FXUS64 KLUB 051016
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
416 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...
REX BLOCK STRUCTURE CURRENTLY SPANNING THE LENGTH OF THE ROCKIES
WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. MINOR RIDGING BETWEEN THIS
FEATURE AND A STACKED LOW NEAR KANSAS CITY IS KEEPING A COOL AXIS
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS NORTH TO
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. THIS HIGH CENTER SHOULD REDEVELOP
SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MORE CHILLY LOWS. DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING...AM STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY COURTESY OF A DIFFUSE TROUGH WEST OF EL PASO. THIS
COULD FURTHER INTERFERE WITH THE ALREADY COOL HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S AREA WIDE AND TEMPER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EVEN WITH SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER BEING PULLED AHEAD OF A
BROAD TROF WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN. AS THE BROAD TROF SWINGS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY KEEPING COOL AIR IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE DRY AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY EXIST ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A
BROAD TROF SLOWLY DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED
LOW THAT DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WEEK OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AS THE TROF SWINGS OUT
OF THE PLAINS...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE EXTRA MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN AS LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. THERE STILL IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT
AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. A STANDARD
DEVIATION OF 8-9 IN THE POP FIELDS DOES NOT BODE WELL...BUT THERE
HAS BEEN ENOUGH CONTINUITY AND A TREND WITH INCREASING POPS THE
LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS SO WENT AHEAD AND OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP
INTO SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK QUICKLY MIXES OUT AND ONCE AGAIN
WE GET RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE PATTERN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE FOR THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 43 19 50 24 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 44 20 52 29 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 44 20 52 29 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 44 21 52 27 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 46 21 53 29 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 44 25 52 27 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 44 25 52 30 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 48 22 55 31 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 47 23 54 31 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 48 26 55 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14


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