FXUS65 KLKN 260844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
144 AM PDT Wed Sep 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will likely last through the weekend.
Temperatures will warm this week as well.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.

Northwest flow in exiting central North American trough over the
Great Basin this morning. A ridge sits over the northeast Pacific
with a strengthening closed low south of the high. This developing
quasi-block will drift east with the low taking the advantage and
pumping up a bit of a short ridge over the west coast by Thursday.
Result will be a slow warming trend and continued dry.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Wednesday.

A low pressure system in the northeast of Hawaii will slowly move
towards the northern CA coast Friday and Saturday. Southwest
winds will increase across parts of central and eastern NV
Saturday afternoon as an associated jet moves through the region.
However, latest model runs show a more northern track to this
system which would keep Nevada essentially dry and windy Saturday
and into Sunday.

Another short wave is expected to move into the northern CA coast
Monday. At the same time, mid to upper-level moisture streaming
north and northeastward from tropical storm Rosa could
interact with the short wave bringing the potential for heavier
rain mainly across eastern Nye county and White Pine county
Monday into Tuesday. Computer models are still struggling on when
and how much tropical moisture will move into central Nevada so
forecast confidence remains low.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions with SKC to FEW300 and light winds
expected at all northern and central Nevada TAF sites through
Thursday morning.


.FIRE WEATHER...Slow warming trend through the week with generally
light winds. Very dry, no rain. Be on the lookout for the weekend
and beyond as a change in the weather is possible...HOWEVER...the
models are not handling this very well so exactly what will happen
is still uncertain.




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