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FXUS62 KJAX 250701
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
301 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.Near Term.../through Tonight/...

Region will be between high pressure to the north and inverted
trough to the southeast Today. Cooler and drier air will try to push
into SE GA in the nose of the high this afternoon, but will likely
not get far. A tropical wave in the inverted trough may develop into
a low this afternoon, with this energy tracks further to the
northeast tonight.

A northeast flow will develop between the trough and high today.
Best convergence and moisture will be inland, so favoring numerous
convection there and scattered elsewhere this afternoon into
evening.

The stronger this low is, the more of a push of cooler and drier
air in the nose of the high will make Tonight.

Highs will trend near normal inland NE FL Today, and a little below
normal elsewhere. Near normal readings Tonight NE FL, and below over
SE GA.

&&

.Short Term.../Monday through Wednesday/...

A trough trailing the low pressure system will remain over region
Monday into Tuesday, providing convergence, and leading to above
average chances for convection. A cold front will approach from the
northwest Tuesday night, then move to near the GA/FL line Wednesday
afternoon. Scattered convection is expected along this front.

Temperatures this period will trend near to slightly below normal
this period.

&&

.Long Term.../Wednesday night through Saturday/...

Cold front is expected to move just to the southeast of the forecast
area Wednesday night, as high pressure builds to the north
northwest. Low pressure may develop on this front Thursday, then drift
west into the gulf Thursday night into Friday, as high pressure
builds to the north northeast into Saturday. The models are
inconsistent in development of this low.

Best chances for convection this period will be over NE FL.
Temperatures will trend near normal this period.

&&

.Marine...

A tropical wave to the southeast of the region this morning may
develop into a low as it tracks further to the northeast this
afternoon into tonight. A trough of low pressure extending from the
departing low pressure system will linger over the region early this
week. A cold front will push southeast across area Wednesday through
Wednesday night, stalling just to the south Thursday. High pressure
will build to the north northeast late in the week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue through the overnight hours.
The latest guidance suggests a large area of lower cigs
BKN010-020, currently observed north of our forecast area, will
spread/develop southward across srn GA during the remainder of the
night and across the FL/GA border to JAX area TAF sites around
12z. Conflicting guidance as to whether the lower CIGS will hold
during the day or become more scattered with a higher CIG leading
to considerable forecast uncertainty. For 06z TAFs, maintained
forecast of MVFR CIGS during the day, perhaps becoming VFR late in
the day or during the evening.

Expecting widely scattered showers/isolated TSRA this afternoon,
mostly west of TAF sites, so only have
VCSH in TAFs for now. Surface winds are expected to be northeasterly
5 kts this morning, around 10 kts late morning through afternoon.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 84 71 88 73 / 20 20 60 50
SSI 83 77 86 77 / 30 30 40 40
JAX 86 77 88 75 / 30 30 40 40
SGJ 86 78 88 75 / 40 40 40 40
GNV 90 75 90 74 / 50 60 70 50
OCF 91 75 91 74 / 40 50 70 40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

23/Wolf
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