FXUS64 KLCH 242315

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
615 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

00Z taf issuance.


Scattered showers continue across Inland Southeast Texas and
Central Louisiana late this afternoon. With the upper level
weakness continuing over the region keeping instability present,
will continue inherited VCSH in all terminals this evening and
overnight. Another day of above average coverage of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms expected Friday, likely to begin in the
coastal waters in the morning, and move inland during the day with
the afternoon heating.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018/

Little change is seen tonight through Friday as upper level
troughing continues to hold along and east of the area. Daytime
showers and thunderstorms will be on the downswing this evening and
tonight but fire up again on Friday especially across the eastern
area of our county warning area. As we get into the weekend...all
eyes will be on the disturbance over the eastern Yucatan which is
expected to move into the southeast Gulf late Friday night into
Saturday. NHC continues to monitor this disturbance and believes
this could become a tropical system by late Saturday night. Both
the ECMWF/GFS model solutions keep the developing system over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico mostly through Saturday but then move it a
little north northwest on Sunday. Central and Eastern Gulf States
will likely see the largest impacts of any developing system.
However...all of the north Gulf States will be watching closely
as the system takes shape since tropical systems can be erratic in
the speed and track.

If the system does behaves well, we should begin to see some drier
air working on the west side of the developing system to start next
week. If not...we may stay in a wet weather pattern until the
expected system dissipates and moves away. At this time, and with
current available information...will go with a drier pattern next

Stay abreast of any tropical weather development by going to
www.nhc.noaa.gov for tropical updates.

Light winds and seas will continue into late Saturday night with
a gradual increase in winds and seas Sunday through Tuesday
between Cameron and the Lower Atchafalaya River coastal waters as
low pressure moves into the northern central Gulf Waters.


AEX 71 91 70 91 / 30 40 30 40
LCH 72 89 73 90 / 30 50 20 50
LFT 74 89 72 90 / 30 70 30 70
BPT 73 90 72 91 / 30 50 10 30




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