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FXUS64 KMAF 210525
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1225 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Line of storms currently moving east out of the area. A Pacific
front moving across the area will be accompanied by a very gusty
W/NW wind overnight and through much of the day. High Wind in the
Guadalupe Mountains will be an aviation hazard until Tuesday
evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Four corners area,
leaving West texas and Southeast New Mexico under very progressive
SW flow aloft. At the sfc, a sfc trough over far west Texas has
resulted in a surge of Gulf moisture into the region, w/the 70F
isodrosotherm edging into our ern counties, making it feel more like
east Texas than west, and banking the dryline up against the higher
terrain. The approach/arrival of the trough will result in
increasing winds over much of the area this afternoon/night, and
we've extended the warning in the Guadalupes/Delawares into Tue
evening as a secondary trough approaches. KMAF VWP shows a 25kt LLJ
right off the deck, and this is forecast to increase to 60+kts after
dark. Needless to say, parameters for severe wx later today are
impressive. KMAF 18Z sounding shows mucapes in excess of 4600 J/kg,
mid-lvl lapse rates of over 7C/km, deep lyr shear of 50kts, and 0-
1km SRH of 54 m2/s2. Already, convection is developing over the
South Plains, w/a tor watch in effect for our NE six counties. Hi-
res models call for a first round of supercells this afternoon,
w/very large hail and a tornado or two, then more of a squall
line/QLCS developing late this evening as the Pac front arrives,
w/damaging winds becoming the main hazard.

Tue/Wed should be convective down days, w/post-frontal temps well-
below normal Tue, then rebounding to above-normal Wed under
continuing SW flow aloft as the secondary trough digs to CA/NV/AZ by
00Z Thu. Wed night, another sfc trough develops out west, resulting
in a surge of Gulf moisture return similar to last night's. This
will sharpen up the dryline out west, w/a chance of convection
developing along and east of this feature as shortwaves round the
base of the trough and move into the area. Thu, the trough ejects
into the upper Midwest, to be replaced by a tertiary trough over the
SW CONUS. Chances look even better for convection Thu night, when
long-range models hint at developing a MCS over the Wrn Low Rolling
Plains. Fri/Sat, a slight chance of convection will remain along
the dryline, w/long-range models hinting at the ridge over the Gulf
Coast states slipping under the trough and shifting to the wrn
CONUS. This will result in temps climbing to above-normal by
Memorial Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 57 91 70 87 / 0 10 30 30
Carlsbad 54 92 58 88 / 0 0 10 0
Dryden 63 94 73 92 / 0 10 20 10
Fort Stockton 58 94 67 92 / 0 0 10 10
Guadalupe Pass 55 87 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 52 89 60 86 / 0 0 40 10
Marfa 48 92 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 57 92 70 88 / 0 10 20 20
Odessa 57 92 68 89 / 0 10 20 20
Wink 54 95 65 91 / 0 0 20 10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 3 AM MDT Tuesday for Central Lea County-
Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.

High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Tuesday for Eddy County Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for Andrews-
Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-
Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves
County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe
Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT early this morning for Davis
Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson
County-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
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