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FXUS61 KILN 171051
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
551 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push off to the east through this afternoon.
A weak cold front will drop down across the area tonight into
Sunday, bringing the chance for some light rain and snow to the
region. A gradual warming trend is expected through the later
part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IR satellite imagery is showing a stratus deck remaining in
place across our area this morning. Surface high pressure
currently centered over the upper Ohio Valley will shift east
through this afternoon. As it does, the lower level flow will
transition to more of a southerly direction along and south of
the Ohio River. This will lead to some weak low level WAA and
this may be enough to start to erode away some of the lower
clouds. There is some uncertainty to the timing of this erosion
though and also how far north it will make it. Will lean a
little on the pessimistic side and keep a fair amount of clouds
in through much of the morning and then allow for some gradual
erosion across the south into this afternoon. These clouds and
the amount of any breaks will also have an affect on
temperatures today. Will run highs from the upper 30s in the
northwest to the mid to possibly upper 40s across the far south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Shearing out short wave energy moving across the southern Great
Lakes will help push a weakening cold front down into northern
portions of our area tonight. Moisture is mainly limited to
below 700 mb, but this may still be enough to produce some
light precipitation across northwest portions of our area
heading into tonight. Thermal profiles across our northwest
support mainly a rain/snow mix initially and then possibly
changing over to all snow across our far northwest later
tonight. QPF amounts should be on the light side though with
little if any snow accumulation expected.

The front will continue to sag southeast across our area through
the day on Sunday as a weak surface wave rides east along it.
This will keep the chance for few showers going across much of
the area during the day on Sunday, but again with relatively
limited moisture, will keep pops on the lower side. Highs on
Sunday will range from the upper 30s in the northwest to around
50 across the south. This will support a rain/snow mix with any
precipitation across our northwest, with generally rain
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold surface cold front with a strung-out disturbance aloft will
be stretched across the Ohio Valley to start the long term period.
While forcing will be rather meager with this system, the arrival of
a more focused S/W Sunday night should allow for light rain and/or
possibly a rain/snow mix to develop initially south/west of the ILN
FA before propagating eastward into the southern half or so of the
local area Sunday night into the first part of Monday morning. The
last several model runs have shown a slightly more focused vort max
translating the Ohio Valley Monday morning, yielding increased
confidence in the potential for more widespread /albeit still light/
precipitation during this time period. As such, did raise PoPs a bit
for the southern third of the ILN FA Monday morning before the
activity inevitably pushes east of the area by the late afternoon.

As mentioned, the low level thermal profile will likely be very
close to the typical critical thresholds between rain and snow with
this banded pcpn early Monday morning -- although do think that any
snow would be wet in nature and not likely to stick readily to the
relatively-warm ground. Moreover, where pcpn is likely to be ongoing
Monday morning, near-ground air temperatures will be in the mid-30s,
suggesting that any impacts for the morning commute would be minor
in nature. The mix of light rain/snow is expected to transition to
mainly light rain late in the morning into the afternoon hours as BL
temperatures warm too much to continue to allow for snow to reach
the surface. All in all, cannot completely rule out a few spots
receiving a quarter of an inch of snow on grassy and elevated
surfaces Monday morning -- but do think that this would be the
exception rather than the rule.

Another embedded disturbance within broad and large-scale troughing
across the eastern third of the country will pivot southeast through
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Tuesday. This should keep
/or potentially reintroduce/ a slight chance of light rain/snow
showers on Tuesday, so did add slight chance PoPs to account for
this potential.

Past Tuesday, broad northwest flow aloft will be maintained as
surface high pressure builds into the eastern Ohio Valley by
Thursday into early Friday. Thanksgiving Day continues to look like
a dry one -- with seasonal temperatures in the mid 40s to lower
50s from north to south, respectively.

The next chance for rain may arrive late Friday into Saturday, the
specifics of which will come into better focus in future fcst
cycles.

Overall, slightly below normal temperatures early in the period will
trend to near normal by Thanksgiving and potentially slightly above
normal by the end of the workweek into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The solid MVFR stratus deck is still in place across the area
this morning. As surface high pressure pushes off to the east
and we start to develop some southerly low level flow, we should
begin to see some erosion in the low clouds from the south.
Timing of this is still somewhat uncertain though so will just allow
for a gradual improvement in cigs through the day from south to
north. A cold front will push down from the northwest tonight,
leading to a chance for some light rain, possibly mixing snow
at times later tonight into Sunday morning. The best chance for
pcpn looks to be northwest of the TAF sites so have kept the
TAFs dry for now. Some MVFR cigs will once again be possible
through the later portions of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are expected to continue into
Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JGL
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