FXUS65 KLKN 042220
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 PM PST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE THE
SILVER STATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A REX BLOCK IS IN PLACE WITH A
H5 HIGH OF 571 DAM OVER ALBERTA AND A H5 LOW OF 558 DAM OVER THE BEE
HIVE STATE. AT 500 MB THE GFS PROJECTS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. PWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN .07 TO .20 OF AN
INCH...EXPECTING MORE BONE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS DOES HAVE A SHORTWAVE
OFF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST THAT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL NOT IMPACT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE LKN
CWA.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW THE WESTERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE EUROPEAN BEING
MUCH MORE SOUTH AND WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. EITHER
WAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE FOR THE PEAKS IN
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. RIDGING WILL TRY TO REFORM OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW TAKING SHAPE. THE EARLIER RUN OF THE
EUROPEAN HAD A WEAK IMPULSE CLIP THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE NEWER RUN
HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS FEATURE. HAVE LOWERED POPS AS A RESULT.
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
START OUT COOL AND NEAR NORMAL...SLOWLY RUNNING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH THE NEXT 24-HOURS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/86/86


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