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FXUS62 KJAX 172012
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
312 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.NEAR TERM (Today and Tonight)... Afternoon surface analysis
shows frontal system stretching through central Florida from Tampa
to Daytona Beach. With and behind the frontal passage, gusty
northwesterly winds between 20 to 25 mph have kept apparent
temperatures on the chilly side, especially across portions of
southeast Georgia where wind chills are already around the
freezing mark. Although winds will gradually decrease to around 10
mph, the cooling trend will continue across all zones throughout
the evening hours and into the overnight with temperatures
reaching the lower to mid 20s across SE Georgia and Suwannee
Valley and mid to upper 20s along the coast. Kept some areas a
couple of degrees above guidance due to the cooling primarily
being associated with cold air advection. Guidance has shown in
past events to be too cold for this type of scenario. Surface high
pressure sliding into the lower Mississippi Valley will build
overhead through the near term. As a result, once clouds clear the
area this evening, clear skies will dominate the overnight and
into the day on Friday. Temperatures, 10-20 degrees below average,
will be felt tomorrow with only southern areas reaching the lower
50s. With the forecast temperatures, have opted for a wind chill
advisory and hard freeze warning until 9 AM Friday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Friday through Sunday)...
Friday morning will be another cold one across the region -
starting out in the mid 20s to the low 30s near the coast with
surface high pressure centered near the Florida panhandle. Surface
high will weaken slightly as it slides eastward across northeast
Florida during the day. Heights will rise slightly as ridging starts
to build over the Caribbean. A weak shortwave trough will move
through the Gulf States through the weekend, though timing and
strength differ between solutions. This feature should do little
to affect sensible weather across the area through the end of the
weekend. High temperatures will rebound to about 10 degrees warmer
than Thursday with mid 50s to low 60s expected. Warming trend
continues into Saturday with near normal (low to mid 60s)
temperatures expected. Sunday should be warm and mostly sunny with
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Wednesday)...
Heights begin falling on Monday as a large upper level low
strengthens and moves into the Central Plains. At the surface, a
weak coastal trough could bring a chance for scattered showers
along the coast on Monday as onshore flow develops ahead of the
approaching frontal system. Surface low pressure will deepen
rapidly across the Great Lakes on Monday and Tuesday, sending a
cold front through the Southeast sometime Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR will persist until 21Z for most TAF sites until ceilings
clear to VFR for the remainder of the evening and overnight.
Periodic gusty northwesterly winds around 12-17 knots are
possible until the evening hours as winds settle to around 10
knots. With surface high pressure building in, VFR conditions will
persist through the day on Friday with winds around 10 knots
shifting to from the north.

&&

.MARINE...
A dry cold front is currently moving through the coastal waters.
With surface high pressure moving into the lower Mississippi
Valley, a locally tight pressure gradient is producing blustery
northwesterly winds resulting in building seas. High pressure
will continue building southeastward and will be centered over our
waters on Friday, with winds and seas gradually decreasing. High
pressure will then gradually shift eastward into the Atlantic
waters this weekend to the East over the weekend, with a cold
front moving eastward across our region by Monday night.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk into Thursday


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 20 47 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 30 47 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 25 49 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 28 49 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 22 49 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 26 50 30 60 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday
for Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal
Nassau-Columbia-Flagler-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-
Inland Nassau-Marion-Putnam-St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.

Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday
for Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal
Nassau-Columbia-Flagler-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-
Inland Nassau-Marion-Putnam-St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.

GA...Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday
for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal
Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland
Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday
for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal
Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland
Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for Waters from
Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Thursday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to
Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal
waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

McGinnis/Elsenheimer/Nelson/Corless
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