FXUS63 KIWX 171051

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
651 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Issued at 639 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Scattered to numerous rain showers will continue early this
morning along and south of US 24, mainly for locations east of
Interstate 69. Rain may be heavy at times. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms dwindle through Wednesday, with highs reaching
into the upper 80s. Blistering heat is expected Thursday into the
weekend, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, and heat
indices above 100 degrees.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 408 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

An MCV (convective system) was moving northeast into northeast
Indiana and northwest Ohio. Low topped warm cloud convection was
really able to generate precipitation efficiently with 2 to 3
inches of rain in less than an hour in an environment of
precipitable water values of over 2 inches. Have issued 3 flood
advisories along the heavy rain axis back to Marion where the
greatest likelihood of flooding was taking place. Flood issues
should abate this morning as the remnants of Hurricane Barry move
east and the chances for organized convection diminish.
Otherwise, temperatures will climb back toward 90 today as heat
indices rise well above 90 degrees.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 408 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Hot and humid conditions are ahead Thursday into the weekend as an
upper level ridge builds into the region. After coordination with
neighboring offices, have issued an excessive heat watch for
Thursday afternoon through Saturday evening for heat indices
between 105 and 110 degrees. Otherwise, thunderstorms are possible
Thursday and again this weekend as a cold front approaches. Highs
should still near 90 Sunday, but will fall to near 80 by Tuesday
as a cooler and drier period prevails.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Both sites are currently surrounded by IFR/LIFR conditions, and
though KFWA dropped briefly to 400 ft ceilings with rain showers,
the terminals have remained largely MVFR to even VFR at times.
Most of the guidance suggests MVFR/high-end IFR conditions at the
terminals through the early morning, with the best chances for
IFR at KFWA. Can't rule this out given the surrounding
observations, so have kept the potential for lower
ceilings/visibilities in at both sites through 15z.


IN...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
evening for INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
evening for MIZ077>081.

OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
evening for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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