FXUS62 KILM 250759
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
359 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019
High pressure will extend down into the Carolinas from the north
as low pressure tracks north up through the offshore waters off
of the Southeast coast early this week, lifting off to the
northeast through midweek. A cold front will cross the area late
Wednesday into Thursday, possibly stalling nearby next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fairly strong ~1030mb high pressure centered over Maine and Eastern
Canada will continue ridging south into the area today as low
pressure begins to lift NE from Florida well offshore. This pattern
will set up breezy NE winds (esp. near the coast), below normal
temperatures, and lower stratus/stratocumulus clouds across the
area. The atmosphere will begin drying esp. in the mid and upper
levels through the day, and overall think many locations will be dry
today. Kept in some small pops near the coast for any sea breeze
and/or speed convergence activity but with aforementioned drying
occurring, think any QPF will be very light if any. Pleasant
night on tap tonight with dry wx and lows in the mid to upper
60s/near 70 immediate coast. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few
low 60s for far inland locations. Guidance has been a bit too
warm/moist behind the front and have made some minor adjustments
to T/Td fcst to account for this.
The potential tropical or subtropical system will likely make its
closest approach to the area on Monday, but at this point is
expected to be around 300 miles ESE of Cape Fear by 26/18z. As a
result, unless something drastic changes, no direct impacts are
expected across the area although there will be elevated surf/rip
current risk esp. at our more easterly facing beaches. Otherwise am
forecasting pleasant weather with temps a little below normal again
and very low chances of rain with high pressure dominating at the
surface and aloft.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will move off to the east-northeast Mon night into
Tues with a deep W-NW flow across the area on the back end
shifting around to the W-SW late Tues. This will draw some
moisture back into the Carolinas ahead of an approaching cold
front, leading to sct convection across the area for Tues as
ridge slips east and shortwave pushes in from the west. Pcp
water values will increase about a half inch, running near 2
inches by Tues aftn. Temps will rebound through the period to
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid to upper trough extending down from the Great Lakes will
dig down into the Carolinas pushing a cold front east on Wed.
The downslope flow may act to limit convection but expect some
shwrs/tstms ahead of the front Wed. High pressure will build in
behind front across the Carolinas, but the front may stall out
just east as trough flattens out ridge builds back from the
east. This may produce clouds and unsettled weather, especially
along the coast heading into next weekend. Temps will be back up
around normal with highs between 85 and 90 most places and
overnight lows just over 70.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low clouds have set in as anticipated with N/NE flow behind
front. Expect IFR and MVFR to persist the next several hours
before clouds slowly lift through late afternoon/evening. Drier
air starts to work in late in the TAF period and could see some
VFR late esp. around LBT closer to source of dry air. Otherwise
expect periods of gusty NE winds from 16-00Z up to around
Extended...Mainly VFR Mon and Tue as high pressure dominates and
tropical or subtropical system lifts NE off the coast. Next
frontal system Wed/Thu timeframe may bring additional
No change to previous thinking with NE winds and associated short
period seas expected to increase to Small Craft Advisory levels
through the day and continue tonight as pressure gradient
tightens between strong high pressure N of area and low
pressure moving NE from Florida. Seas will be considerably
smaller near south facing beaches given NE direction though.
Still expect winds/seas to slowly subside through the day
tomorrow as high pressure north of area starts to weaken.
However will obviously need to watch potential
tropical/subtropical system well offshore for any potential
Northerly winds will back around to the W-SW Mon night through
Tues as low pressure moves off to the E-NE. This weakening
offshore flow will allow seas to diminish from 4 to 5 ft Mon eve
down to 3 ft or less Tues into Wed. May see seas spike back up
again late Wed into Thurs as a cold front moves through the
waters. This front may linger across the waters through late
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to noon EDT
Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
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