FXUS63 KIND 092312

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
712 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Showers and thunderstorms will increase this evening and tonight
through Friday as an upper low and associated cold front track
southeastward across central Indiana. Temperatures will dip a bit
as a result starting tomorrow, but the 90 degree temperatures will
quickly return by Tuesday with mid to upper 90s by mid to late
week. After some brief ridging from Friday night through Saturday
evening, shower and thunderstorm chances will pick up once again
Saturday night and Sunday with a second wave. However, the ridge
of high pressure will strengthen over the area again during the
extended period along with some of the hottest weather so far
this summer.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight and Tomorrow/...

Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Convection has been slow to develop this afternoon across central
Indiana. So far, any activity has been focused right around the
forecast area. Nonetheless, the threat will increase late this
evening and overnight as an upper low and associated cold front
drop into the Lower Great Lakes Region. The best forcing will
enter the northwest counties around Fri 09Z, progressing through
the forecast area on Friday. The best forcing will continue to be
over the northern half of central Indiana for the duration of the
event where forcing from the upper low will combine with the cold

Trended toward a sharp cutoff in precipitation chances across the
west/southwest counties rather early on Friday, with the bulk of
the shower and thunderstorm chances confined to the east/northeast
portions of central Indiana Friday afternoon as the upper low
pushes farther into the eastern Great Lakes Region and the
associated cold front moves southeastward.

Temperatures tonight will remain above normal with readings in the
low 70s. But, there will be a slight dip in temperatures with the
front tomorrow. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s tomorrow.


.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow Night through Sunday/...

Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Kept low chances for showers and thunderstorms across the eastern
portions of central Indiana on Friday night with a dry forecast
over the western half of the forecast area. This is a low
confidence forecast though because most of the forcing should be
out of the area. After a lull in activity overnight Friday and
Saturday due to brief ridging, shower and thunderstorm chances
will increase once again from the northwest by Saturday evening as
yet another upper low follows almost the same path as tonight's
upper low. This disturbance will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through Sunday. Meanwhile, high
temperatures through the period will hold steady in the mid to
upper 80s with lows in the upper 60s.


.LONG TERM /Sunday Night to Thursday/...

Issued at 203 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

The long term will start out with NW flow aloft and an exiting
storm system, as the area will be under the backside of an upper
trough. An upper high pressure system will then move in from the
SW for the remainder of the period. This pattern will allow temps
to start out near normal but under the high, temps look to
increase into the mid 90s towards the end of the week. Would not
be surprised if late week temps trend a little warmer than are
currently in the forecast as we get closer. Will have to keep an
eye on heat indices reaching the 100s next week. Daily afternoon
storms will continue to be a threat, but given the relatively
strong high overhead, it should be able to inhibit most activity
aside from a few isolated storms.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 100000z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 708 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

VFR for the first 6 hours of the TAF period. After 6z, will see
chance for thunderstorms increase from the west and then MVFR
ceilings move in by morning. Winds will be light and mostly
southerly tonight, but will become westerly and northwesterly
Friday after a cold frontal passage during the late morning hours.
Could see gusts to around 20 kts behind the front during the
afternoon as well. By late afternoon (if not before) ceilings
should come back up to VFR.




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