FXUS63 KLMK 111109
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
609 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

THIS MORNING WE FIND A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NORTHWEST
MISSOURI WITH A COOL FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS AND
MISSISSIPPI. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS JUST WEST OF KENTUCKY AT 07Z. AS
THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH TODAY, THE FRONT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
OCCLUDED AND WEAKEN. STILL WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING REACHING THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RIGHT ALONG THE COOL
FRONT. HOWEVER THESE STORMS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THE ISSUE WILL BE STABILITY AS WE LOOSE THE
AFTERNOON HEATING. FOR TONIGHT WE EXPECT ANY LINGERING STORMS TO
DIMINISH SHORTY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL HOLD ONTO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED WE EXPECT READINGS TO WARM INTO
THE 60S TODAY EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY - WEDNESDAY)...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FCST PD. VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS FCST TO BE OVER WESTERN MISSOURI FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER VORT
LOBE IS FCST TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
DECENT LOOKING FORT LOBE MOVES FROM THE SW TO NE AROUND THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED CYCLONE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO THE REGION. SOUNDING PROFILES
ARE MARGINAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION. MAIN CONCERN HERE IS THE
RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE TOP OF A WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
TO THE REGION. FORCING DUE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS WAVE.
HOWEVER...DYNAMICALLY SPEAKING...ENOUGH FORCING IS AVAILABLE FOR
SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. GIVEN THE RATHER
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH ANY STORM. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS VORT MAX TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DOT THE LANDSCAPE AT THIS TIME. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO LOWER-MID 40S IN THE WEST WITH MID-UPPER 40S
IN THE EAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE VERTICALLY STACKED CORE OVER KY DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY WAINING IN THE EVENING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND WITH READING IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE
50S. LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S.

STACKED CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...UPPER TROF ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL DROP IN
FROM THE NORTH AND BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES SEEM TO BE IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME
WITH A DIMINISHING TREND AGAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER COOL
DAY SEEMS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLING
OFF TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST-WEST
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS LOOKS TO HANG ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SINKS
SOUTHWARD...DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH A MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPS EXPECTED. DID NOT MAKE MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES THROUGH THIS
PORTION OF THE FCST PD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 05Z.
BASED ON THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT THE LINE WILL REACH BWG BEFORE TAF
ISSUANCE.. SDF BY 13Z AND LEX BY 16Z. WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION LASTING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WE EXPECT
TO SEE SOME IFR CIGS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS
WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JA
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........JA


Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page