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FXUS64 KLUB 052323
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail through the TAF period with breezy southerly
winds Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020/

SHORT TERM...
Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows upper ridging in the
process of building over West Texas, downstream of a closed low
approaching southern California. The ridge will narrow tomorrow as
it becomes increasingly squeezed between the ejecting western
low/trough and Tropical Storm Cristobal, moving northward through
the central Gulf. However, although thinning, the upper ridge will
be more squarely centered over the South Plains, which will provide
hot and dry conditions. Any convection that does form on the higher
terrain of New Mexico will make very little eastward progress
Saturday afternoon/evening, meaning the South Plains will remain
dry. Before then, isolated high-based convection may develop near a
surface trough to our north this afternoon, with additional activity
stretching into the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico. Storms
that form later this afternoon will edge eastward/southeastward.
There is an outside chance a storm could flirt with our far
northwest corner late this afternoon/evening, but even there overall
thunder chances are low.

Temperatures will be mild again tonight, bottoming out in the 60s
and lower 70s. Another hot day will follow to start the weekend,
with highs mostly in the middle to upper 90s.

LONG TERM...
The upper ridge is not expected to budge much through the
weekend, with its axis remaining squarely over west and northwest
Texas while Cristobal comes onshore in the northern GOM and then
moves north along the Miss. Valley early next week. The srn Cali
upper low will weaken and move northeast across NM and CO Saturday
with tstm chances remaining west of the state line. The upper
ridge over us will be increasingly squeezed early next week by the
upper trough to the west of the Rockies and Cristobal to the
east. And will temporarily yield to the western trough emerging
over the high plains on Tuesday. Upshot to all this is that hot
and dry weather is expected for the whole forecast area through
Monday. High temps will be mainly in the middle 90s to near 100,
warming to 100s on Monday. We could see high temps approach 105
degrees Monday across the southern South Plains as hot and dry
southwest winds develop with a deepening surface trough across the
area, and we have gone above blended guidance for highs. A cold
front is expected to pass through the area Tuesday, taking
temperatures back down to near mid-June averages. Mid to late
week, the upper ridge will attempt to reassert itself across the
region, however, there is at least the possibility that the ridge
may be not be as strong as this weekend's ridge, and could allow
for some precip chances with some sub-tropical moisture trapped
within the anticyclonic flow.

FIRE WEATHER...
hot and dry conditions through the weekend may peak on Monday as
we get some strengthening of deep-layer southwesterly flow
resulting in higher temps, and slightly stronger wind speeds and a
sharper dryline. Fire Weather concerns will be possible across the
western South Plains.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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