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FXUS62 KJAX 260756
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
356 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.NEAR TERM /Today-Tonight/...

Today...Warming trend will continue as steering flow becomes more
S/SW and under mostly sunny skies expect highs into the mid/upper
80s inland and lower 80s at the coast as sea breezes move inland
from both coasts. The more SW sfc winds will push most of the
smoke from the West Mims wildfire into coastal SE GA and the
Brunswick Metro Areas although some areas closer to the fire
location in Charlton/Nassau counties will still have some smoke
this morning. Atmosphere still too dry to support any pcpn despite
sea breeze fronts pushing inland during the afternoon hours.

Tonight...The S/SW steering flow aloft will increase slightly
ahead of the approaching shortwave along the North Gulf Coast and
this will lead to milder temps with lows in the lower 60s inland
and mid/upper 60s along the coast. Some increase in high clouds
will be possible across inland areas during the overnight hours.
Smoke from the West Mims wildfire will continue to impact mainly
coastal SE GA from Waycross to Brunswick.

.SHORT TERM /Thursday and Friday/...

Heights will actually rise on Thursday despite an approaching
frontal boundary. The upstream trough will result in amplification
of the upper ridge across our region. The heat will build both
days with above normal temps, roughly 10 degrees above average.
Increased southwesterly flow on Thursday will keep the seabreeze
pinned at or near the coast and this will allow the heat to build
almost all the way to the coast. Pressure gradient will be a
little more relaxed on Friday which will allow the seabreeze to
push inland late in the afternoon, resulting in some relief from
the heat at the beaches in the afternoon. Farther inland though,
it will be nice and warm with near record temps.

The front on Thursday will stall out well upstream of our area,
but enough moisture will make it into portions of southeast
Georgia to perhaps support a few showers/storms across our far
northwestern zones near the Altamaha River Basin Thursday
afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, no rain is expected on
Thursday, but there is a slight chance of a thunderstorm Friday
as the seabreezes move inland and collide late in the day,
interacting with the near record heat.

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...

The flow will become more southeasterly on Saturday and this will
bring an increase in humidity levels and bring even more relief
from the heat near the coast. Strong ridging aloft however will
once again result in max temps climbing into the 90s across inland
locations.

On Saturday, isolated storms will be possible on the seabreeze
across mainly our southern zones where higher moisture will be
available. Overall, however, the weekend will feature hot and dry
conditions across much of the area.

On Monday, winds will veer to the southwest and increase ahead of
a fast approaching cold front. The cold front will push through
sometime in the Monday night timeframe, and bring with it our
next best chances for rainfall. Early indications are that there
will be enough forcing and moisture to support scattered to
numerous showers and some embedded thunderstorm activity, with the
best chances across southeast Georgia. This will also bring in
more seasonable temps with much lower humidity levels as drier air
pushes into the region behind the front on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds at NE FL TAF sites through the period, while some MVFR
smoke is possible at times at KSSI.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow expected through the period. 10-15 knot speeds will
increase to 15-20 knots tonight through Thursday night ahead of
the next approaching trof, then expected to weaken back to 10-15
knots for Fri/Sat before another southerly increase starts on
Sunday back into the 15-20 knot range. Seas generally 2-4 ft feet
except closer to 4-6 ft offshore during the period of stronger
southerly winds.

Rip Currents: Low risk will continue in the side-shore southerly
flow. Long period swells around 1 ft noted at the nearshore buoys
but not enough to warrant a moderate risk.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Prevailing winds today will generally be out of the southwest
around 10 to 15 mph inland, but the seabreeze will bring
southeast winds around 15 mph near the coast late this afternoon.
Relative humidities will drop into the 30 percentile range but
remain above critical thresholds.

On Thursday, southwest winds will increase to 15 to 18 mph with
gusts to around 25 mph at many inland locations. RH Values will
once again settle into the 30 percentile range for much of the
area. The exception will be near the Altamaha River basin where
more clouds are expected and also where there will be a low
chance for some showers/storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 87 60 87 66 / 0 0 20 10
SSI 79 68 85 71 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 85 63 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
SGJ 82 66 88 71 / 0 0 10 10
GNV 85 62 90 66 / 0 0 10 0
OCF 85 62 91 67 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Hess/Shuler/
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