FXUS64 KLCH 181211

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
611 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

Dense fog to hold in thru the late mrng hrs... w/ LIFR becmg IFR.
Drg the aftn hrs cloud deck xpcd to rmn blw 030 MVFR. Ceilings to
drop drg the eve hrs w/ shwrs in se Tx around midnight and tstms
following drg the early mrng hrs. Areas of fg/br and low ceilings
acrs srn La w/ storms movg in aftr midnight...IFR/LIFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019/

Dense fog blankets the area this morning with all observing
stations reporting some degree of visibility reduction and many
down to 1/4 mile or less. While the inland fog is primarily
radiational in nature and not very deep, sea fog has also
developed over the nearshore coastal waters where the relatively
cool (55ish degree) water temperatures are interacting with low to
mid 60 degree air. The inland fog is expected to erode in the
usual manner with unlimited visibilities expected by 10 AM.
However, there is some uncertainty with regards to the marine fog
with the HRRR showing dissipation by late morning while the NAM
and some of the high res guidance maintain the fog through much of
the afternoon. Opted to maintain the present forecast which keeps
a dense fog advisory over the coastal waters until noon. This may
need to be extended if no signs of improvement are observed by mid
to late morning.

Southerly winds will increase by this afternoon along with the
initialization of isolated showers as a surface low moves
southeast into north Texas. This low will swing a frontal boundary
through the area late tonight into early Saturday morning. The
front will be accompanied by a squall line. A few stronger storms
may be possible within this line, but as they have for the last
several days, forecast guidance remains fairly anemic with regards
to instability.

Breezy northwesterly winds will develop across the area in the
wake of the front Saturday with strong winds with frequent gusts
to gale force expected over the coastal waters. A gale watch has
been hoisted for both the inner and outer coastal waters from 12Z
Saturday until 12Z Sunday.

Sunny and cool conditions will prevail Sunday and Monday as high
pressure dominates the central U.S. The coldest temperatures with
this airmass look to occur Sunday morning with a light freeze
expected north of I-10. Temperatures begin to modify on Monday
in advance of the next synoptic system progged to move another
front through the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. There remains
considerable disagreement with regards to the exact timing of this
feature as guidance has been bouncing back and forth in terms of
forward speed and intensity. The forecast will continue to
maintain scattered showers both Tuesday and Wednesday until better
consistency is established.


Areas of dense fog over the nearshore Gulf waters and adjacent
lakes and bays will persist through the morning before eroding by
early afternoon. Light southerly winds begin to strengthen this
afternoon as a low pressure system and cold front approach from
the west. The front will move through tonight into Saturday
morning accompanied by a squall line. A strong offshore flow with
frequent gusts to gale force and rough seas will develop in the
wake of the front. Winds and seas will subside on Sunday as high
pressure builds into the area, with an onshore flow returning
Monday as the high moves off to the east.


AEX 67 56 58 29 / 20 90 30 0
LCH 68 59 60 33 / 20 80 20 0
LFT 71 61 63 34 / 10 70 60 0
BPT 69 57 58 33 / 30 80 10 0


LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ027>033-

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ180-201-

GM...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ430-432-435-450-



Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page