FXUS62 KILM 050818
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN MAINLY TO NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF OUR COAST MONDAY WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 3:00 AM SUNDAY...BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY WILL LEAD TO AN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION
EVENT...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL BEGIN ITS TRANSIT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH AROUND DAYBREAK...CLEARING AREA TO
THE SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE FOLLOWING FROPA INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH OVER-RUNNING
PATTERN STILL IN EFFECT. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF EVENT...DO
NOT SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION. RAIN WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE...YIELDING QPF EVENT TOTAL VALUES
GENERALLY NOT EXCEEDING A THIRD OF AN INCH. LATEST RADAR LOOPS
SHOWING PRECIP KNOCKING ON OUR BACK DOOR...JUST TO TO THE WEST AND
NORTH.

CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE HAS MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO OVER OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DOWN SOUTH WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL IMPACT LAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S UP NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S OVER OUR SOUTHERN FRINGES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 40 MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES DOWN SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND END
UP OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WHILE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION LEADS TO
COPIOUS CLOUD COVER. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE AWAY
FROM FLORIDA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG UPPER VORT SLIDES
ACROSS VA. AS THESE TWO GROW CLOSER SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH WE MAY BE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF. OVERALL THOUGH RAINFALL PROSPECTS (AMOUNTS) APPEAR
NEGLIGIBLE AS MOST OF IT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF HERE.
PREFER THE DRYER LOOK OF THE WRF COMPARED TO THE GFS. WRF TEMP
PROFILES MAY HAVE TO BE ESCHEWED HOWEVER ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AS
THEY BECOME MUCH COLDER THAN MOST ALL OTHER GUIDANCE (850MB TEMPS
DIPPING TO NEAR 0C). INTERESTINGLY ITS MOS NUMBERS ARE NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THOSE FROM OTHER GUIDANCE DUE TO DIFFERENT FORECAST
MIXING DEPTHS. TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTIES ASIDE TUESDAY SHOULD BRING
AMPLE SUNSHINE AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE W IN A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID LVL FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNLESS A
LEAD SHORTWAVE THURSDAY MANAGES TO DRAW COASTAL FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE POLAR VORTEX WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTH INTO HUDSON BAY AND PATTERN WILL TURN VERY WINTER-LIKE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LEADING EDGE OF THE VERY COLD AIR APPEARS TO
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WITH NO MOISTURE TO LEAD TO ANY MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CONFIDENCE STILL HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS FRONT IS SLOW MOVING
AND PRECIPITATION IS LIFTING MORE TO THE NE AWAY FROM OUR CWA. THE
MAIN BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION STILL BACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLY SOUTHWEST INTO ALABAMA WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE TO OUR
NORTH ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. EXPECT TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
TERMINALS UNTIL AT LEAST 09Z-12Z NEAR THE COAST...WILL MENTION
VCSH ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS EARLY ON.

AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT IT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. I HAVE PUSHED BACK THE START OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS AS PER THE RUC/NAM AND
GFS ALBEIT THE GFS LOOKS TO BE THE FASTER OF THE MODELS. NOT
CONVINCED OF THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THUS HAVE A LOW
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE START OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
DO THINK THAT ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS AND CEILINGS COME DOWN
THAT THEY WILL STAY DOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE LOW STRATUS DRIZZLE TYPE SITUATION AS FRONT
DRAPES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING CLOSE BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR SUNDAY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...BY 12Z
SURFACE LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS GEORGIA INTO ALABAMA.
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW EAST ACROSS NC
TO JUST NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. WE SHOULD BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY..EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
AND CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...POST FRONTAL. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PROB30
DURING THE EVENING AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND WE STAY IN THE LOW
CEILINGS AND DRIZZLE PORTION OF THE FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION AND IFR RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. VFR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 AM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS EARLY TODAY...WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE SW THIS MORNING TO
THE NE BY TONIGHT. WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR OUR NC WATERS THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE SWLY WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FROPA...WITH SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. A LULL IN
THE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA...WITH WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN TO
AROUND 15 KTS OR SO FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD SURGE MOVES DOWN
THE COAST.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...PERIOD INITIALIZES VERY BRIEFLY WITH A
MODERATELY PINCHED NE GRADIENT BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE APPRECIABLY
AFTER JUST A FEW HOURS. WIND AND WAVES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 3 TO
4 OR JUST 3 FT RANGE. WIND WILL RETAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH NO INCREASE IN SPEED NOTED AS WEAK HIGH
BUILDS IN ESP BY TUESDAY PM. WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE EVENTUALLY SETTLING TO JUST 2 FT OR EVEN
LESS MAINLY NEARSHORE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...THE HIGH THAT HAD BUILT IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE SHORT TERM WASHES OUT BY WEDNESDAY IN FAVOR OF A MORE BROAD
ANTICYCLONE AGAIN TO THE WEST. A FAIRLY LIGHT N TO NE WIND WILL
CONTINUE AND VERY MANAGEABLE SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS WILL ALSO PERSIST.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NE GOMEX TO THE SE
COAST BY THURSDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A CATEGORY OR TWO OF INCREASED
WIND SPEED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL ACCORDINGLY BUILD 1
TO 2 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC






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