FXUS64 KLZK 081149 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
549 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019
For the 12Z TAFs, IFR categories will continue at most terminals
through the late morning hours. There should be slight improvement
to MVFR/VFR through the afternoon, however overcast skies will
linger through much of the day and could limit recovery. Low
clouds should return later this evening and overnight with some
locations possibly seeing patchy BR/FG, which may once again
reduce visibility. However, wind speeds are expected to increase,
especially across the northern terminals, which may impede
visibility reduction. Additionally, llws is expected to ramp up
this evening and tonight at most central and northern terminals.
Therefore, went for a more optimistic forecast for the tail end of
the forecast period.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 324 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night
Latest surface observations and satellite imagery continue to depict
dense fog across the majority of the state. Through the overnight
hours, the fog has gradually been advancing westward, which has
prompted the expansion of the Dense Fog Advisory. With southerly
surface winds continuing to advect higher moisture values into the
state, anticipate fog persisting through the mid to late morning
hours for much of the state. Temperatures have fallen into the upper
30s and 40s for most of the area, however there are a few locations
in north central portions of the state with temperatures
near/slightly below freezing. With visibility improving through the
day and southerly winds continuing, expect another mild day with
high temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s.
Broad cyclonic flow and weak troughing across much of the west
central CONUS will result in westerly flow aloft, helping to aid in
the development of a surface low and lower level trough along the
lee side of the Rockies. This will slowly build eastward towards
the state through the High Plains region this afternoon and
evening, which will increase wind speeds across the northwestern
portions of Arkansas. This feature should continue to strengthen
as it moves northeast through the Midwest, bringing slight chances
for rain to the northern portions of the state late Sunday night
and into Monday. Rain chances will persist through the day Monday,
increasing in the afternoon and evening hours as an associated
cold front begins moving into the state and the aforementioned
broad H500 troughing pushes southeastward from the Northern
Plains. For this forecast issuance, have decided not to included
chances for thunder as much of the available instability will be
well south of the state.
Temperatures will decrease drastically, with highs on Monday in the
60s and 70s dropping into the upper 20s to lower 40s for lows. Some
areas across northern and central Arkansas could see a brief
changeover to snow early Tuesday morning, however no accumulation is
expected at this time.
LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday
Colder airmass wl be advecting into the FA on Tue behind a CDFNT.
Much of the area wl still be seeing post-fntl rainfall on Tue as
well, but PoPs wl be decreasing fm the NW as the day progresses.
Still cannot rule out a brief rain/snow mix over parts of north and
central AR early Tue mrng, but no sig impacts are expected attm.
Drier conds wl return by Wed as high pressure settles into the Mid
South. Dry weather is fcst to persist thru the remainder of the
week. Progressive upper lvl flow wl bring weak upr impulses acrs the
area Thu and again Sat. However, due to the lack of sig low lvl
moisture return, we are only looking at an incrs in clouds with each
feature. Temps thru the PD are expected to stay below seasonal
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Arkansas-
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