FXUS61 KILN 240006
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
806 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018
High pressure building through the Great Lakes will provide a
couple more days of dry weather for most of the Ohio Valley,
although temperatures will remain above normal. Moisture will
begin to increase from south to north on Friday afternoon into
Saturday, and with this a small chance for thunderstorms
especially along and south of the Ohio River. This threat will
expand over the holiday weekend with continued warm and humid
conditions into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Blended observed temperature and dewpoint traces to the current
forecast and essentially rolled the database with little if any
changes this evening.
Quiet weather expected overnight as surface high pressure exerts
its influence over the Great Lakes with light northeasterly flow
and mostly clear skies. Setup appears ripe for some valley fog
development, and perhaps a little fog outside the valleys
especially in south central Ohio and northeast Kentucky.
Temperatures overnight much cooler than previous nights with 50s
in most areas, with the coolest readings in drainage areas in
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather continues into Thursday as high pressure continues
to bring drier easterly flow into the area. Plenty of sunshine
around some high clouds, and temperatures will respond nicely
into the 80s by afternoon. Deeper moisture begins to work around
the backside of the high on Thursday night across Kentucky and
points south, but do not expect any shower chances to make it
this far north until Friday (see below). With slowly returning
moisture, warmer overnight lows expected Thursday night all
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Summer-like pattern is expected for the majority of the long term,
with above normal temperatures and a chance of mainly diurnal
showers and thunderstorms particularly over the weekend and again
during the middle of next week.
Return flow around high pressure will allow moisture increase to
begin on Friday. This will lead to a few pop of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly southeast of Interstate 71.
Then the coverage of afternoon convection is likely to increase for
Saturday as precipitable waters are forecast to be back near 1.5
inches. In addition to better moisture and instability, a shortwave
is forecast to enter the Ohio Valley by afternoon promoting
Scattered mainly diurnal convection continues on Sunday. It's
possible coverage of convection may be a little less early next
week, although in this pattern pop ups will still be possible. Then
models suggest moisture streaming from the south ahead of a
shortwave by mid-week for at least scattered convection.
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure with a few cirrus clouds spilling over the region
from the northwest will occur over the Ohio Valley for the next
day or two. Northeast winds under 10kt will also prevail as the
high remains over the Great Lakes region through this time. Some
river valley fog may create some MVFR vsbys at KLUK towards
OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
Saturday through Monday.
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