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FXUS62 KMFL 242353
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
753 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018


.AVIATION...
VCSH this evening for the northern Atlantic terminals, or even
VCTS at times. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail tonight
with winds becoming mainly light and variable late tonight. MVFR
cigs/vis are possible Friday late morning and through the
afternoon hours, with VCTS after 18z.

ESE wind 10 KT to 15 kt from Friday mid morning through the end
of the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 727 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018/

UPDATE...
The showers and thunderstorms that been occurring over the
western interior areas of South Florida this afternoon have
dissipated early this evening, as some showers have developed over
the Atlantic waters and push west into the east coast metro
areas. The short range models have continued to show showers and a
few thunderstorms developing over the east coast metro areas late
tonight into early Friday morning, due to land breeze interacting
with the easterly wind flow. Therefore, the pops have been lower
for the interior and west coast metro areas for tonight, while
keeping the pops in the scattered range late tonight for the east
coast metro areas. Rest of the forecast looks good at this time
and no other changes are planned at this time.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018/

.Watching Tropical Disturbance Working Northward into Gulf of Mexico...
.Potential for Heavy Rains/Flooding and Isolated Tornadoes This Weekend...
.Threat of Rip Currents increasing both Beaches this Weekend...

DISCUSSION...

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...
A trough of low pressure will remain over the Central Gulf of
Mexico as high pressure remains over the Western Atlantic waters
through the Memorial Day Weekend. This should allow for the
tropical disturbance over the Yucatan Channel to move slowly
northward into the Central or Eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, the
moisture associated with the circulation of the system will be
working into South Florida this Memorial Day weekend leading to
showers and even a few thunderstorms. Therefore, pops will remain
in the likely to categorical range over South Florida. Rainfall
could also be heavy at times leading to possible flooding
conditions. More on this in the hydro section below.

South Florida will also be in a favorable environment for
possible tornadoes this weekend as the winds will be turning in
height over South Florida, due to the tropical disturbance moving
northward through the Central or Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, will continue to mention this threat of isolated
tornadoes in the HWO outlook for South Florida for Saturday and
Sunday.

Please continue to monitor the latest outlooks from the National
Hurricane Center on the tropical disturbance through the Memorial
Day Weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
The long range models have the tropical disturbance moving into
the Southern Gulf Coast States middle of next week before moving
northeast into the Mid Atlantic States late next week. A trough of
low pressure extending from the tropical disturbance will be
moving slowly southward through the Florida Peninsula during this
time. This will keep the winds in a south to southwest direction
keeping the tropical moisture in place. Therefore, scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the
highest pops over the northern areas for the middle to end of next
week.

MARINE...
The winds will be southeast tonight into Friday with speeds
increasing from 10 to 15 knots tonight to breezy conditions by
Friday. The winds will then become more southerly this Memorial
Day Weekend, as the wind speeds will be increasing to at least 20
to 20 knots. The offshore Gulf waters could also approach Gale
Force conditions late Saturday into early Sunday. The Atlantic seas
will also be increasing from 1 to 3 feet tonight into Friday to
at least 7 feet by the second half the Memorial Day Weekend.
The Gulf seas will also increase from 2 feet or less tonight into
Friday to 7 to 11 feet by the second half of the Memorial Day
Weekend.

BEACH FORECAST...
The threat of Rip Currents will also be increasing along both
beaches of South Florida this Memorial Day Weekend, due to the
increase winds.

HYDROLOGY...
The short range models are showing the PWAT's values getting up
into the 2 to 2.4 inches this Memorial Day Weekend over South
Florida. This is in the 90 percentile to 100 percentile range of
the PWAT values for this time of year. This will lead to heavy
rainfall conditions along with possible flooding across South
Florida this Memorial Day Weekend, as the grounds are saturated
from the heavy rainfall last week into early this week. An Hydro
outlook will also be issued on the forecast rainfall amounts for
this Memorial Day weekend.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 73 83 74 80 / 50 50 40 70
Fort Lauderdale 75 82 76 80 / 50 50 50 80
Miami 74 83 75 81 / 50 50 60 80
Naples 72 83 73 81 / 20 70 80 90

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&




AVIATION...17/AR




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