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FXUS64 KMAF 180443
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1043 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with only some high clouds. Weak backdoor front will continue
to push west with wind at all TAF sites becoming easterly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front moved through the area last night and has brought
cooler temperatures and lighter winds to the area. High pressure
behind the front will slowly move south over the next 48 hours
creating slow but persistent cold air advection that will see
temperatures drop through Tuesday. Models are showing light QPF
developing Tuesday as an upper trough moves into the Four Corners
region increasing isentropic lift. Surface temperatures will be
below freezing north of I-20 creating the potential for a wintry
mix of precipitation that could cause some travel concerns Tue AM.
Forecast soundings show moisture is very shallow, extending only
to 4,000ft, which likely isn't deep enough for snow so the main
precip type is expected to be very light sleet or freezing rain
(possibly freezing drizzle given the very low QPF amounts). We
have seen earlier this winter light accumulations of only 1/10th
of an inch of ice creating travel problems and this usually occurs
when temps fall below the mid 20s. That puts the northern and
central Lea County and Gaines County as the areas with the
greatest potential for travel problems but everyone should be
alert. Conditions improve late next week with the next front due
on Saturday.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 33 48 31 39 / 0 0 20 30
Carlsbad 30 59 32 54 / 0 0 10 30
Dryden 41 58 43 63 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Stockton 38 59 37 60 / 0 0 0 10
Guadalupe Pass 34 58 27 45 / 0 0 0 20
Hobbs 27 52 23 47 / 0 0 10 30
Marfa 28 61 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 34 53 33 46 / 0 0 10 20
Odessa 33 54 32 48 / 0 0 10 20
Wink 32 59 32 55 / 0 0 0 20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
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