FXUS65 KLKN 112352
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
352 PM PST THU MAR 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT 500MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS A TROF APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. FRIDAY
WILL SEE A SW FLOW WITH MILD TEMPS AND A CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD. A
STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING...MOVING THRU ELKO AROUND 06Z...AND
EXITING TO THE EAST JUST AFTER 12Z...AS 700MB TEMPS FALL TO -14C.
GOOD UPPER SUPPORT FROM A 110KT JET WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG
FRONT TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW
INCHES IN VALLEYS...WITH THE EMPHASIS BEING NORTH VERSUS CENTRAL.
THE HEAVIES SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 09Z AND 21Z...MAINLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY.
REA

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DGEX...GEM...UKMET
..ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WEST AND THE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA. WITH THIS STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...EXPECT PLEASANT SPRINGTIME WEATHER CONDITIONS. POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES FOR THE SILVER STATE ARE PROJECTED FROM SUNDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THAT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA HAS SEEN IN MONTHS...WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...A SLUG A SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS MORE THAN
140 HOURS OUT...NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM DIFFERENTLY...WITH THE EC IMPLYING A
NON-EVENT FOR THE LKN CWA AND THE GFS BRINGING SNOW TO BOTH ELKO AND
WHITE PINE COUNTIES.


.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE ENSUING 24 HR PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS PUSHING INTO
CALIFORNIA AND IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INLAND....BRINGING HIGH AND MID
DECK CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA...TAFS CONTINUE TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

90/97/97


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