FXUS62 KJAX 181821
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
221 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019
...BECOMING WINDY ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH ROUGH SURF, HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...
.NEAR TERM...through Tuesday night...
Drier air is spreading southward on northerly flow...with surface dew
points falling through the 30s across the area, and 20s across s-ctrl
GA. With clear skies and light winds, temperatures would normally drop
quite a bit. However, satellite imagery is showing a large mass of
cloudiness over the Gulf of Mexico which will spread NE over forecast
area Tonight, keeping temperatures up a bit. Latest consensus guidance
is a bit above current low temperature forecast for Tonight...will
trend forecast up closer to consensus.
On Tuesday, a weak shortwave trough aloft will approach the FL peninsula.
Model guidance shows a large area of rain spreading across central and
southern FL during the day...some guidance suggests a threat for light
rain in our southeastern counties. Have limited chance POP coverage to the
far southeastern part of our forecast area. Otherwise mostly cloudy skies
expected...with best chance of any sunshine over our northern counties. Some
uncertainty on high temperature forecast...consensus guidance seems on the
low side without a lot of precipitation...have gone a few degrees above
consensus given potential for any partial insolation.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
Weak low pressure will move over offshore waters Wednesday...with scattered
showers over the coastal waters...expect dry over land with partly cloudy skies.
Weak cold air advection pattern on back side of low will help keep temperatures
a little below normal with high temperatures in the 65-70 range and low
temperatures Thursday morning 40-45 se GA, 45-50 ne FL.
A shortwave trough will swing over the southeastern states Thursday, but will
not be associated with any precipitation.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the region Friday through
Sunday, leading to a period of dry weather. Latest consensus guidance suggests a
slow warming trend this period, with temperatures getting above normal by Sunday.
.AVIATION...VFR conditions through tonight and early Tuesday with just mid and
high clouds expected. Lower cigs to around 3000-5000 ft could occur for KSGJ
after 12z Tuesday but for now have scattered deck at 3000 ft and VCSH toward
midday. Winds rest of today northeast to north 10-15 kt...highest at KSGJ.
Winds will relax tonight, then increase again for Tuesday. North-northeast
winds will increase to sustained 15-18kt with higher gusts by 14z-15z. The
higher winds most likely to occur at KSSI, KCRG, and KSGJ
.MARINE....With high pressure building north of the waters, and low pressure south
of the waters, the pressure gradient across the waters will increase Tue/Wed,
resulting in stronger winds and higher seas. Will maintain current small craft
advisory. Winds and seas are expected to gradually decrease late Thursday and Friday.
Rip Currents: High risk on Tuesday and Wednesday as winds increase and become
more onshore producing rough surf with breakers increasing to near 7 feet.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 43 65 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 49 62 49 63 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 47 66 49 67 / 0 10 0 0
SGJ 54 65 54 66 / 10 20 10 10
GNV 48 67 48 70 / 0 10 10 0
OCF 49 68 50 72 / 10 20 10 0
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 10 AM EDT Thursday for
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from
20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 11 PM EDT Wednesday
for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach
FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to
Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.
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