FXUS63 KJKL 140320 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1020 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED

IT IS GOOD TO BE BACK UP AND RUNNING HERE AT JKL. ANYWAYS...UPDATED
THE FORECAST TONIGHT TO FINE TUNE POPS...SKY COVER AND TEMPS. WITH
BLACK MOUNTAIN BELOW FREEZING DID ALSO ADD A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
GRIDS AND ZONES ABOVE 3000 FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION... DUE
TO THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES...ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE VALLEYS. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

APPEARS THAT A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SIMILAR ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND DISORGANIZED IN THE BAGGY MIDDLE OF AN UPPER
LOW.

FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
COVERAGE MAY BE EVEN GREATER THAN THAT. AT THIS POINT QPF DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.

LINGERING TROUGHINESS AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN ZONES INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE
DECREASING WITH TIME. WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
START TO WORK IN FOR TUESDAY.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP DIURNAL RANGE NARROW. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE COOL TOMORROW
AND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. LEANED
TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT FRONT WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. THUS EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE OUT...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LOWER. EXPECTING SOME PERIODS OF LOW END MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

EXACT TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE HARD TO
DEPICT...SO HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH A VCSH IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ILN/GREIF
LONG TERM....ILN
AVIATION...ILN

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