FXUS63 KILX 060102

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
802 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Issued at 754 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

A weak cold front will continue to sink southward overnight,
holding stationary near the Ohio Valley this weekend. While
temperatures in central Illinois behind this front will not be
significantly cooler, with high temperatures still well into the
80s this weekend, less humid conditions can be expected.


Issued at 802 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Wind shift has passed Springfield and Bloomington as of 7 pm
surface analysis, though observations hint at another boundary a
bit further northwest toward Galesburg. So far, cumulus has been
minimal, and evening upper air sounding from our office shows the
air mass is rather dry. Thus, the slight chance PoP's for this
evening have been removed from the forecast. Lingering cirrus
across the southeast half of the forecast area expected to thin
out with time, leaving mostly clear skies in most areas by after
midnight. Temperatures still look on track, and only needed minor
adjustments in the short term.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

A weak front till drop south through northern IL early this
evening. Forcing and instability along this boundary is minimal
and satellite loop shows CU does not have any vertical extent to
it. So, looks like if anything does develop, it will be closer to
the Chicago metro area. However, there is a boundary and some
moisture, though limited, and keep a 20 pop across the northern
part of the cwa for a several hours this evening. Otherwise, the
remainder of the CWA will be dry with continued high clouds over
most of the area and mid clouds over southeast IL. As the boundary
pushes south through the area through the night, winds will become
northerly and then northeasterly for tomorrow. Dry weather is in
the forecast for tomorrow as a high pressure ridge builds into the
area for the weekend.

Relatively cooler air will also advect into the area with
overnight lows in the middle 60s and afternoon highs tomorrow in
the middle 80s. Warmer lows tonight and highs tomorrow will be
across southeast IL.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Dry weather will continue through the weekend and into the
beginning of next week with highs in the middle 80s to start, then
rising to around 90s by Monday. The next chance of rain will be
when remnants of TS Cristobal reach into central Illinois for
Tuesday through Wednesday. All models are in fairly good agreement
with timing and location of heaviest rainfall falling across the
western half of the CWA, mainly west of I-55 where rainfall totals
could reach 2-4 inches. Areas to the east of I-55 should see
rainfall totals of 1-2 inches. Once the remnants move to the
northeast Wed night, dry weather will return to the area.
Temperatures will start in the 80s on Tuesday but then cool to
around 80 for Wed and then mainly in the 70s for Thur and Fri.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

VFR conditions expected through the period, with any cloud cover
generally at or above 10kft. Wind shift currently working through
central Illinois, about to pass KCMI shortly, and northwest winds
will gradually shift toward the northeast overnight




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