FXUS64 KJAN 202100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
400 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

Tonight and Friday: Upper ridging is still hanging on over our
region but will continue to shift east through tomorrow. A few
showers have developed across the area but these should dissipate
through the evening. As this upper ridge becomes more established
across the eastern United States and the Atlantic Ocean, a front
will try to drop down into our region tomorrow but remain just to
our north. This will help initiate afternoon showers and storms in
the northern part of the forecast area when combined with daytime
heating. Above normal temperatures will continue through the end
of the week. /28/

Friday night through Wednesday: Come Friday evening our CWA will
still be under the influence of ridging surface and aloft across
the Gulf coast states from the east but in a weakened state. This
ridging surface and aloft will continue to weaken further as a
shortwave over the Southern Plains moves over a stalling cold
front to our northwest. A very moist airmass with PWATs in excess
of two inches will reside over the northwest half of our CWA and
combine with daytime heating Saturday and the previously
mentioned features to result in decent rain chances over our
northwest while coverage of storms is expected to be more
scattered over the southeast half of our CWA. The shortwave will
shift northeast of our CWA Sunday but the stalled front will
remain in proximity of our northwest zones through Sunday before
dissipating. Afternoon highs will be held closer to normal over
our northwest zones Saturday and Sunday but morning lows and
afternoon highs will continue above normal for most of our CWA.
Upper level troughing will deepen over the western CONUS Monday
while ridging continues over the southeast CONUS. Our CWA wl be
under a deep southeast flow leading to mostly diurnal rain
chances Monday and Tuesday with greatest rain chances over our
southeast zones each day. The upper level troughing will swing
east through the middle of the week and by Wednesday model
consensus has a stronger cold front dropping into our CWA. Models
differ on whether or not this cold front will move through our
CWA or stall across it. Either way, rain chances and cooler
temperatures are expected by mid week. /22/


18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are expected today and tonight. Isolated
showers/storms may be possible at KHBG/KPIB this afternoon but
should diminish this evening. Some MVFR ceilings/vis may also be
possible prior to daybreak tomorrow at KHBG/KPIB. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to continue. /28/


Jackson 73 92 71 91 / 9 18 12 35
Meridian 72 93 71 91 / 8 21 8 24
Vicksburg 73 94 72 92 / 7 31 18 41
Hattiesburg 73 92 71 92 / 12 26 15 42
Natchez 73 91 72 90 / 12 31 18 40
Greenville 72 92 71 87 / 6 30 34 63
Greenwood 73 92 71 89 / 6 22 23 58





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