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FXUS63 KJKL 190800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
400 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019

Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the
Commonwealth. Coupled with zonal flow aloft, this will keep drier
and mostly clear conditions for eastern Kentucky through the day
today. Low temperatures this morning will generally be in the
upper 20s. However, valleys, particularly in the east, are
expected to be cooler, in the low to mid 20s, due to clear skies
and calm winds. High temperatures today are then expected to reach
the low to mid 50s. Some scattered mid-level cumulus may form for
the afternoon as well, but will dissipate into the evening.

The surface high pressure currently over Kentucky will begin to
shift to the east later this evening, and a low pressure system
will begin to make its way over the Great Plains towards the Ohio
Valley. Because of this pattern change, clouds will be on the
increase overnight tonight. Low temperatures will be in the upper
20s to low 30s, with cooler temperatures in the valleys. However,
with the increasing clouds, the temperature spread between the
ridges and valleys is not expected to be as great as this morning.
Furthermore, due to return flow bringing in warmer air up from
the south, followed guidance suggesting upper 50s and perhaps even
near 60 degrees in spots Wednesday afternoon.

The cold front associated with the low pressure system will then
start to advance over the Commonwealth Wednesday evening. Both the
synoptic and Hi-Res models are in decent agreement with
precipitation onset later on in the evening Wednesday. Therefore,
the bulk of the short term will be mostly dry for eastern
Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019

Models are in reasonably good agreement during the period, with a
typical amount of spread in solutions showing up with time. A
persistent longwave trough over the eastern part of the continent
will continue to dominate the scene early in the period. Within
this, a shortwave trough currently over northern Saskatchewan will
be our most significant factor. It is forecast to dive south and
pick up another more minor trough over the northern Rockies, and
then turn southeast in the mean flow aloft. Models have it
affecting our local area in the Wednesday night-Thursday time
frame. Moisture will be limited, but there's at least a chance of
light showers. At the same time, another wave drops into the
trough further north. All combined, this deepens the eastern North
American trough and moves it further east, and upper level
ridging moves east from the plains to the East Coast during the
weekend. This will result in dry and warmer conditions for our
local area at the end of the week. By the time the weekend
concludes, the ridge dampens as another upper trough (currently
over the east Pacific) propagates eastward and impinges on the
ridge. This coincides with a return of low level flow off the
gulf, and another POP returns to our forecast in the Sunday-Monday
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019

VFR conditions will remain through the period as surface high
pressure continues to dominate the region. Some mid-level cumulus
clouds are possible in the afternoon, but mostly clear skies will
be the main story through the evening. Winds will be light and
variable throughout the period as well.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CGAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...CGAL
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