FXUS64 KLCH 050349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
949 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. SEE NO NEED FOR AN EVENING UPDATE.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008/

UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATOCU GENERALLY FROM 2-3K
FT. SETTLING SOUTH WITH CLEARING LINE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR. ANTICIPATING A CONTINUATION OF THIS SOUTHWARD TREND WHICH
WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES AT OUR SOUTHERN SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
INCLUDING BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE WITH WINDS REMAINING UP AT AROUND 10-12 KNOTS AT ALL
SITES.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008/

DISCUSSION...OUR COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EARLY THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST...NOW LOCATED OVER THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE TO OFF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS EXPECTED
EARLIER TRAILING CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT HAS BEEN DISSIPATING
WITH MOST OF THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA NOW CLOUD-FREE. SFC OBS
INDICATE A RAW AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 50S
WHILE NRLY WINDS BLOW AT 10-20 MPH MAKING IT FEEL MUCH COLDER. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE NRN ZONES...
BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TO EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. AS IS
IT SHOULD STILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINS RANGING FROM RIGHT
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF PARISHES/LAKES
REGION TO MID 30S I-10 CORRIDOR TO AROUND 40 IMMEDIATE COAST/CAJUN
RIVIERA.

MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN FLY
IN THE OINTMENT APPEARS TO BE A COASTAL TROF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
AND A PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
WHICH IS BEING ADVERTISED BY THE NAM/GFS (AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
THE ECMWF). ATTM KEPT SMALL POPS OVER JUST THE COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH
ANY NWD MIGRATION OF THESE FEATURES WOULD LIKELY CARRY PRECIP TO
THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA.

MAIN WEATHER MAKER THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE CROSSING TX BEGINNING MONDAY WHICH IS PROGGED TO SPIN UP
A SFC LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS. GOOD LOW-LVL GRADIENT PROJECTED TO
SET UP BY MONDAY WHICH WILL HELP MOISTEN UP THE AIRMASS
SIGNIFICANTLY PRIOR TO THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS THEN PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS A LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS BETTER REFINE THE RAIN THREAT AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THIS NEXT EVENT.

MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES WEAKENING THE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE
WATERS. CURRENT SCA EXPIRES AT 15Z FRIDAY WHICH STILL LOOKS GOOD
BASED ON LATEST PROJECTIONS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO A
MORE SRLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. STRONG SRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY
BEFORE FROPA ON TUESDAY...WHEN STRONG NRLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
GFS IS ADVERTISING GALE FORCE WINDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...
FORTUNATELY THIS IS BEYOND THE TIME FRAME OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 36 53 35 60 42 / 0 0 10 10 10
KBPT 36 53 36 61 43 / 0 10 10 10 10
KAEX 32 52 30 60 36 / 0 0 10 10 10
KLFT 36 54 33 60 39 / 0 0 10 10 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




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