FXUS63 KLBF 190844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
344 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Ongoing precipitation across north central Nebraska will continue
over the next several hours. At this time, current observations have
been mostly all rain or a rain/snow mix. Have significantly cut down
on snow totals as a result. Still, would not be surprised to see up
to a half inch is some locations especially across Custer county
where cold air and continued precipitation will last the longest.
Otherwise, the central Sandhills and southwest Nebraska could see a
tenth or two of snow.

Any lingering snow early this morning will change back over to all
rain after sunrise and temperatures warm above freezing.
Precipitation quickly exits the area by the afternoon. Highs remain
in the 40s for Tuesday.

High pressure will return for Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
Drier weather and increasing temperatures are expected. Highs
Wednesday will range from the upper 40s in the north to the upper
50s in the south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

High pressure continues into Thursday resulting in drier weather and
rising temperatures through this time. High temperatures climb into
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The next significant chance of precipitation returns on Thursday
night and into the weekend. Uncertainty still remains in the
precipitation type as well as timing of this system. For now will
keep it mostly all rain as high temperatures hover in the 50s and
low temperatures stay in the mid 30 to low 40 range. There may be a
low chance of some rain/snow mix with this system during the
nighttime hours in the north, but confidence is too low to do much
more than to mention it here. There is also a chance of some
thunderstorms mainly on Friday and Saturday afternoons. Again,
confidence is too low to really do anything but mention it here.

Rain chances continue into the beginning of next week. Will keep
precipitation as all rain as temperatures remain above freezing
through this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

A weather system is tracking south toward the area. This will bring
the possibility of scattered precipitation and lower ceilings. It
appears that the higher chance for MVFR conditions will remain
across northern Nebraska today (Tuesday). Winds will become north
around 10 kt with gust to 20 kt during the day today.


Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Light showers have blossomed somewhat in coverage over the last
three hours and are now scattered-numerous from southwest NEB across
central and south central NEB. There have been some reports of snow
or a mix, however, the predominant p-type has been very light rain.
Thinking total rainfall amounts so far have been generally less than
five hundredths of an inch. Of note, radar and MRMS show possibly
higher estimates up to or exceeding a tenth of an inch across Custer
county and south and east so far, however, these estimate don't
match well with corresponding surface obs. Additional precipitation
amounts (rain and melted snowfall) rest of tonight and today are
expected to be less than a tenth from southwest NEB across north
central NEB, except between a tenth to approach two tenths across
Custer county to Wheeler county. As such, do not think this
additional liquid will exacerbate the current situation across north
central NEB.

Otherwise, no change in the flood advisory. Meanwhile, the Elkhorn
river at Ewing and near Atkinson both have high flows still. The
former has been falling and is now below minor flood stage. However,
it has leveled off just below minor flood stage. No change in the
flood warning at this time given potential for additional rise and
the uncertainty of additional rainfall and runoff will have in the
system. Specifically, the upstream gauge at Atkinson has been rising
gradually from early evening on overnight. Of which, Atkinson gauge
had been trending down since late Saturday but has now starting
rising again. Warming trend takes hold Wednesday with above normal
temperatures expected on Thursday (highs in the 50s to mid 60s).
Thus we could see additional rises on rivers, however, expecting
them to generally be minor and that a downward trend by large will
be seen. Will need to look ahead for additional rainfall Friday-
Weekend, however, current forecast is for light amounts across north
central NEB (less than two tenths of an inch).




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