FXUS64 KMEG 180525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1125 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019


Updated for aviation discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 832 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/


A band of rain continues to push southeast across Northeast
Mississippi this evening behind a departing cold front. Expect the
rain to be in Alabama by midnight. High pressure will briefly
build into the Mid-South late tonight into Monday before more rain
begins to spread into the area. Forecast looks on track. Will only
update to remove early evening wording.


DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/

Skies remain cloudy across much of the forecast area this
afternoon with temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s. A large area
of light to moderate rain covers much of north Mississippi at this
time. This rain is just a preview of what much of the upcoming
week will be like across the entire forecast area.

The area of rain is along and just behind a cold front which
extends from middle Tennessee through central Mississippi and into
extreme southeast Texas. As the front continues to move southeast
tonight, the rain will eventually move out of the forecast area
this evening. Temperatures will turn colder as high pressure
begins to build into the region with lows Monday morning in the
upper 20s to mid 30s. High pressure will continue to build into
the region on Monday bringing dry weather for the entire forecast
area. Temperatures will remain below normal with highs in the 40s
to around 50 degrees.

By Monday night, southerly flow will start to bring moisture back
toward the region. As it does, some rain showers are expected to
develop late Monday night across portions of north Mississippi.
Temperatures will not be as cold Monday night with lows Tuesday
morning in the low to mid 30s.

On Tuesday, low pressure is expected to develop over the western
Gulf of Mexico and then track north. As it does, it will drag a
warm front through Louisiana and into south Mississippi. Plenty of
moisture will flow into the region ahead of this warm front
spreading widespread rain across the forecast area. Temperatures
will remain cool on Tuesday with highs in the 40s to around 50
degrees. As the surface low continues to move across western
Mississippi Tuesday night, more rain will move through the region.
Temperatures will be a little milder with lows Wednesday morning
in the upper 30s to around 50 degrees.

The surface low will move out of the region on Wednesday with more
rain expected. The surface boundary will remain close enough to
the region through the end of the week that rain will continue to
move through the forecast area from Wednesday night through
Saturday. There will be periods of heavy rain during the period
and as temperatures gradually warm, some thunderstorms may develop
as well.

A cold front will move into the region next Sunday which will
sweep the rain out of the forecast area for good. Rainfall from
Tuesday through Sunday may exceed 8 inches across portions of west
Tennessee and north Mississippi so flooding may become an issue
later this week.




MVFR cigs lingering at KTUP will improve to VFR shortly. VFR conds
will continue areawide through the period. Generally north winds
at 7-10 kts through the period.




Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page