FXUS64 KLUB 061539
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1039 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE DUE TO THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA. LOW
CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO MIX OUT THUS KEEPING TEMPERATURES LOWER LATE
THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. JDV
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/
SHORT TERM...
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS AS OF 08Z SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG A LITTLEFIELD TO PLAINVIEW TO
CHILDRESS LINE. MILD TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES CAN BE FOUND SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DEPICTED WELL ON 11-3.9
MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ADVECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST CAMP...LAZBUDDIE
AND FARWELL WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS AND THEN SCOUR BY MID MORNING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH. BOTH THE NAM-WRF AND GFS PUSH THE FRONT
WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE. A FEW MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MET GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TODAY.
DRIER LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
HAVE COOLED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SLACKEN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COLD FRONT TO BEGIN A SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KW
LONG TERM...
OCCASIONAL FROPA/S AND RAIN CHANCES AT BOTH ENDS OF THE WORK WEEK
REMAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE REQUIRED FOR THIS UPDATE.
THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL GENERALLY
MEANDER OVER THE PANHANDLES AND IN PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE PERSISTENTLY DEPICTED A POCKET
OF RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
SUNDAY...WITH DEWPOINT MIXING WELL INTO THE LOWER 40S AND LIMITING
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS MAGNITUDE OF
DRYING ARE LOW...AND MODELS DO MANAGE TO SUGGEST CONVECTION NEAR A
FRONT/TROUGH INTERSECTION ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP
SUNDAY APPEARS LOW...A LOW ORDER MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS
WARRANTED.
SAID FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DURING THE MONDAY TIMEFRAME
IN THE WAKE OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS THE CURRENTLY GOING SLIGHT CHANCE/
CHANCE POPS REMAIN VALID LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE AT THEIR BEST TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND AS WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS BENEATH
MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL MODIFY WEDNESDAY AS SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY UA FLOW/LEE TROUGHING OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF A
MID/UPPER AIR TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NOW DEPICT A DEEPENING TREND AS THIS FEATURE
TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY...AND HINTS AT A RETURN
TO RAIN CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FROPA LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY. SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD DECREASE SAID RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 87 57 86 59 80 / 10 10 10 20 20
TULIA 91 60 85 59 82 / 10 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 91 60 86 60 83 / 10 10 10 20 20
LEVELLAND 91 60 88 62 83 / 10 10 10 20 20
LUBBOCK 92 63 88 63 84 / 10 10 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 90 62 88 62 83 / 10 10 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 91 63 88 64 84 / 10 10 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 91 65 90 64 85 / 10 10 10 10 20
SPUR 94 64 90 66 85 / 10 0 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 96 66 93 67 88 / 10 0 10 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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