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FXUS64 KMAF 171115
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
615 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Little change from previous issuance. SHRA/TSRA will again
develop across SE NM after 21Z. High resolution models mostly
keep SHRA/TSRA out of CNM/HOB and we will not include mention in
TAFs. Later forecast may need to include though? Winds have
decreased some, but as decaying LLJ is mixed around 15Z S-SE
winds will increase.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Upper ridging continues over the southern half of the country.
Temperatures are expected to heat up once again across the area
today with many places experiencing highs of 100+ degrees. Good
low-level moisture will be present with storms expected to develop
this afternoon across the higher terrain west of the Pecos River
and possibly spread as far east as the western Permian Basin.
These conditions will continue into Thursday and Friday with the
storms mostly remaining confined to the higher terrain. The upper
ridge becomes more centered over the region during the weekend
resulting in storm chances decreasing across the higher terrain of
West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Temperatures over the weekend
will be in the upper 90s to triple digits for most of the area.
The upper ridge becomes centered and builds over the Rocky
Mountains on Monday. An upper trough passing over the Great Lakes
region will send a cold front southward toward the area on Monday
resulting in cooler temperatures for the first half of next week.
Rain/storm chances are also expected to increase on Tuesday as the
cold front pushes through the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 100 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 100 73 102 74 / 30 20 20 20
Dryden 101 76 100 76 / 10 10 10 10
Fort Stockton 100 75 100 75 / 20 10 10 10
Guadalupe Pass 91 70 93 71 / 40 20 20 20
Hobbs 98 72 100 72 / 20 20 10 10
Marfa 93 63 93 65 / 30 20 20 20
Midland Intl Airport 100 76 101 77 / 0 10 0 0
Odessa 100 75 101 77 / 10 10 0 0
Wink 103 77 104 78 / 20 20 10 10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
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