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FXUS63 KJKL 301430 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1030 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT SUN APR 30 2017

14z sfc analysis shows deep low pressure over the Central Plains
with a well defined warm front now well north of the area lying
across the northern parts of the Ohio Valley. This will be the
focus of storm development and flooding concerns through the rest
of the day, while in eastern Kentucky the warm sector dome of
warmer air should suppress storm development. However, as we saw
yesterday, the fuel is in place for strong to severe storms should
any convection manage break the cap. The latest high res CAMS
guidance keep the cap in place. This will be monitored closely
through the afternoon and into the evening, for potential
weakening. On satellite, thinner clouds are found over eastern
Kentucky while the west is seeing more cloud cover associated blow
off from the storms on going in the lower Mississippi Valley. The
extra sunshine today should maximize temperature rises with near
record readings expected in the mid to upper 80s - increasing
from the current mid 70s. Dewpoints, likewise, will stay elevated
and moist - currently in the mid 60s most places - with only
limited midday drying expected. Winds will be breezy today from
the south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gust up to 25 mph in
the afternoon. The grids have been updated, primarily to reflect
the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 702 AM EDT SUN APR 30 2017

Showers and storms are staying well off to our west this morning.
Locally dense fog has formed in portions of the Big Sandy river
valley where the rain fell yesterday evening. This fog should burn
off quickly after sunrise. Temperatures are already in the 70s in
many places, setting the stage for another very warm day. No
changes planned as of this time to the current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT SUN APR 30 2017

An area of low pressure will occlude today as it tracks into the
western great lakes. The gradient will continue to tighten up
across eastern Kentucky as the occluded front to our west moves
towards our region. This will lead to some gusty winds developing
across the area today. Some gusts up to 25 mph will be possible
today, especially in the bluegrass region, extending southward
into our broad valleys in the southwest. Ridgetops will also get
gusty. South/southeast flow will lead to downsloping conditions
across the area today. With this flow strengthening during the
day, any rogue showers/storms should be held at bay today as
dewpoints mix down into the 50s. High temperatures will once again
surge into the mid to upper 80s, setting the stage for possible
record highs for the second day in a row. Hi-res model guidance
continues to show some activity trying to threaten the area from
the west through the day, but all have it weakening before it
makes it into the area, thanks to the drier air entrenched over
the area and the lack of forcing over the area.

This all changes tonight as that occluded front works east into
eastern Kentucky late tonight into Monday morning. With PW's up
around 1.60 there will be some decent rainfall potential in our
southwest counties extending up into the bluegrass region. This is
especially true if any convection holds together and makes into
the area. Instability is limited over our area late tonight and
Monday morning, so we should see a gradually diminishing trend in
thunder chances as the precipitation moves east. As the front
shears out over us and encounters the drier air in the east, we
may see precipitation start to break up as well leading to
substantially less rainfall in the far east and southeast. Winds
will be the main story late tonight and Monday as winds continue
to increase tonight ahead of the approaching front. The low level
will reach 50 to 60 knots late tonight. This will likely impact
ridges above 2kft late tonight with some strong winds developing.
As the front passes early Monday morning, we should see a period
of decent mixing as the dry slot moves in overhead and skies clear
off. This will likely yield wind gusts up to 35 or 40 mph through
the morning and afternoon hours. While some weakening of the winds
is expected into the evening, they should remain gusting to at
least 30 mph. A wind advisory may be needed for this period, but
will hold off tonight and let the dayshift evaluate the need for
one since its only 3rd period right now. Temperatures will take a
tumble behind the front Monday morning, but should recover into
the upper 60s to lower 70s within the dry slot tomorrow. It does
look like some stratocu may try to work into the area later in the
day as it overtakes the dry slot.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT SUN APR 30 2017

Breezy southwest winds will continue Monday night as the above
mentioned stacked low lifts across the Great Lakes. Surface ridging
across the gulf coast will keep an appreciable pressure gradient in
place across eastern Kentucky until later Tuesday afternoon as the
low moves farther north. Quasi-zonal flow will bring warmer low-
mid level temperatures back, but any substantial warmup will be
dampened by the presence of mid-upper cyclonic flow remaining
from Hudson Bay into the Ohio Valley. Highs look to top out in the
low-mid 70s.

A cooler and wet end to the week appears to be in store as an upper
wave sliding across the Great Plains digs into the Missouri Valley
and closes off. Cold air advection spilling into this low/trough
combined with strong thermal ridging producing anticyclonic flow
from the Gulf of California into the Canadian Prairies will make for
quite an amplified pattern across the United States. While rain
chances will increase Wednesday downstream of this system, shower
and thunderstorm chances will drastically increase into Thursday as
a warm front lifts north. While thunder chances will decrease later
Thursday in a worked over airmass, bonafide rain chances will
continue through Friday as a cold front swings through on the
backside of the departing upper low. Still some uncertainty as to
how quickly this low will push northeast, allowing dry northwest
flow to materialize locally with upper ridging pushing east into the
nation's midsection. This will keep below normal temperatures in the
offing through at least Saturday, with the approaching ridge
bringing warmer readings by late weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT SUN APR 30 2017

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. Winds out
of the south will turn gusty by late morning and through the
afternoon hours on today. Wind gusts up to 25 knots are likely at
times. These winds will likely stay up tonight as a frontal
boundary will approach the area by 06z. Thus, expect a prolonged
period of strong winds across the area. The front will pass late
tonight into early Monday morning with some showers moving on
through. We could see winds behind the front even stronger, with
gusts up to 35 knots possible.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...KAS
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