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FXUS64 KMAF 080125
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
825 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

.UPDATE...

...Heat Advisory along the Rio Grande Valley has been allowed to
expire for today. Heat Advisory still in effect for Wednesday
afternoon...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures will continue to cool below Heat Advisory
thresholds, so the advisory has been allowed to expire. Heat
Advisory along the Rio Grande river valley will continue for
Wednesday afternoon with similar temperatures that we saw today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 613 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR wx is expected overnight as storms near CNM and FST dissipate
through 02Z. SE winds less than 10kts thru the night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending from the Pacific into the Central Plains today
will continue over the region through next week. This will result
in unseasonably hot wx for the area.

The 500mb chart out through 240hrs shows the ridge to remain intact
through day 10 so no change for the next week and a half expected.
Cannot say when this pattern will break down. Temps climbing to 100
or more for the Pecos and Rio Grande... already have a Heat Advisory
out for portions of the Rio Grande. Temperatures of 110 degrees
have been reported at Rio Grande Village. These advisories will
continue and expand... could end up tying or breaking some record
highs but the latest long term guidance has come in a few degrees
cooler next week than previous outlooks. On Thursday could see
highs up to 107 degrees for the Pecos River valley... increasing to
109 by Sunday. By Monday could see highs along the Rio Grande of up
to 115. Lows will remain elevated in the the mid to upper 70s with
even some 80s expected so each day will start on the warm side.

MAF radar will down for an upgrade the rest of the week. Based on
satellite and neighboring radars have some showers and thunderstorms
over the Davis Mtns south and eastward... and over the Guadalupe
Mtns. On Wednesday models develop qpf over the western slopes of the
Davis Mtns up through the Guadalupes so will expand isolated pops
northward... and throw a little pops over the Mtns for Thursday
afternoon. After that it looks dry... as subsidence from the ridge
increases storm chances will decrease.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 74 101 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 73 104 74 107 / 10 0 0 0
Dryden 78 102 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 74 100 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 70 96 72 99 / 10 10 0 10
Hobbs 71 100 73 103 / 0 0 10 0
Marfa 62 94 63 97 / 10 20 0 10
Midland Intl Airport 74 102 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 74 101 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 76 104 77 106 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Heat Advisory from 3 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Lower Brewster
County.

&&

$$

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