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FXUS61 KILN 192017
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
417 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern will be in place Friday, through the
weekend, and into next week as an area of low pressure
approaches and lingers around the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A few cu will be present through the early evening hours. In
addition mid and high clouds will continue to move across the
region through the night. Dry conditions will be present for
much of the near term, however showers and thunderstorms will
begin to move into the region late in the overnight hours as an
upper level disturbance begins to move into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the
short term Friday morning. Expect most if not all locations to
receive rainfall from these thunderstorms and therefore
increased precipitation chances during this time. Guidance
values also support this as well.

As these thunderstorms move across brief heavy downpours and
small hail will be possible. Not expecting widespread severe
weather during the morning hours, however cannot rule out an
isolated severe storms. Round one will move into central Ohio
and then exit the region by the afternoon hours. After round one
begins to exit the area winds will pick up with some wind gusts
during the afternoon and evening hours around 20 to 30 mph.

There will then be a brief lull or decrease in precipitation
across the region before round 2 begins to work into the area
late in the afternoon and through the evening hours. There is
still some uncertainty with the degree of recovery the
atmosphere will have between these two rounds. Models are in
pretty good agreement that there will be pretty good recovery
across southwest portions of the forecast area around the tri-
state. The primary threats across this area will be damaging
winds and brief heavy downpours, although isolated large hail
and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. There will be better
instability southwest of our region, so will have to watch
because there is a possibility that severe storms will dive
southwards and just clip our region.

In addition there is another area of concern across primarily
central portions of the region from around Hardin County Ohio
southward to around Scioto County and surrounding areas. This
area is closer to a boundary. This threat is a lot more of a
conditional threat. If there can be enough breaks in the clouds
allowing for the atmosphere to recover this could be another
focus area for severe weather with damaging winds. With the
location near the boundary, shear and the potential for
additional isolated tornadoes will be possible as well. If
storms are able to rotate, isolated large hail will be possible.
There is also the potential that if the atmosphere does not
recover as much across this area that the severe potential will
be less. Looking at the latest model solutions, believe there is
at least some threat for severe weather across this region
during the late afternoon and into the evening.

Another disturbance will work through during the overnight hours
allowing for additional shower and thunderstorm activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level low will drift slowly south across the mid Ohio
Valley Saturday and Sunday before pushing into the Tennessee Valley
into Monday. An associated surface low will be situated over
southern Lake Michigan Saturday morning and this will work slowly
southeast into our area through the day on Sunday, eventually
becoming more diffuse by Monday as it continues southward. This will
lead to a fairly good chance of showers and thunderstorms through
the weekend with perhaps some diurnal enhancement. Temperatures will
be slightly below normal over the weekend with highs mainly in the
upper 70s to around 80 degrees. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms will persist into Monday as the low pushes off to the
south and weakens. Highs on Monday will be in the low to possibly
mid 80s.

Our region will then remain on the southern periphery of the more
progressive westerly flow aloft as a series of mid level short waves
are forecast to move across the upper Great Lakes. It looks like
this could result in a weak semi stationary boundary setting up
across parts of our area as we head through mid week. Will therefore
hang on to some lower chance pops through much of the rest of the
long term period and continue to allow for somewhat of a diurnal
enhancement. Highs through the remainder of the period will be
mostly in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A few cu will be possible today. In addition mid and high clouds
will move across the TAF sites through most of the TAF period. A
complex of showers and thunderstorms will move towards the TAF
sites late in the overnight hours and into the daytime hours on
Friday. Have VCTS with tempo thunderstorms in the TAFs. Vsbys
will likely be reduced with the thunderstorms. Some MVFR or IFR
cigs will also be possible. In addition at the longer KCVG TAF
another round of thunderstorms will be likely late in the day.
Winds will pick up during the day on Friday with some wind gusts
possible towards the end of the longer KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times from Friday through
Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Novak
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