FXUS62 KMFL 161336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
936 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.UPDATE...The diffuse boundary that was lingering just to our
south yesterday has lifted back across the region this morning as
southeasterly flow strengthens around the ridge. Low level
convergence with this feature is minimal, but just enough that in
combination with a weak midlevel disturbance transiting the
western side of the ridge, we've seen an active late night and
morning so far across the local waters.

Models are having some trouble resolving the current pattern,
which is important as its unclear exactly what role outflow from
ongoing activity and the expanding convective cloud debris will
have. The Atlantic seabreeze will likely be diffuse given the rain
cooled delay in reaching max temps, and the Gulf breeze looks like
a non starter today. However, overall trends suggest that it
showers and storms will still be relatively numerous today, though
more muted in terms of intensity. Steering flow is a little
stronger today, so activity should have a more defined movement to
the northwest and focus this afternoon across the interior and
Gulf coast. Heavy rain and wet gusty downbursts will be the main


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 752 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

AVIATION...Active morning over local waters with SHRA/TSRA
vcnty all terminals. Slightly stronger prevailing SE flow should
help with Atlc seabreeze development 14Z-14Z, with VCTS for all
east coast TAF sites. Best chances likely to move inland of east
coast, but still remain close enough to keep VC mention through
sunset. Gulf breeze more uncertain today at KAPF, but likely to
see at least a S wind shift with TSRA in area 18Z-23Z. Another
round of Atlc SHRA overnight, which may require overnight VC
mention for east coast terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

High pressure over the western Atlantic exhibits an elongated
axis that extends slightly north of our CWA, providing light
southeasterly flow. This will allow the already soggy airmass to
sojourn over South Florida through at least the middle of next
week. Model soundings demonstrate this with PWAT values remaining
near and above 2.0", which is between the 90% and max moving
average for this time of year. At the same time, the mid-upper
level pattern will be mired by weak troughing with a series of
embedded impulses propagating across the peninsula. Given the
fairly buoyant airmass, enhanced lift produced by the pattern
aloft should continue to support scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. The best coverage being over the Atlantic waters
and adjacent east coast metro areas during the morning hours and
then focusing across the interior and west coast metro areas
during the afternoon and evening hours.

By Tuesday into Wednesday, the surface ridge axis is then expected
to sinks south across the Florida Keys. This will veer winds out
of the south-southwest and allow rainfall coverage to relocate
back along the east coast and interior in the afternoon. With
areas having already experienced repeated rainfall this past week,
the risk of localized heavy rainfall remains each afternoon
across the urban areas.

Mid-level ridging will strengthen by late next week and extend
zonally across the peninsula from the western Atlantic into the
Gulf of Mexico. While the surface winds look to remain out of
south-southwest, given the location of the low-level ridge axis,
model soundings indicate the return of more seasonable PWAT values
between 1.5" to 1.7" as a result of the drier mid-levels. This in
turn should help diminish rainfall chance and coverage some
during this time. However, the return of above normal temperatures
and triple digit heat indices are also possible across the region by
the end of the period.

Boating conditions should remain relatively benign with seas
below 3 ft and winds of 5-15 kts becoming SE today and then SW by
mid next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue across the local waters through late next week. Frequent
lightning, gusty winds, and locally higher seas are possible
nearly strongest storms.

West Palm Beach 87 75 86 75 / 60 50 70 50
Fort Lauderdale 85 77 84 77 / 70 50 70 60
Miami 86 76 85 77 / 70 50 70 60
Naples 87 73 88 75 / 60 40 60 50




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