FXUS63 KLMK 191046

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
646 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

... Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Updated at 315 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Upper ridge looks to remain firmly in place through the short term,
leading to a continuation of warm temps and dry weather. Models
continue to suggest that a SCT-BKN stratus deck will develop shortly
after sunrise, especially east of the I-65 corridor. As the day
progresses, cloud cover will gradually scatter westward. Still
thinking temps will easily surpass guidance even with the stratus
deck, especially given the dry soil conditions and aid of southerly
flow tomorrow. Currently have afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s
east of I-65 and lower 90s near and west of I-65.

As we head into the early morning hours of Friday, a few CAMs
suggest that brief isolated showers may be possible west of I-65.
While there is a slight moisture surge on the periphery of the
surface ridge, still believe our region will remain dry given the
drought conditions we have been experiencing lately, so will
continue to carry dry PoPs at this time.

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Updated at 315 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Strong upper ridging over the eastern CONUS will maintain August
heat through the weekend, and consequently the Equinox. ECMWF
remains the warmest guidance, and we will continue to bump max temp
forecast a degree or two above that. Dewpoints just touching 60 will
allow mins to cool off decently, but remain above climo.

Rain-free streak for much of the region will reach 25 or 26 days
before a progressive upper trof pushes a cold front into the Ohio
Valley Sunday night and Monday. This will be the best rain chance in
weeks, but will still limit POPs to 50 percent over southern
Indiana, and more like 30-40% in Kentucky as the front is left
behind by the upper wave.

Pattern flattens out from there with a closed low digging into the
Desert Southwest. Expect mainly dry weather across the Ohio Valley
through the middle of next week. Temps will remain solidly above
normal especially for highs, but will be cooler than this week.


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 645 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

VFR conditions are expected during this TAF period. Mid level
ceilings have already begun affecting LEX, and will gradually affect
all other TAF sites throughout the day, as cloud cover builds from
east to west. Otherwise, expecting winds to be southerly for most of
the day before backing southeasterly shortly after sunset.




Short Term...SSC
Long Term...RAS
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