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FXUS62 KMHX 060213
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1013 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will then approach from the west tonight and
Saturday, crossing the area early Sunday. High pressure returns
early next week. Another cold front will impact the area late
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 1010 PM Friday...A few scattered thunderstorms will move
through the coastal plain over the next couple hours, but
otherwise expecting a mostly dry first half of the night. After
midnight a shortwave trough will move overhead, and spark some
additional activity overnight and into tomorrow morning. Should
be another mild night with lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Fri...The shortwave trough pushes offshore Sat
morning with an additional vort energy moving through in the
afternoon. A few lingering showers possible in the morning will
give way to mainly sea-breeze convection during the afternoon
as heights fall with the aforementioned vort energy. With
northerly steering flow aloft expect convection to be pinned
closer to the Crystal Coast and kept highest PoPs in this
region. Despite a healthy amount of instability (1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE), shear is very weak and don't expect any organized
severe threat.

Another round of showers and possibility a thunderstorm or two
could be forced as the surface cold front pushes south across
the region Saturday night into early Sunday morning. A thin
ribbon of instability will remain ahead of the front and shear
will gradually increase as the vort max approaches, although
bulk shear should still be 20 kt or less. Therefore, if there is
any potential for a stronger storm it would be during the
overnight period. It will remain quite warm with highs will be
around 90 inland to mid 80s coast with lows around 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Friday...Upper vort energy pushing through the
region into Sunday morning will help push a cold front through
the region to start the new week, with upper level ridging
aiding in seasonable weather for the first half of the week
before more another front approaches at week's end.

Sunday through Thursday...Cold front will cross Sun morning
followed by high pressure building in from the NW Sunday into
Tuesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF still show some potential for
shower/tsra lingering south of Highway 264 Sunday and retained
small pops these areas. Drier air will spread in behind the
front, with drier, slightly cooler/less humid conditions through
early next week with highs in the 80s through Wed. Plenty of
moisture will pool along the front courtesy of TC Cristobal,
forecast to impact the Gulf Coast early next week.

Next round of precipitation likely late next week as remnants of
Cristobal are absorbed by an upper trough over the central U.S
and surface front slowly encroaches from the west. Typical
timing discrepancies among guidance precludes anything beyond a
low chance PoP mention at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tomorrow Evening/...
As of 645 PM Fri...VFR conditions expected tonight, with
ceilings hovering just above MVFR limits through early tomorrow
morning. Then it looks like there will be a period of MVFR
ceilings (~2500 ft) from around sunrise through early
afternoon, before ceiling levels rise above 3000 ft. Could see
some scattered showers or a thunderstorm overnight, and then
additional thunderstorm development is expected tomorrow
afternoon, with best chances along the US 17 corridor.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 325 AM Fri...Another round of showers and storms possible
overnight Saturday with frontal passage. Return to predominant
VFR conditions Sunday through Wednesday with high pressure
building in.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Saturday/...
As of 415 PM Fri...High pressure will remain offshore with a
front approaching from the NW toward the end of the period. S
winds around 15-20 kt becomes SW around 10-20 kt overnight,
strongest across the southern/central coastal waters, with seas
around 2-4 ft northern waters and 4-6 ft central/southern
waters. Gradients tighten on Saturday, especially across the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet where winds expected to
increase to 20-25 kt and seas building to 5-8 ft.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...SW winds increase to 20-25 kt late Saturday
night for southern and central waters ahead of an approaching
cold front. SCA conditions probable Saturday night into Sunday
morning with gusts 25-30 kt and seas reaching 6-7 feet for
cntrl/srn waters. Winds veer NE behind the front at 10-15 kt,
then veering SE by Tuesday night. Seas fall below 6 feet by
Sunday morning and remain 2-4 ft through the remainder of the
period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156-
158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...SK/MS
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