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FXUS64 KMEG 191202
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
702 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018/

UPDATE...

Updated to add A Dense fog Advisory.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Patchy fog is developing across portions of the Midsouth, mainly
Northern and Eastern areas. Will monitor conditions and evaluate
the need for a Dense fog Advisory over the next couple of hours.
For now conditions do not look too bad, visibility across most
areas is above 3 miles. Temperatures are in the middle 70s across
most of the area with dew points in the low 70s. A weak frontal
boundary extends across Northwest Tennessee into Northern
Arkansas. A couple of showers began to develop along this boundary
earlier in the night, but quickly dissipated.

The front will weaken and eventually lift to the North over the
next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
along and to the South of this boundary keeping the focus mainly
across North Mississippi today, but area-wide tomorrow. The Storm
Prediction Center has included all of the Midsouth in a Marginal
Risk for severe thunderstorms. 30-35 kt effective shear ahead of
an approaching neutrally, to maybe slightly negatively tilted
trough should support primarily multicellular thunderstorms.
Damaging wind looks to be the main threat. The main limiting
factor for severe thunderstorms looks to be instability. Extensive
cloud cover and dew points in the low to middle 70s should help
to keep thermodynamic parameters in check. We may see CAPE's creep
up to around 2000 J/kg Monday afternoon with LI's approaching
-6C...not very impressive for late August. WPC's 5 day rainfall
totals top out at about 1 inch, highest over North Mississippi.

A few showers may linger Tuesday, mainly over North Mississippi,
but the severe threat should end late Monday. Tuesday through the
remainder of the work week as well as the weekend look mostly dry
with below normal temperatures. The coolest day will likely be
Thursday featuring morning lows ranging from the upper 50s to
middle 60s and highs in the low to middle 80s. Temperatures will
trend warmer Friday through the weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

A mix of IFR/LIFR conds in the short term due to fog and low
stratus. The trend through late morning will be towards VFR as
ceilings lift and fog dissipates.

A stationary frontal boundary, currently located near Interstate
40, will be a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon as it sags southward. Have added a VCTS to TUP this
afternoon, but confidence is too low to add to MEM and MKL at the
moment. The front is expected to lift back north late tonight,
with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected near the end of
the period. Winds will remain from the south and range from 3-7
kts throughout the period.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Crittenden-
Mississippi.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Pemiscot.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Alcorn-Benton
MS-DeSoto-Marshall-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Benton TN-
Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-
Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-
Madison-McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$
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