FXUS64 KLUB 230430

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1030 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

VFR next 24 hours.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019/

Cold front was well south of the forecast area this afternoon with
breezy conditions in place across the forecast area. Do expect
wind speeds to slowly decrease through the evening into the
overnight hours as the pressure gradient relaxes but still remain
around 10 mph which should limit radiational cooling overnight.
Otherwise, we will remain in a fairly quiet weather regime through
the forecast as ridging remains in place just off the West Coast
keeping dry northwesterly flow aloft in place. A series of
disturbances will move across the forecast area through the next 7
days with a cold front following closely behind. These will arrive
Thursday, Saturday, and Monday in the morning to early afternoon
and will mainly keep highs in the 50s.

A shortwave will dive west south across New Mexico on Saturday and
the models are developing some light precipitation across the
southern half of the forecast area. However, most of the moisture
available for precipitation will be in the mid-levels and the dry
near-surface layer should keep much, if not all, of the
precipitation from reaching the ground. Opted to remove PoPs from
the forecast and kept Saturday dry. Sunday looks to be the warmest
day as westerly flow develops at the surface in advance of a way
set to arrive on Monday. This front will be a bit stronger and
potentially windy if the 12Z models are right. Regardless, colder
temperatures will push in behind the front dropping us back into
the mid 40s for highs on Tuesday.





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