FXUS64 KLUB 190756

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
256 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019


An upper level low over the Dakotas will move south today before
eventually moving southeast across the MIssissippi River Valley. A
surface low will also move east across Oklahoma today. Temperatures
will be seasonal today with highs in the mid 60s and southwest winds
10-15mph. A weak cold front is still expected to push through
overnight and will drop temperatures to the 50s for Wednesday. The
bulk of the moisture with this front will be in the northern Texas
Panhandle, but may extend into our northern counties so have included
a 20-40% chance of showers tonight. Surface temps in the mid 30s
should keep all precip liquid, but if temps trend cooler by a few
degrees flurries could be possible. Surface high pressure will build
in on Wednesday with upper level ridging on Thursday between the
trough over the Appalachians and the approach low over the western

A deep low over the California coast will split on Thursday with the
southern part of the energy crossing the Four Corners on Friday.
Solutions are now further south with this low, especially the ECMWF.
The timing has also slowed down now, and the majority of the CWA has
low PoPs on Thursday except along the New Mexico state line.
Southerly winds will bring moisture up from the Gulf starting
Thursday and by Friday PWATs are 0.75 to 1 inch. This moisture
combined with the lift of the approaching low, will lead to likely
PoPs Friday and Friday night. Higher lapse rates and CAPE values favor
the state line Friday evening then the Rolling Plains on Saturday
afternoon and a few strong storms with heavy rainfall will be
possible. As the system exits Saturday, rain chances will shift to
the Rolling Plains then clear out by Saturday night. Monday still
looks a little unsettled but surface high pressure and upper
level ridging will build in by mid week.




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