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FXUS64 KMAF 211147
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
547 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A challenging aviation forecast this morning, as precipitation
overspreads the area behind a cold front. MVFR ceilings are
expected for all but CNM for most, if not all, of the forecast
period. A wintry mix of FZRA/PL will affect MAF/INK at least
intermittently through 18Z/19Z, with FZRA also possible this
morning for HOB. Precipitation should remain all liquid at
PEQ/FST. There is also the potential for TS, however, have not
included mention at this time due to uncertainty, and will
monitor trends and update as needed. Otherwise, expect
northeasterly winds through the period, which could be gusty
through this morning at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Expect a wintry mix of precipitation to develop over the Permian Basin
into the southeastern New Mexico Plains this morning. Vigorous
cold air advection continues across West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico as the center of a 1036 mb arctic high builds south through
the central U.S. Low level upslope flow, in addition to
isentropic upglide on the 290K surface, will result in light
precipitation developing over the Permian Basin, but also
southwestward into the higher terrain, if not westward into
southeastern New Mexico. Precipitation will become more
widespread through 21/12Z and 21/15Z as a mid level shortwave
trough translates northeastward over the region, with the entrance
region of a 200kt h25 jet providing elevated instability, and
isolated thunderstorms.

Surface temperatures are on the way down, with freezing temperatures
expected to sink southwestward to near a Carlsbad to Kermit to
Big Lake line by 12/13Z. A pronounced warm layer near 800 mb
will likely result in precipitation falling as freezing rain in
these areas. The above mentioned elevated instability could
foster at least isolated thunderstorms, which will tend to change
precipitation to sleet, if not snow. Since the warm layer will
mainly be 3-6C, will carry freezing rain and sleet as the two main
precipitation types. Recent warm temperatures will make the
ground resilient to ice accumulating on roads early on. However,
expect ice to form on power lines, trees, vehicles, planes, and
other elevated surfaces early this morning, followed by bridges
and overpasses. Portions of the northern Permian Basin and
western Low Rolling Plains could see ice accumulate on secondary,
if not main, roads this morning since they will have the coldest
temperatures . As the influence of the mid level shortwave trough
and RRQ of the h25 jet head northeastward through 21/18Z, expect
precipitation to decrease from southwest to northeast.
Considering all of the above, will issue a Winter Weather Advisory
for the Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains from 21/09Z
to 21/21Z. Will leave Pops going tonight/Thursday morning along
the eastern fringe of the forecast area, with more freezing rain,
if not sleet, possible in these areas.

Cold temperatures/wintry precip should be over with Thursday
morning. Temperatures will warm above normal Friday with drier,
warmer, and at times windy conditions, lasting through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 32 27 53 41 / 80 10 30 20
Carlsbad 44 28 57 34 / 10 0 0 0
Dryden 50 33 62 49 / 30 10 20 20
Fort Stockton 44 30 61 42 / 30 10 0 10
Guadalupe Pass 44 29 54 39 / 10 0 0 0
Hobbs 37 25 55 35 / 30 10 10 10
Marfa 58 22 65 28 / 20 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 34 29 54 42 / 60 10 20 10
Odessa 35 29 53 41 / 60 10 10 10
Wink 42 30 59 39 / 30 10 0 10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
Andrews-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-Scurry-Upton-Winkler.

&&

$$
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