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FXUS65 KLKN 152058
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
158 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will develop each day across
parts of northern and central Nevada each afternoon through
Monday. Expect dry and seasonable conditions Tuesday and beyond
with a potential cool down by the end of the work week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday. A generally trough pattern
will remain over the desert southwest for the next couple of days.
This will help to promote and unstable environment conducive for
convective activity. There is currently some moisture still
present in the trough which coupled with heating will lead to
isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon times each
day til Monday. Today the convection will be fairly limited as a
cap remains over the region with the storms confined mainly to far
southern portions of central NV. This cap will erode for Sunday
and Monday leading to a larger are of convection impacting central
and eastern NV. The storms will be high based and dry in nature
as there is not a large amount of moisture. This will make strong
gusty winds the biggest threat from the thunderstorms. High
temperatures range from the upper 70s to the upper 80s. Low
temperatures range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.


LONG TERM...Monday night through next Saturday. The upper level
low that is forecast to bring the showers during the Monday
overnight period will slide off to the southwest. In its place,
upper level ridging will build into northern and central Nevada.
Northwest flow will bring in some drier air for Tuesday afternoon.
At this time, any storm buildups are expected to be south of the
forecast area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Winds
will be light, though some afternoon breezes will kick in. The dry
weather will continue with overnight lows in the mid 40s to low
50s.

Wednesday and Thursday. Northwest flow will continue Wednesday as
the upper ridge is forecast to remain offshore. Winds could get a
bit windy in northeast Nevada but should remain below advisory
criteria. Highs will be in the low to upper 80s. By Thursday, an
upper level trough over southwest Canada will help to suppress the
ridge further west. This will help to increase winds a bit, but
still looking at speeds below advisory thresholds. Still looking
at a dry day, but it appears temperatures may cool a few degrees
in response to the upper level trough. Highs will still be in the
upper 70s and mid 80s with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Friday and Saturday. Model solutions are diverging on the
progression of the upper level system for the weekend. A shower
may be possible and cannot be ruled out, although confidence is
quite low at this time. Have kept ghost pops in the forecast as a
result. Afternoon highs will cool into the low 70s to around 80
on Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.
Winds could also be breezy on Friday and Saturday as well.

&&

AVIATION...Look for VFR conditions across all TAF sites through
the next 24 hours. For tomorrow, afternoon -TSRA will be possible
across the southern terminals at KELY and KTPH. The northern
sites of KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO will see some high scattered clouds.
Some afternoon breezes are possible but will remain below 25KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...For central Nevada...isolated dry thunderstorms
possible over central NV later this afternoon but unlikely to
see many cloud to ground strike with this activity. Convection
increases overnight but still remains mostly isolated. The storms
transition to more wet, with slow storm movement. This wetter
trend continues on Sunday over central NV with possible scattered
coverage. Convection continues on Monday as well before drier air
advects into the area. For northern Nevada...expect dry and warm
conditions today with lower RH values that previous days. Increase
in moisture Sunday leads to afternoon/evening virga along and
south of I-80. Moisture increases further on Monday, leading to
isolated storms in eastern Elko county.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...HYDROLOGY...Flooding continues on the Humboldt River
downstream of Elko and minor flooding is occurring each evening
along Lamoille Creek.

Once again expecting another peak on Lamoille Creek this evening
with a stage height somewhat close to the one observed Friday
evening between 5.25 and 5.3 feet. Lower relative humidity is
expected to increase the sublimation of the snowpack than on
previous days, hence the expected same rise.

On the Humboldt, expect Carlin to remain in minor flood stage as
the outflow from South Fork remains at the same level from 24
hours ago. Further downstream, the river has fallen back into
minor flood stage at Battle Mountain. The river stage remains
steady (maybe peaking today) in moderate flood stage at Comus. In
fact, the Comus gage (and corresponding high flows in Winnemucca) is
experiencing high flows that are approaching 2017 river levels.
Nevada Dept of Transportation closed Reinhart Lane (State Route
795) due to the sustained high water levels affecting the road's
foundation.

As for creeks and streams in central Nevada, they continue to
flow strong with some impacts noted yesterday with the closure of
a campground as well as a road (Lexington Canyon road washed out
at the first culvert) at the Great Basin National Park. Many of
the creeks and streams are closing in on flows of this magnitude
last observed in 2005.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/86/86/99
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