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FXUS63 KLMK 231116
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
616 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

A chilly but partly sunny Thanksgiving Day is expected across the
Ohio Valley. Expect high temps to range from the mid 40s to lower
50s across the area.

Tonight expect continued dry weather with warm air advection
increasing ahead of the next cold front. Lows tonight should range
from the upper 20w to lower 30s.

Friday will feature mostly sunny skies and a continued warming
trend. Highs Fri afternoon will reach the mid to upper 50s.

.Long Term...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Friday Night - Monday...

Friday night a dry cold front looks to push through the Ohio Valley
bringing mainly mostly cloudy skies Fri night into the first part of
Sat. Sat highs look to range through the 50s. The colder air won't
arrive until Sat night with lows dropping off into the lower 30s and
highs on Sunday falling back into the mid 40s to lower 50s. The
cold surge won't last long though with return flow expected by
Monday. Highs on Mon will rebound back into the 50s area wide.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Forecast confidence from Tues onward falls to low as models have
diverged in recent runs with the upper pattern and how to handle an
energetic trough of Pacific origin moving into the western U.S. by
early next week. Long range models are having difficulty with this
feature and subsequent sfc cyclogenesis and precipitation fields.
For now will hold onto POPs in the late Tue/Wed time frame but this
may need adjusted to later in the week if the slower more amplified
model solutions pan out. As of now temps look to remain around
normal for this time of year mid week next week.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds will
remain light and variable through the morning before starting to
take on a southerly/southwesterly direction by late afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...AMS
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