FXUS66 KLOX 061656
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2008

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

...SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-WEDNESDAY)
FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. GRADS HAVE TURNED OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING...WITH LAX-DAG NEAR -2 MB AND SMX-BFL DOWN TO NEAR -3. THIS
HAS ALLOWED SOME NORTHEAST FLOW TO FORM IN THE MTNS AND FAVORED
VALLEYS...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. THIS
OFFSHORE...COUPLED WITH A BUILDING 592 DM RIDGE TO OUR OUR
SOUTHWEST...AND TEMPS ARE ON THE RISE. MORNING SOUNDINGS CONFIRM
THIS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 5C WARMING TREND UP THROUGH 700MB. THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL BE THE TRICKIEST AS SOME EAST WIND HAS
SURFACED...BUT WARMING IN STORE NONETHELESS. STRATUS LOOKS TO REMAIN
AT BAY ONCE AGAIN TODAY.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA AS WELL. EXPECT EVEN
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BOTH TUE AND WED AS INLAND TEMPS WILL
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES BOTH DAYS...WHILE THE COASTAL AREAS WILL
VARY BETWEEN THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 90S BOTH TUE AND WED. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS OFFSHORE TRENDS SHOULD KEEP
FORECAST AREA CLEAR.

AS FAR AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS...ONLY EXPECTING GENERALLY LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE FAVORED NE-SW PASSES
AND CANYONS OF THE LA/VTU COUNTY MTNS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS UPPER LVL SUPPORT IS WEAK AND VIRTUALLY NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO FUNNEL INTO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS A 1025 MB SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN THU AND FRI AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO
THE PAC NW HELPING TO LOWER H5 AND THICKNESS LVLS A BIT. BY
FRI...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES. THE EC
ADVERTISES A COLD UPPER LVL CUT-OFF LOW (541 MB) DROPPING INTO SRN
NEVADA BY FRI NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS AN OPEN TROF OVER ERN UTAH
AT THE SAME TIME. TOO EARLY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH WILL DO THE BETTER
JOB...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW A MUCH STRONGER SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SOME DECENT OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. IF
MODELS ARE ON TRACK WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...A DECENT SANTA ANA
EVENT COULD TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY COMPARED TO THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS
WHICH SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY THE 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS. MARINE LAYER SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD DUE TO OFFSHORE TRENDS.


&&

.AVIATION...06/1700Z.
THE MARINE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CHASED AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS MORNING
BY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. ALL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TUESDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/KAPLAN
AVIATION...SWEET

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