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FXUS63 KJKL 152108
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
508 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 435 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019

Current surface analysis shows a low pressure system over Iowa,
with a surface front over the upper Ohio Valley and a cold front
extending down over the central Plains. This system will be slow
to progress eastward over the next couple of days. Mainly zonal
flow will be present aloft, and a series of shortwaves will also
move over the Ohio Valley. Chances for showers will thus increase
from the northwest this evening and overspread eastern Kentucky
into tomorrow.

With the stagnant pattern, showers will then persist through the
beginning of the work week. Furthermore, model soundings show an
average of 3000 J/kg MUCAPE for Sunday afternoon. MUCAPE on Monday
is close to this value too; therefore, each day will see fair
chances for thunderstorms, particularly during peak heating in the
afternoon and early evening. With PWATS generally between 1.5 and
1.8 inches, there will be the potential for localized flooding in
the stronger storms as well.

After high temperatures today in the lower 80s, low temperatures
in the upper 60s are expected into tomorrow morning. This pattern
will then continue for Sunday afternoon and Monday morning, with
highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 508 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019

The models remain in good agreement through the majority of the
period, regarding an active pattern ahead for the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys. Broad troughing will remain in place across the
middle and lower Mississippi valleys, with a west to east oriented
frontal boundary remaining in place around the vicinity of the
Ohio River. Multiple passing short waves will traverse the region,
along with some surface low reflection at times. PWATs will be in
the 1.6-1.7 inch range, along with some surges up to as high as
the 1.8-2.0 inch range, allowing for heavy rainers at times. Flow
will be more progressive, although depending on the mesoscale and
storm scale, some training will be possible at times. Towards next
weekend, the ECMWF builds a ridge back into the area, allowing for
lower chance PoPs. The GFS shows more of a short-lived opportunity
of drier weather. Have stuck fairly close to the blended PoPs
through Thursday, but then favored lower PoPs for Friday and
Saturday, given the model disagreement.

For Eastern Kentucky, unsettled and humid weather will remain in
place through the majority of the period, with daily good to
likely chances of showers and storms. The best overall chances
will arrive Monday night into Tuesday and again from Wednesday
night into Thursday, when there is overall better forcing
forecast. As we head into Friday and Saturday, PoP chances will
decrease to the slight to chance range. Highs through the period
will average in the low to mid 80s, with lows in the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019

A surface low pressure system is slowly making its way towards
the Great Lakes, with a surface front draped over the upper Ohio
Valley. This system is expected to progress to the southeast,
causing the front to slowly push southward as well. Thus, chances
of showers and the potential for thunderstorms will increase later
this evening, mainly for areas north of I-64. Shower and storm
chances will then expand to areas further south, mainly along and
north of the Mountain Parkway, through Sunday. Have included
mention of at least VCSH for SYM this evening and also for JKL and
SJS tomorrow morning to account for this. Meanwhile, southwest
winds this afternoon will be fairly strong, with sustained winds
between 10 and 15 knots. Gusty winds up to 25 knots are also
expected. In fact, the SYM site observed a 25 knot wind gust
earlier this morning. Winds will then decrease later this evening
to be below 10 knots for the overnight. Another concern will be
for LLWS during the overnight tonight. A fairly stout low level
jet will set up over eastern Kentucky, bringing around 40 knots of
LLWS by 4Z that will persist through the early morning hours. By
13Z, however, this is expected to diminish. Lastly, some gusty
winds up to 25 knots are likely by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CGAL
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...CGAL
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