FXUS61 KILN 050927
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
427 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTH. EXPECT THIS TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER SOME STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE. WITH THE NORTHERN LOW LEVEL FLOW SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY
MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

GFS MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.

MOS IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND SAW NO
REASON TO VARY FROM CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN STREAM. APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THESE FEATURES
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANYTHING THAT WOULD
FALL WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS BY THE TIME ANY
PRECIPITATION MIGHT REACH THERE.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THERE
ARE VARYING SIGNALS CONCERNING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THAT.
SO HAVE KEPT POPS QUITE LOW FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF NORMAL UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK WHEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL AREA TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KCVG AND KLUK WILL BE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. KCVG AND KLUK WILL
ONLY SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR ALL TAF SITES TO BECOME VFR BY AROUND 15Z.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK



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