FXUS63 KLBF 232336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

A similar set up is expected for tonight as thunderstorms are
expected once again across portions of western and north central
Nebraska. Compared to yesterday, though, confidence in getting some
thunderstorms and even a couple severe storms is much higher. Again,
while most of the region could see some rain and a possible
thunderstorm, the best locations to see the stronger storms will be
across the eastern Panhandle and northern Nebraska along the South
Dakota border. Storm initiation could start as early as 4 to 5pm
CDT, however, current thinking is the most robust storms will occur
between 8pm and 2am CDT. These storms will diminish as the night
progresses and the environment loses it's daytime instability. Will
include some storms to build back across the eastern portion of the
forecast area (east of a line from Valentine to Broken Bow) in the
early morning hours. These early morning thunderstorms/showers will
be weak with only small hail and wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph
expected. Expecting mild temperatures again tonight with lows only
dropping into the low to mid 60s for locations east of Highway 61.
Slightly cooler temperatures in the mid 50s are possible east of
Highway 61.

For Thursday, a break in active weather returns across the western
and central portion of the forecast area. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms will stick around for locations east of a line from
Broken Bow to Springview. These showers are not expected to be
severe and will be very isolated in nature. Warm air advection into
the region will keep temperatures well above normal on Thursday.
Expect highs to rise into the mid to upper 80s across the entire

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Thunderstorm chances are in place across ncntl Nebraska Thursday
evening but generally east of highway 183. This is because storm
development is in the late afternoon, between Ainsworth and O'Neill.
The environment could be favorable for a few strong or severe
storms. The NAM12 shows some 30-35kt winds at 500mb with bulk shear
around 30kts. The NAM would suggest it is still a multicell
environment with the bulk Richardson number near or over 100.

Once these storms exit, rain chances fall off to isolated Friday
through Sunday and then pick up Monday evening and beyond as an
upper low either shears or tracks through the cntl and nrn Plains.
The better forcing with this system appears to be across the
Dakotas. The ECM actually shows the upper low shearing out before it
reaches Nebraska Tuesday.

The temperature forecast came in another degree warmer with the
warmest day, Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 90s. The upper
level low will encroach upon Nebraska Sunday and Monday and this
will take an edge off the temperatures. The models suggest high
clouds will develop across the Rockies and move through Nebraska.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

The main aviation concern for the next day will be the chance of
thunderstorms again tonight. Thunderstorms currently across Deuel
and southern Garden county and also eastern Boyd and Holt
counties. Expecting increasing coverage of thunderstorms this
evening across the western Sandhills west of hwy 83 through late
evening, then near and east of hwy 83 after midnight. Small hail,
gusty winds to 50 mph, and brief heavy rain possible in the
thunderstorms. Forecast is for VCTS at KLBF and KVTN tonight, due
to limited coverage. VFR conditions return on Thursday morning as
ceilings remain well above 5000 feet and visibilities stay above




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