FXUS64 KMAF 061717
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CU EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS SHRA/TSRA
WILL REMAIN INVOF MTNS. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING WILL
KEEP S-SE WINDS UP AT MOST SITES THROUGH 06Z. OTHERWISE SLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 13Z AS DECAYING LOW LEVEL JET MIXES TO
THE SFC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS SW... COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS
THAT AREA TODAY... BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. COLD FRONT
WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/

DISCUSSION...
VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EASY TO IDENTIFY ON 06/09Z WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. A WEAK FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA AS PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THIS AGREES WITH MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS THAT STALL THE FRONT OUT NEAR THE LUBBOCK AREA BEFORE
LIFTING IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW. AN
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST COAST DURING THE SHORT TERM WHICH WILL HELP BRING UPPER LEVEL
WINDS AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COUPLED WITH SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH...WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENTS ACROSS THE PRESIDIO VALLY AND
INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THESE AREAS...AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THIS RANGE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP
SOUTH NEAR THE AREA. AFRAID IT WILL SUFFER THE SAME FATE AS THIS
MORNINGS FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS CONFINED FARTHER NORTH.
STILL GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE FETCH AND
SHORTWAVES...AND SURFACE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ON SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS....COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA INTO MID WEEK GIVEN THESE DYNAMICS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONGER FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK. THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER CONTINUITY.

HYDROLOGY...
RELEASES OUT OF LUIS LEON RESERVOIR IN MEXICO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. RIVER GAGES ON
THE RIO CONCHOS AT OJINAGA AND INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE AT PRESIDIO
HAVE INDICATED A STEADY INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH INTERNATIONAL
BRIDGE JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 420 AM CDT. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS LOCATION WITH STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS
AVAILABLE FOR THE DOWNSTREAM SITES. ANY RAINFALL IN THE RIO
CONCHOS BASIN AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL
RAPID RISES ALONG THE RIVER. INTERESTS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND FLOWS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
AND USE CAUTION AROUND THE RIVER. FARMERS AND RANCHERS SHOULD
CONSIDER MOVING LIVESTOCK AND MACHINERY OUT OF FLOOD PRONE AREAS
AT THIS TIME IF RIVER LEVELS ALLOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
PLEASE SEE THE RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS PAGE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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