FXUS63 KLBF 050926
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
326 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
OFF TO THE EAST...THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY SNOWFALL
ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING WILL RELUCTANTLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MISSOURI WHILE AN ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN
PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AID IN KEEPING WIND SPEEDS DOWN TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WITH A
RELATIVELY COLD START TO THE DAY EXPECTED...NOT LOOKING AT MUCH
MIXING TO HELP ERODE A STOUT CAP. BUFR SOUNDING REVEAL LIMITED
MIXING TO POSSIBLY 925MB THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 2-3C BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY. LOOKING AT HIGHS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT OF SATURDAY...WITH MAINLY LOW TO MID 30S
OVER THE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. OVER NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS APPROACHING THE LOW
40S THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
WHERE MID 40S MAY POSSIBLY BE REALIZED. EXPECTING COLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. SO WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE /SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS OVER THE SNOW...UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE/. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE MELTING SNOWPACK. SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW...SO ONLY LEVEL LOW FOG SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. DID NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST JUST
YET...WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY REMAINS A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT INITIALLY
WARM IN ADVANCE OF A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBO DIVING
SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. LOOKING AT HIGHS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT REALIZED TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON HOWEVER
THE FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER...WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION USHERING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
MID WEEK. LOOKING AT HIGHS RETURNING BACK INTO THE MID 20S ON TUESDAY.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS IN
GENERATING LIGHT QPF LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALOFT...THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND PHASE WITH THE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS GREAT BASIN LOW WILL OPEN AND EJECT
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TARGET SOUTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG A FRONTOGENETIC BAND
CENTERED WITHIN THE H75 LEVEL THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS
TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE OF SOLUTIONS...SO CONTINUED TO TREND THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH CHANCE POPS/QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. FURTHER NORTH...CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL RETAIN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. NOT LOOKING AT ANY MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH HIGH
SNOW RATIOS AND 0.05 TO 0.10 OF AN INCH OF QPF...ACCUMULATIONS OF
UP TO AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY AS THERE REMAINS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR POPS AFTER TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE IS INDICATED TO PASS WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE IN
THE WEEK. THE GULF APPEARS TO BE SHUT OFF...SO MOISTURE FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION WILL BE LIMITED. THE GFS IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LATE WEEK WAVE WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DEEP INTRUSION OF COLD
ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE EUROPEAN IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD
AIR. AGREEMENT IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS POOR LATE IN THE
EXTENDED...SO DIDN/T MAKE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE TO THE
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH KLBF AND KVTN FOR REMAINDER OF
06Z TAFS. CURRENT SKC WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z/06TH AS SCATTERED
CIRRUS FILTERS IN. A LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS FOR BOTH TAFS SITES AT OR
BELOW 8 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG



Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page