FXUS63 KLMK 090114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
914 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Showers and storms have decreased in coverage this evening, and
after reviewing some of the latest guidance and trends, it appears
that we should remain dry through the overnight hours with loss of
surface heating. Forecast grids have been updated to account for
these changes.


.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

With no real change in the stagnant air mass sitting over our
region, we can expect another warm and muggy night tonight. While
the majority of the afternoon convection will dwindle with the
setting of the sun, remaining instability, numerous left-over
boundaries, plenty of moisture, and a possible slight uptick in
850mb winds suggest holding on to a small chance of storms through
the night. This is supported by RAP and NAM guidance.

Tomorrow we'll once again see scattered afternoon storms in the
humid, unstable atmosphere. The strongest instability should be west
of I-65, but all areas are fair game for convection. There will be
very little shear once again. A cold front will approach from the
west late in the day, but its influence should hold off until after
the short term.

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

The long term is going to see some change in overall flow as an
upper trough begins stretching from Iowa southeast towards North
Carolina. This will cover the Ohio Valley, but major changes won't
be felt at the ground. Highs in the 90s with chances for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms remain.

On Friday, a quick moving cold front will move through central
Kentucky. This feature is extending from a low pressure system over
the Great Lakes, but due to the timing of the front, believe chances
of thunderstorms will increase from western Kentucky earlier in the
day to eastern Kentucky later in the day. Following the front, high
pressure will fill in over the area. Believe this will keep things
mostly dry on Saturday.

Saturday night into Sunday, a shortwave embedded in the northwest
flow will strengthen a surface low over northern Indiana and drag a
cold front through the Lower Ohio Valley. Expect this to elevate
chances for thunderstorms to move across region during the day.

Monday, surface high pressure behind the front will help to lower
rain chances and precede a surging upper ridge that continues moving
eastward for the next couple of days. Currently, it looks like this
ridge and high pressure at the surface could hold on through at
least the end of next week. This would drive conditions drier and


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Radar is currently showing a few lingering showers and storms
over central KY, but these are not impacting any TAF sites.
Showers and isolated storms should diminish later on this evening
and tonight, but muggy conditions will continue. There is
potential for patchy fog to develop during the pre-dawn hours at
HNB and BWG, so decided to drop them to MVFR for a few hours in
this TAF package. HNB has been consistent at reporting AM fog, so
confidence is higher for HNB than BWG.

Otherwise, same story different day for the Ohio Valley. Expect
scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon as daytime heating
ramps up again.




Short Term...13
Long Term...KDW
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