FXUS64 KJAN 141630
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1118 AM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. A FEW
SLIGHT TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS BUT NONE MADE TO THE AFTERNOON
HIGH FORECAST. ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN EXTREME
NERN ZONES AS A WEAK WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. RADAR PIX SHOW
VERY LIGHT RETURNS INTO NERN MS...MOST OF WHICH SHOULD BE CLOUD
COVER...BUT WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT DROPS FROM
THICKENING CLOUD COVER. FORECAST CURRENTLY ON TRACK WITH INCREASING
CLOUD DECK FROM THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY FOR NRN ZONES...AS THE WAVE
DROPS THIS WAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...403 AM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010 TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH FURTHER EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TODAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE SPINNING OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...CLOUDS WON'T BE AS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THEY
WERE ON SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE ACROSS
MY NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN
MY SOUTH. JUST AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES EXIST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH AS
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR 70 ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

SUSTAIN WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN TODAY. THEY'LL BLOW FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING
AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED WEAK
DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY TO EVENTUALLY
NORTHWESTERLY LATE. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TO BETWEEN 5-10 MPH.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S.

A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SCARCE DURING
THIS TIME AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY RELINQUISHES IT'S GRIP ON THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL AGAIN REFLECT THIS AS THEY
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE IT'LL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LOWS
MONDAY WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AS THEY ONLY
FALL INTO THE MID AND LOWER 40S. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE THEME OF THE MED RANGE CONTINUES
TO BE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO READINGS DURING THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE A POTENT UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
MID WEEK THEN HAVE A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH AROUND SAT AND BRING SOME PRECIP CHANCES.

OVERALL...MODEL GUID IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAN USUAL ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRIMARY WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE BIG
PLAYER IN HOW TEMPS WILL WORK OUT WILL BE CLOUD COVER FOR THE
TUE-THU PERIODS. FOR TUE...CAA WILL STILL BE OCCURRING...BUT WEAKER
AND SOMEWHAT STEADY STATE. HOWEVER...COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE REGION AS WE SEE A SMALLISH UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY
OVER THE 4 CORNERS) GET ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE LIFT ALOFT AND HELP TO GENERATE A BIT MORE
CLOUDS. COMBINE THAT WITH A PRETTY SOLID STRATO CU DECK DEVELOPING
IN THAT WEAK CAA REGIME. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THE GFS REPRESENTS THIS WELL AND I HAVE STAYED WITH THAT
COOLER GUID.

CLOUDS WILL ONLY THICKEN AS WE HEAD INTO WED AND INTO WED NIGHT AS A
MORE POTENT UPPER LOW EVOLVES AND DIVE SSE THROUGH THE MS RIVER
VALLY. AS THE COLD CORE ALOFT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH THE
CWA...ASCENT WILL INCREASE AND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. GUID HAS NOW OFFERED 20%
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WED/WED NIGHT AND I WILL FOLLOW SUIT. TEMPS
ON WED WILL ALSO NOT MOVE MUCH. I ACTUALLY WARMED WED LOWS AS I CAN
SEE READINGS NOT DROPPING TOO MUCH DUE TO CLOUDS/WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE SMALL FOR THE SAME
REASONS...AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SOME. I CAN ACTUALLY SEE COOLER
TEMPS AND I MAY REVISIT AFTER I CAN REVIEW SOME ENSEMBLE MOS WHICH
HAS BEEN DELAYED LIKELY DUE TO THE TIME CHANGE.

BY THU...WE WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENT UPPER LOW AND OUR CWA
WILL QUICKLY BE LOCATED IN THE SUBSIDENT REGION OF THIS FEATURE.
LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO ERODE BY AFTERNOON AND TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID
60S. GUID APPEARED TO BE TOO COOL ACROSS THE W ON THU AND I WARMED
VALUES. LOOK FOR FRI TO START OFF CHILLY WITH SOME UPPER 30S
AROUND...BUT WARM QUICKLY AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES.

OUR NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE CWA ON SAT. THE GFS HAS SLOWED A
BIT TOWARD THE EURO. THE EURO IS STILL ON TRACK WITH ITS PREV TIMING
AND HAS A QUICK MOVING PRECIP BAND JUST BEHIND A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS THE SLOWER EURO AND I HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING POPS ACROSS THE E PART OF THE CWA
FRI NIGHT...WITH THE PRIMARY PRECIP TIME ON SAT. THE EURO HAS A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT FOR SUN AND I HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS FROM THE GFS TO SOMETHING MORE IN LINE WITH THE EURO. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY MON
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIG MAY OCCUR AT GTR ONCE AGAIN MON MORNING AS LOW
PRES TO THE N CONTINUES FEEDING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. W TO NW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTN...BECOMING LIGHT THIS
EVENING. /BK/

&&


.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/CME
03/BK





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