FXUS64 KLZK 141153 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the
northern half of Arkansas this morning. Precipitation should
become more hit and miss this afternoon/tonight.
Overall, mainly VFR conditions are expected through tonight.
There will be some MVFR conditions this morning, mainly due
to the rain/low clouds/patchy fog.
Winds will be south/southwest at 8 to 14 mph today, with some
16 to 22 mph gusts in the Ozark Mountains of the northwest.
Winds tonight will be south/southeast at 4 to 8 mph. (46)
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
The near term will feature a ridge of high pressure
from the Gulf Coast to the southern Rockies. North
of the ridge, a storm system aloft will wobble from
the central Plains to the mid-Mississippi River and
Ohio Valleys. At the surface, a weak cold front will
drift toward the region from the north on Wednesday.
Given the scenario, it will be somewhat like a tale
of two seasons across Arkansas. It will be mild and
unsettled across northern into central sections of
the state, with good chances of rain. Across the
southern counties, it will be hot with spotty
precipitation. The south will have better rain
chances Wednesday night as the front arrives.
As far as rainfall totals, widespread half inch
to inch and a half amounts are in the forecast
across northern/central sections, with locally more
than two inches in the Ozark Mountains of the
northwest. If heavier rain materializes, flash
flooding could be a problem in places.
While severe weather is possible, that will not
be the headliner during this event. Any severe
storms will be isolated, with damaging winds the
Temperatures will be below average in northern
into central Arkansas, and closer to seasonal
in the south.
.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
Widespread rain chances will continue, with heavy rain possible
through the forecast period. Broad ridging across the southern
United States will gradually push westward, allowing several upper
level disturbances to traverse the Northern Plains region. This will
help progress surface boundaries eastward, and towards our general
direction. The broad ridging aloft will prevent the boundaries from
making their way into the state, leaving these features stalled
north of the state. These conditions will allow for rain chances to
persist, with the largest rainfall amounts along the northern
portions of the state.
Finally, by the end of the period and early next week, the ridge of
high pressure will retreat to the Desert Southwest, allowing a
deeper upper level low to form across the Great Lakes region, and
allowing the surface cold front to move further south through the
Chances for rainfall each day will help keep forecast highs down in
the mid 80s to lower 90s, and overnight lows in the 70s.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 87 71 89 71 / 60 40 50 60
Camden AR 92 74 95 76 / 10 10 20 30
Harrison AR 79 69 82 69 / 80 70 70 40
Hot Springs AR 86 73 91 74 / 30 30 40 60
Little Rock AR 87 73 92 74 / 30 30 50 60
Monticello AR 91 74 94 77 / 10 10 20 30
Mount Ida AR 84 73 89 73 / 50 30 40 50
Mountain Home AR 80 69 83 69 / 80 60 70 50
Newport AR 85 71 88 73 / 50 30 40 60
Pine Bluff AR 89 73 93 75 / 20 20 30 40
Russellville AR 84 72 89 72 / 70 50 60 50
Searcy AR 87 70 90 72 / 50 30 50 60
Stuttgart AR 87 72 92 74 / 30 30 40 50
Short Term...46 / Long Term...CROSS
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