FXUS62 KMFL 271314 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
914 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017
The fog that been occurring over the interior and west coast metro
areas has burned off this morning leaving only some low level
clouds. These low cloud should burn off through the morning hours.
Therefore, the fog wording will be remove from the zones in the
morning update for the interior and west coast metro areas.
High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will build into the
Florida Peninsula tonight into Friday. This will allow for the
wind flow to swing from a southerly direction this afternoon to a
easterly direction tonight into Friday. Both the east and west
coast sea breezes will also develop and push inland today focusing
any showers over the interior areas this afternoon. However, the
coverage will be few and far this afternoon, as drier air has
worked into the area from the south. Therefore, there will only be
silent 10 percent pops over the interior areas for this afternoon
with less than 10 percent over the metro areas.
The winds will remain southeast at 10 to 15 knots over the
Atlantic waters today leading to a moderate risk of rip currents
along the east coast beaches of South Florida. Rest of South
Florida waters will see winds around 10 knots mainly from the
Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 737 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017/
Easterly winds around 10 mph will increase to around 15 mph over
the east coast taf sites today, as the ceiling and vis will remain
in the VFR conditions. KAPF taf site will see light southeast
winds this morning before swinging to an westerly direction this
afternoon around 10 mph. There could still be some fog around at
KAPF taf site through 13Z with vis and ceiling dropping down into
IFR conditions. After 13Z today the ceiling and vis should be back
into VFR conditions. The weather will also remain dry over all of
South Florida taf sites today.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017/
Convection remains just beyond the coastal waters over the western
Bahamas this morning. Outflow boundaries from this convection
could reach towards South Florida today, promoting the potential
for some showers. Otherwise, it is expected to be a fairly warm
day with the southeasterly flow push inland from the Atlantic and
a Gulf sea breeze developing and pushing inland this afternoon.
Expect most of the rain chances to be confined along the east
coast and over the Atlantic waters.
Deep layered high pressure builds in on Friday, promoting a drier
day with sunshine and summer-like warmth to kick off the weekend.
The next frontal system will progress across the central United
States late in the weekend and makes its way towards the Sunshine
State Monday into Tuesday. There is some difference in timing
between different global guidance. Went ahead and broad-brushed
much of next week's forecast due to this uncertainty in timing.
The front will have plenty of moisture ahead of it to promote
showers and potentially thunderstorms. As of right now, the front
will also pack the ability to have some showers and thunderstorms
along with it.
As the first front exits mid to late next week, the next system
emerges over the region. This could too pack a bit of a punch and
the forecast continues to carry showers and some thunderstorms
through the end of the forecast period. This is still quite a bit
away being late in the extended...so confidence is low and the
different models are providing slightly different solutions as
well. It will be worth monitoring the forecast trend with these
frontal systems over the next week or so.
Winds and seas should remain below headline criteria heading into
the weekend. Some showers could be possible today with those
chances dropping for tomorrow. During the weekend, the approaching
frontal system will allow winds and seas to build which could
introduce headlines later in the weekend for mariners.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017/
For the east coast TAF sites, light southeast winds will persist
through mid morning. A sct/bkn low cloud deck continues to push
ashore from the Atlantic, giving periodic ceilings around 1500 ft
agl to MIA and OPF. Expect these clouds to shift northward over
the next several hours. South southeast winds will increase aft
27/1400Z, generally 12-15 KT, then decrease back to around 10 KT
aft 28/0000Z. A gulf sea breezy may develop, bringing southwest
winds to KAPF during the afternoon. Otherwise, expect sct low
clouds with bases around 3500 ft agl and VFR conds to prevail
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 89 76 88 77 / 10 10 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 88 78 88 78 / 10 10 10 10
Miami 89 77 90 77 / 10 10 10 10
Naples 88 74 92 73 / 10 10 10 0
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