FXUS63 KIND 042223
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
523 PM EST THU DEC 4 2008

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 05/00Z TAFS

AREA OF MVFR/VFR CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT THE START OF
THE PD. LAF LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR BASED UPON UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS...BUT OTHER SITES WILL BE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET HIGHER
/BUT IN VFR CATEGORY/. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AT LAF/IND...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE AT HUF/BMG AROUND 04Z
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN THERE.

FRI LOOKS VFR AS LOW CIGS EXIT THE AREA TO THE E EARLY IN THE DAY.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COLD COLD COLD FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES RESULTING IN A COLD
NW FLOW OVER INDIANA. A FEW INSTABILITY CLOUDS WERE SEEN OVER NW
ILLINOIS AND EASTERN IOWA. MAIN ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL
BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES.

TONIGHT...MODELS HOLD ONTO QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MOISTURE...MOSTLY IN
THE 900-850MB LEVEL...TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SAME ALONG
WITH SOME LLVL OMEGA IN THE SATURATED LAYER. THAT SAID IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WONT BE TOTALLY CLEAR OF CLOUDS TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH
PCLDY-MOCLOUDY FOR NOW AS ALL MOS ALSO CARRIES A BKN-OVC DECK
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH AT DIFFERENT HEIGHTS BUT THE RESULT WILL BE THE
SAME ON TEMPS. WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL GO BETWEEN MAV/MET
NUMS FOR LOWS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST...CENTRAL INDIANA
WILL END UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AFTER 00Z. THIS WARMING
WILL KEEP LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT
READINGS. SINCE THIS WARM ADVECTION DOESNT REALLY BEGIN UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET DAYTIME HIGHS LIKELY WONT GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL INDIANA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE SLOWER PRECIP TIMING OF THE NAM FOR
THIS SYSTEM. WILL HAVE SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO A LATER START TO
SNOW SEEMS TO FIT BETTER. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WITH CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST WHERE I LEFT A SCHANCE POP. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL HOVER
AROUND AN INCH IN THE LIKELY POP AREAS WITH AROUND A HALF INCH UP TO
AN INCH ELSEWHERE. ATMOSPHERE IS DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW SO PRECIP TYPE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

EXTENDED FORECAST...SUNDAY TIL THURSDAY...COLD PATTERN HOLDS IN
PLACE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON TUESDAY ANOTHER
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EMERGES AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM TROF
TAKES SHAPE OVER WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING SOME MODERATION BACK
TO TEMPERATURES...PUSHING HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
FOR TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. AS WITH MOST SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT THE ECMWF/GFS
DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SUCH DISAGREEMENT IN POSITION
AND SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY I STUCK WITH A RA/SN MIX
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE
STATE A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...CS


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