FXUS64 KLUB 141123
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 AM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH
INCREASING VFR CLOUD DECKS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE UNDERWAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THUS...CHANCES FOR -SHRA WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE BEST PRECIP MAY STAY NEAR KLBB FOR THIS TAF
CYCLE. HOWEVER...HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH TAF SITES...INCLUDING THE MENTION OF MVFR CLOUD DECKS
AND FOGGY CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010/
SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN APPROACHING UA LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH/NORTHERN ARIZONA...PROPAGATING EAST SOUTHEAST. THE NAM
APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE CURRENT TEMPORAL LOCATION OF
THE SAID UA LOW...AS IT IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER...VERSUS THE GFS
SHOWING BETTER TEMPORAL APPROXIMATION. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS AGREE
THAT THE UA LOW WILL BE NEARING EL PASO BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS
STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS RELATIVELY SLOW TRACK...AS
IT COULD MOVE QUICKER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE REALIZE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DISPLAYED TOP-DOWN MOISTENING...PWAT VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 0.60 INCHES AND INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT BY
MONDAY 06Z. RAIN IS THE MORE LIKELY DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE DUE TO
RELATIVELY WARM 850 MB TEMPS AND LIQUID EXHIBITED MODEL SOUNDINGS.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...700 MB
LAPSE RATES WILL NEAR 10 C/KM ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...INDUCING A MENTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDER.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT
BECOMING SLIGHTLY BREEZY DUE TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY 850 MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35+ KTS. WILL THEREFORE LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TODAY/S HIGH...AS IT IS A BIT COOLER THAN THE NAM
MOS.
LONG TERM...
00Z MODEL RUNS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW THAN HAVE SEEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL NOT
INTRODUCE THE LATTER ATTM. MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE ERN
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP GIVEN THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM EL
PASO ACROSS THE BIG BEND INTO SE TEXAS. WEST OF I-27 SEEMS A GOOD
BET AND HAVE FURTHER INCREASED POPS THERE INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY. EAST OF THE INTERSTATE STILL QUESTIONABLE AND WILL KEEP
CHC THERE. GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR MONDAYS HIGHS CONVERGING ON TEMPS IN
THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER 50S
OFF THE CAP WHERE PRECIP PROBABLY MORE LIMITED AND CIGS HIGHER.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MID TO LATE WEEK TO RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SFC COLD FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT HAVING CONVERGED ON A
SOLUTION THAT KEEPS THE TROUGH OPEN AND DOES NOT HAVE ANY CUT OFF
ENERGY OVER NEW MEXICO. PRECIP CHANCES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FCST
AREA STILL LOOKING SLIM WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT THUNDER ALONG THE
FRONT IF MOISTURE RETURN IS MORE ROBUST THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO FCST POPS JUST UNDER
MENTIONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 36 46 31 63 / 10 50 50 10 0
TULIA 59 36 49 35 63 / 0 40 40 10 0
PLAINVIEW 62 38 49 35 63 / 0 40 40 10 0
LEVELLAND 65 40 51 35 63 / 10 40 60 20 0
LUBBOCK 65 40 50 36 64 / 0 30 40 20 0
DENVER CITY 73 40 46 38 62 / 10 30 70 30 0
BROWNFIELD 69 40 50 36 64 / 0 30 70 30 0
CHILDRESS 67 39 52 40 66 / 0 20 30 10 0
SPUR 67 41 51 37 67 / 0 30 30 20 0
ASPERMONT 72 42 53 41 66 / 0 20 30 20 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page |
