FXUS62 KMFL 172321

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
621 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

Some periods of BKN040-060 can still happen tonight, but mainly
shallow cu clouds. NE winds become light and maybe variable at
times overnight with VFR prevailing. Winds increase into the 10 kt
range Sunday afternoon while turning more ENE, along with returning
cloud decks of BKN030-040.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018/

..Dry end to the weekend expected...

Surface high pressure will remain over the coming days with a
persistent northeasterly to easterly flow. Overnights, a light
northerly drainage flow is possible as well. This pattern will
keep things generally drier and cooler until around Tuesday when a
mid-level trough pushes across the region with additional cloud
cover and the potential for some moisture building back in that
could allow some low end rain chances to return to the forecast.

As mid-week rolls around, a mid-level disturbance over Texas will
push eastward across the Gulf of Mexico towards the peninsula of
Florida for the Thanksgiving holiday. Both the 12z GFS and 12z
ECMWF have similar depictions of this feature and timing of a
Thursday entry into the region. This will bring more cloud cover,
increasing rain chances, and the potential for thunderstorms.

After this, things begin to diverge with the GFS showing the
disturbance moving east into the Bahamas by Friday morning with
drier air moving into South Florida. On the other hand, the ECMWF
shows more remnant moisture and a more disrupted pattern aloft. As
the weekend kicks off, the ECMWF also tries to develop a surface
low or trough in the eastern Gulf that will traverse the peninsula
on its northeastward journey. Due to the divergence between
guidance solutions and the uncertainty that comes with the
extended forecast period, confidence on the weather forecast for
Thanksgiving and beyond is low.

A northeasterly to easterly flow will persist through the week. A
mid-level disturbance later in the week could bring increasing
rain and thunderstorms chances for the Thanksgiving holiday and

A persistent easterly component to the wind flow will keep an
elevated risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches into the
week. The current moderate risk of rip currents may have to be
monitored as it could easily develop into a high risk on Sunday or

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1244 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018/

AVIATION...BKN-OVC FL050-060 cloud deck hard to scatter out
this afternoon for KFXE southwards, so will keep prevailing
through at least this evening. Other sites will occasional BKN
cigs at same level. NE-ENE winds 8-10kts through remainder of
afternoon, diminishing with sunset, likely becoming NNE or NW
overnight for east coast. Repeat conditions for tomorrow with
winds more solidly ENE-E.

West Palm Beach 79 68 82 68 / 0 10 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 78 71 82 72 / 0 0 10 10
Miami 79 69 83 70 / 0 0 10 10
Naples 78 63 83 66 / 0 0 10 10




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