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FXUS64 KMAF 161943
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
143 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...As of 1:30 PM CST Sunday...satellite imagery shows
plenty of mid/upper level moisture flowing over the area. Of
course looking out the window confirms this too. Radar is showing
a few echoes to the southwest...most likely clouds or virga.

Model initialization still shows an unstable 6/7 wave pattern
across the Northern Hemisphere. Medium range models are in good
agreement thru the week...before diverging next weekend.

A weak baggy mid/upper level low over the Central Sea of Cortez
will weaken further into an open wave and lift northeast thru New
Mexico and the Texas Panhandle on Monday. There could be a few
showers in the west on Monday...but nothing to get excited about.
Another shortwave moving into the West Coast will split with a
piece of energy developing into a closed mid/upper level low over
the Panhandle on Tuesday. Have pulled back on the pops a bit on
Tuesday...it looks like by the time the system gets organized the
best dynamics and moisture will be in the extreme eastern CWA.

The remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend looks dry.
Northwest flow aloft on Wednesday will transition to a mainly
zonal flow aloft with a shortwave passing to the north of the CWA
on Sunday. Temps from Wednesday thru next Saturday look to be 5-10
degrees above normal (normal for MAF is 57). Temps on Sunday will
cool to near normal as a dry cold front drops south in the wake of
the shortwave passing to the north.

Taking a peek at Christmas...well I'll be a big grinch (I am 6'4
after all) for now and hold off. The GFS/ECMWF couldn't be more
different 7-10 days out (at least the ECMWF is consistent with its
previous run). With the unstable upper pattern the only guarantee
is that the models will change again...and again...and probably
again til the pattern stabilizes.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 65 37 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 63 34 59 38 / 0 10 0 0
Dryden 65 40 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 65 39 62 42 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 58 37 54 39 / 0 20 10 0
Hobbs 62 35 59 34 / 0 0 10 0
Marfa 59 31 61 34 / 0 20 10 0
Midland Intl Airport 66 38 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 65 38 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 64 34 62 37 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/33
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