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FXUS64 KLCH 240456
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1156 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
For 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Other than the addition of thunder late in the forecast period for
the wrn sites as the mid/upper-level shortwave approaches, no
significant changes to previous TAF thinking.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 957 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...850 mb winds progged to slip into LLJ criteria as
the night progresses across the area with the eastward advance of
south plains cyclone. Low level moisture will be on the increase
with the uptick of low level southerly winds resulting in stratus
development, but winds will be sufficiently strong to keep clouds
elevated. Thus fog not expected. Forecast looks good and no
changes coming.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
For 00z TAF issuance.

AVIATION...
Satellite imagery shows afternoon cu has mostly dissipated as
heating wanes. With good low-level moisture in place, expecting
lower ceilings to develop later tonight as cooling takes place and
the nocturnal inversion develops. Not expecting much in the way of
restrictions to visibility though as winds should stay up thanks
to increasing low-level jetting off the sfc. Conditions should
eventually become VFR tomorrow once heating commences...main
aviation issue will be the strong srly winds as the elevated winds
aloft mix down.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Areas of fog burned off this morning as drier air pushed in from
the east. Skies cleared by the late morning hours as temperatures
soared into the low to mid 80s.

Look for the lowest temperatures this evening before the winds
begin to pick up a bit dragging the higher dew points in the
coastal waters on shore and into southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana overnight. Not looking for any fog as winds will remain
up enough to provide mixing.

The upper level system that we have been watching for the last
few days will move out of the rockies as a cold front pushes into
west Texas tonight. This system will move eastward during the day
as the region will remain in the warm slot. With diurnal heating
and instability tomorrow look for storms late in the day. Storms
will continue through the overnight hours. There is a chance that
some storms may become severe. The main threat will be straight
line winds. Rainfall totals are expected around 1/2 of an inch.
Rains ending during the late morning hours Saturday as drier air
pushes in. Sunday looks dry but storms will return on Monday as
the next system pushes into our region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 63 80 64 81 / 10 20 80 30
LCH 64 81 67 81 / 10 20 70 30
LFT 64 81 68 82 / 10 20 70 50
BPT 65 81 67 81 / 10 20 70 20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for GMZ470-472-475.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ470-
472-475.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION through Friday afternoon for GMZ430-
432-435.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION through Friday afternoon for GMZ450-
452-455.

&&

$$


AVIATION...04
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