FXUS62 KJAX 201821
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
221 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018
.Near Term.../through Friday/...
Surface high pressure will be Northeast of the region this period,
while an inverted upper low moves West across South Florida. This
pattern will provide for a moist onshore flow. The upper low should
be far enough South to not have much impact locally.
Isolated to scattered showers/storms over mainly NE FL will
dissipate this evening, with loss of diurnal heating. With this
onshore flow continuing can not rule an isolated shower along the
coast Overnight into Friday morning. Isolated to scattered
showers/storms will develop across forecast area with diurnal
heating Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will trend above normal this period.
.Short Term.../Friday night through Monday/...
Surface high pressure will be Northeast of the region this period
continuing the onshore flow pattern. In this pattern coastal showers
will be possible Overnight into the morning hours as moisture moves
across the relatively warmer Western Atlantic, with isolated to
scattered showers/storms across land in the afternoon due to diurnal
Temperatures will trend above normal this period, with warmest
readings near the coast at night, and inland during the day.
.Long Term.../Monday night through Thursday/...
Surface high pressure ridge will remain to the Northeast into
Tuesday, as a wave of low pressure moves Northwest toward the area.
This feature could enhance precipitation coverage into Tuesday. A
cold front is expected to move into SE GA Wednesday, then stall
through Thursday. This boundary will be a focus for additional
convection in the Wednesday into Thursday timeframe.
Temperatures will trend above seasonal normals this period.
East to northeast flow around 10-15 kt and gusty rest of the
afternoon, staying up near 10 kt tonight along the coastal TAF
sites. A few showers and storms through the aftn possible around
GNV but probabilities low enough to just have VCSH/VCTS at this
time. Overnight, a few showers will be possible along the coast
coming in off the Atlantic. Isolated to scattered convection
expected Friday, with chances a bit higher then they are today,
and could impact TAF sites but at this time chances are 30 percent
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 72 87 70 91 / 10 20 0 10
SSI 79 84 75 86 / 10 20 30 20
JAX 74 86 73 88 / 10 20 20 30
SGJ 78 84 74 86 / 20 20 20 30
GNV 73 89 70 90 / 10 20 0 20
OCF 73 90 71 91 / 20 20 0 30
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