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FXUS64 KMEG 150850
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
350 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The quasi-stationary front across the Mid-South continues to
provide a focus for the development of widespread showers, and
even a few thunderstorms, early this morning. As of 3 AM, this
front was located roughly from Clarksdale, to Bolivar, to Camden.
The most widespread precipitation (and fog) at this time is along
and north of the boundary with little to no rainfall occurring to
its south. This will be the case throughout the morning, but the
front will gradually begin to move south through this afternoon,
eventually shifting winds from the north area wide. As this front
moves south, isentropic ascent weakens and condensation pressure
deficits climb. Thus, coverage of rain showers is expected to
diminish this afternoon.

Rain chances decrease tonight as drier air works in from the
north. Overnight PoPs range from 20-40% and it appears that any
precipitation during this period will remain light. This system
will have one final hurrah on Tuesday. Models are indicating some
subtle synoptic scale ascent coupled with the forcing attendant
to the right entrance region of the polar jet. With the drier air
already settled into the northern reaches of the CWA, rain chances
will be greatest farther south across north MS. Rainfall totals
tomorrow will generally remain around 1/2" or so, mainly south of
I-40. Expect a rather cool day with highs in the 50s across most
of the Mid-South.

A few showers will linger into Wednesday morning across portions
of north MS, but dry air will work its way south throughout the
day in the wake of an early morning cold front. Aside from the
morning showers, expect dry conditions Wednesday through Thursday
evening evening as shortwave ridging provides a period of
subsidence across the region. Temperatures during this time will
remain below seasonal norms, with highs in the 60s and overnight
lows mainly in the 40s. We continue to monitor the potential for a
light frost across portions of west TN and north MS Thursday
morning with overnight lows possibly dipping into the upper 30s.
The main caveat is that wind speeds may stay at or above 5 mph
which could limit the efficiency of the radiational cooling via
mixing.

A potent shortwave trough is progged to dive southeast out of the
Prairie Provinces of central Canada late this week, digging out a
potent trough over the eastern CONUS this weekend. The flow will
remain amplified through the weekend as a Rex Block sets up over
the West Coast. As the trough digs over the eastern CONUS, an
attendant cold front will sweep across the Mid-South early in the
weekend. At this time, the global models are in fair agreement
that this front will move through the CWA Friday night or early
Saturday. Rain showers were included in the forecast Friday and
Saturday, but at this time it looks like conditions will be
improving by Saturday afternoon as the dry air arrives and rain
moves to the south and east. This front will reinforce the
relatively cool air mass, maintaining below normal temperatures
through the weekend.

Johnson

&&

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

Stalled front to influence TAF sites this period....with showers
and a few thunderstorms with brief heavy rainfall. In between
convection MEM and MKL will deal with lower stratus/fog. Best
confidence for VFR will be at TUP early with cigs dropping to near
the IFR/MVFR threshold after 15/18Z. Rain threat will end late in
the period with improvements at JBR and MEM. Light north winds at
MEM...MKL and JBR will increase to 9-13kts with higher gusts.
South winds at TUP will veer north and increase later as well.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$
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