FXUS62 KMFL 202246

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
646 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Shower coverage is a little further north than yesterday, with
passing showers still moving across much of the area south of
Okechoobee lake. POPS/WX will be adjusted to bring a little more
shower coverage to Hendry and Collier counties, but still keeping
better chances over the Miami metro areas and Homestead. Radar
data suggests rainfall should remain light to moderate tonight.
Winds are expected to gradually increase tonight and become breezy
Saturday. The rest of the forecast remains on track and no
further adjustments are required for the evening update.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017/

Short term (Tonight-Sunday)...model solutions depict a broad and
deep high pressure dominating the region, while the remnants of a
dissipating stationary front linger near the Florida Keys and
Cuba. Pressure gradients between these two features will bring
periods of breezy winds through the weekend. The brisk ENE flow
and remnant moisture will keep supporting passing showers across
south Florida, along with a few isolated thunderstorms each day
through Sunday.

Temperatures will remain near normals, except Sunday when many
interior and west coast areas may reach the upper 80s or even 90 in
the afternoon hours.

Long term (Sunday night-Thursday)...global models depict another
frontal passage on Monday and Tuesday, bringing showers and
increasing chances for thunderstorms. Some storms could become
strong. Timing between model solutions differs by about 6 hours,
but in general, the FROPA should take place from late Monday night
through Tuesday.

A cooler and drier air mass will filter into the region in the
wake of the FROPA by Wednesday, which should be the first time of
experiencing fall-like weather conditions across South Florida.
Temperatures could drop into the mid 50s across portions of the
southern peninsula Wednesday night into Thursday early morning.

Small Craft Advisory conditions will prevail over much of the
coastal waters through the weekend as ENE winds become stronger.
Conditions should improve early next week as wind speeds
gradually decrease.

Increasing ENE winds will combine with high astronomical tides to
bring water levels along the east coast to near or at coastal
flood criteria. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for
Palm Beach County through late Saturday. This may need to be
extended southward to include Broward and Miami-Dade later in the
weekend if conditions warrant.

The risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches is expected to
be high through the weekend. A Rip Current Statement is in effect
through late Saturday as well but will likely need to be extended
through the end of the day on Sunday.

AVIATION... Scattered showers spreading inland from Atlantic, and
this trend should continue through the TAF period. So, despite
VFR conditions prevailing, very temporary restrictions are
possible. East wind gusts to 25 KT possible until around sunset,
then gusts subside but sustained winds 15 KT still expected.

West Palm Beach 79 86 80 88 / 30 40 50 40
Fort Lauderdale 79 86 80 88 / 50 50 50 30
Miami 78 86 77 88 / 50 50 50 30
Naples 74 90 74 91 / 10 30 10 20


FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172-

Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for GMZ676.



Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page