FXUS62 KMFL 240740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
340 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

...Hazardous marine and beach conditions in the wake of front...

A backdoor front has pushed across South Florida bringing rain,
gusty wind, and hazardous seas to close out the work week. The
main focus for rain today will be along the Atlantic coast and
waters. The mid level trough associated with the front will
amplify a bit over southern Florida and the straits of Florida
today. This could encourage some additional shower activity later
this morning, though the chances of thunderstorms are a bit lower
than they were on Thursday.

The front will continue to drift away from the region, allowing
surface high pressure to build back in on Saturday. Easterly flow
will continue to promote Atlantic shower activity that could
affect the east coast. To the northwest, the next frontal system
emerges into the central United States. A weak frontal boundary
associated with this system will push across the area on Sunday
into Monday. Not much impact is expected at this point with this
frontal passage as it does not carry as much moisture or
coincident mid and upper level support near our region as previous
fronts have.

To the east, a low pressure system skirts near the outer Bahamas
before turning into the open Atlantic by mid-week. Over the
eastern United States, the progressive pattern continues as
another frontal system pushes eastward across the eastern seaboard
with another dry boundary passage over Florida. The last frontal
system will emerge mid to late week over the central United States
and push eastward towards the end of the extended forecast
period. At this point, the impact to South Florida appears to be
the potential for a dry frontal passage. No cold snaps are
expected over the next week as none of these frontal passages have
much in terms of dry, cool air in their wakes.


Hazardous marine conditions have overspread across the waters off
South Florida. Gusty winds and elevated seas will make it
hazardous for small craft to operate in the Atlantic and Gulf
waters today, though the Gulf should slowly improve today. The
Atlantic will continue to be hazardous into the weekend. By the
end of the weekend, the potential improvement of the Atlantic
waters could see conditions fall below SCEC criteria.


Gusty easterly winds and heightened seas will contribute to a high
risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches through the
weekend. Combining these factors with the seasonal visitors to
local beaches, went ahead and extended the Rip Current Statement
for a high risk of rip currents through Sunday evening. It appears
at this point that the earliest the risk of rip currents will
diminish is sometime early next week.


Gusty easterly wind will continue to promote Atlantic showers that
will push ashore the east coast. Atlantic moisture should also
help keep relative humidity values from falling below 40 percent
today, even over interior portions of Southwest Florida.
Dispersion index values continue to be in the very good to
excellent range with the trend expected to continue into Saturday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 156 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017/


For the Atlantic coast terminals, east winds in the 15 to near 20
knot range with gusts to near 28 knots possible expected to
continue through the early morning hours and likely through 14z
Friday, with current guidance indicating it could continue
through at least 18z Friday. While shower activity across the
Atlantic waters has subsided, low level stratocumulus with
embedded light to moderate showers will impact the terminals
occasionally early this morning with brief MVFR conditions
possible with the heavier passing showers. For terminal KAPF,
easterly winds around 10 knots expected to continue early this
morning with stratocumulus ceilings around 3500 ft possible.


West Palm Beach 78 68 80 67 / 30 20 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 78 70 80 70 / 50 40 20 20
Miami 78 69 81 68 / 50 40 20 20
Naples 82 63 83 63 / 10 0 10 10


FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ630-650-651-

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ656-657-


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