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FXUS64 KMAF 202314
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
614 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Could see a
storm or two get close to KPEQ in the next hour or so, but
convection looks to diminish quickly after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 206 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Mid level flow will back to the sw by late today and with deep
mixing the dry air observed on 12Z MAF sounding is materializing
with surface Td falling into the 40-50 range as far as e the
central PB. Today best convective potential will be found across
the far SE PB and the Lower Trans Pecos where level moisture will
remain. Despite 7h-5h LR's only around 6.5 C/KM CAPES are
forecast to be around 1500 J/KG with weak shear in the Lower Trans
Pecos. CINH is breakable per NAM12 and high resolution models do
focus in on Lower Trans Pecos today and a strong storm or two is
possible. Thur mid level flow will continue to back and s-sw 7h
wind indicate low level moisture will hold much farther w, CAPEs
above 1500 J/KG across a larger area. As such diurnally driven
convection will be possible, limited to slight chance largely due
to the absence of a shrtwv trof, a few strong storms are possible.
Hot temperatures will continue thru Thur. Noticeably cooler by
Fri/Sat per height falls/increased moisture/se winds. The best
chance of storms will be farther w into SE NM Fri PM and possibly
across the Trans Pecos late Fri night/Sat AM on periphery of
height falls/cooling mid level temps/3h jet/increasingly rich mid
level theta-e ridge. SW mid level flow will persist thru the
weekend and said theta-e ridge axis will remain in place. This
favors SE NM and Trans Pecos for shower/storms, some with heavy
rain per ensemble PWs of +1 to +2 standard deviations with periods
of flash flooding possible. Even though there may be precip
across the PB Fri-Sun the better chance will arrive Mon and
persist into Tue when 3h jet ejects across the area and when a
cold front will likely be moving s into the CWFA.

Fire Weather...
RFD wx is working out well across SE NM/GDP Mtns where RHs have
fallen to around 15 pct in the plains and where local wind in the
GDP Mtns are gusting to 45 mph. RH is expected o above 15 pct in
all areas by 7 PM MDT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 74 96 71 92 / 10 20 20 10
Carlsbad 66 96 67 94 / 0 10 10 20
Dryden 74 96 74 93 / 20 20 20 10
Fort Stockton 72 96 71 94 / 20 20 20 10
Guadalupe Pass 66 88 67 88 / 10 10 10 30
Hobbs 65 94 66 90 / 10 10 10 10
Marfa 60 90 60 90 / 10 20 20 10
Midland Intl Airport 74 97 72 92 / 10 20 20 10
Odessa 74 96 71 92 / 10 20 20 10
Wink 70 98 70 95 / 10 20 20 10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/29
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