FXUS62 KMHX 180830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

A weak cold front will push across the area late today. A much
stronger cold front will approach from the west Saturday and
move through Sunday. Arctic high pressure will build in from the
west early next week. Another cold front will impact the area
mid to late next week.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Other than some early morning fog today,
skies will be slowly clearing with slightly above climo highs
with readings in the 55-60 degree range most areas. The flow
aloft will be zonal with weak sfc high building into the region.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Relatively mild temps tonight as weak high
pres overhead. Weak back door cold front will move through this
evening, but this will be mainly unnoticeable as winds will be
mainly calm. Another night of patchy fog possible again as bndry
layer moisture is rather high, though inc clouds from next
system should prevent much in the way of dense fog. Lows tonight
generally 35-40 degrees.


As of 320 AM Friday...Mild temperatures are expected through
Sunday, with wet weather Saturday night into Sunday. Then it
will turn sharply colder Sunday night and Monday as the coldest
air to date of this winter barrels into the area behind a strong
cold front. Another storm system will affect the region
Wednesday- Thursday but timing differences continue.

Saturday through Monday...Phasing streams will lead to inland
cyclogenesis over the southern plains today (Friday) with the
low racing northeast into the mid Atlantic Sat night and along
the New England coast Sunday. This low will push a strong cold
front through our area Sunday. The models have trended a little
faster with the front now pushing it off the NC coast by noon.
The forecast area will get into warm sector ahead of the front
on Saturday with highs upper 50s to low 60s, though the models
cont to point to mainly dry conditions through Sat evening they
are still indicating the threat for a few showers through the
day Sat. Will remain warm early Sunday just ahead of the front
with highs mainly 60 to 65 then temperatures should plummet
through the 40s in the afternoon in the cold NW flow behind the
front. Non diurnal temp curve expected Sat night, with temps and
dewpoints increasing into Sunday morning. Mdls still showing
some marginal sfc based instab ahead of the front, so added an
isolated tstm mention after 09z Sunday morning mainly due to the
strong forcing vicinity of the front. With guidance in pretty
good agreement on this system will continue the categorical PoPs
for all areas late Sat night and early Sunday with good band of
shra expected along and ahead of front. CAA advection is
extreme late Sunday/Sunday evening and may very briefly see a no
impact snow shower or flurry with residual moisture Sunday

Gusty SW winds expected ahead of the front Sat night into early
Sunday, becoming NW behind the front Sunday afternoon. Wind
gusts 35-45 mph expected along the Outer Banks, peaking Sun
evening and Sun night. Minor water level rises will be possible
for the soundside of the Outer Banks given the strong winds and
high astronomical tides.

Very cold air will surge in Sunday night and cont thru Mon
night. Lows Sun night will drop into the upper teens inland to
the upr 20s central/srn beaches. Temps Monday will be bitterly
cold with highs only be in the low/mid 30s with many areas
staying below freezing. Gusty NW winds Sunday night and Mon will
produce wind chill temps in the teens late Sun night into early
Mon. Cool high pressure remains in control through Mon night
with lows in the upper teens and 20s. Mid level heights increase
behind the departing trough on Tuesday with forecast highs in
the mid 40s most spots.

Wednesday through Thursday...The GFS and ECMWF are both
developing another storm system with similar genesis to the
previous two approaching the Carolinas mid to late week,
although some model timing differences continue. Regardless,
southerly low level flow combined with continued ridging aloft
should help highs climb back into the upper 50s to around 60
Wed. Will continue chance pops Wed and Thu.


Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 1 AM Fri...Some MVFR cigs and vsbys may develop late
tonight and early Friday morning behind the rain that has moved
east of the terminals. There is the potential for some IFR Fri
morning for some sites, and have included brief pd of IFR vsbys
in the fcst. Any fog should lift by 14Z Friday morning becoming
VFR rest of the day and into the evening.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 320 AM Friday...Pred VFR conditions expected Friday night
into Saturday, though some patchy fog will be possible Sat
morning. High confidence in sub- VFR conditions Sat night and
Sunday as a strong cold front moves through the area from the
west with widespread showers. Gusty SW winds early Sunday will
shift to the NW in the afternoon and remain gusty as intense
cold advection develops behind cold front Sunday night into Mon.
Pred VFR conditions expected to return Sunday evening and
continue through Tuesday.


Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Light SW winds for this afternoon will veer
to the N and NE tonight as weak back door cold front pushes
through. Speeds will remain below 15 kt however, so fairly
benign conditions on the waters with seas only 1-3 ft.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 320 AM Friday...High pres continues to slide offshore Sat
with light E-NE winds early becoming S-SE 10 to 15 kt by
evening. Seas mainly 2 to 3 feet Sat. Strong SCA conditions to
low end Gales expected to develop Sat night into Sun night as
SW winds increase to 20 to 30 kts and gusty ahead of a strong
cold front with some gale force gusts. Winds will begin to shift
to NW Sun afternoon as the front crosses with gale force NW
winds likely most waters Sun afternoon and Sunday night as
intense cold air advection moves in behind front. Seas will
build 10 to 14 feet Sunday in the gusty winds. Winds and seas
will gradually subside late Monday and Monday night. Waves
subside late Mon to 2 to 4 feet srn waters but remain elevated
AOA 6 ft for the cntrl and nrn waters through early Tue morning
as winds slowly decrease to 15 to 20 kts srn waters and 20 to 25
knots cntrl and nrn waters. Northerly winds 10-15 kt early Tue
becoming more E/NE 10 kt or less.




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