FXUS64 KLUB 190539
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1239 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018
Gusty westerly winds will shift to the NW and then N-NW as a
front moves through the area today. Wind speeds will finally
begin to diminish toward late afternoon and early evening. Light
N-NE winds are expected overnight and early Tuesday. There may be
some light visibility reductions due to BLDU through this morning,
otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018/
Rainfall that pushed through the region earlier this morning was
able to drop one hundredth to just over a tenth of an inch of rain.
While definitely welcoming site the rain will do little to help
mitigate fire weather danger. Dewpoints have already dropped into
the lower 20s to mid teens across eastern NM. These will push
eastward and continue to drop through the afternoon. Winds will
follow a similar path with wind speeds reaching advisory level by
mid afternoon across the TX/NM state line. We have decided to delay
the high wind warning across our western 2 columns of counties until
22z due to the delayed onset of windy conditions thanks to this
morning's rainfall. Currently the highest wind speeds are expected
to be across the western TX Panhandle in correlation with the
location of the H500 vort max. With windy conditions along with warm
and dry conditions fire weather danger will be in the extremely
critical category. Despite higher relative humidities later tonight
high fire weather danger will still be a concern as winds will
remain at least in the advisory criteria as the surface low
continues passing just to our northeast ahead of an approaching cold
Just when you thought the wind may be over it will continue behind
the cold front tomorrow. Minimum RH values will be higher than what
is expected today and will help keep fire weather danger relatively
lower, but winds are still expected to be greater than 20 mph into
the early afternoon. By the late afternoon and early evening wind
speeds should drop to the 15-20 mph range as the surface low pushes
eastward to the MS Valley and surface high pressure takes over
across the South Plains region.
The weather should remain relatively quiet into late week as
northwesterly flow aloft followed by upper ridging will bring mostly
a warming trend. Some breezy conditions will be possible late
Thursday into Friday afternoon depending on the track of a surface
low formed along the lee trough. Forecasted winds will be kept along
the middle of the road for the time being given differences in the
GFS and ECMWF.
Red Flag Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ021>044.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ021>044.
Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page