FXUS64 KLZK 160527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1127 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

Some MVFR or briefly lower flight rules will be seen through much of
the period as low clouds remain for much of the area. Some patchy
fog could also be seen...with most of the precip ending. No
widespread improvements are expected through Sat evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 512 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019)

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...


Some light FZRA/DZ or PL may be seen at the NRN terminals this
evening...but drier air should arrive by after midnight.
Otherwise...MVFR or briefly lower flight rules will be in place
through tonight into parts of Sat...with very little improvements
expected by Sat afternoon.


SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Latest surface observations show northeasterly surface winds across
the state left in the wake of a cold front, now pushing through the
far southern portions of the state. Light rain and overcast skies
continue throughout the state, although shower activity has started
to break up and dissipate gradually through the afternoon. Light
freezing rain was also noted across the far northern portions of the
state today, as temperatures hovered just near and slightly below

Expect shower activity and freezing rain to gradually come to an end
this evening, with a glaze to less than a tenth of an inch of ice
expected. Likewise, rainfall amounts should remain near or below a
few tenths of an inch.

Northerly surface winds will continue funneling colder and drier air
into the state, which will help keep temperatures down through
the overnight period. Expect lows tonight in the lower to mid 20s
across northern Arkansas, ranging to the mid 30s across the south.
Winds will gradually become more easterly on Saturday as
high pressure pushes east.

An approaching upper level low currently across the Pacific
Northwest is expected to swing through the Midwest, which will
provide another round of rain to the Natural State late Saturday
night through Sunday. Fortunately, rainfall amounts should remain
low, with only a few tenths of an inch expected, primarily across
the far southeast.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

The long term portion of the forecast will advertise precip chances
for much of the period and below normal temperatures. While the H500
pattern will be fairly active, out of the southwest with shortwave
energy regularly passing over the area, surface ridging will remain
in place to the north of the area keeping primarily northerly
surface flow in place.

Monday will begin dry but precip will become widespread overnight
into Tuesday with some winter weather possible across the west and
north before temperatures warm above freezing mid-morning Tuesday.
Precip will linger into Wednesday with perhaps another brief shot at
winter weather through Wednesday early morning across northern
Arkansas where temperatures will be below freezing.

By the end of the week, additional shortwave energy will traverse the
area in the SW flow aloft. With added lift, rainfall will develop
but model solutions differ greatly on placement and timing of these
features which could drastically change POPs/QPF late next week.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight FOR Baxter-



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