FXUS62 KJAX 151852
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
252 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019
.NEAR TERM .../thru Sunday/...
Weak W to WSW flow aloft across forecast area through Tonight.
GOES derived water vapor shows dry airmass along and N of I-10
corridor, with an axis of 1.5-1.7 inch values OCF toward SGJ.
Latest HRRR guidance shows scattered showers and few t-storms from
north-central FL extending northward to interior se GA.
Expectation is for any showers N of I-10 to be very isolated and
weak given the drier airmass, so will limit POP to 10 pct N of
1-10 corridor, with 30-40 POP north-central FL for this
afternoon, with any showers diminishing during the evening. Low
temperature forecast looks good for Tonight.
For Sunday, hi-res model guidance suggests sea breezes meet over
interior ne FL. Will have axis of likely POP OCF-GNV-Lake
City, chance POP elsewhere. Activity will be slow-moving due to
light flow aloft. Latest guidance supports current high
temperature forecast Sunday.
.SHORT TERM.../Sunday Night thru Monday night/...
Models suggest a weak shortwave trough will move northeast from
eastern Gulf of Mexico over FL peninsula during this period.
Scattered showers may continue through Sunday night across FL
peninsula. On Monday, greatest coverage is expected to be interior
ne FL/se GA so have highest POP there. Highest temps Monday
expected to be south-central GA with lower 90s given perhaps a
little more insolation, 88-90 ne FL.
.LONG TERM.../Tuesday thru Friday/...
During this period, westerlies shift southward over the area,
with waves in the flow aloft. Models suggest that each day we'll
have scattered showers over NW FL and panhandle early in the
morning, spreading eastward with t-storms during the day with
good coverage, thus fairly high POP values each day. Temperatures
will be at or slightly above normal through this period.
.AVIATION...Generally VFR prevailing conditions, however,
cumulus field developing this afternoon is near MVFR criteria.
Some isolated showers have occurred early this afternoon so
included VCSH into JAX/VQQ/CRG sites. Still think the best chance
for TS is further south toward GNV. Satellite imagery shows
cumulus remain flat as updrafts struggle to bust through the
capping inversion. With a few more hours of heating, deeper
showers and thunderstorms will occur near GNV so VCTS remains,
however confidence is not high enough for TEMPO group at this
time. SH/TS weaken this evening with VFR conditions prevailing
through tomorrow afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible again tomorrow.
.MARINE...Surface high pressure north of the waters will shift
well east of the waters during the Weekend, then become
stationary east of the waters early next week. The result will be
moderate south to southeast flow with 2-4 ft seas into early next
Rip Currents...Low to Moderate risk Sunday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 68 92 71 92 / 10 30 10 60
SSI 75 86 75 87 / 10 20 10 30
JAX 70 90 73 90 / 10 30 10 50
SGJ 74 87 72 86 / 10 20 10 30
GNV 69 91 71 88 / 20 60 10 60
OCF 71 91 71 87 / 20 60 20 70
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