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FXUS61 KILN 231947
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
347 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region through the end of the
week. This will provide for mainly dry conditions and cooler
temperatures through the weekend. An upper level trough will
cross the region Thursday afternoon, increasing the chances for
a spotty shower or two in central Ohio.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Temperatures will drop tonight into the lower to middle 50s in
most locations under clear skies and generally light northwest
winds. Daytime cu will dissipate pretty quickly this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cumulus field will be a little more robust on Thursday than was
seen today, and an upper level shortwave will cross with peak
heating, leading to some scattered or isolated shower activity
for the northeastern third of Ohio, particularly in central Ohio
portion of the CWA.

Skies will clear once again for another night of good
radiational cooling. Readings Thursday night will drop down to
the 50-55 degree range with a few cooler locations dipping into
the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Model solutions are in good agreement showing upper level S/W
pivoting away from the Ohio Valley while surface high pressure
builds into the Great Lakes region to start the long term
period. With northwest flow aloft becoming established, the
stage will be set for tranquil and seasonably mild conditions
for this upcoming weekend.

Went close to guidance with highs/lows Friday through Sunday as
models seem to have a good grasp on how weather pattern will evolve
through the first part of the long term period. This being said, do
think that Saturday morning will feature unseasonably
chilly temperatures before abundant sunshine allows for efficient
modification during the afternoon hours. Cannot completely
rule out a few isolated upper 40s Saturday morning, especially in
rural areas of west-central and central Ohio. On the other side of
the coin, with ample dry air in place and plenty of August sunshine,
guidance may end up being a tad too low on high temperatures both
Saturday and Sunday, so nudged afternoon temperatures up a degree or
two across the board to account for this.

As the surface high pressure drifts eastward through the Great Lakes
and northeast U.S. for the second half of the upcoming weekend into
early next week, a slow modification in airmass is expected as
southerly flow becomes re-established in the area. Past this
weekend, model solutions begin to diverge somewhat with the GFS
showing a potent S/W and associated surface low moving through the
Great Lakes region Monday and early Tuesday while the ECMWF
maintains high pressure influence in the Ohio Valley through Tuesday
before lifting the feature northeastward towards midweek.
Nevertheless, the environment should rebound enough by Monday and/or
Tuesday that with the approach of a system, slight chance and chance
PoPs were maintained in the forecast.

Past the early/mid week system, solutions have been fairly
consistent in showing the remnants of a tropical system (Harvey)
meandering northward through the southeastern U.S. and /potentially/
into parts of the Ohio Valley towards the end of the long term
period. As of right now, confidence is very low for how this
tropical system will evolve and get re-absorbed into the mid-
latitude westerly flow. Timing and track of this system should be
narrowed down to a certain degree this weekend as the system becomes
more sampled by upper air and surface observing networks. Until
then, it may just need be watched as we progress through early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail over the forecast with fair wx cu
during the daylight hours, dissipating with nightfall. North-
northwest winds around 8kt during the day will relax to under
5kt overnight with a more westerly component.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Franks
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