FXUS62 KMHX 050203
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
903 PM EST THU DEC 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE BRINGING A THREAT OF RAIN
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE TRIANGLE AT 02Z AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA 06-09Z.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
04Z. TRENDS IN RADAR INDICATE BEST COVERAGE IN SHOWERS OCCURRING
NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA THUS ONLY EXPECTING SPRINKLES ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA LATE CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S SO NO TEMPERATURE CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LATER RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND GFS LOOKING A BIT WETTER IN THE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND
STALL...NUMEROUS WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RAIN PROSPECTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
WHERE WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL
TAPER POPS BACK TO LOW CHC RANGE FURTHER INLAND. WITH NE FLOW...DO
NOT SEE A HUGE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON FRIDAY WITH MAXES ONLY
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE DEEPER COLD AIR ARRIVES INLAND SO
ANTICIPATE NO PRECIP TYPE PROBLEMS AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE OUTER BANKS BY EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST AND A SMALL CHC OVER FAR NRN AREAS LATER
IN THE DAY AS FAST MOVING UPPER SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS ALL BUILDS UP TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION. GFS SHOWS A SUB 990 MB LOW CROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR PSBL SVR WX...BUT
STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT. WILL HAVE HI
CHC POPS FOR NOW DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING MAINLY HIGH BASED 5-7K FT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO ONLY EXPECTING A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGH 12Z. SWLY FLOW WITH THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS
RTES THIS EVENING AS A THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OFFSHORE FRI WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST.
RETURN FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE EARLY FRI WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL
RUNS DELAYING THE ONSET OF PCPN UNTIL LATE FRI AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS YET.

MOIST NELY FLOW WILL PERSIST FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH MID DAY SAT WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS DOMINATING. CIGS IMPROVE SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LIFT
NE OF THE REGION. ANOTHER MAINLY DRY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT
EVENING WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD HIGH
PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN WITH
GUSTY NWLY WINDS. HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION MON
THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE TUE AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
HAD TO ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO PUT OUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO W 20-25 KT AND SEAS 5
TO 7 FT. WINDS WILL DECREASE THERE BEHIND THE FRONT TO NW 15-20
KT/10-15 KT. ELSEWHERE PREFRONTAL WEST WINDS AT 10-15 KT WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AT 15-20 KT THROUGHOUT WHICH WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO
4-6 NORTH OF LOOKOUT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRI
BRINGING INCREASED NELY FLOW FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING UP
TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 7 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND WILL ISSUE A SCA
HERE FOR THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE SOUNDS
AND WATERS S OF LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE
LOW LIFTS NE OF THE REGION SAT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND DRY SFC FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG CAA
COMMENCES LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE W AND SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE FROM LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING. BETTER BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON AS HIGH PRES
SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
OFFSHORE TUE AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AFFECTING THE REGION MID WEEK. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN DEVELOPING GALE FORCE OR STRONGER CONDITIONS WED OR THU.
WAVE WATCH GENERALLY ACCEPTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/JME
NEAR TERM...SJ
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK



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