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FXUS65 KLKN 181214
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
414 AM PST Fri Jan 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...There will be a few lingering showers today as high
pressure begins to build over the Great Basin region. By day's
end, precipitation chances will increase over western Humboldt
County. This next system will bring more rain and snow to the
valleys of northern Nevada tonight and Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...Re-sent the morning forecast products to remove headline
for Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning. Both have
been allowed to expire. Showers are still diminishing yet are
concentrated around the center of the LKN CWFA just east of where
the proposed ridge axis will amplify rapidly over the next few
hours. Temperatures are still above freezing north of highway 50.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 204 AM /

SYNOPSIS...There will be a few lingering showers today as high
pressure begins to build over the Great Basin region. By day's
end, precipitation chances will increase over western Humboldt
County. This next system will bring more rain and snow to the
valleys of northern Nevada tonight and Saturday.

SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. There are a few light snow
showers around this morning. Temperatures are hovering around the
freezing mark across most of the LKN CWFA. As this storm tapers
off today, the next push of moisture will be entering western
Nevada. The main concern in the short term period will be the snow
level tonight through Saturday as another 6 to 10 inches of snow
is expected on the mountains. The models are in good agreement for
the short term period.

Today. There will be some lingering showers however high pressure
will spread over the state fairly rapidly to bring a very short
period of generally drier conditions this afternoon. By late
today, though, some moisture will get pulled up into the ridge
crest and begin to spread into western Humboldt County. High
temperatures will generally be in the 30s, however some 40s will
not be out of the realm of possibility considering the
amplification of the ridge.

Tonight through Saturday. The high pressure ridge axis will roll
through the state. Moisture riding across the ridge will bring 6
inches to a foot of snow to the mountains and mainly rain to the
valleys. As the moisture plume moves in, snow levels will rise to
around 6500 feet, alleviating concerns for travel impacts. High
temperatures will generally rise into the 40s. Low temperatures
will range from the 20s across eastern Nevada to the 30s across
western Nevada.

Saturday night. This looks to be a dry period as high pressure
undergoes pulse amplification in response to the next low pressure
trough moving into coastal California. Low temperatures
will range from the 20s across eastern Nevada to the 30s across
western Nevada.

Sunday. The next trough of low pressure will move through
California. Precipitation, possibly heavy at times, will spread
through Humboldt County. This system is expected to be a little
colder and presently snow levels are modeled around 6000 feet.
High temperatures will generally be in the 40s.

LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Thursday.

The long term period begins with a broad trof continuing to move
through Nevada. Precipitation type will change from a rain/snow
mix to all snow overnight and by Monday morning valleys look to
get a couple of inches of snow and mountains 3 to 6 inches. The
cold front looks fairly strong and some stronger winds can be
expected Sunday night through Monday, which would cause blowing
and drifting of snow. Despite the fact that schools will not be in
session for Monday morning due to the holiday, other commuters
may have to deal with some impacts. Any leftover showers should
diminish on Monday afternoon.

As the system exits it will be replaced with a cool northerly
flow through midweek as ridging builds into the eastern Pacific.

A little shortwave could clip northeastern Nevada on Wednesday or
Wednesday night bringing a few rain and snow showers, but it does
not look like it will have any impacts associated with it.

After the system moves through, near normal temperatures can be
expected with highs in the 30's and 40's and lows in the teens and
20's.

AVIATION...A departing storm system will continue to bring -SHSN
to northern and central Nevada through the early morning with MVFR
conditions possible. However, skies are expected to scatter out
during mid-morning with VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Another
storm system will bring deteriorating conditions to the northern
TAF sites by the end of the forecast period and beyond.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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