FXUS65 KLKN 242126
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
226 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS...Gusty afternoon winds and low relative humidity are
expected through the weekend with critical fire weather
conditions Sunday across parts of northeast Nevada. Otherwise, dry
conditions will continue into Tuesday of next week before
moisture tries to return to the state perhaps bringing some
isolated thunderstorms, with maybe some rain, to the region
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through next Monday. Skies mainly consist
of high clouds this afternoon with some flat cumulus in the
central part of the forecast area. Winds have developed as
expected and are not getting out of hand. The winds are expected
to diminish later this evening with overnight lows in the 50s.
By tomorrow, conditions will continue to remain dry over the
region. Winds will develop during the afternoon hours with breezy
to windy conditions expected. Some locations will see critical
winds/RH values and will be handled in the fire discussion below.
Otherwise, there will be a dry cold front moving southward through
the later afternoon into Monday morning across northern and
central Nevada. Highs will be a few degrees cooler with many areas
seeing the upper 80s to low 90s. It will continue to be dry Sunday
night into Monday with lighter winds. Some of the cooler locales
in northern Elko county could see temperatures dipping into the
upper 30s to low 40s.
On Monday, the center of circulation for the upper ridge will
reconstitute itself over California and Nevada. What that means
for us is a little less wind, and afternoon highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s.
.LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday. Dry conditions will
prevail during the overnight into Tuesday, though some of the
morning low temperatures could get down into the upper 30s,
especially in some of the colder locales in northern Elko county.
On Tuesday, the upper ridge begins building across the Arizona/New
Mexico border. A return flow out of the south will help to draw
moisture northward but Tuesday should remain storm-free. Highs for
the afternoon will be in the low to mid 90s with light winds. Dry
weather is projected for the overnight with lows in the 50s.
By Wednesday, models are showing a weak 1.5PV anomaly moving
through the flow, with a trajectory through northwest and north-
central Nevada. Model soundings are showing some moisture at or
above 550 mb across central Nevada. At this time, storm motions
appear to be about 10-15 mph. Thinking right now is there's a
possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s and winds will be light.
Thursday and Friday. Residual moisture could hang around east-
central Nevada for isolated storms. Winds are anticipated to be
light with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the 40s and
.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours.
Winds will redevelop tomorrow afternoon with W-NW10-20G25-30KT.
Note: KBAM AMD NOT SKED due to missing clouds/cigs.
.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy to windy conditions will develop tomorrow,
and combined with low relative humidity, will create critical fire
weather conditions in fire zones 469 and 470. Did look at fire
zone 454 but believe conditions will not meet the time
Winds will diminish Sunday evening and dry and rather benign
conditions will remain for Monday and Tuesday. Highs will climb
back into the 90s for many of the valley locations in northern and
central Nevada, while strong winds are not expected to develop.
Upper level high pressure will move to around the four corners
area Wednesday, helping to bring a slow moisture tap from south to
north. Right now, conditions are looking favorable for the
development of isolated thunderstorms in central Nevada. Storm
speeds are about 10-15 mph as of the latest model runs, so storms
are anticipated to be more on the dry side. Will need to keep
monitoring this pattern as it evolves.
Thursday/Friday - Some residual moisture stays in central Nevada
for this day, with another round of isolated storms.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Eastern Elko
County-Southwestern and Central Elko County.
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