FXUS63 KLMK 061704
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.MORNING UPDATE...

MORNING UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE FOG WORDING FROM ZONES AND ADJUST
SKY COVER. 1345Z SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE STRATUS LAYER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ERODING FROM THE N THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MOST LOCATIONS BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FADE AWAY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL ALSO KEEP ANY MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM
HANNAH WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND A MOIST GROUND FROM RECENT
RAINFALL...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. OUR REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS LARGE TROUGH WILL DIVE SEWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY AND WE WILL WARM BACK UP TO
ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGHS (UPPER 80S MOST PLACES). THE SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING A FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA AS WELL. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AS MOISTURE IS
LACKING. THUS SEE NO REASON TO ADJUST SLT CHC/LOW CHC POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
GREAT SHOT AT RAIN AT THIS POINT.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH ALL PRECIP ENDING OVER OUR ERN CWA BY 00Z WED. THINK WE
MAY HAVE STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS ON TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FROPA. UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
OHIO...VEERING OUR WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND WARMING UP OUR WRN CWA A
TAD. WITH DRY CONDITIONS...HIGHS ON WED SHOULD RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 80
OVER THE NRN BLUEGRASS TO NEAR 85 OVER OUR SWRN CWA.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...

NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST...THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL BE VERY AUTUMN LIKE WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS THROUGH
THURS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP
ATTM. HURRICANE IKE WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DEPENDING ON IKE/S POSITION AND IF IT GETS PICKED
UP INTO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE MIDWEST FRI WILL
DETERMINE FORECAST DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

STRATUS DECK FROM THIS MORNING IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DECAY
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. LEX HAS GONE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
FEW LEFT OVER STRATUS AROUND WITH A SCT-BKN VFR CU DECK. SDF AND
BWG SHOULD GO VFR AROUND 18Z TO 19Z AS VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THINNING OF THE STRATUS. TAF SITES SHOULD
STAY VFR WITH NNW WINDS FROM MID AFTERNOON TILL LATER TONIGHT.

THEN NEXT AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE FOG TOMORROW MORNING. WITH CALM
WINDS...FEW-SCT CLOUD COVER...AND LOW DEWPT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...MVFR-IFR BR WILL BE
ANTICIPATED. WILL KEEP SDF AND LEX IN THE MVFR CAT FOR NOW DUE TO
POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER THAN BWG. WILL GO WITH IFR AT
BWG AS MODELS SIGNALING AT A VERY MOIST STABLE ATMOS THAT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR IFR POSSIBLY LOWER VSBYS. WILL LET LATER TAF
ISSUANCES TREND VSBYS DOWN AS NEEDED.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......AML
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....AL
AVIATION.....AML









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