FXUS64 KLZK 191715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1115 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021

MVFR ceilings will affect extreme southern sections of the
forecast area through 21z. VFR conditions will prevail across all
areas after 21z.



Short term...Today through Wednesday night

Latest surface analysis shows a surface boundary that extends
roughly from far SW Arkansas to just north of Memphis. Generally
light stratiform rain has developed over the far southern part of
the state where forcing and moisture is better. No convection has
been noted and none is expected with this area of precipitation

Rainfall has averaged around a quarter to half inch so far with a
few locally heavier amounts. Light to occasionally moderate rain
will persist through the mid morning hours in the same general area
before precipitation ends from the north as the front moves out of
the region. Light rain will likely linger into the afternoon hours
across the far south.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected for the majority of the
day which will help keep temperatures cooler versus what was seen
Monday. Highs today are expected to climb into the upper 40s to mid
50s which is pretty much spot on with climatological norms.

Meanwhile, another upper trough will be developing over the SW
United States, carving out a strong cut off low in its base. Upper
ridging will develop over the Rockies in response with the forecast
area of the far eastern periphery of this feature. This will result
in dry conditions for Wednesday. Clear skies tonight will allow
temperatures to drop back into the upper 20s to upper 30s. Highs
Wednesday will be in the 50s across much of the state.

The dry weather will be brief as another surge of moisture begins to
overspread the region late Wednesday and into Wednesday night. This
moisture combined with an upper level impulse and enhanced lift will
result in precipitation chances for the most of the state Wednesday
night and into the beginning on the long term period. Once again,
the best chances of rain and the highest QPF will be over the
south. Low temperatures will be more than warm enough to keep any
precipitation in liquid form.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

A weak upper disturbance will be passing over SRN AR at the start of
the long term period...with SRLY SFC allowing for increased moisture
for portions of the state. A new cold front will drop south into the
state by Thu afternoon...with chances for SHRA high for the SERN
half of the CWA. This cold front will slowly drop south across the
state...eventually dropping south of AR by Fri afternoon. POPs will
then decrease by Fri night as the storm system exits the region to
the east...and drier/cooler air filters in. While some localized
heavy rainfall may be seen...but current QPF values will remain less
than 1.5 inches Thu into Fri.

Expect dry weather to be seen Fri into Sat as high pressure moves
over the region. This SFC high pressure will shift east by late Sat
into Sun as flow aloft becomes SW over the SRN Plains. A warm front
will lift north over the state Sat night and Sun...with POPs
increasing as a result. This warm front will lift north of AR by Sun
night before another cold front as associated upper shortwave trough
moves into the region. This will bring increased chances for SHRA
and possible TSRA to the forecast late Sun into Mon. While too early
to talk about details...some strong storms could be seen.
However...many uncertainties remain this far out in time to talk
specifics on any SVR Wx potential this late in the forecast.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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