FXUS64 KLZK 091130 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
530 AM CST THU FEB 9 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA NOW...WITH STRATUS HOLDING AROUND
4000 FEET. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH A GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
AROUND 8000 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL LOWER...AND VCSH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST THU FEB 9 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND NOT MUCH WILL
CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH CLOUDS HANGING IN OVER THE NORTH CLOSEST
TO THE FRONT.

AS THE FRONT NEARS TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN
WESTERN ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A
SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY TO BRING AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN.

QPF ON FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
NORTH AND A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE. OVERALL...THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLDER/DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM HAS A COUPLE OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH...EACH WITH
QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY...WITH COOLER AIR
REMAINING ACROSS THE STATE. MOISTURE WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOVE
NORTH FROM THE GULF...WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN QUESTION WILL THEN BE IF THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN. AS THE WARMER AIR
MOVES FARTHER NORTH...THERE WILL BE A SWITCHOVER TO ALL RAIN...EVEN
ACROSS THE NORTH...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AS THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY
MAY BE AFFECTED...AND ANY MINOR CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE...SPEED...OR
MOISTURE COULD DRAMATICALLY AFFECT THE FORECAST.

RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST. WITH THE CONTINUING SOUTHWEST FLOW...MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A DRY DAY
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
DEVELOPS FOR MIDWEEK.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE ABOUT 18-24 HOURS DIFFERENT IN BRINGING
UPPER AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM NORTH OF THE STATE...WHILE THE EUROPEAN TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS
ARKANSAS. THIS WILL AFFECT THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL
A POSSIBILITY...DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES...WILL KEEP THE LOW END
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58

Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page