FXUS64 KLCH 171740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1240 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

For 18Z 07/17/18 TAF issuance


No major changes to the afternoon TAF package with VFR conditions
expected to largely prevail through the forecast period. More
expansive cloud cover expected in the eastern terminals where
moisture remains high. Ridging will help keep precipitation
chances low at LCH/BPT but enough weakness exists in the higher
moisture airmass in the east to warrant VCSH at AEX/LFT/ARA.
Bumped back onset of VCSH to late afternoon though to keep more in
line with current radar trends. Otherwise only other thing of
note is maybe some minor visibility restrictions again owing to
some Saharan dust in the region. Winds to become light and
variable after sunset with an isolated shower or two possible
overnight around LFT/ARA, but chances appear low enough to keep
VCSH out of TAFs at this time. By morning expect winds to once
again pick up out of the west with some scattered high clouds.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 842 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018/

UPDATE...Hot and humid conditions can be expected today with
temperatures running near 5 degrees above climo averages. Minimal
rain chances are expected over most of the region, except along
the Atchafalaya Basin. This is in line with the previous forecast
and no changes are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018/

Quiet night across the region with weak southerly flow at the
surface and high clouds moving east to west across the region.
Temperatures had a narrow range across the area from the upper 70s
to near 80. Radar indicated patches of light rain outside in
southwest Mississippi and southeast Louisiana this morning.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate our landscape
today with perhaps an isolated shower or thunderstorm along our
extreme eastern parts of central and south central Louisiana where
weak boundaries from leftover convection may initiate new
development. In addition...weak upper level impulses may just graze
the eastern edge and therefore prudent to just leave a slight chance
in for this afternoon and tonight. For Wednesday and Wednesday
Night... likely to see a few more storms develop as high pressure
slowly retrogrades a bit west allowing for a weakness in the
pressure field aloft and perhaps stronger impulses moving north to
south across the eastern areas of our Louisiana parishes. In
addition...at the surface...a weak front will meander southward
and should help to trigger additional activity. Otherwise...
temperatures will remain above normal as we stay within the
confines of the summer pattern.

There is an ozone action day for Calcasieu parish through 9 pm
this evening.

The stagnate weather pattern will see afternoon temperatures
slowly climbing into the mid to upper 90s late this week and into
the weekend. Heat indices are expected to reach Heat Advisory
Criteria by Thursday "108 degrees" in locations across interior
southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. Heat Advisories are
expected to continue into the weekend. What will be driving this
heat wave is the ridge aloft that will hold storms and clouds in
check allowing for plenty of sunshine. In addition... we are
approaching the hottest portion of the year... this little event
happens during the first to the middle part of August. Remember if
you are working outside take frequent breaks out of the sun...
drink plenty of fluids...dress in light loose fitting clothing...
check on your neighbors and finally make sure the animals have
plenty of water.


AEX 76 95 75 96 / 10 20 10 30
LCH 79 94 78 93 / 10 20 10 20
LFT 78 93 77 93 / 20 40 10 50
BPT 78 93 77 94 / 0 10 10 10


LA...Ozone Action Day until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ041.



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