FXUS63 KILX 141147
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
647 AM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 115 AM CST SUN MAR 14 2010

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING PESKY UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
THE CAROLINAS...WITH A SECONDARY ENERGY LOBE ACROSS OHIO. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWING A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE OHIO LOW ABOUT TO
THE CLEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS DIMINISHED...WITH JUST SOME DRIZZLE LINGERING IN A FEW AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW TODAY...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS ON THIS UPPER LOW SPINNING
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY
MOVING OFFSHORE. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THEN WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP. LOW-LEVEL JET
FROM NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SEND SOME MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO
THE MIDWEST. STILL A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AVAILABLE TO HELP
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY EAST OF I-55. NOT A LOT OF
MOVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.

LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP THE EASTERN CWA
FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY...WITH SOME BREAKUP IN CLOUDS
FURTHER WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLEST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CWA...WITH THE WARMEST IN THE FAR WEST. MORE UNIFORM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. EXPECTED TO TILT NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVING A BIT OF
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING HOW DEEP THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME...I.E.
WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW. IN ANY EVENT...
THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND THE LATEST
MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE QPF FURTHER WEST INTO MISSOURI. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS FOR SOME CONSISTENCY...BUT WILL NOT REMOVE THE
POPS FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AFTER MIDWEEK...WITH MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...SWINGING TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON
SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE LONG-RANGE
MODELS ON THE ULTIMATE CONFIGURATION OF THE ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC
FEATURES...WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...
BOTH AGREE THAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY REPRESENT THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES.

GEELHART


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 647 AM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010

A LARGE/COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...COVERING A LARGE CHUNK OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THESE
IMPACTS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN WITH TIME AS THE LOW DRIFTS FURTHER
EAST. IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLIMB SOLIDLY INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY LATER TODAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL STAY NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.

BAK
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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