FXUS63 KIND 190841

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
440 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

The Aviation Section has been updated below.


Issued at 344 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

The upper level ridge will remain the dominant force across the
area through the start of the weekend. Thunderstorm chances return
to the forecast beginning Saturday night and continuing into next
week as a frontal boundary moves into the area. Temperatures may
moderate a bit next week to be slightly closer to normal values
for the time of year.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Expect another quiet but warm day with a little additional
humidity as winds begin to turn more southerly late in the day and
dewpoints begin to increase. Bumped blend temps up again
consistent with recent trends.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Although some guidance wants to produce some QPF across portions
of the area on Friday, forecast soundings continue to appear a bit
capped, so will continue with a dry forecast, but with a bit more
afternoon cumulus. Humidity will continue to increase ahead of
the next frontal system as winds turn full southerly.

Will hold off on introducing thunder chances until Saturday night,
more consistent with the Euro which does not suffer from overdoing
precipitation like the GFS. Appears likely that the bulk of the
precipitation will hold off until later in the weekend.

Consistent with aforementioned trend, will bump max temps up
across the board a couple degrees.


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Issued at 350 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Forcing arrives in earnest on Sunday in the form of an upper wave
moving across the area, and a cold front on Sunday night. These
two features will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to
the area to start the long term. Moisture from the remnants of
Imelda should be drawn northward in advance of the aforementioned
forcing, although there is still some uncertainty regarding how
much of this moisture will be left by the time it reaches Indiana.
Models are in better agreement on the heavy rain potential west of
the state. That said, ensembles are showing high pwats (1.75
inches) making it into the forecast area Sunday evening/Sunday
night. Thus will go with high PoPs during that period. Dropped QPF
from NBM to a blend of NBM/ECM/WPC over all but the western
counties for Sunday and the NBM/WPC for Sunday night to drop
amounts where confidence is lower (central and eastern counties).
The Sunday/Monday system has the potential to bring beneficial
rain to the area, but not sufficient to end the precip deficit
across the area. After Monday conditions look mainly dry with some
slight chances for storms starting Tuesday night. By Monday
temperatures should fall back to near normal for this time of year
and stay there for a few days with a more northwesterly
progressive pattern in place.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 190900Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Updated current conditions only. Previous discussion follows...

VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period.

Dry weather with few clouds and light easterly flow will continue
through Thursday morning as ridging at the surface and aloft remain
across the Ohio Valley. The approach of an inverted surface trough
from the south on Thursday will enable moisture advection to
commence across the region by the afternoon while low level flow
veers to a more southerly direction. While model sounding data shows
the atmosphere remaining capped...the increase in low level moisture
may bring an increase in cu coverage over the last couple days
during the afternoon...especially at KBMG and KIND.




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