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FXUS64 KMAF 232300
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
600 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The next 12-18 hrs are going to be messy as an upper trough swings
thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Models are in good
agreement bringing SHRA up from the south, w/deteriorating
cigs/visibilities overnight. Current obs at KE38 already show
VLIFR conditions there. For the terminals, periods of LIFR will be
likely overnight, w/prevailing SHRA between around 06-12Z.
Conditions may improve to MVFR most terminals by the end of the
forecast period. Frequent updates likely.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 111 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough that has been sitting back to the west expected to
swing east today reaching NM Wednesday and TX late in the day. Will
continue to have a secondary trough west of Baja but ridging
building into the West Coast. This ridge will build into the area
Friday through early next week with the next trough approaching
the region the middle of next week.

Have a moist airmass with thick cloud cover over most of the
region. Dewpts in the 50s... had fog earlier but most of this has
dissipated. Will have easterly upslope flow tonight and Wednesday.
Overnight temps will be elevated due to clouds and high dewpts
but these features along with rain will keep Wednesday highs
chilly and mainly in the 50s. Normal high for this time of year in
the 70s. Temperatures will begin to recover Thursday as
conditions improve and return to near normal by Friday.

Rain should start out W or SW late today and spread NE across most
of the area. Rain expected tonight and Wednesday so will keep
categorical pops in forecast with rain chances decreasing quickly
from W to E Wednesday night. Have tropical moisture from Pacific
hurricane Willa so potential for a good rainfall... MAF 12z
flight had PW over 1 inch. Model qpf tends to run too heavy in
these situations but many locations could receive 1/2 to 1 inch
with isolated amounts higher. localized flash flooding possible
and will continue to highlight in HWO but current moderate
rainfall in the grids looks to be on track. For a change do not
have much rain in the extended forecast next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 48 51 45 69 / 90 100 20 0
Carlsbad 51 54 46 71 / 100 70 10 10
Dryden 55 59 52 75 / 100 70 10 10
Fort Stockton 50 55 48 72 / 100 70 10 10
Guadalupe Pass 47 55 46 70 / 100 60 10 10
Hobbs 46 50 43 69 / 100 90 10 0
Marfa 47 60 44 72 / 100 50 10 10
Midland Intl Airport 49 52 46 70 / 100 100 10 0
Odessa 49 52 45 70 / 100 100 10 0
Wink 51 54 47 71 / 100 80 10 0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
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