FXUS62 KILM 151309
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
909 AM EDT MON MAR 15 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL DRIFT EAST AND
OUT TO SEA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...MAINTAINING WESTERLY WINDS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAY NOT COME UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM MONDAY...DEEP DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS MASSIVE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
DELMARVA CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD DRIFT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
ONE MORE DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...MORE LIKE UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES DUE TO VERY COOL
SHELF WATERS. DESPITE DRY COLUMN...WITH MOST MOISTURE CONCENTRATED
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EXPECT EXTENSIVE CU DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. NO RAIN THOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 AM MONDAY...THE LARGE MID LEVEL CYCLONE THAT WE HAVE BEEN
TALKING ABOUT FOR DAYS WILL BE ON THE MOVE TO THE EAST AS A WEAK
AND BRIEF WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME COOL AIR TO MAKE A QUICK APPEARANCE INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. THE COOL
AIRMASS WILL BE FELT PRIMARILY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST
READINGS REMAINING IN THE 50S SANS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A
SUBTLE RIDGE DEVELOPS BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CLOSED
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDES OFF THE COAST. THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN A POORLY DEFINED MID
LEVEL PATTERN. THE STRONG MID MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SNEAK BACK TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 AM MONDAY...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS AND 1200 UTC ECMWF HAS
SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION. UNTIL THEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH BUT LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH SATURDAY PROBABLY THE WARMEST VIA
A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT DROPS SOUTH TO OFF THE
VIRGINIA SHORES. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH TEMPS STAY NEAR CLIMO BUT LOW TEMPS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS EARLY GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER CU FOR THE
AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS DEWPOINTS LOOK TO
BE TOO LOW AS DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED IN WITH NW FLOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOK
FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUDINESS. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM MONDAY...SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TO 5 FT OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE TODAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS
KEEPING HIGHEST SEAS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 AM MONDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. INITIALLY...WINDS WILL STILL BE IN A RANGE OF
20-25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 20 WITH A POSSIBLE
SCEC HEADLINE NEEDED. WILL SEE WINDS DROP TO NEAR 10 KNOTS OR EVEN
LESS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE COULD INTENSIFY A BIT MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE FORECAST ELEMENTS FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD BUT THE SOLUTION LOOKS RATHER WEAK FOR NOW. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE SWAN IS ADVERTISING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCEC SEAS LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...OTHERWISE...2-4 FEET WILL PREVAIL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 AM MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WINDS IN A RANGE
OF 10-15 KNOTS AND MODEST SEAS. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST
REMAINS THE INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHERE
OFF THE COAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MDC
MARINE...ALL
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