FXUS64 KLUB 192033

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
333 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Very hot temperatures will be the main weather concern as they are
expected to persist through the weekend. Today, we've already
seen record warm low temperatures this morning, followed by mid-
afternoon readings ranging around 100 in the southwest South
Plains, to a blistering 112 at Estelline in eastern Hall County.

The upper-level ridge centered over central NM will not move a
whole lot through the weekend, drifting slightly northeast toward
the Panhandles. 700 mb temperatures are also progged to remain
fairly flat, so we do not expect to see much relief from the
heat. Guidance does suggest that temperatures will back off a few
degrees by Saturday, so for now we have extended the Heat Advisory
through Friday evening and we'll follow the temperature trends to
see if it will need to be extended any further.

Meanwhile, a deepening upper low over the Great Lakes will send a
cold front southward through the plains this weekend. This front
may be able to backdoor into our northeast counties late Saturday
and could provide some relief to that area on Sunday...if it
doesn't stall out to the north. By Monday, the upper ridge will
wobble back west into Colo and NM and this should allow the front
to make a stronger push southward, hopefully aided by convection.
The GFS and ECMWF are in general agreement showing the front
moving through our forecast area sometime Monday or Monday evening.
Monday's temperature forecast will of course depend a lot on the
timing of the front, but it should at least bring a significant
cool down on Tuesday. Precip chances are also likely to improve
behind the front as we get some higher moisture levels and cooler
temperatures aloft. However, at this time it is difficult to which
locations may be favored and how much convective coverage there
will be.


Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ021>044.



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