from the lower Mississippi
Valley early next week and this may hold up the front or keep a
boundary over SC. If so, it could also remain a focal point for
convection. Once the remnant low moves north, the ridge gets
squeezed out over the Southeast coast through midweek and
front or trough should reach into the Carolinas from the west
by Thurs or Fri. This will increase clouds and chc of
thunderstorms. Models are showing a low over the Atlantic moving
in from the east and then lifting north which could slow the
progression of this front. This may also play a role in the
forecast around Thurs/Fri timeframe. Temps will run near or
slightly below normal through much of the week.
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Convection is very
isolated this evening, so have included no mention of pcpn in
the TAFs. Some residual light showers may come through during the
overnight hours, but coverage would be very spotty. Winds
generally S/SW tonight into Sat with high pressure offshore.
Extended Outlook...A cold front passage will bring a slight
decrease in showers and thunderstorms into early next week, but
MVFR ceilings are possible in wake of the front.
Little change in the overall pattern tonight through Sat night as
high pressure remains offshore and a cold front approaches from the
NW. General trend is for rising winds and seas, and by Sat aftn the
pressure gradient should increase enough to generate frequent gusts
to 25 kt so have hoisted a Small Craft Advisory. Gusts up to 25-30
kt expected Sat evening, with seas approaching 6 ft over the NC
coastal waters. Not much in the way of a swell component anticipated
during this timeframe, with just persistent 3-6 ft ft 5-6 second SSW
Winds will lighten and shift around on Sunday as front drops
down from the north. Seas up to 3 to 5 ft Sun morning will
subside to 3 to 4 ft by late Sun. High pressure will build in
behind front remaining north of the area as it migrates
eastward, leaving an onshore flow, NE to E on Mon and becoming
SE Tues into midweek. Seas will be down to 3 ft or less Tues
through much of the week in SE winds around 10 kts.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Saturday through
Saturday evening for SCZ054-056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Saturday through
Saturday evening for NCZ106-108-110.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ107.
High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday
evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for
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