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FXUS64 KMAF 181131
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Overnight storms continue
to diminish over the northern Permian Basin this morning. More
scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon and evening.
Won't include in the TAFs for now due to scattered nature of
convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Current observations show a weak front is currently situated
across West Texas and eastern New Mexico. It's exact position is
obscured by numerous outflow boundaries from recent convection but
it is likely somewhere near our northern CWA border. Convection
today will be focused north of this boundary as well as the Davis
and Guadalupe Mountains. An upper trough over the Northern Plains
will deepen Sunday, giving an additional push to the front that
will move it south into the CWA, providing a focus for storms and
increasing rain chances on Monday. Temps behind the front will be
slightly cooler, but only by a few degrees.

The upper high quickly builds back east into West Texas by mid
week and remains into the weekend. Fortunately relatively low
upper heights and a sustained southeast flow will dampen the
warming trend and keep high temps near to slightly above normal.
However the high will be strong enough to suppress most
convection, allowing only a few storms to enter the northern
Permian Basin in weak northerly flow.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 98 76 99 72 / 10 20 30 50
Carlsbad 97 73 98 71 / 30 40 20 30
Dryden 101 76 99 75 / 10 20 30 40
Fort Stockton 97 74 98 72 / 20 20 40 40
Guadalupe Pass 90 70 92 67 / 30 40 20 20
Hobbs 94 71 95 67 / 20 30 20 40
Marfa 90 66 90 64 / 40 30 50 40
Midland Intl Airport 98 76 98 73 / 10 20 30 40
Odessa 98 76 98 73 / 10 20 30 40
Wink 100 76 101 73 / 10 30 20 30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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