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FXUS65 KLKN 052219
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
319 PM PDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A strong cold front punches across northern and
central Nevada and Saturday, bringing numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms. The unsettled weather continues into Sunday with a
little snow possible for the mountains and far northern valleys.
Unseasonably cool weather Sunday and Monday with subfreezing
temperatures Monday morning in many valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday.
Complex scenario in the short term as closed low circulation
approaches the SoCal coast, lifting northeast and gets entrained
into the westerlies. Deep mixed layer and downwards transport
momentum yields strong gusty winds across eastern Nevada today.
Gradient flow does not relax until late tonight. Local wind gusts
may reach 50 mph over White Pine County and a wind advisory covers
this area until 11 PM this evening. A region of convergence
exists from the Jarbidge Wilderness area that trails back to west
central Nevada. Boundary layer lacks moisture but steep lapse
rates and surface heating initiates a few thunderstorms within the
convergence area.

Frontal band ahead of the strong Pacific trough reaches northwest
NV corner Saturday morning and moves across northern half of the
state during the day. Dynamical lift and moisture associated with
the front brings widespread showers, possibly as far south as
Tonopah. Embedded thunderstorms are expected but mostly over the
eastern half. Daytime temperatures will be cooler with highs in
the 70s, except 60s closer to the northern border.

Colder air filters into the region Sunday as the robust trough
punches inland with a strong jet rounding the base of the trough
across Nevada. Numerous showers with isolated storms are expected
north of I80. Snow levels will be lower and the far northern
valleys could see light snow with some accumulations in the
mountains (2-4 inches?). Strong jet splits the moist and dry air
masses with drier weather south of US50 on Sunday. The cold air
mass brings sub freezing temperatures to many valleys Monday
morning.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Friday

Weather remains active at start of the work week as a low pressure
system just north of us starts to leave the region. Showers may remain
in northern and eastern parts of Nevada. Colder air with this system helps
to bring down snow levels from the higher elevations in the mountains.
Due to the warm temperatures lately, if snow levels make it to the valley
floors then it would be difficult to get any accumulation on the ground.
QPF totals currently look to be less than a quarter of an inch.

Once the trough moves out of the region early morning Tuesday, a weak
ridge builds in and helps to give us some short-lived quiet weather.
Temperatures get the opportunity to warm up into the 80s and 90s as the
week goes on. When Friday morning rolls around, the next disturbance
looks to be just offshore. There is a fair amount of inconsistency between
deterministic and ensemble guidance as to what the setup will look like, and
what the resulting weather in our area will be.

Sensible Weather

Precip:

Precipitation should wrap up overnight Monday into Tuesday morning
with the last few showers bringing less than a quarter of an inch of QPF.
Cold air should lower snow in the middle of the night, potentially bringing
snow to valley floors. The rest of the week may remain dry, but there is
some indication that the following weekend could be a different story.

Winds:

Expect breezy conditions Monday, but calm after that. Winds start to
pick up again Thursday evening into Friday morning with the approach of
the next system.

Temperatures:

Anomalously cold air pools down into our region. Overnight lows during
the very early morning hours on Monday are expected to dip below freezing,
with afternoon highs that day only reaching into the 50s. To put it into
perspective, average max temperatures for June are mostly in the 80s.
Monday night into Tuesday morning sees lows at , or just above, freezing
but this is the turning point. Tuesday, temperatures get an opportunity to
rebound, and by the end of the week should climb back into the 80s and 90s.

&&

AVIATION...VFR through at least 06Z Saturday. Approaching
disturbance will increase afternoon surface winds to southwest
between 10 and 20 knots all sites and en route. Gusts to 25 are
likely at KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO; over 30 knots at KTPH; and over
35 knots at KELY. There is a risk for thunderstorms near all TAF
sites this afternoon into the early evening. Virga buildups
likely near or at all sites. High density altitudes are to be
expected today with daytime temps rising into the mid 90s.
Saturday should be cooler as an expected pattern change this
weekend will require daily forecast adjustments so please stay
tuned.


&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty winds are expected across the entire region with the highest
winds over eastern Nevada with local gusts as high as 40-45 kts.
Isolated thunderstorms will occur later this afternoon, but low
probability that will impact any TAF sites. Chance of showers
increase after 12Z at KWMC, KBAM, KEKO, and KTPH, and becomes
widespread between 18Z-24Z with areas of MVFR cigs and obscured
mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Deep mixed layer and downwards momentum leads to critical fire
weather conditions across eastern Nevada, fire zones 425 and 470.
Fuels are curing across zone 425 and wind gusts approaching 50 mph
will increase evapotranspiration rates. Farther west, isolated
high based dry thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon. On
Saturday, gusty winds occur ahead of a surface front but higher
humidity values and lower daytime temperatures reduce fire
hazards.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Eastern Elko
County-White Pine and Northeast Nye Counties.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for White Pine County.

&&

$$

88/84/88/88
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