FXUS63 KIWX 161740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
140 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Issued at 424 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Showers and a rumble of thunder at times can be expected through
Friday night as a weak upper level system lingers over the area.
Some ridging aloft will help clear things out for the weekend
bringing mostly sunny skies. Highs should be around 80 to 85 each
day through Sunday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 414 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

A weak upper level system will linger over the area through late
Friday. Showers and a rumble of thunder at times can be expected.
This system has been very efficient producing rainfall with
relatively weak showers given the warm cloud depth overnight
approaching 14,000 feet and precipitable water values around 1.75
inches. The Fort Wayne airport has received nearly an inch of
rain overnight. The convective allowing cloud models favor most
activity east of Interstate 69 today. However, given current
observations and trends, have made adjustment for the band of
heavier showers moving north over northern Indiana overnight. The
potential for heavy rainfall exists; however, runoff will be
limited given advanced vegetation, so at this time flooding is not
expected (except for possible locally heavy rainfall).


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 414 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Weak upper level ridging will bring a break this weekend from the
wet weather with mostly sunny skies and highs from around 80 to
85. A pair of upper level systems will bring the chance for more
showers and storms Monday and Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

A low pressure system edges slowly to the northeast into MI with
a shortwave moving in from the southwest supplying forcing for
more showers this afternoon. FWA has a better chance for scattered
showers than SBN with better jet dynamics, elevated instability
and moisture content. With the elevated instability in mind, some
thunderstorms are also possible near FWA, but not enough to
warrant a TSRA inclusion at this time. Will handle that with
future amendments.

As we head toward the afternoon, expect a lifting of flight
conditions to VFR, but then expect them to fall back down into
MVFR and possibly IFR with lighter winds and ample surface
moisture especially after 7z tonight.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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