FXUS62 KJAX 090721
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
321 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED S AND WEAKENED...NOW EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL FL TO S TX. AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MS
VALLEY TO CENTRAL CANADA. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N GA
TO THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE OVER OK. HIGH CLOUDINESS IS SPILLING
OVER THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BUT IS STILL REMAINING FAIRLY THIN OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. NOT MUCH LOW OR MID CLOUDINESS TO BE FOUND AND
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME S COASTAL WATERS.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID
70S INLAND.

.SHORT TERM...FRONT TO THE N WILL SINK S DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE KEEPING A NARROW
SWATH OF DRIER AIR OVER S GA TODAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN OVER
NE FL. A MORE UNIFORM POP DISTRIBUTION IS EXPECTED OVER INLAND
AREAS ON FRI...WITH LOWEST POPS OVER THE NW CLOSER TO LINGERING
DRY AIR BEHIND FADING FRONT. SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...BUT E GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THIS
PRECIP OVER INLAND LOCATIONS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MAX
READINGS IN THE MID 90S OVER INLAND AREAS AND HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 105. MOS TEMPERATURES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND A
BLEND HAS BEEN USED. THE BEST CHANCE OF FOG OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE THIS MORNING ALTHO MOS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FOG SAT NIGHT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HOT SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO THE REGION BY WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING DESPITE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. MVFR VSBYS WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE TIL AROUND 12Z AT NE FL TAF SITES. WILL PUT VCTS IN
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME SE IN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZE FORMS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY PROVIDING AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND 3 FEET
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 95 70 95 70 / 10 10 30 10
SSI 89 75 91 76 / 10 20 30 20
JAX 92 73 94 73 / 20 10 30 10
SGJ 89 74 90 74 / 20 10 30 20
GNV 92 71 93 72 / 40 20 40 30
OCF 92 72 93 72 / 40 20 40 20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

CARROLL/ZIBURA




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