FXUS65 KLKN 182209

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
309 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...After one more sunny day, unsettled spring weather
arrives for Wednesday and Thursday. Expect mixed precipitation
with rain and snow showers, and snow and ice pellets may accompany
any afternoon thunderstorms.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday.
High pressure ridge axis remains positioned over the Great Basin
for one more day. The warming trend for the past several days
reaches its peak on Tuesday afternoon. The closed low circulation
over the eastern Pacific slowly moves toward California during the
next two days, bringing southerly flow aloft and increasing
clouds. Showers are expected to develop over central Nevada late
Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, spreading north during the
day. Only the Jackpot area my stay dry through Thursday. Otherwise
much of the forecast area will have some showers, numerous across
the central portion of the state or along US Highways 6 and 50.
Sufficient moisture and instability exist that thunderstorms are
possible, with the best chance for convective activity over the
west and central parts. Snow levels will rise to around 7000 feet
by Wednesday afternoon, but will show a diurnal fluctuating range
like falling to the valley floors at night and around daybreak.
Typical spring weather where any given spot receives a mixture of
rain/snow showers or snow pellets.

Thursday, current model consensus indicates the upper low will
drift across southern Nevada into Arizona, with easterly return
flow over east central Nevada. Numerous showers persist across the
central, becoming less numerous north of I80. More than a half
inch of precipitation may fall over the Great Basin Natl Park.
Accumulating snow will be primarily limited to the mountain
summits above 7000 feet. Thunderstorms will be possible across
much of the state.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Monday.
Nevada will be in between weather systems on Thursday night and
Friday, although a few light showers will exist during this time.
But the next trough axis slowly slides across the Great Basin
Friday night and Saturday, before departing the region by Sunday
evening. Trough will be weakening or getting stretched as it moves
across the state, but convective component will generate
scattered showers, centered on Saturday afternoon. Ridge will be
positioned over the interior west Monday for sunny conditions and
warmer temperatures.


.AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and light winds prevail at all TAF
sites through the forecast period.




Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page