FXUS65 KLKN 060902
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
202 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE AREA WILL BRINGING WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH
THE PAC NW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING SOME
COOLING...MAINLY TO THE NORTH...BUT NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE THIS FAR SOUTH SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NV. MCGEE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIOD WILL START OUT
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HANDLING OF ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. BRINGING THIS COLD AIR DOWN THOUGH. GFS
AND CANADIAN HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT BRINGING ENERGY EAST OF
AREA...BUT THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER KICKING SYSTEM ONTO THE
PLAINS WHILE CANADIAN IS SLOWER WHICH IS TYPICALLY WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THESE DIGGING SYSTEMS. ECMWF CUTS OFF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
NV WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS AREA. THIS UPPER LOW...PER HPC DISCUSSION
IS 4 TO 6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND ALSO KEEPS
SYSTEM OVER AREA LONGEST. FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE
CANADIAN. SINCE ALL MODELS AGREE ON COLD AIR COMING DOWN...DROPPED
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES AND WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. DEFINITELY NOT HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST AND THINK IF ANYTHING TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE. KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW...ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FRI/SAT IN A FEW LOCATIONS UNTIL THERE IS SOME MODEL
CONVERGENCE ON ONE SIMILAR SOLUTION. JMG
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. THERE WILL BE A FEW-SCT LAYER OF CU AT KEKO
AND KWMC...BUT THAT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. JMG
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$

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