FXUS64 KMEG 211636

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1036 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018


Skies are cloudy across the forecast area this morning. A cold
front extends across middle Tennessee through northeast
Mississippi and into southeast Texas. Behind the front,
temperatures are in the 40s and 50s while ahead of the front
readings are in the low to mid 70s. A large area of rain continues
to slowly move through the region mainly behind the front but some
showers and thunderstorms may develop ahead of the front later
this afternoon. Made some adjustments to temperatures for this



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/

Currently cold front and leading edge of heavier convection is
snaking it's way from northwest Tennessee back into the northern
Memphis metro and east central Arkansas. Warm and dry southerly
winds out ahead with cool and wet northerly winds behind.
Rainfall amounts north of the front from this evening have mainly
been a half to one and half inches. A few cracks of thunder were
also embedded...but storms have remained well below severe limits
the past few hours...unlike earlier this past evening.
Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s in Randolph county...to the
low 70s in the south and east.

For today through Saturday...a flood watch remains in effect for a
large portion of the Midsouth. Model QPF continues to show a large
gradient over our area...with roughly an inch falling in Monroe
County Mississippi...to 4-8 inches over much of the real estate
along and north of I-40 the next four days. Best day for rainfall
to possibly ease up in both coverage and intensity will be
Thursday and Thursday night as the stalled front in north
Mississippi starts its surge back north. From this the elevated
convection would briefly refocus just west and north of our area.
Besides potential flooding...a few strong storms are favored.
First possibly along the frontal boundary today...then later
tomorrow into Friday as the boundary lifts north as a warm
front...and finally Saturday afternoon into Saturday night along a
second cold frontal passage...which depending on model solutions
may turn severe. The GFS is more bullish with this
unfolding...with a deeper surface low tracking into the Midwest
providing stronger warm sector shear over our area. The ECMWF
keeps a more conservative approach with a weaker wave trending to
a weaker and linear low level wind flow. Mid level lapse rates
from both models show a modest +6.5C with the GFS indicating
pockets of CAPE amounts of over a 1000 j/kg. This may be a bit
overdone...as both models are now trending to weaker 500mb height
falls...on the order of 15-20DM/6 hours. In addition both winter
climatology and persistence suggests the region should remain
socked in with low cloud cover as well...so the threat as of
writing this just isn't a slam dunk. For now will leave the
mention of severe storms out of the HWO. Temperatures this period
will range from warmer 70s over the southeast counties...to cooler
40s and 50s north.

Sunday through Tuesday...a fairly dry period over the northern
half of the CWA as surface high pressure tracks through the
Midwest and Ohio Valley. Farther south gulf moisture won't be far
off enough that a few showers could form each day. Rain chances
will ramp up over the entire Midsouth Tuesday night as south
winds transport moisture back north. Temperatures this period with
run about 3-7 degrees above normal.




Steady rain has begun at MKL...MEM and JBR and will likely begin
around midday at TUP. 2-4 SM vis will prevail through the TAF
period as a steady supply of moisture streams across the Region.
Thunderstorms are not expected to be widespread...but most likely
this evening near TUP. Included prevailing thunderstorms at TUP
after 00z continuing through the night. Winds have already shifted
from the North at JBR MKL and MEM and should shift at TUP as the
precipitation arrives. Winds should be sustained around 10-15kt
behind the cold front. Cigs should lower to IFR levels or lower
remaining IFR or lower for the remainder to the TAF cycle.



AR...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Clay-Craighead-
Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Alcorn-Benton MS-

TN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Benton TN-Carroll-


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