FXUS64 KJAN 182014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
314 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019


Tonight and Sunday:

Another quiet and cool night is expected across the region
tonight. High clouds will hang on across a good portion of the CWA
through much of the night. However, they'll gradually lessen
towards day break as the disturbance responsible for them shifts
further east across the Gulf of Mexico. Look for lows tonight to
range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

High pressure will remain wedged into the region from the northeast
on Tuesday. This will again result in quiet conditions across the
area under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be a couple of
degrees cooler Tuesday afternoon, compared to today. This is as a
result of cold advection from the northeast that'll reside over the
region through the day. /19/

Tuesday night through next Sunday:

Tuesday night: Expect the pattern to remain quiet through most of
the extended period, other than a brief chance of rain around mid
week or so. At the start, psuedo-zonal flow with slightly northwest
winds will be situated over the area with surface ridging extending
down through the Ohio Valley to Appalachians & into the ArkLaMiss.
Due to light winds & very light gradient, we should be able to
radiate well into the mid-upper 30s, especially for areas along &
east of the I-55 corridor. Due to that, decided to at least
introduce some patchy frost in the weather grids but wanted to hold
off at least another package or so to confirm mention of it in the
HWO & graphics.

Wednesday-Wednesday night: A shortwave trough will dive down into
Wednesday night, with some increasing low-level thermal warming out
ahead Wednesday. This will lead to gradual increase in highs &
moisture late into Wednesday afternoon & through daybreak. Due to
this, some increasing isentropic rain & showers are possible,
especially north of I-20 into Wednesday evening & before midnight.
Right now, low-level southerly return flow will not be evident, so
only expect increasing clouds & light rain showers & no thunder.

Rest of week-weekend (Thursday-Sunday): In the wake of this
shortwave trough & weak cold front by mid-late week, expect low-
level ridging building into the area. Due to this, expect drier
conditions with increasing thermal warmth & highs warming up near
normal into the weekend, especially across the southern half of
the area.

As another lead shortwave trough digs into southern Plains into the
weekend, this will help gradual increasing southerly return flow.
This increasing isentropic lift will help clouds to increase from
west-east on Saturday, with the best rain & gradual storm chances
more into Sunday & after the period. Timing details remain
somewhat unclear, with some global consensus a little more
amplified & more robust into early next week. Right now, expect
rain & some storm chances to slowly increase upward, especially
late weekend & into early next week. /DC/


18Z TAF discussion:
With some high clouds overhead, VFR flight categories will prevail
at all TAF sites through the forecast period. Winds today will be
from the northeast from 7-10 knots, subsiding to 3-5 knots this
evening and overnight. /19/


Jackson 38 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 2
Meridian 37 63 36 68 / 0 0 0 1
Vicksburg 41 63 39 66 / 0 0 0 3
Hattiesburg 40 66 37 70 / 0 0 0 1
Natchez 43 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 1
Greenville 38 60 39 64 / 0 0 0 17
Greenwood 36 61 38 65 / 0 0 0 13





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