FXUS64 KMEG 231001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
401 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Models in good agreement at the beginning of the forecast period.
However, early next week the models start to diverge on the
solutions. The differences aren't as large as yesterday's 12Z run,
however, the GFS is still faster moving a system through beginning
late Tuesday and the ECMWF doesn't bring the system into the Mid-
South till late Wednesday. The ensemble models are a little
closer together with this event in that they are not at the
extremes the GFS and ECMWF operational runs.

So for the next few days it remains basically clear and dry with
mild temperatures. On Tuesday we should see some clouds start to
move in. Of course, at this time it looks like the GFS is the
fastest model and it is hinting that Tuesday could have some
precipitation, however, held off on the precipitation chances till
Tuesday night. Wednesday looks to be have a chance for some rain
with the frontal passage, however, if the ECWMF is correct this
may be too early for the rain.

Temperatures remain mild throughout the period. TLSJr


06Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue through the entire forecast period.
Winds will be variable at 5 knots or less for much of the forecast




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