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FXUS64 KJAN 152118
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
418 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Through Sunday:

Isolated to scattered storms have begun to develop and spread
across the area this afternoon, with the greatest coverage across
central LA and south MS. Wind shear is rather weak, but high
instability may allow a few storms to get on the strong side
through sunset. Storms should die off shortly thereafter, with
generally dry conditions overnight. As low level moist advection
continues overnight, low cloudiness will develop across much of
the region. With winds staying up in most areas, fog development
is not anticipated.

For Sunday there are a couple of potential storm modes to watch.
Once again ambient environmental shear will be generally weak, but
with a rather moist and unstable airmass, the potential for a few
wet microbursts will exist. There is a more conditional threat for
an upstream MCS to move into the region, which if this did occur,
would potentially necessitate a greater severe risk (than the
marginal currently advertised). Another possibility is for an
upstream MCS to weaken before reaching the area tomorrow morning,
with a remnant MCV and/or cold pool helping to initiate convection
tomorrow afternoon. Needless to say, any severe weather threat for
tomorrow in conditional, but given the variety of possible avenues
for development, we are advertising a marginal risk for severe
storms in the HWO/graphics. Activity is expected to be primarily
diurnal in nature, with coverage/intensity decreasing by the
evening. /DL/

Monday through Saturday:

With a persistent, broad trough pattern keeping quasi-zonal flow
across the CONUS for much of next week, periodic shortwaves
moving east will keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms in
our forecast each day. In the lower levels, winds will be mainly
out of the south around the western periphery of the Bermuda High
which should keep temperatures warm and humidity elevated.
Scattered afternoon convection is expected in the warm and humid
airmass, and some more organized MCS activity may move into the
region. Given the mostly zonal flow and possibility for a few
different shortwaves to move across our region throughout next
week, confidence in rain occurring at any particular location on
any particular afternoon will be hard to nail down. The greatest
confidence for rain around the region remains with the first
shortwave Monday into Tuesday, and then a second prominent
shortwave passing on Thursday may help to organize better coverage
as well. POPs for the remainder of the week have been trended
toward climatological averages of around 30 to 40 percent
especially during the afternoon hours. High temperatures will be
mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s, unless a more organized MCS
can sweep into the forecast area and stabilize the atmosphere for
one of the afternoons. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions prevail across the region this early afternoon.
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA are possible mainly along and
south of I-20 through early this evening, which could bring brief
ceiling/visibility reductions. Southerly winds will be gusty at
times this afternoon, with a few gusts to near 20 kt possible.
Early Sunday morning, MVFR ceilings will be possible, with the
greatest potential at HBG/PIB/JAN/HKS/GLH. Conditions should
improve by mid-morning. Additional scattered SHRA/TSRA are
expected Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 71 91 71 90 / 9 39 27 43
Meridian 72 93 72 91 / 6 31 24 43
Vicksburg 73 90 72 88 / 10 52 25 49
Hattiesburg 72 93 71 90 / 16 44 21 53
Natchez 71 89 71 88 / 16 50 21 54
Greenville 74 90 71 87 / 5 67 53 60
Greenwood 73 90 71 87 / 6 53 50 46

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

NF/DL
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