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FXUS64 KLIX 260846
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
346 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...
No major changes to the forecast. Showers are currently ongoing
across the MS/LA coasts this morning and this will continue
throughout the day. Showers and storms will continue to develop
over the entire forecast area through the afternoon hours.
Convection will be diurnally driven today, but showers and storms
could linger later into the evening hours and redevelop over the
early morning hours over the next few days. The atmosphere is
still rather moist as PW values are still over 2 inches. This
means that any shower or storm will be efficient rain producers.
A front will push into the area later on Today into Thursday and
will increase convection around the area. This front will stall
across the region and will keep rain chances elevated through the
rest of the week. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s.
Little change in the pattern through Saturday. Guidance still
points to a ridge building into the area by the beginning of next
week with slightly lower rain chances in the 30 to 40 percent
range.

&&

.AVIATION...
VCSH or even VCTS will be needed today and possibly tomorrow as well
as long term prevailing as rain chances will be around 80%.
Terminals near the coast will get this during the morning hours as
well while those farther inland will have these conditions toward
late morning and afternoon. Nocturnal sh/ts will keep at least
mention for coastal sites as well tonight.


&&

.MARINE...
Scattered to numerous sh/ts will continue to move over the coastal
waters for the next several days. A lax pressure gradient will give
way to winds less than 15kt for the most part except near and in
thunderstorms. A cold front will make its way to near the gulf coast
but is expected to stall tonight into Thursday before returning
north. This will just act to keep the sh/ts going as it should help
pool deep moisture to the south of the boundary.


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
Deployed: None
Activation: None
Activities: None

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for Slight risk severe or
excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rain; direct tropical threats; Events of National
Significance.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 85 69 82 68 / 80 50 70 30
BTR 85 71 84 70 / 80 50 70 20
ASD 87 72 86 71 / 70 50 80 40
MSY 86 73 86 74 / 70 50 70 30
GPT 86 73 84 73 / 80 50 70 40
PQL 88 72 86 72 / 80 50 70 40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$
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