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FXUS64 KLIX 052253
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
553 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.DISCUSSION...All eyes are on Tropical Storm Cristobal right now
however there is something else in the next 4-6 hours we need to
watch closely and that is an area of convection quickly surging
south towards central MS.

Tonight main concern is the MCS working south through MS. Currently
the thinking is that there is enough instability to work with(even
though we will be well beyond peak heating) it is moving rather fast
before there area stabilizes and as long as convection can remain
rooted near the edge of the cold pool there is a good chance it
will make it all the way to the CWA if not to the I 10/12
corridor. Main concern would be rather strong winds especially if
any storm is severe. There is a lot of DCAPE to work with as well
so we will need to watch for winds if this MCS maintains itself.

Now to the main concern, TS Cristobal. Cristobal was upgraded back
to a tropical storm around midday as it moved back over water. A
plethora of products were issued earlier today and then many got
upgraded to tropical storm and storm surge warnings with the 4pm
package. In addition to the warnings we also have a coastal flood
advisory out of coastal areas not in a storm surge watch or warning.
The Areal Flood Watch remains in effect as well. For more
information regarding watches and warnings please refer to the HLS
(Hurricane Local Statement).

Cristobal is expected to continue to move north through the
forecast. Currently it is moving faster than anticipated but this is
expected to slow down overnight tonight and tomorrow as a ridge
builds from the southern Plains over into the Mid and portions of
the Lower MS Valley. That should really slow down the forward motion
but the ridge is expected to slide far enough east which will lead
to Cristobal continuing to move north and speed up once again
Monday.

The bulk of the impacts will be north and east of the forward
motion. There is a lot of dry air to the west which should keep
Cristobal rather asymmetric so there will likely be a rather sharp
cutoff from a lot of rain to very little rain. Impacts will
likely begin to be felt late tomorrow night as rain begin to move
in and winds increase over the coastal water. The main time frame
for Cristobal will be pretty much overnight Saturday through the
day Sunday and into Monday. Winds will pick up over land overnight
Saturday and through the day Sunday and then should slowly slack
off overnight Sunday night. At this time no inland tropical Storm
warnings have been issued but a few parishes and counties inland
may need to be added with the 10pm or 4am advisory overnight.

As for coastal flooding again for more details on values and
locations of watches and warnings refer to the HLS. As for time
frame tides are already increasing and onshore flow is only expected
to increase along with the fetch and wind speed increasing, this
will continue to drive more water into the coast. Even after
Cristobal pulls away the onshore flow will remain strong so tides
will be very slow to fall. This could even be worse near rivers
if there is a lot of rain.

By Tuesday and through the rest of the forecast, stuck close to the
NBM as the main concern is convection tonight and Cristobal. Overall
forecast looks quiet as a ridge builds to the west and nudges into
the area with generally warm and mostly dry weather anticipated for
the area. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...Overall things will only begin to go downhill over the
coastal waters. Tropical Storm Warnings have already been issued for
all of the coastal waters. Tropical storm force winds are expected
to begin to move into the outer waters as early as tomorrow
afternoon and then spread across the coastal waters through the
evening. For more information regarding this please refer to the
Marine Weather Warning (MWW). Strong onshore flow will continue into
Tuesday even as Cristobal moves away. Already hit on coastal
flooding and tidal issues earlier. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...Overall VFR conditions should persist however, we are
watching convection to the north that is surging south and could
impacts MCB/BTR/HDC and maybe ASD/MSY/NEW. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 88 72 83 / 60 20 20 60
BTR 73 89 74 83 / 40 20 20 70
ASD 72 89 72 83 / 30 30 50 80
MSY 76 87 76 83 / 30 30 50 80
GPT 74 85 73 82 / 20 30 50 80
PQL 72 87 71 83 / 20 40 50 80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ040-049-050-056>070-072.

Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-040-
046>050-056>072.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ040-050-058-
060-061-072.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-
557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ080>082.

Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MSZ077-080>082.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ082.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-
570-572-575-577.

&&

$$
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