FXUS63 KLBF 240442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1142 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

For tonight, thunderstorm development and extent of severe potential
are the main concerns. Dryline surge now underway across eastern CO
as expected and developing warm front across southwest NE. Large
scale ascent will be increasing in the next couple hours which
should support isolated storms developing, and any that develop in
the environment near the boundaries mentioned will have the
potential to produce severe weather this evening. More widespread
thunderstorm coverage is expected after sunset as the main upper
PV anomaly will move out onto the Plains. Strong moisture
advection ahead of the southward advancing cold front will allow
for a heavy rain setup as well should storms form and remain near
the large scale boundaries.

The upper level low will track across Kansas on Friday. A
persistent deformation zone will remain centered from near
Imperial through North Platte and O'Neill. Areas 25 miles north
and south of this line will receive the heaviest rainfall. total
rainfall through Friday is forecast to range from an inch to an
inch and a half, with local amounts to exceed two inches. There
also remains some weak elevated instability supportive of
isolated thunder within the showers across the southeastern zones.
Colder 850mb temperatures within the deformation cool to around
0C, with the NAm the coldest model. This would be supportive of a
mix of rain or snow from mid morning through mid afternoon.
Current forecast still keeps precip type as all rain. Did lower
high temperatures a few degrees to the lower 40s within the area
of deformation as hourly temperatures during the day actually
dipping into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

As the upper level low moves east Friday night, the deformation
of rain will move east and end Friday evening. This weather
system should effectively end any drought conditions which
currently exist across southwest into central Nebraska.

Will need to monitor rainfall amounts, which are likely to cause
minor river rises, especially along the Platte River system.

An unsettled weather pattern will persist through next Thursday.
First, another upper trough and closed low will move across
northern Kansas on Sunday , with a chance for showers once again.
Next, a deep upper level trough will move across the intermountain
west Monday night, and move slowly east, possibly rotating into
the Central Plains through Thursday. This will keep a persistent
chance for showers to most of the area Monday night thorugh
Thursday. Highs in the lower 60s Monday, range slightly cooler in
the upper 50s Tuesday through Thursday. This remains slightly
cooler, yet near to slightly above normal for this time of year.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

For the KLBF terminal: Expect periods of showers throughout the
overnight and into the day on Friday. Ceilings will fall to MVFR
and remain there through mid evening Friday. Skies will begin to
clear out by late Friday evening. Rain showers will For the KVTN
terminal: MVFR CIGS will set in overnight and persist through
Friday morning. Ceilings will increase during the afternoon hours
with skies clearing by Friday evening.




SHORT TERM...Roberg/Stoppkotte
LONG TERM...Roberg
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