FXUS64 KLCH 290821

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
321 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020


Short Term [Today and Saturday]

This morning's water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper level
trough remains centered over the Mississippi River Valley. This
trough is forecast to begin progressing eastward today as a
shortwave trough in the northern portion of the jet stream digs
southeastward out of central Canada. At the surface, a weak cold
front will progress southward through the day. As it progresses
southward, the front could provide enough forcing for ascent to
trigger isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly
during the afternoon hours. Given that upper level support for
ascent should be decreasing as the trough axis shifts east of the
region, convection will likely not be as widespread as it has been
the past several days. Additionally, convection is not expected
to be as vigorous as it has been the past few days. However, an
isolated strong thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out this

Upper level heights are expected to rise over the CWA on Saturday
and surface high pressure will begin to filter into the area.
This will result in drier and warmer conditions for most of the
CWA although an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible
across southeastern Acadiana during the afternoon hours.

Long Term [Sunday through Thursday]

Overall, little has changed compared to the previous forecast
package with regards to the reasoning behind the long term
period forecast. An upper level ridge will continue to build into
the area. Drier air and increasing subsidence will result in less
cloud cover and little to no chance of rainfall. Meanwhile,
daytime temperatures will trend upward, with highs expected to
reach the lower 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday. By this time, winds
will be becoming more southeasterly, bringing higher dewpoints
back into the region, and the combination of increasing relative
humidity values with the warmer temperatures will result in heat
index values climbing into the upper 90s or near 100 degrees
during the day. This is below heat advisory criteria, but worthy
of a reminder to take precautionary measures during any outside

Low rainfall chances will return near the end of next week as
onshore flow results in increasing PWATs and weakness develops
along the southern periphery of the ridge aloft.



A weak surface front will push through the coastal waters today
resulting in light offshore flow. This front could also trigger a
few showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters during the
day. Light to moderate offshore flow will continue through the
weekend as high pressure builds into the area. Winds will shift to
easterly early next week followed by onshore flow redeveloping
during the middle of the week as high pressure shifts east of the


AEX 86 64 85 61 / 10 0 0 0
LCH 87 68 88 66 / 10 10 10 0
LFT 87 69 87 67 / 10 10 10 0
BPT 86 69 88 68 / 10 10 0 0




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