FXUS64 KMAF 232221
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
521 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018
See aviation discussion below.
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies.
Any thunderstorms should remain east of the terminals.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018/
Heat remains the main story today, with a Heat Advisory in effect
through this evening for most of the area. Temperatures are in the
upper 90s and lower 100s for most this afternoon, with a few more
hours of heating to go. Near record highs will be possible for
many locations, with Midland's record high for today standing at
108 degrees, which was set last year. A dryline has begun to push
east across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, and is progged to
sharpen up by mid- to late afternoon across the eastern Permian
Basin southwestward to the Lower Trans Pecos. High-res guidance
continues to generate isolated storms by late afternoon in two
main areas, the first being on the Stockton Plateau and into
Terrell county, where a few showers have begun to develop, and the
second across the Western Low Rolling Plains/far eastern Permian
Basin. Given sufficient CAPE around 3000 J/kg, steep midlevel
lapse rates, and a surface focus of not only the dryline but also
outflow boundaries slowly drifting southward into the area, storms
that develop may become strong to severe. The large
temperature/dewpoint spread will lead to damaging downburst winds
being the primary threat, though hail will also be possible.
Storms are expected to diminish and/or move out of the area by
late in the evening, with a quiet night then expected with lows
ranging from the upper 60s to upper 70s for most.
Sunday will be another hot day across the area, likely warranting
another Heat Advisory, though most locations will be a degree or
two cooler than today. As the ridge weakens and shifts west,
southeasterly surface flow will yield increasing moisture and the
potential for thunderstorms, mainly across the Davis Mountains and
Big Bend Area. By Monday, temperatures will be cooler, but still
above normal, with most locations in the 90s, and 100s confined
to the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. Model guidance has started to
downplay the strengthening of the ridge next week, though
temperatures look to stay above normal in the mid 90s to around
100 degrees through the extended. However, moisture also looks to
remain elevated, with the best chance for storms mainly across
southern zones, including the Presidio Valley, Marfa Plateau, Big
Bend Area, and the Davis/Glass Mountains. Elsewhere, rain chances
are slim to none.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 78 105 77 99 / 10 0 0 0
Carlsbad 72 106 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 79 104 78 99 / 20 10 10 0
Fort Stockton 76 106 74 99 / 10 10 10 0
Guadalupe Pass 72 98 69 93 / 0 0 0 10
Hobbs 70 103 69 97 / 0 0 0 10
Marfa 63 98 62 96 / 0 10 10 10
Midland Intl Airport 77 106 76 99 / 10 0 0 0
Odessa 77 106 75 99 / 10 0 0 0
Wink 74 109 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains-
Southern Lea County.
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Big Bend
Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and
Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.
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