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FXUS63 KIND 191133
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
733 AM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

High pressure will provide a dry day today, but then a low pressure
system will bring rain to central Indiana Monday into Tuesday. Dry
and cooler weather will rule the middle to end of the work week,
then rain chances return for Saturday. Below normal temperatures can
be expected mid-week. Otherwise seasonable readings are expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Some patchy fog had formed across central Indiana early this
morning, but not to the extent of Saturday morning. Will continue
with a patchy fog mention in the forecast through around sunrise.

Otherwise expect partly to mostly sunny skies today with some
cumulus developing with heating today.

The model blend high temperatures look reasonable given the expected
conditions today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Clouds will increase tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure
system. Don't believe that any weak forcing that makes it into the
area before 12Z will be enough for rain, so went with a dry forecast
tonight.

A low pressure system will move into the area Monday and Tuesday,
along with an upper trough. A good flow of moisture will be in the
area with southerly flow at the surface and 850mb winds increasing
to around 30kt. An upper level jet will also provide additional
forcing.

Thus feel likely PoPs look good for most areas from Monday afternoon
through Monday night. The stronger forcing will have moved east of
the area by Tuesday. However, the surge of drier air behind the
system will still be moving into the area on Tuesday. This will be
enough for higher-end chance category PoPs for much of the
area.

Will keep some slight chance PoPs for the far east Tuesday evening
to account for any lingering showers.

Precipitable water values increase to around 2 inches with the
system, so heavy rain will be a threat Monday & Monday night. Shear
is enough that isolated strong to severe storms are possible on
Monday & Monday evening as well.

The intialization's temperatures look reasonable through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday Night/...

Issued at 341 AM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

High pressure encompassing much of the Plains and Midwest Regions
will keep conditions dry for the first half of the extended
period, and that part is a high confidence forecast. Rainfall
chances start increasing from the northwest by Friday afternoon
though as the next upper trough enters the Upper Midwest.
Confidence is not high enough at this time though to insert
mention of thunderstorms with the best forcing so far north. After
that, rain chances will diminish a bit briefly on Saturday night
before increasing again late in the weekend as Gulf moisture
increases across the forecast area from the southwest. Meanwhile,
temperatures through the period will be cool early with highs
only in the 70s on Wednesday, but they will gradually increase
back into the 80s through the period, even mid 80s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 19/12Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 727 AM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Poor flight conditions will persist for another hour or 2 due to
fog. However, after the fog dissipates, VFR will be the prevailing
flight category for the remainder of the TAF period. Meanwhile,
winds will generally be light and variable.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD
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