FXUS64 KLZK 102316
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
616 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021
Upper level low pressure over central Illinois will continue to
pull off to the east this evening. Gusty surface winds will
subside shortly after sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes.
Mid to upper level moisture rotating around the same system will
also move out this evening with clear skies expected afterwards.
Widespread VFR conditions will continue through the period.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 254 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday
As an upper cyclone and associated surface system pull away from
the area this evening, the surface pressure gradient will relax
and boundary layer decoupling will allow winds to diminish.
Surface ridging will then move across the Gulf states on Sunday as
flow aloft becomes zonal. Tranquil conditions will persist
through the period with temps rebounding to near or above average
by tomorrow. By Monday, a northern stream mid/upper level cyclone
will cross the northern Plains and nudge another front towards the
area from the northwest with yet another front draped lazily along
the Gulf Coast. Any precipitation associated with these boundaries
should hold off until the long term period.
LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday Night
A stagnant pattern is expected in the extended period. A front will
remain nearly stationary along the Gulf Coast, with strong high
pressure staying mostly to the north. Weak systems aloft will ride a
quasizonal flow, and will interact with the stalled front.
Given the scenario, chances of showers are in the forecast on most
days, with the highest probabilities in southern Arkansas nearest
the front. Precipitation amounts are not much overall, with tenth to
half inch totals over north and central sections, and a half inch to
an inch across the south.
Temperatures throughout the period will be mostly below average.
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