FXUS63 KIWX 232230

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
630 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Issued at 318 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Cool weather can be expected into early next week with highs from
the mid 40s to lower 50s. Lows will be in the upper 20s to near
30 tonight and Wednesday night, and then near 40 the next several
nights as cloud cover increases. Light rain or drizzle is
possible from Friday into Monday, although amounts will be light.
Most of the time it will be dry.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Winds were gradually becoming more north over the forecast area
behind a cold front that moved through last night and early today.
Temperatures have been able to rise to 50 or higher over all areas
this afternoon as diurnal warming has just been able to offset
cold air advection. Lake Michigan moisture flux has been able to
aid in post frontal cloud development, although large scale
subsidence was increasing and was helping to limit cloud over
over the lake later by mid afternoon. A sprinkle is possible, but
have kept rain out due to the shallow cloud depth. Winds will back
to the northeast by early Wednesday over most areas as a ridge of
high pressure builds into the region. This will set the stage for
2 cold nights ahead with temperatures dipping below freezing from
a few to several degrees with light winds, clear to mostly clear
skies and a dry airmass. Our office has ended frost and freeze
headlines earlier, so these will not be issued this package.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

The cool pattern will persist through the weekend as a large upper
level trof continues to amplify over much of eastern North
America. Subsequent smaller shortwave trofs will move through the
main trof and provide chances for light rain at times from Friday
through Monday. Timing of these smaller systems was certainly a
challenge and have opted to limit the higher rain chances of the
model blend. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light and should
remain below 0.20 inch as model concensus and CIPS analogs tracks
the main weather system south of the Ohio River. Temperatures
should stay above freezing Friday night through Sunday night given
widespread cloudiness.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Broad sfc anti-cyclone will build back in across the srn lakes this
period with continued VFR.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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