FXUS64 KMEG 100215

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
915 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Showers and storms have dissipated across the region. A quiet
night should be in store for the area tonight. Have adjusted POPs
for tomorrow...I have decreased the chance of rain some over the
area as short range guidance is trending drier for tomorrow. There
still will be a chance of some rain in the afternoon hours. Hot
temps will be the rule for the next several days. Afternoon and
overnight storms will be possible as we go into a NW flow setup
and this setup is known for MCS activity...so we will be
monitoring this situation over the next couple of days.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020/


A hot and humid afternoon across the Mid-South. The Memphis Metro
and areas south have seen scattered showers and thunderstorms
throughout the afternoon, which have brought reprieve from the
heat. Storms have behaved themselves, with winds remaining in the
30-45 mph with the strongest gusts thus far. Storms will continue
to move into southeast Arkansas and northwest Mississippi, where
a very unstable airmass exists. MLCAPE values are between 3000 and
3500 J/kg, but weak shear values should negate a more widespread
threat. Expect mainly outflow dominant storms to contain winds up
to 50 mph, with an isolated severe gust through sundown. A few
storms may linger over portions of north Mississippi through the
overnight hours.

The Mid-South will remain entrenched in northwest flow aloft
through this weekend. This will keep us in the MCS path each
evening through Sunday. WRT to heat, if an MCS tracks through the
area, heavy cloud cover and showers may keep temperatures from
reaching the 105F criteria. Nonetheless, our extreme southwest
counties should see dewpoints climb to the upper 70s Friday
through Sunday, which will only require temperatures near 90F to
warrant an advisory. Will hold off on drawing up an advisory for
tomorrow, as exact locations are not certain at this point.

Heat will really ramp up next week as an expansive 597dm ridge
builds in across the southern CONUS. It will shift into the Lower
Mississippi Valley by midweek and strengthen. This will result in
high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s through late
next week with 100F possible. The ridge looks to be strong enough
to suppress any real convection next week. Heat advisories will
be likely needed each day with possible Excessive Heat Warnings
for some areas late next week.



Showers and storms have started to wind down across the region.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the overnight hours and
for most of the TAF period. Light south to southwest winds will
continue overnight, shifting from the northwest Friday. A few
models indicate the potential for additional storms tomorrow, but
most of the hi-res suite keeps most of this activity south of the
CWA. Will continue to monitor trends overnight for any changes.





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