FXUS63 KILX 250826

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
326 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Clouds will be on the increase today...with a chance for a few
light showers along and south of a Rushville...to Decatur...to
Lawrenceville line. Better rain chances will arrive across the
entire area late tonight into Monday morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

High pressure anchored over the Great Lakes continues to provide a
dry E/NE boundary layer flow...as evidenced by 08z/3am surface
dewpoints in the lower to middle 50s. Meanwhile, a short-wave
trough noted on latest water vapor imagery over western Iowa into
Kansas continues to pivot slowly eastward. Forcing ahead of this
feature has triggered scattered showers across central and
southern Missouri...mainly south of the St. Louis metro. Several
CAMs are suggesting these light showers/sprinkles will spread
northward over the next several hours and impact portions of the
KILX CWA later this morning. Given a very dry airmass above 850mb
and continued boundary layer dry advection from the east, think
any measurable precip will be minimal. Despite the dry airmass,
think the forcing will become strong enough to justify low chance
PoPs for showers along/south of a Rushville...to Decatur...to
Lawrenceville line. Further north and east, skies will initially
be partly sunny, but will become mostly cloudy by this afternoon.
Due to the increased cloud cover, high temperatures will range
from the lower 70s around Jacksonville to near 80 degrees south of
the I-70 corridor. As the short-wave tracks further eastward into
Illinois and the profile moistens from the top-down, showers will
become more numerous late tonight into Monday morning. The best
deep-layer moisture will focus along/east of I-57 where likely
PoPs are warranted. Should see mainly showers, although a few
rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

00z Aug 25 models continue to be in excellent agreement concerning
the timing of the next approaching cold front. After morning
showers pass to the east, rain chances will diminish Monday
afternoon as central Illinois remains between systems. The cold
front will push across Iowa/Missouri during the afternoon and
will reach the Mississippi River by 00z Tue. Given moist S/SW flow
boosting precipitable water values over 2 inches, think showers
and thunderstorms will become numerous along/ahead of the front
Monday night. Have therefore gone with likely PoPs along/west of
I-55 during the evening...then further east overnight. A few of
the storms could potentially become strong to severe across the
western half of the CWA in the evening, with any severe threat
diminishing after midnight as daytime instability wanes. The cold
front will quickly exit into Indiana on Tuesday, with only a few
lingering showers along/south of I-70 by afternoon.

After that, a period of cooler/drier weather will be on tap for
the remainder of the week. Highs will drop into the 70s on
Wednesday, then will moderate into the lower 80s for Thursday/Friday.
Another weak cold front will drop through the region by the end
of the week, pushing temps back into the 70s by Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
cirrus is all the TAFs will see overnight. The cirrus will become
broken during the overnight hours and then more CU is expected to
develop around 5kft during the morning and then continue into the
afternoon. At same time, expecting some broken AC around 8-9kft
to develop and continue into the afternoon. Models are showing
some sprinkles/light showers moving into the area, but think light
enough and not wide spread enough to put in TAFs at this time.
Think also any precip would be morning timeframe. Winds will be
easterly through the period with speeds of 8-11kts.




LONG TERM...Barnes
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