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FXUS64 KLZK 190845
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
345 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

Main focus during the short term portion of the forecast will be
impacts from the remnants of TS Imelda which is currently
providing significant rainfall to areas east of Houston. Upper
ridging remains in place across the southern US, extending to the
northeast. At the surface, other than Imelda, high pressure across
the eastern US coast will be a dominant factor in the short term.

As Imelda drifts north today and moisture increases across the
region, showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to develop
from south to north across the state. Better chances will occur
during the afternoon hours as temperatures climb into the upper 80s
to mid 90s.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase substantially on
Friday given the close proximity of Imelda to the state. With
widespread cloud cover and some precip expected for much of the
day, temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler than
Thursday. Assuming KLIT climbs above 90 F today, but remains
below 90 F on Friday then that would break a late Summer 19 day
streak of high temperatures at or above 90 F. Any relief would be
well-received at this point...

Rainfall from Imelda will largely be focused across the
western half of the state, with localized heavy rainfall possible
across SW AR. Given the recent short term rainfall deficit and
soil conditions present across the area, the flash flooding threat
appears fairly low attm. Given the increased wildfire danger and
number of burn bans in place, any rainfall from Imelda would
likely be appreciated by many.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Long term period begins with broad H500 ridging over the E US with
an adjacent positively tilted trough axis extending from MT to the
SW US. As this trough progresses eastward and ejects over the great
plains, cyclonic flow at the surface will drive a cold front south
into KS, likely stalling as it reaches the AR/MO/KS state area. As
this front becomes a stationary boundary, it will be the focus for
precipitation chances in N AR for the first part of the forecast
period. With increased rain chances across the northern half of AR,
temperatures are expected to remain cooler with highs in the mid-80s
while southern AR should see high temperatures near the low-90s.

By Wednesday of next week, rain chances begin to dwindle yet again
as upper level flow becomes amplified. Ridging builds across the
Central US in conjunction with deep troughing over the SW US. Based
on the GFS, by late next week, this could be the next major
rain/significant weather producer for the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 94 70 84 69 / 20 20 50 20
Camden AR 90 71 83 70 / 40 60 70 30
Harrison AR 89 67 81 68 / 20 20 60 40
Hot Springs AR 90 71 80 70 / 40 60 70 30
Little Rock AR 93 72 84 70 / 30 30 60 30
Monticello AR 93 71 84 70 / 40 50 60 10
Mount Ida AR 89 70 78 69 / 40 60 70 40
Mountain Home AR 91 68 84 68 / 20 20 60 30
Newport AR 94 70 85 69 / 20 20 40 20
Pine Bluff AR 93 71 84 69 / 30 40 60 20
Russellville AR 93 71 81 70 / 30 30 60 40
Searcy AR 95 70 84 68 / 30 30 50 20
Stuttgart AR 93 70 85 69 / 30 30 50 20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...67 / Long Term...GREEN
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