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FXUS64 KMAF 271135
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
635 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Satellite shows MVFR CIGS ~60nm SE of MAF and developing NW. Some
short-term high resolution models briefly bring low clouds into
MAF and based on latest satellite loops we will opt to carry a
TEMPO MVFR CIG group between 12Z-14Z at MAF. Otherwise w winds
near 20kts will prevail. Of next concern is the cold front that
will arrive right at the end of this forecast period. NE wind of
20-25 mph are expected around 12Z/28 with brief MVFR CIGS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The start of Memorial Day Weekend will be a hot one, though a
strong cold front tonight will bring much cooler temperatures to
the area. Thunderstorm chances will also return on Sunday and
Monday, becoming more widespread Tuesday onward. Below normal
temperatures are expected from Sunday through the end of next
week.

Another unseasonably hot day is on tap across Southeast New Mexico
and West Texas today. Given 850mb temperatures similar to, or even
slightly warmer than yesterday, expect highs into the mid 90s and
lower 100s once again for most. Also, there look to be less high
clouds across the region today, thus would not be surprised if a
few locations are a degree or two warmer than on Friday. The only
locations that look to escape the hot temperatures today are
across higher terrain, where middle to upper 80s are expected this
afternoon. Breezy west to southwest downslope winds will develop
this afternoon, and given the continued hot and dry pattern,
critical fire weather conditions are once again expected to
develop across Southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and
most of Culberson county. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for
these areas, please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for
additional details.

Overnight tonight, a retreating dryline looks to edge into
southeastern portions of the forecast area, resulting in a chance
of thunderstorms, mainly across the Lower Trans Pecos into
eastern portions of the Big Bend Area. The primary focus continues
to be on a strong cold front that will make its way south into
the area overnight tonight. The NAM is about 3 hours faster with
the front than the GFS, though the overall consensus is that the
front will be south of the Pecos River by late morning, and to the
Rio Grande by late Sunday afternoon. Given the timing of the
front, the best rain chances on Sunday look to be focused
primarily along and west of the Pecos River, with drier air
settling in across the Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico.
Ahead of the front, warm temperatures as well as continued
westerly to southwesterly flow aloft are expected to result in
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, a few of
which may become strong. The big story with the front will be much
cooler temperatures, with highs on Sunday expected to be in the
lower to middle 80s for most of the area, with 90s confined to the
Rio Grande Valley. Breezy northeasterly winds are also expected
in the wake of the front, with winds becoming gusty at times,
particularly across the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico,
though these winds will diminish by Sunday night.

Persistent easterly to southeasterly flow behind the front will
maintain ample moisture across the area well into next week, with
widespread cloudcover expected to keep temperatures below normal
each afternoon. Highs through next Thursday look to generally be
in the upper 70s and 80s, with lows each night in the 50s and 60s.
A series of disturbances in the flow aloft will keep
rain/thunderstorm chances in the forecast each day next week as
well, though the best opportunity for widespread precipitation
looks to be Tuesday and Wednesday, as a negatively tilted trough
takes shape across the Desert Southwest and moves toward the area.
While guidance differs on the evolution of this feature, it
appears the overall trend will be for rain chances to gradually
shift eastward by Friday, with slightly warmer, but still below
normal temperatures expected for the end of next week.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire wx concerns continue to be heightened today as the drying and
heat continue to wear on. Southeast New Mexico and Culberson
County will again be the favored areas for critical conditions
with high to very high fire danger. ERCs have rose to around the
75th percentile. The strongest west winds of 15-25 mph in the
plains, 25-35 mph in the GDP Mtns will occur between 2 and 6 PM
MDT. A cold front Sunday AM will bring an end to the critical fire
wx, and the chance of rain will increase into mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 102 66 83 62 / 0 10 20 20
Carlsbad 98 59 84 58 / 0 0 10 10
Dryden 100 73 88 67 / 10 30 40 50
Fort Stockton 99 66 81 63 / 10 20 20 30
Guadalupe Pass 89 57 76 56 / 0 0 10 20
Hobbs 94 57 81 54 / 0 0 10 10
Marfa 92 57 80 56 / 0 10 20 30
Midland Intl Airport 100 63 83 60 / 0 10 20 20
Odessa 100 64 82 60 / 0 10 10 20
Wink 101 61 86 61 / 0 10 10 20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
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