FXUS64 KMEG 202007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
307 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017


Currently...Upper level high pressure is centered just north of
the Mid-South with surface high pressure extending from the
eastern Ohio valley into northern Alabama. Temps are around 90
with dewpoints in the lower 70s and heat index values around 100.
Isolated showers have started to pop up across North Mississippi.

Expect any showers and thunderstorms to quickly dissipate with
loss of heating. Another warm night is on tap with lows mainly in
the lower 70s.

The pattern will remain fairly stable over the next 7 days. The
upper ridge will remain in place through Saturday and then weaken
slightly before strengthening again early next week. Expect
isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms at
best through the period.

Hot and humid conditions will continue on Thursday with highs in
the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Tended to go a
little above guidance through the 7 day period since temps have
overperformed as of late. Surface high pressure will very slowly
retrograde west through the period and as a result surface winds
will turn more easterly and humidity levels will very slowly drop
this weekend into early next week.

A pattern change is on the horizon by the middle of next week. A
cold front is forecast to move into the region by the middle of
next week with upper troughing developing over the eastern U.S.
This should lead to more fall like weather for the Mid-South.




18z TAFs

VFR conditions to prevail across the region with a Cu field this
afternoon between 4-5 kft. Southwest winds generally less than 10
kts with a few gusts of 15-20 kts possible at KMEM and KJBR where
the pressure gradient is tighter. Some patchy fog is possible
tonight, but similar to last night think light southerly winds
will keep it mixed enough to not include in TAFs.




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