FXUS61 KILN 150152
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...MAINLY JUST ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS. EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SORT OF PATCHY IN
NATURE. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE STUCK IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE COULD
BE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH TO
CREATE ANY PROBLEMS OR BE WORTH MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE MOISTURE
BECOMES EVEN MORE SHALLOW (ALTHOUGH TRAPPED WELL BY A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION) AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER FROM THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE FAR FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. BUMPED
MINS UPWARD A BIT IN THE SOUTHEAST AND DOWN A BIT IN THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY.
THE LARGE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY TRAVEL SOUTH FROM CANADA...TO BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD
WILL BE DRY WITH CLOUDS ON MONDAY GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS FROM THE NORTH. THE EXTRA SOLAR
ENERGY WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE FROM MONDAY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY. THUS...THE SUN WILL
PROVIDE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE BOOST IN DAYTIME READINGS. LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE MID 30S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERAL MODEL SOLN/S IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS VLY AND THEN DROPPING SSE INTO THE LWR MS
AND THE SE U.S. BY THURSDAY. THE AFFECTS OF THIS LOW SHUD STAY TO
OUR WEST...SO WL CONTINUE DRY FCST.

ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WX WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND THRU THE WEEK.

ALL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP AN UPR LEVEL TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
ON SAT BUT SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OPERATIONAL GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER. WL FOLLOW SOLN
CLOSER TO ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...HOLDING OFF PRECIP
UNTIL SAT AFTN. IN POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION...PRECIP MAY MIX
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN BEFORE ENDING.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A LTL COOLER THAN MEX ON WED/WED NIGHT AND STAYED
CLOSE ON THURSDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO A LVL ABV MEX FRI/FRI NIGHT AND
THEN BELOW GUID NEXT SAT AND SUN...GOING WITH COOLER ECMWF SOLN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST...BUT
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MAIN IMPACT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THIS LOOKS TO
BEGIN BY LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING. LIFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
KDAY AND KILN AS OF THIS WRITING. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
08Z...AND THIS MAY CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO LOWER A LITTLE FURTHER AT
TIMES.

THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOULD END BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS



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