FXUS63 KIWX 180550

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1250 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Issued at 700 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

An upper level system will spread snow across the area into early
tonight. Areas of freezing drizzle, especially south of Highway
30 will make roads extremely slick at times tonight. Snow amounts
will be up to 2 inches, along and north of Route 6 with lesser
amounts south. Lows tonight will be in the upper teens to lower
20s with highs Monday from 25 to 30. Another system will bring a
wintry mix late Tuesday night through midday Wednesday.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

The dry slot was translating across the area as meso CSI bands
were trying to get going from near the IL/IN border to northwest
Indiana. HRRR/RUC still favoring intensifying bands this afternoon
whereas the GFS was really inhibited. Favor the HRRR and RUC which
appears to have somewhat of a handle on this activity. Patchy
freezing drizzle will persist into this evening in basically
shallow cloud layers where ice is not present. Have trimmed snow
amounts back just a little given the recent model, radar and
surface obs and trends. It looks like snow amounts will be around
a trace with a light ice coating south and southwest of Fort Wayne
to 2 inches north near the Michigan border locally 3 inches or
higher in the bands.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

The overall upper air pattern should modify by this weekend as the
bulk of the energy begins to eject east. In the interim, smaller
scale upper trofs will eject out of the large dominant upper trof
and may be able to tap some moisture for snow by the middle of
this week. Thermal profiles have trended toward more of a shallow
cold layer with a better chance for freezing rain as temperatures
linger below freezing Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Much
heavier rain should stay well south of the region where flooding
rains are eventually likely. Temperatures should moderate by late
in the week with highs around 40 to 45 from Friday through Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1250 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Light snow will continue through the early morning as low level
trough pivots through the area in wake of exiting low. Still some
low chance for freezing drizzle at KFWA in the next few hours but
temps aloft continue to drop and will support better ice
nucleation as steadier precip drops south. KSBN resides on edge of
better low level moisture and ceilings could bounce around quite a
bit through the early morning. Should climb above fuel alternate
at both terminals by late morning with some late day clearing
possible as drier air is slowly advected into the area.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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