FXUS64 KLZK 191809

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
109 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018


Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible
this evening with VFR ceilings forecast. It does appear a second
round of precipitation will be seen this evening and overnight
across KPBF and KLLQ. Unsettled weather will be possible Wednesday
morning, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs
at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 650 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018)

Area of light rain noted over SE AR this mrng. Hi-Res data cont to
show that this activity wl gradually dcrs in coverage toward
midday. Low clouds are working acrs parts of W-Central AR this
mrng, with combo of VFR/MVFR Cigs in the fcst. Most areas wl see
VFR Cigs this aftn, with small chances of SHRA/TSRA expected. Due
to low confidence is coverage, included VC at all sites this
aftn. /44/

SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Have seen subtle changes in the upper air pattern acrs the region
over the past 24 hours. Persistent ridge aloft had contd to weaken
ovr AR. Meanwhile, a broad mid-lvl upr low was situated along the TX
coast, with an assocd elongated trof/shear axis extending to N acrs
the Mid-South.

Abundant mid/high lvl moisture was working nwd acrs SE AR early this
mrng, with low clouds again advecting to the N acrs Ern TX/OK.
Predawn temps over the FA were mainly in the 70s.

Basically, we wl see a more unsettled weather pattern over the FA
the next few days. The aforementioned shear axis wl interact with
increasing tropical moisture to produce isolated/scattered SHRA/TSRA
today and again on Wed. Looks like Wed wl see the better chances for
rainfall as a stronger upr impulse apchs the area fm the Plains.

High temps wl cont to trend lower the next few days thanks in part
to abundant cloud cover. Readings on Wed are only expected to top
out in the 80s.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

Low pressure aloft will be over the Plains to begin the long term
period with an upper ridge over the desert southwest. The upper low
slowly moves into the midwest Friday and through the Great Lakes
Saturday. Another upper low moves into the northwest U.S. Saturday
night and into the Rockies Sunday. This low moves into the Plains
Monday as an upper ridge spreads across the southern U.S.

Increased rain chances are expected Thursday through Saturday as the
upper low moves through the area with increased Gulf moisture. Also,
a cold front will move into the state, stall across the north Friday
night and Saturday, then move back to the north Sunday. Rain chances
will decrease Sunday and Monday as the high pressure builds over the
southern states. Highs in the 80s are expected Thursday and Friday,
then a warming trend will begin Saturday and continue into Monday.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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