FXUS64 KLZK 190602 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
102 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018
Updated to include the 06z aviation discussion.
Mid/high level moisture will increase through the period as a
cold front approaches from the northwest. VFR conditions will
prevail through the evening into early Friday. Stratiform
precipitation will overspread the TAF sites from northwest to
southeast on Friday reducing VFR conditions to MVFR through the
evening. Abundant low level moisture trapped near the surface may
lead to MVFR fog overnight Friday at all terminals. Winds will
light and variable through the period.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 622 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018)
Mid to high level moisture will slowly increase through the TAF
period as a cold front approaches from the west. Ceilings will
gradually lower from northwest to southeast through the period.
Precipitation will become predominant late in the period for the
northern and central terminals. VFR conditions are expected
through the night but will slowly deteriorate to MVFR by the end
of the period. Winds will remain generally light with an easterly
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 343 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday
Upper high pressure continues over the southeast with an upper
trough over the Rockies. The upper trough will move east into the
Plains Friday and further southeast Saturday. Models seem to be a
little slower with the movement than they were yesterday.
Expect clouds to increase tonight, then showers will start late
tonight in the west as a short wave approaches. Rain will spread
eastward on Friday and continue through Saturday morning especially
in the southeast. A cold front will move through Arkansas Saturday.
Temperatures tonight will fall to the 40s and 50s. Highs Friday will
be in the mid 50s to lower 70s.
LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
The long term portion of the forecast will start off cold and dry as
a cold front pushes south of the state by Saturday Night. The deep
upper level trough that helped drag the frontal boundary across the
region will move eastward from the Great Lakes Region through the
Appalachia and Northeast regions of the US. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure will build in behind the cold front, helping to keep drier
and colder conditions across the forecast area for Sunday and
Monday. Due to the low temperatures overnight (lower to mid 30s), we
could see frost develop across the far northern portions of the
state on Sunday morning, and perhaps spread a little further south
on Monday morning.
The upper air pattern will become more zonal through the early
portions of next week, which will shift the northwesterly flow aloft
to a more westerly direction. This slight shift in upper level flow
will allow a weakening upper level low over the Desert Southwest to
push eastward. Although the upper level low is expected to continue
weakening as it pushes eastward, the feature will bring a cold front
through the area and return rain chances to the forecast area
Wednesday through late next week.
High temperatures will remain mild, with highs in the 50s and 60s.
Low temperatures after Monday morning will gradually warm, with 40s
and 50s expected.
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