FXUS61 KLWX 140233
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
933 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. THE LOW CENTER WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOPRES DPNG BTWN RIC-CHO ATTM. TO THE E OF THIS NEW CIRCULATION
CENTER...A STRAY SHRA/TSRA HAS SNUCK NWD INTO THE TIP OF SRN
MD...AND AN AREA OF RAFL HAS DVLPD ACRS NRN SHEN VLY/ERN WV
PNHNDL. XPCT ONLY A SLOW WOBBLE IN THE PATH OF THE SFC LOW...AS
FEATURES ALOFT CATCH UP. LAST 2 RUNS OF WRF-ARW4 SUGGEST IT WL BE
NEAR DC BY DAWN.
SUCH A TRACK ADDS CREEDENCE TO PRVS ASSERTION...THAT MOIST LLVLS
WUD FVR RADZ /AND AREAS OF FOG DVLPG/ VS SHRA...AT LEAST ON NRN
AND WRN SIDE OF SFC LOW. WL NEED TO WATCH AREA OF PCPN ENTERING
SOUTHSIDE VA ATTM. THIS AREA HAS UPR SUPPORT TO IT. THAT/LL BE THE
MAIN SOURCE FOR PCPN OVNGT. HV INCREASED POPS TO LKLY ACRS ENTIRE
AREA.
TEMP FCST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. H8 TEMPS AND VERT TKNS SUPPORT
RAIN...EVEN ACRS THE RDG TOPS. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO REDUCE
SPREAD BTWN MTNS AND VLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL QPF OF A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE N/NW
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT ARE POSSIBLE. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
MIN TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY SLOT HAS WORKED INTO DC/BALT AREA...PROMPTING IMPVG
CONDS...PREDOMINATELY MVFR THO SOME VFR VSBYS. HWVR...LLVLS STILL
SATD. UPON SUNSET...XPCT CONDS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGN W/ LOW
CLDS/DZ/FOG. IFR AT BEST TWD DAWN.
TMRW CONDS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...WITH CIG/VSBY XPCD TO REACH
MVFR THRESHOLDS LT MRNG. GENERALLY LGT NELY WINDS THRU EARLY
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO NW AROUND 5 KT TWD SUNRISE.
SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N/NW ON SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS 15KT OR BELOW. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...AND VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS RMN LGT NEAR CENTER OF LOPRES. AREAS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG WILL CONT TO CAUSE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT. A FEW
TSRA MAY THREATEN MD BAY WATERS OFF PT LOOKOUT. HV ADDED THAT TO
FCST FOR NXT SVRL HRS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N/NW AND THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SLIGHTLY DEEPENS OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FM A CNTY BASED STANDPOINT...CONDS IMPVG...SPCLY ACRS NE MD. LTST
REPORTS SUGGEST NUMBER OF ROAD CLOSURES BCMG LESS NMRS. WL BE
DROPPING FLOOD WRNGS AS CONDS PERMIT.
HWVR...THIS SLUG OF WATER HAS MADE IT INTO THE RIVERS...W/ RIVER
FLOOD WRNGS IN EFFECT FOR MANY PTS. CRESTS RIGHT NOW IN THE
HEADWATERS OF THE PTMC BASIN /NRN AND SRN BRANCHES/ AS WELL AS IN
THE RAPPAHANNOCK BASIN. THE CRESTS WL WORK BLO THE BRANCHES BUT
ABV HARPERS FERRY TMRW. THE SHEN BASIN WL BE SEEING CRESTS TNGT-
SUN AS WELL. SITES BLO HARPERS FERRY SHUD XPCT CRESTS SUN NGT-MON
BASED ON CRRNT FCSTS. MOST FLOODING FCST TO BE MINOR-MDT. PLS SEE
LTST FLOOD WRNG FOR SITE SPECIFIC INFO.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CSTL FLOOD WRNG FOR THE AREAS ALONG THE WRN SHR OF THE CHSPK BAY
AND ALONG THE TIDAL PTMC THRU SUN MRNG TIDE CYCLE. WATER LVLS CONT
2 TO 3 FT ABV NRML. THIS YIELDS MINOR TO MDT FLOODING AS OF THE
LAST TIDE. APPEARS AS THO SLUG OF WATER HAS BEEN PUSHED WELL INTO
THE INLETS. GTND2 CRESTED ABV 7 FT FOR A 2ND CYCLE. BALT SEEING
SIMLR INFLUENCE BASED ON REPORTS...PATAPSCO RIVER/BALT HARBOR
EXPERIENCING MORE ISSUES THAN WRN SHORE BALT CNTY.
THE NXT HIGH TIDE ALSO POSES CONCERNS...THO VALUES SHUD BE SIMLR
TO PAST 2 CYCLES. AFTR THAT...LOW STARTS ITS PROCESS OF KICKING
OUT...AND W/NW WNDS ENSUE...WHICH SHUD ASSIST IN DRIVING WATER
OUT...OR AT LEAST LETTING WATER DRAIN OUT. MINOR FLOODING STILL
XPCTD FOR SVRL CYCLES TO COME...AND MAY BE AGGRAVATED BY
FRESHWATER COMING DOWN THE PTMC.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ007-011-
013-014-016>018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ052>055-
057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...LISTEMAA
LONG TERM...LISTEMAA
AVIATION...HTS/SBK/LISTEMAA
MARINE...HTS/LISTEMAA
HYDROLOGY...HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
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