FXUS64 KMAF 051037
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
437 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...
A COOL DAY IS IN STORE FOR ALL AREAS TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
REMAIN PLENTIFUL AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AND THIS
WILL PROMOTE LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
AS WE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES TO HAMPER THE WARM-UP.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH THE
LATEST MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING. THE AMOUNT OF COOLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REMAINS IN
QUESTION... BUT THE LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER
AND WE HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THE
FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A CUT-OFF LOW
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA MEXICO WEDNESDAY...THEN
EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR OF MEXICO. AS THE LOW
HEADS SOUTH...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. WE/LL HOLD ON TO THE MENTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN. WE DID OPT TO TRIM THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF THE RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE THERMAL PROFILE MAY STRUGGLE TO
SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 48 33 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 49 31 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 52 40 59 37 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 50 34 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 43 28 54 35 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 47 28 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 45 25 54 28 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 48 31 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 48 32 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 52 33 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
01/06
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