FXUS64 KLUB 170901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
301 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Overall forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made.
A cold front that will be moving through the South Plains later
this morning was currently exiting far southeast Colorado and
southwest Kansas at 08Z. At its pace it should enter the southwest
Texas Panhandle around daybreak, pass through Lubbock mid-morning
and exit the southern Rolling Plains early to mid-afternoon. This
will result in a decent gradient in high temperatures today,
varying from the lower to middle 40s across our northwest counties
to middle or even upper 60s over our southeast zones.
Temperatures will plateau behind the FROPA before dropping
efficiently this evening. Low clouds will fill in behind the
front, though they are currently trailing it by 150 miles. Most
NWP suggests the stratus could enter the far southwest Texas
Panhandle by mid-morning, but will then stall out most of the day
before building back southward this evening/night. Even with
filtered sunshine, gusty northerly winds sustained at 15 to 25 mph
will add to the chill behind the front.

The gusty winds will back off late tonight and especially on Sunday
as the surface ridge axis traverses northwest Texas. Any residual
stratus early Sunday should thin/break by afternoon, but it will
remain cool with highs only in the 40s.

More seasonable temperatures will follow next week as the surface
ridge shifts to the east and upper ridging approaches from the west.
One weakening disturbance is still progged to cut under the ridge
and pass over the South Plains region on Wednesday. The latest NWP
have trended back north (versus 24 hours ago), bringing this
disturbance more squarely overhead. Just enough forcing and top-
down moistening could secure a few light rain showers in the
region. Hence, we have expanded the minimal shower mention to
include much of the CWA on Wednesday. Dry weather will then
prevail Thursday and Friday as the upper ridge gives way to more
progressive flow as strong jet energy is directed into the western
CONUS. At this point it looks like Thanksgiving will be a nice
day with southerly breezes and highs at least in the 60s, and
perhaps even 70s if the GFS comes to fruition.




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