FXUS65 KLKN 170838
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
138 AM PDT Tue Jul 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS...Hot. Mostly dry with a few thunderstorms in central
Nevada mid week and beyond. Some of the storms will produce some
rain, briefly heavy in spots. Northern Nevada is going to stay hot
and dry. Expect highs around or just over 100 in many valleys
around the Great Basin.
.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.
Flat Four Corners ridge keeping deeper moisture out of the bulk of
the state, allowing only our extreme southern sections, that is,
parts of central and far eastern Nevada to participate in a
limitedmonsoonal flow. Storms will generally be dry lightning
producers. Biggest two issues will be smoky skies and the heat.
Many higher valleys will approach 100, with lower valleys hitting
it, or topping it.
.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Tuesday
Main Concern or Impact: Thunderstorms..mainly central NV
Brief synoptic overview:
Four Corners High which was parked overhead in central Nevada
begins to rotate back to east and southeast, allowing
southeasterlyflow to pull monsoonal moisture into central Nevada
on Thursday. This trend continues on Fridays as the central of the
500mb high is now over the four corners region. Also on Friday, a
wave off the CA southern CA pulls northward, which drags a weak
sub- tropical jet over western and eventually northern areas,
aiding to destabilize the atmosphere for most of the area. By the
weekend, the four corners position allows any waves to rotate
around and impact the area from the south until it shifts
southward into southern AZ by late Sunday.
Changes to Previous Forecast: Adjustment on POPs to highlight
some possible waves rotating around the four corners high into
the area from the south, in particular Friday and Sunday.
Forecast Confidence: Above average for the overall synoptic
pattern...no doubt we'll deal with day after day of wet and dry
t-storms for mainly central and eastern Nevada as all models are
pushing PW values near or above .75 inches. Low confidence on
forcing each day as there is no strong trof impacting the area.
Thunderstorms...mainly in central Nevada and occasionally pulling
northward into northeastern Nevada. As always gusty outflow winds
and possible flash flooding with these. Also, can't rule hazy or
smoky skies due to weak flow aloft.
Other than winds from thunderstorms, no concerns given the synoptic
Above average high temps before falling to near average Friday and
beyond, in particular central and eastern Nevada. Overnight lows
will stay above average, especially towards the weekend due to
increase moisture and cloud cover.
.AVIATION...Hot. Dry. Only KELY will have visible TS in the
distance. However, KELY...KTPH...and KEKO could have towering
cumulus with virga, creating localized dry downbursts. Smoky skies
over most areas at TAF sites and en-route could hinder slant
visibility but not surface visibility at actual airfields.
Please note: extreme heat with highs reaching upper 90s into the
low 100s will drive density altitudes way high.
.FIRE WEATHER...Strong upper ridge of high pressure will make most
zones hot and dry. Early this week a few dry storms will form over
central and eastern Nevada mostly south of US Highway 50. Min Rh's
in the singles and teens most areas. Recoveries will be in the 50s
and 60s in central Nevada with only 20s and 30s north.
Outlook for remainder of week: increasing thunderstorm coverage
toward the north, with storms transitioning to more wet. Some
storms in central and eastern Nevada will become wet enough to
cause local flooding, but storms over northern Nevada, although
"wet" by definition, will only be barely so.
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