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FXUS64 KLCH 161428
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
928 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.UPDATE...Warm and humid conditions with a minimal amount of
shower activity prevail across the area this morning, however a
decaying mcs is approaching the lakes region. Outflow from the mcs
is expected to move into the SETX and perhaps CenLA this afternoon
which will increase rain chances. This is already reflected in the
grids and no changes are needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...
For the 16/12Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
Some low clouds hanging around KAEX this early morning with IFR
ceilings. These ceilings should lift to VFR by 16/14Z. Remainder
of the terminals should see VFR conditions through the morning
into the afternoon. Possibility of some thunderstorm activity
later this afternoon into early evening as daytime heating will
work with a left over boundary from tonight's storms over in
northeast Texas. Some hi-res data showing this activity skirting
into portions of central Louisiana and southeast Texas. Therefore,
will mention VCTS at KBPT/KAEX this afternoon with a TEMPO group
after 16/21-22Z at these sites to account for storms moving into
the area.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term [Today through Tuesday]

This morning's national radar mosaic shows convection ongoing
across much of the Central Plains associated with a MCV over
central Oklahoma. The evolution of this MCV and the associated
convection is resulting in a fair amount of uncertainty for the
weather forecast across the CWA over the next 24-36 hours. There
will likely be periods of showers and thunderstorms across the
region during this time frame with the exact placement and timing
highly depend on the evolution of a series of MCSs.

The first MCS is currently located over the Dallas-Fort Worth
Metroplex and moving to the south and east. Convective allowing
model guidance has this complex weakening as it moves southeast
through early this morning and eventually dissipating. However,
both the NAM Nest and HRRR have the system approaching the NW
corner of the CWA this morning before dissipating. Therefore,
there is at least a chance for some thunderstorms in addition to
streamer showers across southeast Texas this morning.

Just how far south and east this morning's MCS progresses will
have a large influence on the potential for thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The outflow from this morning's MCS will
result in a differential heating boundary developing somewhere
across north-central Texas during the morning. Convection is
expected to initiate along this boundary this afternoon and will
likely grow upscale into another MCS that will move to the south
and east. Where this second MCS develops will ultimately determine
whether more widespread thunderstorms will move through the CWA
late this afternoon into this evening.

Currently, the forecast has streamer showers moving inland from
the Gulf across southeast Texas during the morning hours. Then
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
entire CWA from mid-morning through the afternoon hours. By late
this afternoon into this evening, it is possible that a line of
strong thunderstorms could be moving through southeast Texas.
Should a more widespread line of thunderstorms develop, one or
two of them could produce damaging winds. Shower and thunderstorm
activity should then diminish during the late evening hours.
However, given the uncertainty involved, this forecast will likely
change as the day progresses and the overall evolution of
convection becomes (hopefully) clearer.

The evolution of today's convection will also have an affect on
how convection on Monday and Tuesday play out. Therefore, some
uncertainty will continue during this time frame. However, upper
level support for ascent due to a shortwave trough moving across
the lower Mississippi River Valley during this time will likely
result in showers and thunderstorms being more widespread on
Monday and Tuesday.

Long Term [Wednesday through Saturday]

Relatively zonal flow is forecast to persist across the CONUS
through the week. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to
progress eastward through the zonal flow and result in chances for
showers and thunderstorms continuing each day.

Model guidance continues indicating that the upper level pattern
will begin to change late in the week with a trough digging along
the West Coast. However, there is a fair amount of uncertainty
with respect to how amplified and progressive this trough will be.
Overall, height rises will likely begin to occur across the CWA
and allow for temperatures to warm slightly. Meanwhile, PWAT
values will remain near the climatological mean of 1.5" which will
result in daily 20%-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms
continuing into next weekend.

MARINE...

Moderate southerly winds will continue today, mainly across the
western coastal waters, with winds of 10 to 15 knots with
occasional gusts above 20 knots possible. Thunderstorms will be
possible across the coastal waters from this afternoon through the
overnight hours. Winds and seas are forecast to improve on Monday
and Tuesday but chances for thunderstorms will linger over the
coastal waters. During the second half of the week, winds and seas
are expected to increase again and Small Craft Exercise Caution
or Advisory headlines may be needed after Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 92 72 90 72 / 40 10 70 20
LCH 90 76 89 76 / 10 20 50 20
LFT 93 75 91 75 / 10 10 50 20
BPT 90 76 90 76 / 30 30 50 20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning for
GMZ450-452-470-472.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05
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