FXUS61 KILN 151949
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
349 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019
An oscillating frontal boundary will provide a focus for
showers and thunderstorms into early next week. The chance for
additional rain lingers throughout next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Models are not handling the current situation well. The showers
lifting through the northern counties is weakening and has lost
all of its thunder. This is the area which the models are
saying will be the primer for possible flooding tonight as
additional heavy rain comes in. Meanwhile model guidance
suggests that much of Indiana should be covered by additional
showers and thunderstorms as compared to the pcpn lull. Threw
out the guidance and went with a blend of reality and guidance.
Went ahead and let the pcpn in the north move through while
weakening. Then brought the pcpn in ern IL and the convection
in srn IN back in later tonight. Did not go high PoPs however,
only maxing out around 60 around 03Z. Also backed off on QPF
amounts. However since the FFA is already out, didn't have the
confidence to drop it attm, but confidence is low whether
anything will happen.
After 06z a boundary is forecast to push the better pcpn chances down
to around the Ohio River. It will be a warm and muggy night with
lows in the mid to upper 60s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday, expect the showers and thunderstorms to develop
back across much of the fa as instability increases with the
heating of the day. Kept PoPs in the likely category.
Precipitation chances will linger into Sunday night.
Highs on Sunday will push into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An active weather pattern is expected to continue through the long
term time frame. Several systems will move into the region through
the week. This will keep precipitation chances in the forecast
everyday from Monday through Friday. Due to the several rounds of
showers and storms through the week, there will be the potential for
flooding concerns. Will mention flooding potential in the HWO. In
addition, there will also be a damaging with threat with some of
these storms. At this point given some uncertainty with the severe
potential, will only mention on Monday for now in the HWO.
There will be very little day to day variation with temperatures.
High temperatures will generally be in the middle 70s to lower 80s
through the week and Low temperatures are expected to be in the
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TAFs will start the period VFR. Area of convection in central
Indiana will move through east through the region late this
afternoon into the evening. Latest trend of the CAMs has been
to shift the track of the convection southward a little. Instead
of lifting to the north of KDAY, the models move across the
TAFS between 21Z-03Z. Brought a tempo TSRA to the western tafs.
Convection will begin to taper and drift south after 06Z. Clouds
will lower to MVFR towards 12Z. They will linger much of the
morning before lifting to VFR. Scattered convection will be a
possibility as heating kicks in.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ026-034-035-
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ050-058-059-
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