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FXUS64 KLCH 172006
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
206 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A really nice Saturday afternoon with temperatures
climbing into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.
Clouds were increasing with some lower clouds near
the surface and mid to high level clouds aloft.
Radar was quiet.

Surface high pressure continues to move east and
winds have turned southerly on the extreme southwest
side of the high bubble. A cold front was located across
the southern Texas Panhandle extending into central
Oklahoma.

Broad troughing aloft across the United States continues
this afternoon with a short wave digging southward into
the Colorado Rockies. This shortwave will continue to drop
southeastward along with the frontal boundary with showers
developing across the extreme western portions of southeast
Texas late on Sunday. Rain chances will continue to climb
Sunday night into Monday as the frontal boundary moves through
the area. Expect rain to taper off with just a scattered chance by
Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will briefly bring more stable
conditions for Tuesday night.

The next upper level shortwave trough is forecast to progress
across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi River Valley
Wednesday and Thursday. The associated surface low pressure will
result in another period of increased showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms for our area Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Lingering showers are expected for Thursday.

For the remainder of the 7 day forecast Friday and
Saturday...short waves continue to sweep through the central and
southern us. Therefore...this pattern does result in rain
remaining in the forecast but lower probabilities.

In summary...warmer conditions to continue through Sunday as
gulf moisture increases. Rain chances will increase with the next
frontal boundary as it sweeps through our area late Monday and
Monday night. Temperatures will then remain not to far below
normal through Wednesday with the next pacific shortwave bringing
in additional rains. A warmup then begins by the end of the
forecast package with just above normal temperatures.

&&

.MARINE...
An onshore flow will continue into late Sunday before the next
cold front arrives into the coastal waters in the wee hours of
early Monday morning. The front will waffle in the northern Gulf
until reinforcment surge of fresh offshore winds arrives Tuesday.

Multiple upper level disturbances and surface troughs over the
Western Gulf will bring increased chances of precipitation Monday
through Thursday, along with moderate offshore winds and higher
seas during this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 45 70 49 61 / 0 0 30 40
LCH 51 72 53 65 / 0 10 20 50
LFT 48 72 53 67 / 0 0 20 30
BPT 55 72 53 63 / 0 20 30 50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06
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