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FXUS64 KLIX 172148
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
348 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
No major changes in the forecast this afternoon. High pressure
will shift east over the next few days and this will allow for
some moderation in the temperatures. We will nicely rebound to
near 70 for a high on Sunday. Not expecting much in the way of
rainfall over the few days. Model guidance suggests a weak cold
front moving through the area on Monday. This should not have an
impact in the forecast as the atmosphere is relatively dry. There
may be a few showers Monday as it pushes through, but the greater
chance of rain still looks to come by late next week. Models still
point to a shortwave will moving across the area on Thanksgiving
Day. The ECMWF and now the GFS has most of the rain remaining
offshore. Have not made major changes in POPs this forecast.
Clouds/precipitation likely to hold high temperatures down on
Thanksgiving Day, otherwise temperatures should be near to above
normal for the extended period. Ensemble numbers from both GFS and
ECMWF don't show much spread on temperatures between their
members, so haven't had to make much in the way of adjustments.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly clear skies and good visibility will mean VFR conditions
should prevail through Sunday afternoon. The exception will be at
KHUM, KBTR, KHDC KMCB and KASD where some patchy fog may
occasionally restrict the visibility into the 4 to 5 mile range from
09 to 14z Sunday morning. Winds are expected to remain generally
light. 18

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high over the central Gulf coast region will remain over the
region through the weekend into Monday. As a result, east to
northeast winds around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less
across all waters through Monday. Northeast to east winds are
expected to rise into the 10 to 15 knots range across western waters
Tuesday and 15 to 20 knots over western waters on Wednesday as an
inverted trough of low pressure develops off the Texas coast. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: River flood warnings along Pearl River at Bogalusa and
Pearl River.
River flood warning along Mississippi River at Red River
Landing

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend

Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats;
Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 42 67 48 67 / 0 0 10 20
BTR 43 67 50 68 / 0 0 10 20
ASD 43 68 51 70 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 48 67 54 69 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 45 68 51 68 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 42 70 49 70 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$
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