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FXUS61 KLWX 141430
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1030 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low over southern Pennsylvania will lift away from
the region today. Upper level ridge will build over the region
today through Thursday. A cold front will move through the area
late in the week or early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Deep moisture plume has been shunted well offshore, but some
mid-level moisture remains over the area in the vicinity of
upper low located over southeastern PA. Still appears there
could be a few spotty showers and/or t-storms this afternoon
with daytime heating and residual moisture, but cvrg should be
significantly less than yesterday and not pose any threat of
flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge will build over the region through Thu.
Strengthening subsidence inversion will keep things capped and
dry Wed with no showers or t-storms expected. It will be warmer
with highs approaching 90F.

On Thu, some moisture will start moving in from the west Thu
associated with a shortwave-trough moving across the Midwest
states. Isolated afternoon and evening convection appears
possible over the Appalachians mtns. Otherwise, increasing mid
and high level clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will approach the area on Friday, which will lead
to an increased threat for showers and thunderstorms throughout
the day. Given the southwesterly flow ahead of the front, and
the fact that the front looks to pass through mid to late
afternoon sometime, temperatures will likely be above average.
Expect high temperatures in the low 90s. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible early in the day, becoming likely
by early to mid afternoon as the front approaches.

For the weekend, this front appears to stall somewhere across
southern VA. At this point, guidance keeps the front south of
our CWA. Also, a few impulses of shortwave energy move through
Saturday and Sunday, which could aid in shower and thunderstorm
development, primarily in the higher elevations. So, will keep
slight chance POPs in those areas. Also, given that the front
does stall in southern VA, the best chance for showers and
storms would be along southern portions of the CWA, so have
introduced higher POPs in that region. High temperatures will be
in the mid 80s for both days as well, so about average for this
time of year.

The stationary front may then lift north across the region on
Monday as a warm front, continuing the chance of showers and
thunderstorms into Monday. Again, temperatures would remain in
the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Isold to widely sct showers or t-storms expected today. Patchy
late night fog at KMRB and KCHO possible.

VFR conditions expected for most of Friday and Saturday.
However, periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible late on
Friday and Saturday for possible showers and thunderstorms due
to a frontal boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds through Thu. Isolated t-storms possible today, but
should be dry Wednesday and Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms may return on Friday into Saturday
due to a front. Breezy conditions possible on Friday into early
Saturday morning, but uncertain as to if the small craft
criteria will be reached.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/RCM
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...LFR/CJL/RCM
MARINE...LFR/CJL/RCM
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