FXUS64 KLUB 151944
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
244 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
Heat and high based thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the
remainder of today and tonight as an upper level shortwave trough
moves across New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle by tonight and
begins to flatten. A strengthening dryline gradient will peak this
evening, extending roughly along the I27/87 corridor. Once the
trough opens into a wave tonight, we'll see the potential for
storms to become more organized over the Rolling Plains after
sunset. The overall conditional threat lessens confidence, but if
the storms are able to strengthen enough to overcome capping
issues, the primary threat will be golf ball size hail and wind
gusts up to 70 MPH.
Sunday will be cooler as upper level heights lower behind the exiting
trough and northwest flow aloft sets in over a weak cold front
that filters in behind tonights convection. Despite less
instability, the Rolling Plains will be in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms tomorrow. Higher surface instability off the
Caprock will be enhanced by higher dewpoints. Large hail and
strong winds gusts will once again be the primary threats.
Daily chances of thunderstorms will continue into the new work
week as weak forcing over dewpoints steadily in the 50s and 60s.
Models have been fairly consistent with a signal for an MCS
developing in northeast New Mexico on Monday night and pushing
through the Texas Panhandle with outflow possibly initiating
convection over the southern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains
into early Tuesday morning. A drier airmass begins to set in by
midweek and may lead to near triple digit heat for the second half
of the week into next weekend.
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