FXUS63 KIWX 250527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
127 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Issued at 118 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Areas of light drizzle will be possible through the overnight
hours but should diminish before sunrise. Otherwise it will be
mostly cloudy early before skies begin to clear through the
morning hours. It will be cool but dry today with highs ranging
from the upper 40s near lake Michigan to the lower 60s over
eastern Indiana and northwest Ohio. The rest of the week through
the weekend will feature mainly dry conditions and temperatures
averaging a little below normal for late April. This changes early
next week as southwesterly winds usher in much warmer air and
temperatures likely well into the 70s and possibly even flirting
with the 80s.


Issued at 742 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Previous forecast is in good shape this evening. Bulk of remaining
light rain/sprinkles/drizzle should stay across mainly eastern
half of the area as low/mid level deformation zone slowly creeps
eastward overnight. SREF and some higher res guidance continue to
indicate some fog potential across the far southeast. With
gradually strengthening low level flow late tonight into early
Wednesday will continue to trend more toward stratus/non-
mentionable fog scenario at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A mid-upper level low over the TN Valley will meander/open east
toward the Central Appalachians tonight, while a northern stream
shortwave translates southeast into the Great Lakes region later
tonight/Wed AM. Moisture transport into a 850 mb trough axis, north
of the TN Valley system, should clip areas east of I-69 with a
period of light rain later this afternoon/evening. A few areas of
light rain/drizzle will also be possible to the west during this
time, especially north of US 6 where some weak upper divergence/mid
lvl pva overspreads. Cloudy/cool otherwise into tonight.

Negative low-mid level theta-e advection in the wake of a cold front
will bring an end to light rain/drizzle chances and clearing skies
on Wednesday. Cool northerly flow off Lake MI will make for a
cooler day (mid 40s to mid 50s) into far nw IN/sw Lower MI, while
partial clearing and deeper mixing likely allows highs to make a
run at 60F elsewhere.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Broad upper troughing over the Eastern US will keep temperatures a
little below normal Thursday through the upcoming weekend. A couple
of moisture starved/weak cold fronts will move through, one Friday
and another early Saturday. The Friday front could generate a few
showers, though chances remain low (20-30%) as better moisture
convergence bypasses south-southeast with another upper system
tracking through the TN Valley. Dry otherwise with high pressure in
control Thursday through Sunday.

Early next week will feature a significant warming trend and more
dry wx as positive height anomalies overspread in advance of a
Western US trough. Low level southwest flow on the backside of sfc
high pressure may allow highs to reach near 80F by Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

IFR to MVFR CIGS to contend with through daybreak or shortly after
before VFR conditions return. Satellite/Sfc Obs show KSBN has
actually already become VFR to start this package but upstream obs
to the north suggest a period of MVFR CIGS possible for a few
more hours before skies really begin to clear likely before
sunrise. KFWA IFR to begin and likely will be there for several
more hours, though some breaks to west suggest bases could rise to
MVFR before sunrise but guidance suggest later so stayed with
previous timing for consistency. VFR expected by mid morning as
lower levels dry out and subsidence wins battle and skies clear.
Winds will become a bit gusty mid morning with clearing. Winds
should diminish toward sunset this evening.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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