FXUS64 KLUB 192323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Early evening showers to the northwest of KPVW should remain
insignificant. TS across southern New Mexico may make a run toward
KPVW and KLBB late tonight, although chance remains low. MVFR
ceilings remain a possibility with good low level moisture
transport. Models are becoming a bit bearish with them though.
Will keep mention in the TAFs as pattern suggests they remain a
distinct possibility.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

Weak mid/upper level low apparent on satellite imagery, supported
by southern jet, is moving slowly NNE out of SE New Mexico into
the South Plains and will eventually weaken as it moves through
the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma over the next 24 hours. Whatever
energy remains from the low, will get absorbed into the more
potent Pacific trough that will shift off the Pacific Ocean later
tonight, with the base spreading across northern California.

The negatively tilted trough is struggling to produce much more
than thick mid/upper level cloud cover today across our CWA with
dewpoint depressions of 25 to 35 degrees holding steady at the
surface. Shortwave upper level ridging will continue meagher
forcing for potential precip across our area tomorrow afternoon
into the evening despite decent midlevel instability with CAPE
values around 1000 J/kg.

The base of the deepening Pacific trough, initially negatively
tilted as well, will position across eastern New Mexico by early
Saturday helping to mix drier air to the surface with elevated
westerly surface winds pushing precip chances farther east off the
Caprock during the day. The base of the trough then anchors and
pivots east over the I20 corridor into Central Texas becoming
positively tilted for a short time, pushing best chances for
showers and storms well to our east but the eastern Rolling Plains
could see some showers along the surface cold front Saturday
late afternoon or evening but otherwise the front will be mostly
dry for our CWA bringing gusty northerly winds late Saturday
afternoon and evening as it passes, that quickly ease and turn
back around from the south for Sunday. The progressive longwave
pattern will be conducive for rising heights to warm us up above
normal for Monday before another weak and dry cold front cools us
down on Tuesday with ridging pattern becoming more persistent for
Wednesday and warming us up yet again but temperatures will
moderate to more seasonable or slightly above for the remainder of
the week into the weekend.




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