FXUS61 KILN 190816 RRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
416 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019
High pressure over the region will slowly move east tonight.
South winds will bring in moisture on Wednesday ahead of a cold
front that will cross early Thursday. Showers will develop
Wednesday and continue overnight, ending during the day Thursday
as an upper level trough crosses and drier air is ushered into
the region on northwest winds.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Stratocu found northeast of Dayton and in central Ohio will
continue to slowly move east and generally dissipate this
morning in favor of a higher cirrus that will spill in from the
Generally sunny skies will permit highs today to reach to within
a few degrees of 50 in most locations, a little cooler in
central Ohio and northeast of Dayton where cloud cover early
today will inhibit solar insolation. Given the light winds
expected under the high pressure, temperatures will be heavily
reliant on insolation versus advection.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Generally clear skies will be found as high pressure moves east
and lower level winds turn southerly, with warm advection
inhibiting any lower cloud formation. Some high clouds will be
present with westerly flow aloft streaming in moisture from
convection in the midwest. Lows will drop to within a few
degrees of 30.
Stronger southerly flow will bring in warmer air and eastern
portions of the CWA will warm into the upper 50s, primarily the
lower Scioto Valley and much of northern Kentucky. A little more
cloud cover to the northwest will keep readings here in the
lower 50s. Any rain should hold off until later afternoon west
of a Richmond-Dayton-Wapakoneta line, and reach the I-71
corridor by rush hour. Showers will become more prevalent in the
evening and overnight as the upper level trough gets closer and
the surface cold front lags in Indiana for much of the night,
keeping warm and moist air over the CWA for showers to persist.
Overnight lows will only drop to the upper 30s northwest and
lower 40s southeast.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A surface cold front will follow these features early Thursday
morning, shifting winds northwest and bringing a slightly cooler
airmass Thursday into Friday. Some sprinkles may persist as
cold advection behind the front overturns a still relatively
moist airmass as the upper low crosses overhead. Another
shortwave will cross early on Friday, but any precip associated
with this will be very light. This continues to be omitted from
the forecast on Friday given the changeable placement of the
upper shortwave, relatively dry air it is working through, and
light nature of any precip that may occur.
Rather, the bigger story for the end of the week will be the
presence of an expansive area of surface high pressure, originating
in the northern plains. This surface high will envelop the area on
Friday and likely continue to influence the weather through at least
Sunday morning. Though boundary layer flow will remain relatively
light, the dry conditions and reduction in clouds should allow for
gradually warming conditions heading through the weekend. The degree
of warming is a little bit uncertain, as the GFS does maintain some
more potent northwesterly flow, and the ECMWF is a little quicker
with bringing the next trough eastward out of the plains.
Nonetheless, temperatures should increase into the middle to upper
50s on Saturday, and lower 60s on Sunday -- several degrees above
normal for late March.
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An area of persistent AC is finally seeing its generation area
in southeast Indiana weaken. It will take a few hours for the
backedge to clear all the tafs. Meanwhile an area of cirrus is
dropping southeast and should reach the tafs around 12Z.
Region remains under H5 northwest flow aft 12Z. Scattered
cumulus will develop again by 15Z as the diurnal cycle kicks in.
Expect to cu to develop around 4-5kft.
Cumulus will dissipate by 00Z, leaving a cirrus ceiling. For
the CVG 30 hour taf, ceilings will be lowering ahead of the
next system, with a AS moving in around 09Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday
night. MVFR ceilings may possibly linger into Thursday.
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