FXUS64 KJAN 232331 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
631 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Updated for 00Z aviation discussion


00Z TAF discussion:

Currently all VFR across the forecast area with somewhat gusty
south to southwest surface winds. This winds will decrease a bit
through the night but still expect most areas will experience
southerly surface winds of 10 mph or more through the night before
increasing again by 9 or 10 am tomorrow morning. Midday through
the afternoon hours tomorrow these winds from the south could
gust up to 30 mph at times. Lower clouds are expected to build in
later tonight into tomorrow morning and with MVFR flight cats due
to ceilings anticipated at most sites (maybe lasting through much
of the day tomorrow at GLH/GWO while perhaps never getting below
VFR at all at PIB/HBG). In addition, there will be some isolated
showers around northern zones from daybreak through the afternoon
although thunderstorms are not expected and rainfall will not be
heavy. /BB/



Tonight and Saturday:

As the trough off to the north through the mid-Mississippi Valley
propagates to the east and the mid-level ridging slowly builds in
overnight, expect the surface low to move to the east over Missouri
and lifting warm front to lift into the Appalachians. This will
continue to feed warmer and more moist air (PWs ~1 inch) into the
region, which will help low-mid level clouds to increase from the
west overnight. With the surface low to the north, southerly return
flow will continue, helping dewpoints continually climb into the mid-
upper 50s. This will help lows be considerably warmer (~10-15
degrees above normal) in the mid-upper 50s in the east to low 60s in
the west.

As the surface low moves into the mid-South on Saturday, expect
widespread clouds covering the region. Regardless, with enough of a
pressure gradient and warming, we should be able reach the upper 70s
to possibly low 80s, especially if any clouds can clear out some.
Winds could gust as high as 20-25mph or so, with some of the higher
gusts in the Delta. Will have to keep an eye on possibly gusty
enough winds in the Delta for the HWO, but doesn't look widespread
enough to put anything in the HWO. As better moisture moves in,
expect there to be enough lift and surface convergence, especially
in the Highway 82 corridor, for some showers to develop. However,
due to strong subsidence/capping and any instability well above the
strong inversion, thinking thunder will probably not be likely on
Saturday. Expect most of these rain showers to stay in the Delta but
couldn't rule out some sneaking down towards the I-20 corridor. /DC/


Jackson 57 82 62 78 / 3 4 17 19
Meridian 56 82 62 77 / 3 6 15 27
Vicksburg 59 82 62 79 / 4 8 19 20
Hattiesburg 56 83 62 83 / 3 5 7 13
Natchez 60 83 63 80 / 4 5 12 15
Greenville 59 78 56 73 / 10 26 24 20
Greenwood 59 78 57 74 / 7 31 29 20





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