FXUS61 KILN 200200
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1000 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017
A weak and dry cold front will wash out overnight, while high
pressure strengthens over the Ohio Valley into Friday. High
pressure will then extend across the region into Saturday. The
next weather system to affect the area will arrive late Sunday
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A weak cold front will wash out over the area overnight.
Typically with this type of scenario there would be a better fog
potential, however with dry airmass in place decided to limit
fog to the river valley locations at this time. Will continue to
watch as temp dewpoint spreads have decreased. Made only minor
adjustments to temperatures with lows in the 40s to around 50.
In general just expect some high clouds across the region
through the overnight.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
During the day Friday mid level ridging will continue during the
afternoon with 500 mb heights around 586 dm. 850 mb temperatures
are expected to rise to around 15 degrees C with low level
thicknesses (1000/ 850mb) increasing to around 1385 m. Both of
the aforementioned values would indicate highs in the mid 70s
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Well advertised pattern change is still expected to take place
during this period. While large scale changes are in good agreement,
there are discrepancies in the details of how this evolves. Main
differences are in the southern stream closing off over the mid
Mississippi Valley and how fast that opens up and gets absorbed into
the developing long wave trough. The other is how quick/deep the
northern stream energy is that carves out this trough.
In general, there is a trend towards a slightly slower progression.
Thus very warm temperatures will persist through the weekend. Some
showers could work into western counties Sunday afternoon, but it is
more likely that showers will hold off until later. Unsettled
conditions will occur Sunday night through Monday night with a cold
front gradually working across the region. Some showers could linger
into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Much cooler temperatures will
move in with Wednesday still looking to be the coolest day of the
week with highs around 10 degrees below normal. The amplified upper
pattern will be progressive, so as the trough moves east, short wave
ridging will work in on Thursday. Thus it will dry out by then
although cool conditions will continue.
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some fog will be possible overnight at KCVG, KILN, and KLUK.
Only went with tempo MVFR at KCVG and KILN, however have lower
visibilities at KLUK due to river valley fog. Otherwise expect
VFR conditions across the TAF sites. Some high clouds will move
across the region through the TAF period. Winds are expected to
be light and less than 10 knots.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday night
into Monday night.
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