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FXUS64 KLZK 161926
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
226 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday
Fair conditions are expected during this period.

Large scale surface high pressure, extending from western North
Texas, to the eastern Great Lakes, will move slowly eastward during
this period, as the upper flow across the U.S. loses amplitude. This
pattern will promote continued dry conditions.

Near normal afternoon temperatures are expected during this period,
with slightly below normal overnight low temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
An upper level ridge will build across the southeastern US at the
beginning of the extended term, allowing temperatures to warm back
up to above climo, with low level moisture values increasing on
a southerly surface flow.

Models indicate a shoftwave moving into the area from the Plains in
the Friday night-Saturday time frame. The GFS is bringing the
shoftwave through a bit more quickly than the ECMWF and would favor
greater thunderstorm chances on Friday evening, with the ECMWF
favoring later development on Saturday. For the time being I have
placed some low POPs on Friday night, and have included greater
chances on Saturday.

A pronounced upper level trof will be moving into the area later on
Satuday into Sunday, along with a surface cold front. This should
bring a good chance of precip along and ahead of the front, along
with a cool-down back to climo normals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 42 71 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 43 75 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 42 71 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 43 72 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 44 72 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 45 74 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 40 71 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 42 70 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
Newport AR 41 71 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 43 74 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 41 71 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 41 72 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 42 73 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...53
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