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FXUS64 KJAN 251711 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1211 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...

After a week of cloudy and rainy weather, today should be rather
pleasant. The upper trough that was responsible for this rainy
weather will continue to move east and upper ridging will take over.
This will result in sunny skies and mild temperatures today, after a
cool start. Highs will range from the upper 70s in the Golden
Triangle to the lower 80s in the MissLou. Overnight lows will be
cool in the east with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Slightly
warmer conditions will occur west of the Mississippi River as
moisture returns to the region ahead of a developing low pressure
system in Oklahoma. /28/

Friday into early Saturday: Dry conditions will continue into the
end of the work week as shortwave mid/upper ridging passes across
the area. This along with increased southerly WAA will push daytime
temps back to above normal, with low 90s quite possible in many
areas. Meanwhile, a new surface cyclone will be taking shape over
Oklahoma as an upper trough begins to dig into the northern Plains
coinciding with a belt of increasing subtropical jet energy from the
Pac SW into the Ohio Valley. As the surface low tracks northeastward
toward the Great Lakes, it will drag a cold front slowly southward
toward our area. Clouds will begin to increase ahead of this system
by late Friday. I can't rule out isolated warm advection showers by
the daytime Saturday, but most measurable rain looks to hold off
until later on.

Late Sat through Memorial Day: Mainly zonal upper flow will prevail
over our area during the holiday weekend, resulting in a slow
southward progression of the front. By Saturday night, however, it
will be close enough that scattered storms may begin to reach the
northern half of the area. Higher rain chances will exist across the
entire area Sunday into Memorial Day as the front continues to sink
southward. The last few model runs offer slightly less optimism the
front will make sufficient southward progress to limit coverage on
Memorial Day, with likely rain chances continuing over a large part
of the area. Though forcing will be somewhat limited with this
system, instability is forecast to be quite impressive and deep
layer shear is expected to be sufficient for some instances of more
organized convection. Particularly with it being important to keep
everyone aware during a holiday weekend with many outdoor
activities, we will go ahead and introduce potential for strong to
severe storms to the HWO. For now, this will cover late Saturday
night (potential for severe storms upstream over AR to move into our
area late) and Sunday, but it's possible Monday will eventually need
to be added to the mix as well. Flooding will also be another hazard
to monitor given the slow progress of the front and potential for
multiple rounds of convection.

Tuesday into Wednesday: The front will stall across the central/
southern part of the area early next week, continuing to provide a
greater focus for scattered showers and storms in those areas. It
may push just far enough south for a break over the northern portion
of the forecast area during this time frame. Temperatures will be
generally near normal. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 79 62 90 70 / 0 0 0 8
Meridian 79 59 90 67 / 0 0 0 5
Vicksburg 81 63 90 71 / 0 0 0 8
Hattiesburg 81 61 89 68 / 0 0 0 8
Natchez 81 64 89 72 / 0 0 0 7
Greenville 80 65 88 71 / 0 0 0 7
Greenwood 78 63 88 70 / 0 0 0 5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$
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