FXUS64 KLCH 200105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
805 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...An increase in pops was needed across portions of
Central Louisiana for the evening hours as a line heads west
across Rapides and Avoyelles. Hi-Res guidance indicates that the
convection should decrease before through the next 2 to 4 hours.
Elsewhere across the area the forecast remains unchanged.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/

For the 20/00Z TAF Issuance.

Scattered convection still ongoing and should continue for the
next few hours, with activity diminishing after 20/02Z. Most
significant activity will be around the KAEX terminal and will
carry VCTS at that location with VCSH elsewhere. Once convection
dissipates, VFR conditions to prevail overnight. No significant
pattern change for Tuesday, therefore abundant Gulf moisture and
daytime heating will combine to produce a decent coverage of
showers and thunderstorms, with showers nearing the southern
terminals by 20/14Z and all terminals with a chance of showers and
storms at all terminals after 20/18Z.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/

Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the area remaining under the
influence of high pressure centered over the wrn Atlantic, ridging
wwd across the nrn Gulf, and maintaining a very moist srly low-
level flow across the region. Water vapor imagery shows ridging
aloft remaining to our west while weak troffing is noted over the
ern 1/3 of the country. Local 88Ds show plenty of showers/storms
popping up over the area, mainly along the inland-moving sea
breeze and other outflows. Sfc obs show another hot and muggy day
ongoing with temps away from rain-cooled areas in the 90s and
heat index values in the upper 90s to triple digits.

Not many changes to the inherited grids/zones this afternoon. In
the near term, expect scattered convection to linger through the
remainder of the afternoon before dissipating with sunset/loss of
heating. All guidance is showing our persistent nocturnal
maritime convection later tonight with the distinct possibility
that some of this activity could move ashore into the coastal
zones and lower Acadiana. With the area remaining in a relative
weakness aloft, expect more scattered/numerous showers/storms to
develop tomorrow with heating. High temps will be tempered a bit
by the cloud cover/precip, but heat index values could approach
105F or so by the noon hour before convection becomes more
widespread...therefore, no heat advisory is planned at this time.

As we move through mid-week, the ridge axis to our west is progged
to drift wwd somewhat and our flow aloft transitions to more of a
zonal flow which may help reduce some convective potential across
the nrn 1/3 of the forecast area. Closer to the coast, elevated
rain chances are still the norm, but may be a touch lower than the
previous day or two. Temps will remain warm, especially across the
nwrn zones where mid 90s look prevalent.

Guidance is still suggesting a weak wave in the wrn Gulf which
will begin to pump in more moisture to the region by the weekend.
Still no sign of a sfc reflections showing up in latest model
runs, but regardless the combo of the wave with the enhanced
moisture spells high rain chances for the weekend/end of the
forecast period.

A mostly light onshore flow is expected to continue through the
forecast period with high pressure generally in control.


AEX 75 93 75 93 / 50 40 20 40
LCH 78 90 78 91 / 20 60 20 50
LFT 75 90 76 91 / 20 70 20 60
BPT 79 90 78 91 / 20 40 20 30




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