FXUS63 KLBF 170936

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
336 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

The NAM and RAP models suggest several hours of seeder-feeder
developing south of highway 2 today with the axis of best snow
generally along Interstate 80 around Ogallala. The forecast uses a
blend of the 06z NAM and 00z HREF for 1 to 3 inches of snow. The
HRRR is in good agreement with the RAP and NAM models. Snow growth
potential is good with a saturated column up to 500mb and
temperatures in the column around -10C. Lift is modest but the RAP
and HRRR signal a very favorable zone around Ogallala where 4 inches
of snow may accumulate. Since these models often over-forecast snow
amounts, a blended approach lowers forecast amounts to around 3
inches with highest amounts across Deuel county.

A winter weather advisory is in place today and early this evening
and until the atmosphere moistens, a period of lift freezing drizzle
lasting 1 to 2 hours may develop. This feature is already underway
across Sheridan county but the NDOR travel website indicates no
travel problems at this hour.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

An amplified upper ridge centered over the Great Basin slowly shifts
east this week with its axis bisecting western Nebraska by
Wednesday. A couple shortwaves and cool fronts will ride the ridge,
but due to dry air in the low levels, the only result will be
increased cloud cover. The expanding ridge will also lead to gradual
warmer temperatures, further aided by WAA and downslope flow at H85.
Highs remain cool on Sunday before the ridge kicks in (near 40F),
but widespread 50s are expected by Tuesday. The mildest conditions
are likely Wed and Thu when a 10C thermal ridge ejects onto the High
Plains, when some locations could push 60F. By week's end, the ridge
breaks down over the Upper Midwest and a slightly stronger cold
front comes through the forecast area. Moisture appears sparse
overall, but the forcing may be enough to squeeze out a few rain or
snow showers on Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

For the KLBF terminal: Ceilings will continue to fall overnight
with MVFR ceilings ranging from 1000 to 1500 FT AGL. Ceilings will
increase to 2000 to 3000 FT AGL on Saturday. Light freezing
drizzle will develop overnight and transition to snow by late
Saturday morning. Visibilities will fall off to around 1SM in
association with the snow late Saturday morning through mid
afternoon Saturday. Snow is expected to end by late Saturday
afternoon. For the KVTN terminal: Expect light freezing drizzle or
fog overnight with visibilities down to 2 SM. Ceilings will be
under 1000 FT AGL overnight through mid morning Saturday. Ceilings
will increase by late Saturday morning, becoming VFR mid afternoon
Saturday. Look for clearing skies by Saturday evening.


Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening
for NEZ004-022-035-056>059-069-070.



LONG TERM...Snively
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