FXUS66 KLOX 161427
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
727 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2019
Today and into next week, clear skies are expected in interior
areas with breezy conditions over the deserts. Clouds will
increase at the coast and move farther inland overnight,
persisting into the following morning. Temperatures will be
seasonal, with cooler temperatures in cloudy regions.
.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...16/304 AM.
Yesterdays weak ridge has been replaced by a weak trof. The trof
will expand and push out of NV and over SoCal Mon and Tue. There
is not much if any cool air assoc with the trof and hgts only fall
to 581 DM.
The overriding weather factor is the onshore flow which will
change little through the period. Onshore flow to the east will
peak between 8 and 9 MB each afternoon while the push to the north
will be between 4 and 5 MB.
The next three days will be very similar to each other with night
through morning low clouds extending deep into the vlys. The low
clouds will slowly clear but with many beaches remaining cloudy
all day. Max temps will cool today from ydy (esp inland) due to
the ridge to trof transition. Temps will then change little on Mon
and Tue. Max temps will be 5 to 10 degrees blo normal for the
coasts and vlys but near normal across the inland areas.
The strong onshore grads will make for slightly breezier than
normal conditions in the afternoon. There will be gusty winds in
the Antelope Vly with Lake Palmdale experiencing local 45 mph
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...16/314 AM.
Both the EC and the GFS agree a little ridge will move into the
center of the state on Wednesday. There will not be much change
across the coasts and vlys but the interior will warm up a few
The high is pushed out to the west Thursday as broad trofing
pushes westward out of the Rocky Mtns. The GFS and EC do not agree
too well for the Friday and Saturday time frame but none are too
different to matter much in June. Both agree that the strong
onshore flow will persist. There will likely be little day to day
change as the night through morning low cloud pattern persists
Cst and vlys temps will exhibit little day to day change and will
remain 4 to 8 degrees blo normal. Inland temps will rise on
Wednesday which looks like it will be the warmest day for these
locations over the next 7. There will be slight cooling each day
through Saturday as the hgts fall with the trofing.
At 0800 at KLAX...The marine layer was 2500 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was around 4800 feet with a temperature of 21 C.
Good confidence in a persistence forecast for 12z TAFs. Forceast
transitions should occur within a hour of fcst. There is a 20
percent chc of IFR cigs thru 15Z at terminals with MVFR cigs
KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12z TAF. Forceast transitions
should occur within a hour of fcst. There is a 20 percent chc of
IFR cigs thru 15Z. High confidence in no east wind component
greater than 5 kt thru 12z Mon.
KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in 12z TAF. Forceast
transitions should occur within a hour of fcst. 30% chance for IFR
Cigs thru 14z.
For the Outer Waters... Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
conditions will continue across the central and southern outer
waters through this afternoon. There is a forty percent chance of
conditions continuing into the evening hours and a thirty percent
chance of it continuing into the overnight hours. Otherwise and
elsewhere conditions will remain below SCA levels through
For the Inner Waters... Conditions will remain below SCA levels
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (TUE-SAT).
No significant hazards expected.
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