FXUS63 KIND 210345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1145 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 348 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

Cooler temperatures continue into tomorrow. There's a chance of
rain late tonight through mid day tomorrow which is more likely to
affect the western and northern portions of our CWA. A frontal
system with more widespread rain is expected to move through the
area Tuesday night through Wednesday. Another system is possible
over the Great Lakes over the holiday weekend which could bring
more rain to the area.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 348 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

The night will start with cooler temperatures and dry conditions.
CAMs have been showing a chance of rain in the predawn hours due
to isentropic lift, mainly for the northern and western portions
of our CWA. Confidence is not high in regards to rain reaching our
area so kept PoPs somewhat low.


.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Issued at 348 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

Slight chance of PoPs will start out the day and diminish by
early afternoon. Then Tuesday should be dry with slightly below
normal temperatures before a frontal system brings in likely rain
during the overnight hours. The front is prompted by a low moving
from the north central Plains towards the upper Great Lakes.
Models are still showing that the precipitation will diminish as
it moves into and across our CWA so our eastern counties likely
will not see has much precipitation as further west.

High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be
in the low to mid 80s. Winds will start out of the east and shift
to out of the south to southwest after the passage of the frontal
system during the short term.


.LONG TERM (Thursday Night Through Monday)...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Central Indiana will remain on the edge of an upper high through
much of the long term period. As various impulses ride the edge of
the ridge, they will bring periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms, especially to the northern half of the area.

Of course that far out timing and strength of these impulses are
uncertain, so confidence in any one period's PoP is low. Also, if
the strength of the ridge changes, PoPs will too.

The ridge will bring above normal temperatures through the period.
Friday could see heat indices in the lower to middle 90s.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 21/06Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1133 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period.
There is a chance for some rain showers early this morning, but
they shouldn't impact flight operations. Meanwhile, winds will
start out northeasterly and gradually veer to the southeast at 5
to 10 kts. They will increase to over 12 kts late this afternoon
though with gusts up to 25 kts. In addition, low level wind shear
will be a threat for Tuesday night as a low level jet moves in
ahead of the next system.





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