FXUS63 KIND 160514
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 AM EDT TUE MAR 16 2010


AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CEILINGS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO CLIMB TO ABOVE 3KT
FT AS EVIDENCED BY OBS AT KIND AND KLAF. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE AS CURRENT IR SATELLITE SHOWS A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM N TO
S. NOT PLANNING ON MAKING TOO MANY CHANGES TO CURRENT TRENDS IN THE
TAFS AS FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING BY EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.UPDATE...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING GRADUAL CLEARING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SO...DECREASED SKY GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WARNING AREA TO INCORPORATE THIS TREND.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND CURRENT OBS HAVE BEEN
INSERTED. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM EDT MON MAR 15 2010/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM EDT MON MAR 15 2010/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT 18Z LARGE UPPER LOW WAS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE USA.
CLOUDS CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...BUT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD SKIES WERE BEGINNING TO CLEAR
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO WENT WITH A
BLEND.

CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...ALLOWING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH THE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND A WHILE...WENT WITH THE WARMER MOS
NUMBERS MOST AREAS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

ON TUESDAY A THERMAL TROUGH WILL WORK ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...BUT BELIEVE
THAT PARTLY CLOUDY WILL COVER THE DAY OVERALL. FOR HIGHS...WENT WITH
THE WARMER MOS WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED...AND CLOSER TO THE COOLER
MOS WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE.

EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS SEEN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON THE EDGE OF INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DURING THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER ON
FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. AT THE MOMENT PREFER
THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOWS
SEPARATE SINCE GFS HAS A TENDENCY TO MERGE THE STREAMS TOO EASILY.
THIS KEEPS CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF POPS HAD TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT CREATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PUT IN YET. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE COOL AND DRY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SMF/JH
UPDATE...TDUD





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