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FXUS64 KLZK 170836
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
336 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

With the remnants of Barry finally to the east of the state, the
radar is currently dry. While no precipitation is falling across
the state, there is still plenty of moisture in the air. At the 3
a.m. hour, dew points currently range from the mid to upper 70's
with patchy fog being seen across southwest portions of the state.
Fog should burn off shortly after sunrise, however dew points
will remain elevated through the day today. These elevated dew
points combined with temperatures forecast to be in the upper 80's
to lower 90's will lead to elevated heat index values. As a
result, have expanded the existing heat advisory to cover the
entire CWA.

During the afternoon hours on Wednesday, models continue to show
ample instability in place combined with a vort max that will drop
down into northern Arkansas from Missouri. Do believe some
thunderstorms will develop across northern and northeast Arkansas.
With models showing over 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE it is possible some
thunderstorms that form could become severe...with the main
threats being hail and wind. By Thursday, ridge of high pressure
will be centered over Arkansas with dry weather in the forecast.
Temperatures will once again be in the upper 80's to lower 90's
with dewpoints in the 70's. Models currently suggest dewpoints
will be a bit lower than what's seen on Wednesday...therefore will
hold off on extending the heat advisory into Thursday for now.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Hot and humid conditions will be the story at the start of the long
term period...with upper level ridging in place across the region.
Temps will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s...with dewpts in the 70s.
Heat index values will range from the upper 90s to over 100 deg for
each afternoon Fri through Sun. Some areas could see heat index
values over 105 deg...with Heat Adv likely needing some
consideration during this part of the forecast. Chances for
SHRA/TSRA will remain low through Sat night...though some isolated
afternoon convection could still be seen.

By Sun into Mon...upper flow will transition to NW over AR as the
upper ridge shifts west of the region. This will allow a cold front
to drop south through the state early next week. Cooler and drier
conditions will be seen behind this front...with increased chances
for SHRA/TSRA expected along and ahead of the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 93 76 93 74 / 20 0 0 0
Camden AR 94 75 94 75 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 92 73 91 72 / 20 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 92 76 93 75 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 93 76 93 75 / 10 0 0 0
Monticello AR 92 76 93 76 / 10 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 92 74 92 73 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 92 73 93 72 / 40 0 0 0
Newport AR 91 76 92 75 / 20 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 92 75 92 75 / 10 0 0 0
Russellville AR 95 75 94 74 / 10 0 0 0
Searcy AR 94 75 93 73 / 20 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 92 75 91 75 / 10 0 10 0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening FOR
Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-
Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot
Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lawrence-
Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-
Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Randolph-Saline-Scott-
Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

Short Term...65 / Long Term...62
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