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FXUS63 KIND 150810
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
410 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Aviation section updated

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

High pressure will build in behind a departing cold front. This will
allow for the rain showers to end from northwest to southeast late
this morning. The next chance of rain will not be until Friday and
Friday night as another frontal system moves through.

Temperatures will remain below normal with highs only in the 50s.
Overnight lows will approach freezing tonight and Wednesday night.
Early morning frost is possible at times, especially tonight and
Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight and Today/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Radar mosaic was showing showers moving in from southeastern
Missouri and east central Illinois. A cold front was dropping
southeast across the area, and the upper pattern featured fast
southwest flow aloft, an upper low over northern Minnesota and a
trough extending southwest from the low across the northern Plains
and Rockies.

Models in good agreement the front will be southeast of central
Indiana before daybreak. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh and other
models suggest the rain showers will be ending from northwest to
southeast this morning into Midday. Patchy fog will also continue
cause visibility issues, mainly near and south of Interstate 70
through mid morning. Blend PoPs look good with likely over the far
southern counties tapering to slight chance for the far northwestern
ones. Should see some afternoon sunshine over the northwestern half
as the front continues to move away.

Cold air advection should put a lid on temperatures this afternoon
despite some breaks in the clouds. The blend looks to handle this ok
with highs in the upper 40s to the middle 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

The cold will be the main theme through the short term as surface
high pressure gradually builds in from the west.

Model time sections and layered rh progs suggest there will be a
good degree of clearing tonight from northwest to southeast. In
addition, winds will drop off to 5 mph or less overnight. This
should allow strong radiational cooling and temperatures to fall to
near or below freezing toward daybreak per the blend. High
confidence there will be widespread frost and thus will issue a
Frost Advisory from 5 to 9 AM Tuesday.

There is another threat for a freeze and widespread frost Wednesday
night as a dry re-enforcing front moves through as the high settles
over the Ohio Valley allowing for ideal radiational cooling.
Otherwise, look for little cloud cover and below normal highs in the
lower and middle 50s per the blend.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...

Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Mainly Dry and cool weather is expected this period...except for
Friday.

ECMWF shows moderate ridging in place aloft over Indiana on
Thursday as Surface High pressure firmly in place over the Ohio
Valley. This should lead to a continuation of the dry weather
through the middle of the week. On Friday the ECMWF suggests a
short wave and associated cold front pushing toward the Ohio
Valley from the northern plains. Strong Dynamics and decent
moisture should be able to generate...at minimum...light precip
amounts on Friday and Friday night as these features pass. Have
kept forecast builder pops at those spots.

The ECMWF then suggests troughing along along with broad cyclonic
flow in place across the area on Saturday. For now have kept
Saturday dry as a lack of moisture will cause problems for precip
development. Caveat here is that cyclonic flow and upper flow
could lead to some instability showers. Stay Tuned. High pressure
and ridging aloft arrives on Sunday. Trended toward dry weather at
that time.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 152100Z IND Taf Update/...

IFR/LIFR conditions are expected the next several hours. Low
clouds and light rain showers are expected to persist the next
several hours as a poorly organized cold front moves across the
state.

Previous Discussion Below

(Discussion for the 150600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1138 PM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Poor flying conditions expected into Monday morning, then a gradual
improvement to VFR through the day.

IFR conditions should continue at all but KLAF overnight. KLAF
should just dip into MVFR. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR
during the daylight hours Monday as drier air moves in behind a
front.

Fog will continue for KIND/KBMG overnight, with perhaps KHUF seeing
some fog as well. Overnight some patchy light rain will move in and
will persist into Monday morning.

Winds will be variable overnight, but become northwest on Monday and
increase to 10-15kt.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...50
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