FXUS64 KMEG 171607

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1107 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019


Showers and thunderstorms assoicated with the remnants of Barry
have moved east of the Mid-South for the time being. A very moist
and unstable airmass in place across the region in the wake of
Barry. Dewpoints range from the upper 70s to around 80 in the
Delta. CAMs indicate that showers and thunderstorms may backbuild
toward West TN this afternoon but latest runs are less bullish.
This is probably because of subsidence assoicated with the upper
ridge building into the area. Will adjust pops for this afternoon.
The big story is the developing heat and humidity. Since
dewpoints are so ridiculously high afternoon temps approaching 90F
will result in heat index values of 105F or greater. A heat
advisory continue for today and will extend the advisory into the
MO Bootheel.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019/

Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms associated
with the remnants of Barry is affecting much of North Mississippi
at this time. Today should be the last day of increased chances
for showers and thunderstorms. The ongoing current convection will
continue across much of the day over areas of West Tennessee and
Northeast Mississippi. In addition, several CAM models show
development of showers and thunderstorms across Southern Missouri
that will move southeastward into Northeast Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel during the afternoon hours. The convection will
arrive in the Memphis Metro area during the late afternoon/early
evening hours before dying out across Northeast Mississippi just
after sunset. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. This
convection could also play havoc with high temperatures thus heat
indices might not reach Heat Advisory criteria. That being said,
a lot will depend on how high the dewpoints climb and the timing
of the convection so will keep current Heat Advisory as is.

Convection may continue during the overnight hours near the
Tennessee River. Otherwise, the Mid-South should begin to dry out
as an upper ridge builds over the area. The ridge is not quite as
strong as models had been showing several days ago thus can't rule
out isolated showers and thunderstorms occurring at any given time
Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will climb back into the lower
90s. With the recent rainfall, conditions should be very humid.
The combination of the humidity and high temperatures should allow
heat index values to reach near or above 105 degrees over much of
the area both Thursday and Friday. As a result, a Heat Advisory
may be needed for much of the area.

The hot and humid conditions will continue into the weekend.
Although chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to
increase as the ridge begins to retrograde back to the west and
believe it or not moisture from Barry comes back around and into
the Southeastern United States. Best chances for rain will occur
over Northeast Mississippi. Elsewhere across the CWA, Heat
Advisories will likely need to be continued.

A cold front will move into the Mid-South Monday into Monday
Night. The front will bring relief from the hot and humid
conditions, but will also bring an increased chance for showers
and thunderstorms.

Lingering convection may continue across North Mississippi on
Tuesday from the departing front. Otherwise, expect beautiful
conditions across the rest of the CWA with highs in the mid 80s
and lower humidity.



/12z TAFs/

Thunderstorms will continue over northeast MS over the next 1-2
hours with more scattered diurnal convection this afternoon.
Confidence is lower than previous days that TS will affect
forecaster terminals, but VCTS was carried at all sites this
afternoon. MVFR/IFR ceilings this morning will gradually improve
with VFR conditions expected by mid/late morning outside of
convection. Expect storms to dissipate this evening with generally
dry weather overnight. If clouds clear out, there may be some
patchy fog tonight, but will watch how things evolve before
including in the TAF.



AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Coahoma-DeSoto-

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Fayette-Shelby-


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