FXUS63 KIND 162101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
401 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.


Issued at 355 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Quiet weather over the next several days with high pressure
building across the area. Near to above normal temperatures
expected throughout. The next chance for precipitation arrives on
Wednesday night as a frontal system approaches that will hang
around for a few days.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 355 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

High pressure building in should keep quiet conditions in place
overnight and allow lows to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Dropped initialization a couple degrees with the clear skies and
light winds expected. Outside chance of some patchy fog in the
southeast counties where cloud cover hung in the longest today,
but even there think this isn't likely so left out.


.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...

Issued at 355 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Dry conditions are expected to continue through the short term as
high pressure builds into central Indiana from the plains and
works its way to the east. Temperatures will continue to run near
to above normal. Models are in good agreement and no reason to
deviate from initialization. Very quiet weather for this time of
year and no impacts expected.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 235 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Ensembles suggest a rather deep progressive trough will move through
the local area around Thursday and Friday, with the flow becoming
zonal by next weekend.

At this point, there are still rather large differences among the
ensembles as to how the surface system will evolve, and its
eventual track. The model data suggest some thickness ridging over
the area, which would lean towards mainly a rain event, with maybe
some mixed precipitation at the tail end of the event. There are
some members that do indicate potential for measurable snow, with a
more southerly surface low track, but these are in the minority at
this time.

Will go with PoPs from Wednesday night into Friday evening to cover
this system. Based on above, will keep precipitation type as rain,
except for the potential for mixed precipitation on Friday and
Friday evening.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 162100Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 326 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous
discussion follows.

Satellite loop indicates lingering LIFR ceilings at the KBMG
terminal should scatter out by issuance time.

Otherwise, no significant cloud cover and unrestricted visibility
expected at the terminals through this evening. Surface winds
260-290 degrees at 7-11 kts this afternoon will diminish to 4-7
kts after dark.




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