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FXUS63 KLBF 290817
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
317 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020

A weak warm front should lift into ncntl Nebraska today. The HREF
continues to indicate light showers or sprinkles along the front.
An upper level disturbance across Oregon this morning should run
the ridge across the Rockies and move through wrn and ncntl
Nebraska late tonight and early Saturday. The risk of strong or
severe weather is low given that lapse rates are almost moist
adiabatic and the NAM suggested Bulk Richardson numbers less than
5. The 40-50kt winds aloft may be too strong for deep convection
given the very modest instability shown in the model.

The temperature forecast today leans on the RAP model which seemed
to perform well Thursday. Thereafter the short term model blend was
the basis for lows tonight and highs Saturday. A fairly strong
backdoor cold front should build into Nebraska in the wake of
the disturbance tonight. The SREF shows a good chance for stratus
banking up across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. This cloud cover could
hold highs in the 60s across ncntl Nebraska Saturday. The rain
forecast tonight uses the short term model blend which is very
close to the HREF.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020

There is little change in the extended forecast philosophy. Cool
high pressure from Canada should drift far enough east Monday for
a strong warming trend across Nebraska. Tonight's model blended
forecast came in a couple of degrees warmer Monday and Tuesday for
highs in the low to mid 90s in many areas.

SPC suggested a marginal severe weather concern Sunday evening
across the Panhandle but none of the models show any storms
developing and the region is under a 14C h700mb cap. Thus, this
forecast is conditional on storm development.

A disturbance moving off the cntl Rockies Tuesday night is the
basis for a chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures aloft at h700mb
cool a few degrees in the wake of the disturbance and this should
produce in slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.
Cooler temperatures aloft Wednesday and a second upper level
disturbance moving through the Rockies is the basis for
Thunderstorm chances Wednesday night.

The risk of severe storms both days is somewhat uncertain. The
location of the instability and strong winds aloft will dictate the
potential for storm development across Nebraska. The predictability
of these features is low at this time. Strong winds aloft Tuesday
night could be across SD favoring that area. This belt of strong
winds descends south Wednesday but sfc high pressure centered over
the Dakotas might push the best instability south and west in KS and
Colo.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Light rain showers or sprinkles are expected to impact both
terminals early Friday morning. Confidence on timing is uncertain.
Otherwise, quiet weather is expected for both terminals for the
remainder of the TAF period. Increasing clouds are expected early
Friday morning lasting into the afternoon, but ceilings will
remain above 6000 feet. Winds remain under 12 knots at both
terminals through Friday evening.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik
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