FXUS64 KMAF 101135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
635 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021


Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds
will gradually veer to the S/SE at all terminals, with speeds
expected to remain around 12kt or less.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 215 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021/

Today's post-frontal airmass will drop high temps back very close to
normal for areas e and n of the Pecos River, swrn reaches of CWFA
will be a few degrees above normal. Dry conditions will continue
despite the cooler temps and winds will be tame making for pleasant
day. Sun, underneath dry nw flow aloft, high temps will make a rapid
return to well above normal as a surface low deepens INVOF ne NM and
as an 24-26C 85h thermal ridge covers most of the CWFA. 85h-7h layer
winds will be 15kts or less and other than a few afternoon gusts, in
response to deep mixing, winds will be relatively low. However a
cold front will arrive Mon AM, in the nrn CWFA near 4 AM, I-20
corridor near 7 AM, and I-10 before 10 AM. 20-25 mph sustained winds
thru late Mon morning and 15-20 mph in the afternoon. By Tue AM
winds a few thousand ft AGL will turn se and mstr/clouds are
expected to return across Lower Trans Pecos and PB. Clouds and
surface ridging will prevent the boundary layer from destabilizing,
thus any deeper convection would be elevated and probably isold.
Similar set-up for Wed, and temps well below normal expected Tue-
Wed. By Thu some signs that mixing will be sufficient to result in
formation of a dryline and a better differential heating gradient.
Mid-level LRs are not overly impressive, but could be around 7 C/KM
along the dryline and there is some signs of mid-level speed max.
Yet another cool re-enforcement is possible Fri, depending on timing
it could be a convective focus? In general QPF is generated each day
Tue-Fri across ern half of the CWFA with ECMWF the wettest with
totals of 1-2 inches, GFS .5" or less. One reason for the difference
is apparent in the more robust CAPE fields generated on the ECMWF.
For now we are more skeptical and would not be surprised to see this
turn out to be an over promise and under deliver case wrt precip.

In the wake of a cold front, temperatures today will be closer to
normal for most. However, high fire danger will continue given the
prevalence of cured fuels as well as RHs this afternoon remaining
around 10-15% for most of the area, and some single digit RHs
possible across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains as well as through
the Rio Grande Valley. ERCs remain in the 80th-90th percentile for a
majority of the region, with 90th-96th percentile across the
Southeast New Mexico Plains, the eastern half of the Permian Basin,
as well as portions of the Trans Pecos. The mitigating factor when
it comes to more significant fire weather concerns today will be the
wind, which will be elevated/intermittently gusty early this
morning, but will gradually decrease and veer to the east and
southeast by this afternoon. However, near critical (and possibly
localized critical) conditions look to develop this afternoon,
mainly across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains where winds will
be a bit stronger given topographic influences. Thus, will handle
the fire weather threat today with a Fire Danger Statement in that

Tonight, recovery will be poor for a most of the region, with
increasing fire weather concerns on Sunday as winds increase out of
the west, and a quick rebound to well above normal temperatures
occurs. RHs Sunday afternoon will drop into the single digits
areawide, with RFTIs bouncing back up into the 6-8 range across the
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and the adjacent plains of Eddy and
Culberson counties. For now, have issued a Fire Weather Watch for
these areas, and have also included Chaves county, as despite winds
looking to be lighter there, antecedent conditions as well as the
hot and dry conditions forecast warrant inclusion. Forecast trends
will continue to be monitored, and if wind fields increase, the
watch and subsequent Red Flag Warning may need expanded eastward.

A pattern shift is expected beginning Monday, as the first of a
series of cold fronts moves through the region Monday morning,
serving to keep temperatures near and below normal through at least
Friday. Moisture will also slowly increase, with the best chance for
storms focused across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos
regions of West Texas. There remains uncertainty as to how much
appreciable rainfall will occur, though despite the increase in
moisture, fire weather concerns will be maintained given the
potential for lightning starts due to the continued presence of
cured fuels.


Big Spring 76 53 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 77 48 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 81 55 95 60 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 79 56 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 74 53 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 73 46 86 48 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 79 44 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 76 53 90 54 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 76 54 90 53 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 78 48 91 52 / 0 0 0 0


NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for Chavez Plains-Eddy Plains-Sacramento Foothills and
Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway
54 Corridor.



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