FXUS64 KLCH 260423
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018
For the 26/06Z TAF Issuance.
Most of the shower activity over land has come to an end, however,
a few showers are already developing over the coastal waters. A
period of VFR conditions are expected for the next few hours until
about 26/09Z. Then, places that have experienced clearing skies
and light winds, will have the possibility of some MVFR type
visibilities and ceilings. Also, at that time, some of coastal
terminals will begin to see some of the expected nocturnal Gulf
shower activity move in.
On Wednesday, looks like a frontal system will move down to just
north of the forecast area, with Gulf moisture pooling ahead of
the front. Therefore, should be a good bit of convection starting
early in the day and continuing through the afternoon. Tried to
match up tempo groups to the best times activity may affect each
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 933 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018/
UPDATE...A few showers and storms continue across CenLA and South
Central LA this evening. Quieter conditions are found in west LA
and TX, however showers and storms are expected to redevelop early
Wednesday and move inland. This is reflected in the current
forecast and no changes are needed at this time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018/
Overall, not much has changed with the forecast or the reasoning
behind it over the past 24 hours. A cold front currently
extending from Iowa southwest into the Texas Panhandle is
expected to continue moving southward tomorrow and Thursday. The
eastern periphery of the front is expected to slow and weaken as
it approaches the CWA before stalling offshore this weekend. The
combination of forcing for ascent and PWAT exceeding the 90th
percentile for late September will result in showers and
thunderstorms being likely across the CWA on Wednesday and
Thursday. Outside of being cooled by steadier rainfall, this cold
front will likely only decrease temperatures to near normal given
the above normal 850 hPa temperatures in place across the region.
This weekend, a 590 dam ridge at 500 hPa located over the western
Atlantic is forecast to build westward into the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico. This will result in PoPs gradually decreasing and
temperatures gradually returning to above normal during the early
part of next week.
An approaching cold front will result in increasing showers and
thunderstorms over the coastal waters through Thursday. The front
is expected to stall along the coast or just offshore on Friday
and remain nearby through the weekend. This will result in
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms along with light
winds and seas. By early next week, an area of high pressure over
the Mid Atlantic is forecast to build westward into the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico resulting in predominately east to
southeast flow. This will result in seas increasing during the
early to middle part of next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 73 85 69 81 / 30 70 60 50
LCH 75 85 73 82 / 50 70 60 60
LFT 75 84 72 83 / 40 70 60 60
BPT 76 85 73 80 / 40 70 60 60
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