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FXUS62 KMHX 181933
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
333 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area late this afternoon and
early this evening. High pressure will build in from the
northwest Tuesday and Wednesday while an area of low pressure
moves near the coast late Wednesday and Wednesday night,
followed by a cold front late Thursday. High pressure will build
into the area late week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Not much change from the previous
forecast. Latest surface analysis has a cold front easing past
Raleigh this afternoon with weak low pressure now well off the
SE coast. High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to
weaken and is forecast to slide east tonight as the cold front
migrates in from the NW late this afternoon and evening. Aloft,
both mesoanalysis and water vapor imagery show a shortwave
rotating into the Appalachians. This feature will be a focus for
the potential of a brief period of showers, mainly for the
northeastern tier of counties and the Outer Banks north of
Hatteras. Forecast soundings indicate a fairly dry sub-cloud
layer and have doubts that an appreciable amount of precip won't
evaporate before reaching the ground, and have thus not made
any changes to PoPs beyond low chance.

Otherwise, skies quickly clear out as the shortwave and surface
front push offshore with winds veering NW and then N at around
5-10 knots inland, 10-20 knots along the sounds and Outer Banks.
Thus, no longer expecting any real threat for fog overnight.
Given the expected winds overnight nudged lows a degree or two
higher, but still forecasting widespread mid to upper 30s, low
to mid 40s Outer Banks.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Mon...High pressure builds back in behind the
departing front, which is forecast to stall offshore Tuesday.
With a tightening pressure gradient, forecasting winds to
increase out of the NE at 10-15 knots and 15-20 knots along the
sounds and Outer Banks with some higher gusts possible. Mostly
sunny NW to partly cloudy SE with front lingering offshore, but
otherwise a dry Tuesday in store.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Broad upper troughing will reside over the
eastern United States through the work week. Bulk of mdls now
show low pressure tracking closer to the coast Wed night into
Thu with better cvrg of rain. High pressure will build over the
area this weekend bringing dry wx and a warming trend.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal mid week,
warming to near or a bit above normal late week and over the
weekend.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...A broad upper trough will
continue across the eastern CONUS this period with WNW flow
aloft across the Carolinas and high pressure centered across the
mid-Atlantic states into the South. A front will be stalled
well offshore while an area of low pressure lifts ENE along the
front. Moisture will remain offshore thru mid day Wed then begin
to spread onshore late with small chc of shra cst. Gradients
will remain pinched between the high to the north and the low
tracking along the stalled front offshore bringing windy
conditions along the coast Tue night, then gradients begin to
relax Wed as the surface high migrates over the area ahead of a
shortwave trough and surface front. Temps will be a few degrees
below normal with highs upper 50s to lower 60s Wed. Areas of
frost possible well inland Tue night with lows in the mid 30s.
Lows will be around 40 along the coast.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...A robust upper trough
and attendant cold front will approach the area Wed night and Thu
and move across the area Thu night. An area of low pressure
will develop along the stalled boundary offshore as upper level
dynamics improves with the left exit region of the upper jet
moving over the area. Trend in 12Z mdls is for a closer track of
the low to cst resulting in better chcs of rain. Have increased
pops to lower chc inland to high chc/likely cst later Wed night
into first part of Thu. The low moves away from the area Thu
afternoon but a chance showers continues into the afternoon NE
sections with the approach of the upper trough. Temps continue
to gradually moderate and are expected to be near normal Thu
with highs in the low/mid 60s inland to around 60 along the
coast. Breeze and clouds will result in lows ranging from upr
30s inland to low/mid 40s beaches Wed night. Temps similar to
slightly warmer Thu night with lows in the low to mid 40s.

Friday through Monday...The upper trough pushes offshore Fri
with height rises through the weekend with an upper ridge and
surface high pressure becoming centered over the area Sun that
will drift offshore Mon. Dry conditions continue with a gradual
warming trend. Highs expected in the low to mid 60s inland to
mid 50s coast Fri and Saturday, with a few upper 60s possible
southern sections Sat. Temps expected to warm into the upper 60s
to lower 70s inland to low to mid 60s coast Sunday. Some mid 70s
poss Mon inland with SW flow on backside of high.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Tuesday/...
As of 305 PM Mon...Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the
TAF period. A weak cold front will move through the terminals
late afternoon and evening, with winds becoming northerly behind
the front. Some mid clouds will stream into the area this
afternoon and evening, then clearing tonight - an isolated
shower is possible at PGV but chances too low to mention in TAF.
Winds stay N/NE at 5-10 knots at all sites into tomorrow
morning increasing to 10-15 knots with some higher gusts
possible, particularly at ISO and PGV.


Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Pred VFR conditions expected through Wed
as high pres extends SW across the area keeping deeper moisture
offshore. Winds will be a bit gusty closer to the coast Tue
night. As low pres lifts NE near or just off the cst expect shra
to spread onshore Wed night into Thu...for now better rain chc
look to be near cst, however some lower cigs and vsbys could
occur inland at times. Dry weather returns Thu night into the
weekend with VFR dominating.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tue/...
As of 310 PM Mon...Current obs showing seas 2-4 feet with NE
winds at around 10 knots this afternoon. High pressure will
continue to weaken this afternoon and tonight as a weak cold
front approaches the waters, approaching the region late this
afternoon into the evening. Conditions deteriorate tonight with
increasing gradient. Initial NE winds at around 10 knots rapidly
increase to 20-25 knots for outer waters and the Pamlico Sound
with gale force gusts possible for outer cntrl waters. Waves
increase to 4-6 feet for all waters with waves reaching 6-8 feet
for outer nrn and cntrl waters. Waves 2-3 feet in sounds. Winds
increase 25 to 35 Tue as gradient tightens between high to the
N and Low developing to the S. Seas will build 6 to 10 ft
highest outer central and srn wtrs. Have raised a Gale Warning
for central and srn wtrs beginning Tue morn.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Gradients across the waters remain tight
Tue night into early Wed with high pressure centered to the N
and E and low pres developing on front offshore. Marginal gales
expected to cont central and srn wtrs Tue night with winds
lighter for nrn wtrs and sounds. Wind diminish to 10 to 20 kt
later Wed as high pres weakens and moves E. Very low confidence
on wind dir/speed Wed night and Thu as mdls differ on track and
intensity of low lifting NE near cst. For now have sub SCA winds
with dir more onshore Wed night becoming WNW Thu. NW winds
increase 15 to 25 kts Thu night into Fri on backside of
departing low. WNW winds diminish Sat as high pres builds in
from the NW.

Seas reach 8 to 11 ft outer central and srn wtrs Tue night. Seas
slowly subside to 5 to 8 ft Wed. As mentioned above confidence
low for seas Thu with uncertainty on low track...for now have
seas in the 4 to 6 foot range. Seas cont 4 to 6 ft Fri with
gusty NW winds and residual swell. As winds diminish Sat seas
will grad drop to 2 to 4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
Wednesday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
Tuesday for AMZ130-131.
Gale Warning from 10 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
Gale Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for
AMZ156-158.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
Wednesday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/MS
MARINE...RF/MS
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