FXUS62 KMFL 290702

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
302 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

.Short Term (Today through Saturday)...
Model solutions show fair agreement in having weak ridging over
the state as high pressure remains anchored over the western
Atlantic, keeping SoFlo under a general weak SE flow today and
Saturday. Periods of winds becoming light and variable at times
are possible as pressure gradients remain relatively weak.
Meanwhile, a trough/low complex moving across the OH/TN valley and
migrating towards the eastern seaboard will send a weak frontal
boundary southward, reaching northern Florida during the weekend.

The overall synoptic scenario will result in increasing moisture
from the south, as suggested by model soundings, with PWATs close to
2 inches during the short term. Also, veering winds with height
depict deep SW flow, which will help in bringing favorable
conditions for afternoon convection. Sea breezes should again provide
enhanced lifting for deep convection to develop, which will bring
the best chances of rain to inland and northern areas as they push
inland. Pops continue to modestly increase in latest solutions, with
the northern half of SoFlo now showing numerous/60-65 percent
coverage in many locations. There will be slightly deeper pool of
moisture available today courtesy of a low level disturbance near
the Bahamas, which gets advected westward into SoFlo. Main hazards
will be potential for lightning strikes, gusty winds, small hail,
and heavy rain with any storm that forms.

Temperatures remain warm, with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 80s
neat the coast, and low 90s inland.

.Long Term (Sunday through Thursday)...
The latest computer model guidance continues to show a weak trough
beginning to pull away from Florida and into the Atlantic on
Sunday. There will still be enough lower level moisture in place
to support shower and thunderstorm development along the east and
west coast sea breezes. The best chances on Sunday will be across
the interior sections where the sea breezes collide. Early next
week, both of the GFS and the ECMWF show a weak frontal boundary
moving southward into Northern and Central Florida as a trough
deepens off the Eastern Seaboard. This frontal boundary will
eventually stall out just to the north which will allow for an
increase in moisture to move over South Florida. This will once
again increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms for the
early and middle portions of the week. There is still uncertainty
in exactly where the heaviest rain will fall and where the
strongest thunderstorms will set up, however, the potential is
there for additional heavy rainfall over the region during this
time frame. High temperatures through the early portion of the
week will generally range from the mid to upper 80s across the
east coast to the lower 90s across the southwestern interior


A bermuda high is developing, which should keep marine conditions
mostly benign. The exception will be any thunderstorms that move
into the Gulf waters, which could bring locally hazardous marine
conditions through the weekend and into next week. Periodic
showers and thunderstorms may also affect the Atlantic waters at


VCSH remain at PBI through the next few hours as localized
convection continues to develop in the vicinity of the terminal.
For the rest of the sites, VFR should prevail through around 17Z
when sea breezes/onshore flow may bring periods of MVFR with
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminals. Winds remain from
the SE in the 5-10kt range, except APF where westerly flow will
develop after 17Z with sea breezes pushing inland.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach 86 75 85 74 / 40 30 40 10
Fort Lauderdale 86 77 85 76 / 40 30 30 20
Miami 86 76 86 75 / 40 40 30 20
Naples 89 73 87 74 / 50 30 40 10



Short Term...17/AR
Long Term...55/CWC
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