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FXUS62 KMHX 201951
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
351 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Major flooding still on going from the effects of Florence but
otherwise quiet weather is expected through the early portion of
the weekend. A slow moving frontal system will bring a return
of some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms late Sunday
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM...Partly skies and dry conditions persisted across
eastern NC as high pressure centered off the Delmarva extended
south across the mid Atlantic. The high pressure will remain in
control overnight keeping conditions dry, however, some fog
could be a concern in areas due to the wet soils, flooding and
cool temps. Expect boundary layer winds to decouple overnight
and temps should drop below crossover temps. Lows are forecast
to get to the low to mid 60s with crossover temps around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Friday the high moves a little offshore, but remains in
control most of the day. Winds will be veering from the
northeast to the east and eventually southeast late in the day.
High should be similar to today or a degree or two warmer
generally in the mid 80s with some upper 80s inland. Overnight
lows Fri night should be in the upper 60s to low 70s and
continues dry with some patchy fog possible.

The beginning of the weekend will be relatively quiet as broad
upper level ridging starts to break down and drift offshore.
Expect a frontal system to stall out just to the north and west
across central NC and VA. Models have slowed the progression of
the front and decreased coverage of showers late Saturday into
Sunday. Moisture will push in from the south and southeast
increasing pwats back above 1.5. Expect some isolated shower
activity late Saturday with a few more showers (widely
scattered) possible on Sunday. Overall rainfall amounts should
remain rather limited to the areas of showers activity and
generally a quarter of an inch or less.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At this time, it appears that a stalled frontal boundary will
remain predominantly across W NC into VA, keeping the bulk of
the strongest lift to the W. However, the influx of further
tropical moisture and weak troughing aloft could lead to a few
showers and thunderstorms Mon and Tue as diurnal conditions
will promote destabilization during the afternoon, with sfc
based CAPE values exceeding 1500j/kg.

By mid week, will need to monitor progress of a very weak, non-
tropical Atlantic wave, currently situated about 150 miles N of
Bermuda as of the time of this writing. Conditions will remain
sheared for much of its life-cycle, but progs carry it slowly
SW, tapping more tropical moisture and then sliding it back
toward the coast by the middle of the week. Some ensemble
guidance shows PWATs once again potentially exceeding 2.00 in,
which could introduce the risk for localized heavy rain. Still
plenty of uncertainty here, but something to watch.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short term /through Thursday night/...
High confidence overall. scattered to broken CU will give way
to some Patchy MVFR/IFR fog overnight especially inland.
Scattered CU will redevelop again by late morning but remain VFR
through the day. Light winds increase somewhat during the day
out of the E-NE becoming SE late in the day.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
Mainly VFR conditions into Saturday. The risk for some SCT
SHRA/TSRA Sun-Tue with localized MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 300 PM Thursday... Dry weather through the rest of the
night. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue overnight with
10 to 15 kt NE flow with gusts to 25 and 4 to 6 ft seas over
coastal waters from Ocracoke Inlet north out 20 nautical miles.
Sub-SCA conditions elsewhere.

Long Term /Fri through Sun/...
As of 300 PM Thursday... Light winds expected Friday and
Saturday with winds veering from onshore to offshore Friday
into Saturday generally less than 10 kts and seas generally 2 to
4 feet. Similar sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions into Sun.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 300 PM Thursday... Major Flooding continues for inland
rivers. Heed all local law enforcement instructions and do not
drive into flooded roadways.

Areal and River Flood Warnings continue farther inland and
south. Warnings here will persist as water upstream continues
to flow through rivers across eastern NC. The Neuse, Trent and
Cape Fear rivers will likely take the longest to fully
recede...with forecasts remaining well above flood stage through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM Thursday... High rip risk now in effect through
Friday for northern beaches; Moderate rip risk elsewhere. Minor
flooding is still occurring at Belhaven on the Pungo River. With
the significant amount of fresh water in area basins and waters
running high due to the flooding from Florence, minor coastal
flooding will be possible through at least this evening along
near-shore roads and low lying areas.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for NCZ103.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ080-081-
094.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JO
NEAR TERM...JO
SHORT TERM...JO
LONG TERM...MD
AVIATION...JO/MD
MARINE...MS
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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