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FXUS63 KILX 230531
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1131 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Most areas remain as rain this evening, but temperatures have been
hovering just above freezing near Galesburg, and unknown
precipitation has been reported at the airport at times. Main
concern in that region remains after midnight, especially toward
3-4 am, when temperatures quickly fall and precip changes over to
freezing rain and snow. While the latest HRRR track would keep the
main threat of any icing or snow west of I-55 through early
Wednesday morning, forecast soundings suggest the precip may end
as a bit of freezing drizzle across east central Illinois as well.
No changes being made to the winter weather headline at this
time, though a mention of some brief freezing rain Wednesday
morning was added near the I-55 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

A mix of wintery precipitation is possible again tonight over
areas northwest of the Illinois river. Temperatures will continue
to slowly rise over portions of central Illinois late this
afternoon through this evening as rain moves into the area. So not
expecting any ice accumulation until starting around midnight in
the northwest and then slowly progressing to the southeast and
east. In addition, as colder air moves into the area late tonight,
some of the precip will change to snow and some minor
accumulations of around an inch is possible in the advisory area.
Areas to the east of the river should see mainly rain changing to
snow with only very slight chances of freezing rain/drizzle before
it changes to snow. Advisory will go from midnight tonight til 9
am tomorrow...around the time the precip should be all snow or
begin to end. All precip should be out of the area by
afternoon...though clouds and cold temps will remain. Temps will
remain fairly steady this evening and overnight and then begin to
drop into the morning hours and even in the afternoon. Tomorrow's
high temps should be early in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

The winter pattern will continue through the rest of the week and
into the weekend with another clipper system expected for Friday
and Friday evening. This system looks like all snow with some
accumulations possible. Another brief system will skirt the
southern edge of the CWA, but a better clipper system will move
through late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Again this
looks like all snow with some minor accumulating possible at this
time. The last system will be the beginning of next week. This
will be a stronger system with mostly snow to start with changing
to some rain in the southern parts of the cwa during the daytime
hours.

Very cold temps are expected the rest of this week followed by
some slight warming to around freezing for the weekend, followed
by cold temps again toward the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Wind profile from the Doppler radar at KILX shows LLWS continues
over most of the TAF sites, though this should diminish over the
next few hours as the core of the low level jet shifts southeast.
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will continue through the night,
along with periods of rain. Some areas near dense fog have formed
over west central Illinois, close to the incoming front, and will
need to watch this evolve with time. For now, will continue to
mention visibility around 3/4 to 1SM across the TAF sites.

Low pressure associated with this front will move near KPIA/KSPI
toward 12Z, with main focus for any ice/snow just to the west.
Have included mention of this at KPIA for a few hours, and a
rain/snow mix at KBMI. Further southeast, a dry slot should cut
off the precipitation before the changeover occurs. Expect winds
to quickly turn to the west early in the morning, with some gusts
over 20 knots for a time. While the precipitation moves out
quickly during the morning, the ceilings will be slower to
respond, and are likely to still be only MVFR by late in the
period.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ027>030-
036-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Geelhart
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