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FXUS64 KJAN 171725
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1125 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

...DANGEROUS COLD CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast
period. Winds will be out of the north with gusts up to 20kts
possible at GTR/MEI/HBG. Winds will become calm at all locations
tonight. /TW/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies prevail across the region as the surface ridge axis
begins to shift across the forecast area. After getting off a to
record cold start, temps are still in the teens in most locations.
Despite full sunshine, snow cover across the area will be a drag
on temperatures through the day - particularly in those locations
that received higher amounts. Bumped forecast temps down a touch
based on latest short term guidance. Otherwise, no adjustments are
planned at this time. /DL/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight:

By local standards, the cold is just brutal this morning with wind
chills below zero in many areas with actual air temperatures in
the single digits advancing south through northern zones (across
at least light snow cover) and toward the I-20 corridor.
Locations such as Jackson MS have not seen a single digit
temperature reading since Christmas Eve of 1989, to give an idea
of the rareness of this level of cold. Of course Jackson has not
officially "gained" the single digits yet, but we are watching
the ob closely to say the least.

North winds are still blowing from 5 to 15 mph this morning with
occasional sporadic gusts to 20 mph making for a solid meeting of
wind chill advisory criteria. Actually have gotten close to
extremely rare wind chill warning criteria (-10F or less) in a
few spots, but an advisory will suffice for the whole area through
noon. Thereafter, expect continuing north winds to offer only a
slightly lessening bite through the day with high temperatures
ranging from the mid to upper 20s in northern zones to a range of
30 to 34 degrees in southern zones, despite plenty of sunshine.
Any southern areas that do manage to get above freezing will only
do so for maybe an hour; not enough to even think of dropping the
hard freeze warning that continues today through tonight in all
areas. Varying degrees of snow cover exist through the CWA this
morning with some spots in the Pine Belt surprisingly getting a
late burst of evening snow yesterday to give up to a few inches.
Expect the sun will melt some of the snow through the day even
though temperatures will be almost entirely below freezing.

Tonight, the modifying Arctic high will be sitting atop the Lower
Mississippi Valley and will allow winds to go light in the late
afternoon to early evening. Skies will be clear and those light
winds and continued very dry air mass should allow for good
radiational cooling, especially where any snow cover survives the
sunshine today. Lows by dawn Thursday should range from 10 to 15
degrees in all areas with isolated pockets of single digits
certainly possible in typically colder spots. Fortunately, the
light winds tonight will keep wind chill from being much of a
factor so no wind chill advisory will be necessary. /BB/

Thursday through next Tuesday:

Overall conditions will moderate up Thursday afternoon through
the upcoming weekend, thanks to the flow across the region
becoming more westerly, and eventually southerly. However,
Thursday will start off rather chilly as temperatures begin the
day in the teens areawide. Conditions will warm through morning
under sunny skies, with most locales climbing above the freezing
mark by noon. Thus, the ongoing Hard Freeze Warning will likely be
allowed to expire at its current expiration time of noon
Thursday. From there, the warming will continue as highs generally
range from the upper 30s to middle 40s Thursday afternoon.
However Thursday night, under clear skies and light to calm winds,
lows will plummet and range from the upper teens to the lower
20s.

Again, warmer and overall quiet conditions currently look to persist
Friday and through much of the upcoming weekend. Highs during this
time will steadily climb from the upper 40s and middle 50s of
Friday, into the low 60s and lower 70s on Sunday. Lows meanwhile
will also follow suit as they climb from the low to upper 30s
Saturday morning, into the mid 40s and 50s Sunday morning.

Clouds will gradually increase throughout the afternoon on Sunday,
with rain chances also increasing from west to east across the
ArkLaMiss late afternoon and overnight Sunday into early Monday
morning. This will be as a result of a fast-moving cold front
racing west to east through the CWA during this time. Some
thunderstorms will accompany this front. While deep wind shear
currently looks adequate with the system, instability looks too
meager at the moment to have enough confidence in any severe storms.
This is still several days out, and will continue to be monitored.

The cold front looks to exit the region through the course of the
morning on Monday. High pressure will quickly build into the CWA in
its wake. This will result in clearing skies Monday and Tuesday.
Highs both days will generally range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Lows currently look to range in the low to upper 30s. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 30 14 43 21 / 0 0 0 0
Meridian 31 13 43 20 / 0 0 0 0
Vicksburg 29 12 40 21 / 0 0 0 0
Hattiesburg 33 14 45 21 / 0 0 0 0
Natchez 30 13 42 22 / 0 0 0 0
Greenville 25 14 37 21 / 0 0 0 0
Greenwood 27 12 39 21 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Hard Freeze Warning until noon CST Thursday for MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.

LA...Hard Freeze Warning until noon CST Thursday for LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.

AR...Hard Freeze Warning until noon CST Thursday for ARZ074-075.

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ074-075.


&&


$$

TW/19/DL/BB
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