FXUS63 KJKL 050820
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED

THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
AREA YESTERDAY IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH. AT 3 AM...A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED EAST WEST ACROSS THE AREA FROM A LOW OVER
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THEN STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
AND THEN CONTINUED EAST ALONG KY 80 INTO PIKE COUNTY. THE FR0NT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BETWEEN 7
AND 10 AM TODAY. WITH ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THE UPPER
TROUGHING STILL EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THEN THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS A PRESCRIPTION FOR SOME CLOUDY AND
DRIZZLY LONDON LIKE WEATHER TODAY. THINGS WILL FINALLY GET BETTER THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY WHERE THE GFS
GENERATES SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LOW AND
THE NAM DOES NOT. HAVE DECIDED TO PUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST TO BETTER AGREE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THEY SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW KICKS
BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IT WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND. FOR
TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

VERY FAST AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THIS
POINT...THESE WAVES APPEAR MOISTURE STARVED...BUT THE POTENTIAL
ALWAYS EXIST THAT MODELS ARE UNDER CUTTING THESE SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING AND POSITION
OF THESE FEATURES IN THE FAST FLOW...CANNOT JUSTIFY GOING WITH
ANYTHING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF
THESE CHANCES WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECOND CHANCE COMING
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF
ON THIS IDEA TO SOME DEGREE...IT APPEARS THE WAVE ON FRIDAY MAY PUSH
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...LIKE I MENTIONED...MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING WARMER...AND GIVEN HOW THIS WINTER HAS GONE...THIS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE. THE ONE THING THAT MAY COUNTER THIS TREND
IS THE NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A COLDER
AIRMASS DIVING SOUTHWARD...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
MODELS REVERSE THE TREND...AND HEAD BACK TOWARDS A COLDER SOLUTION.
REGARDLESS...WE WILL FINALLY SEE A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY TRANSITION TO
SOME SNOW. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND REALLY
WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/

THE CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE TONIGHT DUE TO THE
RESIDUAL RAINFALL AND LOW CLOUDS. THE STRATUS HAS LOWERED AND SO SOME
LOCATIONS LIKE JACKSON ARE DOWN IN VLIFR FOG. THE VALLEYS IN MOST CASES
ARE ACTUALLY BETTER THAN THE ELEVATED STATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEN START TO GET BETTER
AFTER 14-15Z. THE CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN TO MOVE OUT TOMORROW AND
WILL NOT RETURN TO VFR UNTIL AROUND 20-21Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ


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