FXUS64 KJAN 050943
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
343 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...COOLER AND DRIER FOR THE
SHORT TERM. THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
EAST SLOWLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING NORTH LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL KEEP THE GULF CLOSED THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING DEEP MOISTURE.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE DELTA
THAT WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING BUT THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING OVER OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY
THANKS IN PART TO THE CLOSED LOW OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING THAT
WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE THICKEST CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLOSED LOW TODAY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. THE WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING WILL
BACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RESULT OF
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO HELP STREAM HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. NORMAL
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER OUR NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHEAST. EVEN THOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGH
MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A LITTLE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL. /22/
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ARKLAMISS ON TUESDAY WITH WITH NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING AND HIGH TEMPS AROUND 60. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH OVER OUR AREA...BUT MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH.
SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CUTTING OFF A LOW NEAR BAJA
MEXICO THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS A LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET MOVES THROUGH THE GULF. THE GFS/ECMWF
DIVERGE IN THERE SOLUTIONS AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE EURO
AND GFSENSAMBLE NOT NEAR AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND MOST OF THE WINTER...SO ITS HARD NOT
TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS ALSO DRIER...WITH THE GFS
DEVELOPING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH. WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF CUTTING POPS LEANING TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS...BUT
WARMED THEM A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND GOING WITH THE WARMER ECMWF
SOLUTION./15/
&&
.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
NORTH WINDS OF 9-12KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WEST OF THE AREA BUILDS EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED
OVER THE NORTHWEST WITH MVFR CENTRAL AND IFR SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST
HOWEVER...BKN-OVC DECKS 3-4K FEET MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTH.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND MONDAY /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 61 40 58 40 / 2 4 4 7
MERIDIAN 64 40 62 38 / 2 3 5 5
VICKSBURG 58 39 57 37 / 2 6 4 7
HATTIESBURG 67 43 63 40 / 7 8 8 9
NATCHEZ 59 41 57 39 / 6 12 5 10
GREENVILLE 55 39 54 36 / 1 3 4 6
GREENWOOD 57 38 56 36 / 1 3 4 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
MME/15/MME
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