FXUS63 KIWX 161811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
111 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Issued at 100 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected tonight. A cold front
will drop across the region late tonight into early Monday
bringing cooler conditions for Monday with highs from 35 to 40. A
quiet weather pattern will be in store for tonight through
Wednesday. A storm system will bring good chances of rainfall from
late Wednesday night through Friday, with snow likely mixing in on
Friday before precipitation tapers Friday evening. High temperatures
will warm into the mid and upper 40s by Thursday, but cool down
back into the 30s behind this system for next weekend.


Issued at 1017 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Freezing fog advisory continues for southern Lower Michigan
counties this morning. Visible satellite imagery suggests that fog
has halted southward expanse, with some pockets of dense fog
having reached as far south as far northern Steuben county in
northern Indiana. AMDAR data depicts very shallow nature to this
moisture, but time of year/poor mixing have resulted in
maintenance of 1/4 mile or less vsbys. Expecting vsbys to begin to
improve in the 1600-1630Z timeframe, and it is possible a brief
extension in time may be needed for portions of the ongoing
advisory. Will monitor trends over the next hour. Additional
pockets of fog may work into far western portions of the area, but
should be in diminishing trend through early afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Rain in the outer deformation band has been decreasing as moisture
flux/inflow north of the Ohio River has been getting cut off due
to development further east. Light rain and patchy drizzle will
end early this morning, leaving decreasing clouds and pleasant
weather for this time of year through Wednesday. Weak ridging will
increase over the Ohio Valley and Upper Great Lakes regions early
this week and help keep conditions dry through Wednesday.
Temperatures should be near normal from 35 to around 45. No
significant weather or storms are expected during this time.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

A more unsettled pattern will follow by late this coming week as
an upper level trof really amplifies over central North America.
This system will have plenty of energy available, although
initially available cold air will be limited. Latest model
sounding support a mainly rain event Thursday and Thursday night
with rain mixing with snow Friday afternoon as the system lifts
northeast. At this time, significant travel issues are not
expected, although some roads may become slippery late Friday
night as colder air spreads across the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Skies have cleared across much of northern Indiana, and VFR
conditions should persist through the remainder of this forecast
valid period. The bulk of the fog and stratus has been confined to
southern Lower Michigan earlier today. Some possibility does exist
for redevelopment of patchy fog this evening, but this would
likely remain well northeast of the terminals across south
central/southeast Lower Michigan. A cold front will track across
the region late tonight bringing a subtle wind shift to the
northwest, with winds in the 10 to 15 knot range for Monday via
better mixing. This mixed layer should also promote sct-bkn VFR
low clouds on Monday.


MI...Freezing Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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