FXUS64 KJAN 260546 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1246 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Updated for 06Z aviation discussion.



06Z TAF discussion:

VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through the period. Light
northeasterly winds will redevelop after 12Z Monday, and some
mid clouds with bases above 10K feet will begin to move into the
region. /NF/


Expect pleasant conditions overnight as cool dry air continues
filtering into the area. Lows will be in the low 60s for most
locations, with some areas falling into the upper 50s. The
current forecast is in good shape with no changes needed. /27/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and Monday: The next 24hrs will be rather quiet and on
the cooler side for late June standards. Look for the decreasing
cloud trend to continue from late afternoon into the evening. This
will work in tandem with the cooler/drier air filtering through
the forecast area behind the cool front. These conditions will
support a cool night across the region with some locals reaching
the upper 50s with other sites seeing lows in the 60-64 degree
range. For Monday, look for another day with below average highs
despite full sunshine. Typically we would expect temps to
overachieve, but thanks to wet soil conditions, readings are
likely to get held in check more. Look for highs to range from
85-88 degrees. /CME/

Monday night through Saturday: Models similar to yesterday in that
mid level troughiness in the east early in the period will support a
surface high pressure ridge over the mid to lower MS valley region.
Flow around the high pressure area will keep winds easterly over the
forecast area, continue the abnormally dry airmass and maintain the
baroclinic zone along the coast. So, basically just a temperature
forecast through Wednesday. The dryness of the airmass will provide
broad diurnal ranges through the first half of the week as overnight
lows will be able to drop well into the 60s and efficient warming
during the day sending maximum temperatures near 90.

By mid week, a more zonal mid level flow will allow the surface
high pressure to skirt far enough east for flow to become more
southerly once again with a return of the muggy airmass. Diurnal
convection will begin popping as well with a weak mid level shear
axis draped over the region.

A gradual troughiness over the mid MS valley by the end of the
week will bring a decent shortwave into the area Saturday.
Associated convection may have some microburst potential
according to local microburst composite parameter. Will need to
watch to see how this pans out with time./26/


Jackson 65 89 68 89 / 5 13 3 19
Meridian 62 88 66 88 / 5 9 3 17
Vicksburg 64 89 68 89 / 5 14 2 17
Hattiesburg 65 90 68 89 / 6 21 5 33
Natchez 66 87 68 88 / 6 20 5 29
Greenville 65 89 68 89 / 4 10 2 9
Greenwood 63 88 67 89 / 3 8 2 11





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