FXUS64 KMEG 050236
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
836 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING THE
TEMPERATURES NEAR THEIR FORECAST LOWS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH BY MORNING.

AC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008/

DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BACK THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 30S NORTH OF
I-40...AND LOWER 40S SOUTH ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MAIN CONCERNS
IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM AND
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER PRECIPITATION ISSUES BY NEXT TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...COLD ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER MUCH AT ALL AS 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ECMWF/GFS LONG RANGE
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RESPECT TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
LEAN TOWARDS A QUICKER SOLUTION WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS KEEP ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY WARM THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GFS WAS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD AIR INTRUSION BUT HAS BACKED OFF A
BIT WITH THE 12Z RUN. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE
RAIN/SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BASED UPON ANALYSIS OF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS. STAY TUNED... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...KMEM...KTUP...KJBR...AND
KMKL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NORTH WINDS AT KMEM WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 8 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT-BKN DECK OF CLOUDS AT 10000
FT AGL WILL AFFECT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL LATER TONIGHT.

KNS

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 27 42 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
MKL 22 38 21 49 / 0 0 0 0
JBR 24 38 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 25 45 23 52 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




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