FXUS63 KLMK 050800
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 AM EST SUN FEB 05 2012

.Short Term (Today and Tonight)...

Surface low has moved east of the Appalachian spine to the North
Carolina/Virginia border. Meanwhile, upper low continues to spin
over the Kansas City region. Low clouds and patches of drizzle
remain over the area, along with patches of fog. Have left mention
of a slight chance of a measurable rain shower in the grids early
this morning, however think most locations will only see drizzle.
Temperatures will continue to drop into the upper 30s and low 40s
north of the parkways. Mid and upper 40s are expected across south
central Kentucky as winds have not shifted to northeasterly on the
warm side of a surface trough.

As we move through the daylight hours, surface low will move off the
Carolina Coast with upper low transitioning to an open wave. Expect
low clouds and slight chances of a measurable rain shower or drizzle
ahead of the nearly East/West oriented upper trough axis that
develops along the Ohio River to the eastern Plains. This axis will
gradually sink south along with deepest low level moisture, ending
chances of precipitation from north to south through the day. Skies
will also begin to clear out in the afternoon along and north of the
I 64 corridor. High temperatures are expected to struggle with cloud
cover for a good portion of the day along with northeasterly surface
flow. Look for highs mainly in the middle to upper 40s.

As we move into tonight, skies should be mostly clear as drier air
works into the region on continued northerly flow. Surface high will
be in control along with upper level ridging over the northern CWA.
Have patchy fog developing mostly in the sheltered valleys and in
southwestern Indiana under the upper level ridge. Think drier
airmass will keep fog from becoming more widespread, however will
have to monitor. Lows should dip into the lower 30s in most spots
with a few of the cool spots into the upper 20s.

.Long Term (Monday - Saturday)...

Slow-moving upper low in the short term will pick up steam toward
the east and clear the region during the day Monday. High pressure
building into the area will mean dry conditions at least through
Tuesday. Then from midweek on a series of upper level disturbances
will set up a large-scale trough over the Eastern U.S., bringing in
a more winter like cool down. None of the systems look overly wet
among the various long-term models. As the large-scale trough
becomes better established later in the day Friday, we may see a
band of precip come across, as per the latest GEM and GFS solutions.
GFS sounding indicates most of the layer will be below freezing,
except for a warmer surface. Previous forecast kept best chance,
only slight, in for Wednesday, then dry through the end of the
period. Will trim pops a little Wednesday and bump them up a little
Friday and Friday night, to slight chance over the east and
southeast, in line with the AllBlend. Both sets of periods will keep
as a rain/snow mix given forecast soundings and surface temperature
forecasts.

Speaking of temperatures, have readings starting off around 50 for
highs Monday, going up a few degrees over the south Tuesday, then
should be in the 40s all locations Wednesday and Thursday. The
cooler air will filter in Friday, with highs in the 30s over the
north. Then Saturday, all but south central Kentucky should remain
in the 30s for highs. Saturday morning should be the coolest all
locations, with lows in the 20s.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...

Weak low pressure is currently over the TAF sites and will drift
east through overnight. Ceilings are expected to stay in the IFR
range through at least dawn at all sites with patches of drizzle and
varying visibilities. Thereafter, gradual improvement to ceilings
and then clearing should begin from north to south. SDF/LEX should
be the first to break low MVFR/IFR ceilings around Noon, with BWG
not breaking out of low MVFR until early evening.

Confidence is lower in what visibilities will do as obs around the
region are ranging from a half mile to 10 miles right now. Expect
Vis to generally stay in the MVFR range, lower in patches of
drizzle. Have depicted potential for VIS to crash around dawn.

Surface winds should generally stay out of the NNE around 5mph
through the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........BJS


Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page