FXUS64 KLZK 132311 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
611 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
While some lingering SHRA may be seen this evening...most
terminals will remain dry this evening. However...additional SHRA
and isolated TSRA could be seen after midnight for some central
into the NRN terminals. Some very patchy fog/low CIGs may be seen
near sunrise. Beyond mid morning...dry conditions should be
dominant through the rest of the period for all terminals.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 253 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday
This morning's remnant thunderstorm complex that originated in
central Oklahoma has made its way into western portions of the
area this afternoon. Through the evening hours, additional showers
and isolated thunderstorms will be possible with eastward
progression becoming more limited. Some CAMs have hinted at
additional activity developing along a remnant boundary across
northern portions of the state tonight and have included some low-
end POPs to account for this.
Otherwise, much of the forecast area will remain on the east side
of the H500 ridge through the short term portion of the forecast.
Some weak pieces of shortwave energy could move across the state,
but overall rain chances will begin to diminish. The heat will
begin to intensify and as southerly flow persists, dangerous heat
indices will be in store. Heat headlines are expected for at least
some portions of the forecast area into the long term.
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Little change to the current long term forecast with a fairly benign
weather pattern shaping up. Long term begins with a weak shortwave
passing harmlessly to the north of Arkansas and across northern
Missouri with a fairly weak cold front along the Arkansas Missouri
border. A few models have the front pushing south into the northern
part of the state before becoming parallel to the flow aloft and
stalling out, while other models keep this front to the north of the
state. As a result, with moist and unstable air across much of the
state, do believe at least diurnal precipitation chances will be
possible and we could see some more organized precipitation chances
across northern Arkansas if the front stalls in the state. At this
point kept precipitation chances fairly low, but will continue to
monitor this front.
Beyond this system, a fairly flat ridge will sit in place across the
region and keep warm temperatures and diurnally driven rain chances
in the forecast. Little change in the overall pattern can be seen
through the end of the long term and beyond.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday FOR Arkansas-
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