FXUS64 KMAF 150530
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 AM CDT MON MAR 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AT KMAF AND KINK THROUGH
11Z. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS TODAY PRODUCING A PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010/

DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING THRU N
TEXAS...W/THE LATEST NAM HAVING INITIALIZED BEST ON THIS
FEATURE...AND ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. W/THAT IN MIND...AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RAPID SATURATION OF THE
PBL AND ABOVE...SUGGESTING CIGS DETERIORATING AFTER 06Z AT
KHOB...SPREADING SW. CIGS SHOULD RANGE FROM VLIFR AT KHOB...TO IFR
AT KFST AND KPEQ...W/ACCOMPANYING REDUCED VSBYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...TO IFR/MVFR ALL TERMINALS.
W/THE BULK OF SHRA TO ARRIVE AFTER 18Z MONDAY...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT A MENTION OF PRECIP ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW S OF THE 4
CORNERS REGION AND MOVING SE. AHEAD OF SAID LOW LEE TROF IS PLACE
ACRS ERN NM INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TRANS PECOS. VERY WARM/DRY AIR
EXTENDS N-NE FROM TRANS PECOS REGION. TEMPS NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT N. SFC MSTR GRADIENT EXTENDS FROM E
CNTRL NM PLAINS SEWD INTO FAR NE CWFA. 7H-5H LR/S ARE STEEP THIS
AFTERNOON 8 C/KM. THERE MAY BE JUST ENUF LIFT FROM SFC HEATING
ALONG MSTR GRADIENT AND INSTABILITY IN MID LEVELS TO GENERATE HIGH
BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL MSTR IS
LIMITING A GREATER CONCERN. SWODY1 INDICATES A FEW STORMS MAY
RESULT IN HAIL NEAR 1 INCH. OTHERWISE AS UPPER LOW MOVES SE THIS
EVENING ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SFC WINDS TO TURN E-NE MAINLY FOR AREAS E OF
THE PECOS RIVER. SFC PLOTS INDICATED NE WINDS HAVE ALREADY MADE
INTO PB AND ACCORDING TO RADAR NE WINDS ARE JUST N OF KMAF. BY
12Z MON MID/UPPER LOW WILL BE INVOF SW NM AND AS 3H JET ROUNDS
BASE OF LOW LIFT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL INCREASE(LFQ). MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE S-SE INTO MON PM AND THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OF WELL DEVELOPED LOW WILL BE DROPPING S-SE AND
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
RAIN COOLED AIR IN 85H TEMPS DATA...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR
TEMPS IN LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIP. ALTHOUGH WITH
CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE IN/NEAR DEFORMATION ZONE THERE COULD BE
SOME SLEET. STILL HAVE A MENTION OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FT IN THE
DAVIS/GDP MTNS WHERE 1" IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN EVEN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SAY ABOVE 7000 FT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH LIKELY
POPS AND FROM A CONSISTENCY AND CONCEPTUAL PERSPECTIVE THIS IS
VERY REASONABLE. FCST ALREADY HAS LIKELY POPS IN AND WILL NOT NEED
TO MAKE ANY SIG CHANGES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS TOO
AND WILL OPT TO FOLLOW THIS TREND IN FCST...EXPECT 25-35 DEGREES
COOLER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...RESPECTIVELY...ON MONDAY FROM TODAY.
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL SLIDE SEWD INTO MONDAY
EVENING AND LOWER TRANS PECOS MAY END UP JUST ON THE W SIDE OF
BETTER/MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BY 12Z TUE. LINGERING WRAP AROUND
-SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE 12Z-18Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
DURING THE DAY TUE...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER AND THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACRS ERN 1/3 OF CWFA. AS SUCH
STILL TEND TO FAVOR THE COOLER TEMPS FOR TUE. WARMER WED/THUR AS
NW-N MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE W...BACK TO N70 ACRS CNTRL
PB BY THUR. TROF WILL BE PASSING TO THE N ON FRI. LOOKS LIKE FRONT
WILL STAY N OF CWFA FOR MOST PART THRU HEATING OF THE DAY...WHICH
WILL TRANSLATE INTO VERY WARM/DRY DAY. 85H-7H WINDS SUGGEST COULD
BE BREEZY TO WINDY TOO. FRONT THEN LIKELY TO MOVE THRU FRI
NGHT/SAT MORNING...THUS COOLER SAT BUT WARMING SUN UNDER WLY MID
LEVEL COMPONENT.

FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GDP
MTNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 6000 FT WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 6 PM MDT. LOCAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY BE
EXPECTED IN THE PARTS OF THE SE NM PLAINS S OF HIGHWAY 62/180.
OTHERWISE MUCH COOLER AND WETTER WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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