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FXUS64 KJAN 252026
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
326 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today through tomorrow: Weak upper-level troughing and
cyclonic flow remain over the region with subtle upper-level
divergence from a weak jet. The troughing working in combination
with daytime heating in a moist environment has resulted in
multiple clusters of thunderstorms across the area this afternoon.
A few of these storms have become strong to severe, especially
where storms/outflow boundaries have merged. There are two main
areas of convection that will be the main focus through the
evening hours - 1) the ongoing storms and outflow moving southeast
towards the Jackson metro, and 2) a cluster of storms and outflow
moving north from the Gulf Coast in association with the sea
breeze. Storms will be likely through early evening along and
ahead of these two areas. A few strong to possibly severe storms
will remain possible, primarily where storms/outflow boundaries
merge. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding remain possible
over the southeast, especially where these aforementioned outflow
boundaries merge and enhance the moisture convergence within an
already saturated environment with PWATs near 2". As such, the
ongoing limited risk for flash flooding remains well placed for
now. For tonight, expect this activity to wane with loss of
daytime heating, however a few showers and perhaps a storm could
linger overnight. Some patchy fog will be possible for any
locations that see rain, especially over the southeast.

For tomorrow, expect another round of numerous diurnally driven
showers and storms to develop by the mid to late morning hours and
persisting through the day. The thermodynamic environment will be
somewhat better over the Delta where lapse rates will steepen to 6-
6.5 C/km. The greatest threat for strong to isolated severe storms
with microbursts will be located here, however strong storms cannot
be ruled out where storms/outflow boundaries merge. In addition,
locally heavy rainfall could also result in isolated flash flooding.
Given uncertainty regarding the areal coverage of both threats will
hold off on mentioning severe of flooding potential in the
HWO/graphics and will wait for further analysis. /TW/

Saturday night through Friday: Main focus in the long term will be
dictated by the eventual track, speed and intensity of now
Tropical Storm Alberto which at last Advisory was meandering over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Currently, the most likely
arrival time of any tropical storm force winds over our CWA is
Monday along with flooding potential across our Southeast. Current
thinking suggests four to seven inches of rain will be possible
especially along the Interstate 59 corridor. There will likely be
quite a qpf gradient across the western portions of our CWA that
stands to see the least amount of rainfall through the forecast
period. In addition, the warmest temperatures are expected over
the western portions of our CWA through the period as well.
Alberto looks to shift east of our CWA during the day Wednesday
followed by mid level ridging from the southwest. A disturbance
is expected to drop southeast around the top of the mid level
ridge Wednesday night and across northeast Mississippi Thursday. A
few storms may drop south across our northeast zones during this
timeframe but much of the area will return to warm and drier
conditions. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Numerous showers and storms are already ongoing across the region
and will continue to impact the area through the early evening
hours tonight. VFR conditions will prevail outside of these
showers and storms with brief reductions to MVFR ceilings and IFR
visibilities within any of this activity. Once again, a few hours
of fog and/or low ceilings will be possible early tomorrow morning
but will be dependent on where rainfall occurs today so left
mention/flight category reductions out of the TAFs for now but
could be needed with later issuance. Another round of showers and
storms could get an early start again late tomorrow morning so
VCSH will be possible at any TAF site. /TW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 70 85 69 85 / 37 64 42 22
Meridian 70 85 67 84 / 44 67 49 47
Vicksburg 72 87 68 88 / 34 66 29 34
Hattiesburg 70 86 68 83 / 34 68 50 66
Natchez 71 87 68 87 / 34 66 32 31
Greenville 73 87 70 88 / 21 61 25 38
Greenwood 72 85 69 87 / 22 65 29 35

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

TW/22
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