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FXUS61 KILN 060212
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1012 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier conditions will work into the region for the
weekend. There will be continued dry conditions with a warming
trend early next week before precipitation chances work back
into the forecast mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
There may be a passing shower or sprinkle across the extreme
northern portion of the CWA over the next couple of hours,
otherwise expect dry conditions overnight with partly cloudy
skies. Meanwhile, a cold front stretching from Michigan into
Illinois will press southeastward, making it into the northwest
portion of the CWA by sunrise. Am not expecting any precip with
the front as it enters the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The front gets held up near the southern portions of the
forecast area south of the Ohio River on Saturday. This will
allow for isolated shower or thunderstorm activity across this
area. Cu will develop across the region with CAA. Temperatures
will still be somewhat warm however with high temperatures in
the 80s to near 90 closer to the frontal boundary. Temperatures
are expected to drop off Saturday evening with lows in the 50s
to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Sunday, an upper level ridge will be centered over the middle
Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will
extend south from Ontario into the Ohio Valley. It will be dry and
seasonal for early June. Highs will range from the upper 70s north
to the lower 80s south.

For Sunday night into Monday, the upper level high will build east
into the Ohio Valley while the surface ridge axis moves east to
Quebec and the New England/mid Atlantic area. It will still remain
dry with humidity levels in check as low level flow continues from
the east. After lows in the lower 50s to the lower 60s, the airmass
will warm/modify underneath the ridge. Highs will warm into the
lower/mid 80s with some upper 80s possible along and south of the
Ohio River.

Models continue to advertise that the remnants of a tropical system,
Cristobal, will be pulled north from the lower Mississippi River
Valley to the middle Mississippi River Valley Monday night into
Tuesday (occurring as the system becomes advected between the
departing mid level ridge to the east and a short wave trough to the
west). Dry and mostly clear skies Monday night will give way to
increasing clouds from the west on Tuesday. Low level flow will
become southerly as dewpoints increase. Instability will show an
uptick with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms becoming
possible by the afternoon hours. Tuesday is expected to be the
warmest day in the extended with highs ranging from the upper 80s to
the lower 90s.

For the period Tuesday night into Wednesday, the remnants of
Cristobal will lift northeast into the western Great Lakes ahead of
the eastward moving short wave trough and its associated cold front.
The threat for showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase
during this period. Despite anomalous high pwats, current forcing
and the speed of the system should limit heavy rainfall for our
area. Clouds and the threat for rain will keep highs in the lower
80s.

The short wave energy is forecast to lift into the Great Lakes
Wednesday night, allowing the cold front to shift east through our
region, bringing an end to the pcpn threat.

For the remainder of the extended, Thursday into Friday, upper level
flow will undergo amplification as mid level ridging builds
northward into the Great Plains, allowing downstream troughing to
develop over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes. A weak front will
likely drop southeast across the region either Thursday or Friday.
Have allowed for the slower solution with the front arriving on
Friday. Thus, will go dry for Thursday with a low chance for showers
and thunderstorms on Friday. Highs in the lower 80s on Thursday will
lower into the mid/upper 70s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Still have some cu early this evening, but these will dissipate
with the setting of the sun. Also can't rule out a shower at
KCMH/KLCK early this evening, otherwise terminals should remain
dry. Continued mention of fog with MVFR vis at KLUK/KILN,
otherwise VFR conditions are expected as a cold front moves
through shortly after sunrise Saturday. Cold front will cause a
wind shift to the northwest, and winds around 10 mph are
expected through Saturday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...BPP/Novak
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