FXUS62 KMHX 251656
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1256 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017
A cold front will move off the coast this morning. High
pressure will pass to the south Friday and Saturday. A frontal
boundary will drop in from the north Saturday night and become
stationary through Tuesday morning, when it will move off the
coast. Another front will move in Wednesday and become
stationary across the area.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1255 pm Thu...No changes to the near term.
Prev Dis...Latest sfc analysis is showing the cold front off
the NC coast with a sfc trough over the central NC. A few
showers are developing ahead of the sfc trough this morning and
have added PoPs to the forecast for the morning hours.
Thereafter, the mid-upper low's vort max; becoming negative
tilted this afternoon as it moves across Eastern NC. Even
though, dewpoints will slightly drop into the upper 50s to
around 60s behind the front, but with strong quasi- geostrophic
forcing associated with the upper low/trough and mid levels
becoming very cold (-20 to -15 degree C at 500mb) enough to
cause steep lapse rates aloft to trigger scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. SPC keeps the region in a Marginal
Risk for severe storms, though parameters looks less impressive
than Wed with drier air in place. Still cannot rule out an
isolated strong storm developing with gusty winds and hail.
Breezy gradient winds develop in the afternoon, with gusts 20-30
mph. Low level thickness values support highs in the upper 70s
to around 80 degrees.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 330 am Thu...Surface/upper low along New England coast
lifts northeast with surface ridge building into the forecast
area from the southeast with cooler/drier air. Lows tonight
will range in the upper 50s along the coastal plain to mid/upper
60s south coast and Outer Banks.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 am Thu...Friday will be a nice end to the week with a
return to drier weather with high pressure in control. With a
good amount of sunshine it will be much warmer than the past few
days with highs into the 80s. We turn hot this weekend as 850
MB temps climb into the upper teens, which wil result in highs
near 90 inland both days. In fact the 0Z GFS shows 850 temps
spiking to around +21/22C at 18Z Sunday, which if it verifies
will easily push highs into the lower 90s inland. A disturbance
in the northwest flow aloft Saturday night into Sunday is still
enough for a 30% to 50% chance of storms, with the highest
chances across the far north and northwest. Monday into most of
next week looks unsettled as a cold front moves into our area
and stalls out. Right now the best shot at showers/storms would
be Monday night into Tuesday. Enough run to run differences have
existed with the movement of this front so we really can't rule
out shower chances as early as Monday. Late in the week the
boundary is close enough across the southern part of our area to
maintain at least a 30% chance each day. With clouds and
slightly cooler temps aloft, highs will mainly be in the 80s.
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/
As of 1255 pm Thu...High confidence of VFR conditions will
persist through most of the TAF period. Cold front has pushed
off the coast this morning...leading to scattered clouds around
5kft. Expect scattered clouds through most of the day with BKN
ceiling as an mid-upper level vort max crosses Eastern NC. This
will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few of
which could be severe with gusty winds and hail. SW winds 10-15
knots with gusty winds up to 25 knots. Any convection will end
early this evening with skies becoming clear late tonight. Winds
will diminish to around 10 knots and continue through the
overnight. VFR conditions will continue Friday with SW winds
around 10 knots gusting to 20 knots.
Long Term /Fri through Mon/
As of 330 am Thu...VFR Friday and Saturday. Brief Sub VFR
conditions possible Saturday night through Tuesday in scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day.
Short Term /through tonight/
As of 1255 am Thu...No changes to the marine forecast. Latest
buoy obs are showing SW winds 15-20 with gusts up to 30 knots.
Seas are 6-11 ft south of Cape Hatteras with the highest over
the southern waters, meanwhile around 4 ft north of Hatteras.
The cold front has pushed off the coast this morning, but winds
will remain southwest and increase 20-30 knots with occasional
gusts near gale force as the pressure gradient tightens. Will
monitor winds and make adjustments if winds increase to gale
force. Seas will be 7 to 11 ft south of Oregon Inlet and 4 to 6
ft north. No change to current small craft advisories now in
Long Term /Fri through Mon/
As of 330 am Thu...Improving boating conditions over the waters
will be the general rule in the long term forecast, with good
boating conditions still expected this weekend and especially
for Memorial Day Monday.
On Friday west winds will still be in the 15-25 knot range early in
the day, with seas starting out 5 to 8 feet. This will be enough to
continue small craft advisories all waters first thing in the
morning. Improvement over the sounds is expected by midday but while
winds diminish to under 20 kts by Friday afternoon, seas will remain
5 to 7 feet over the coastal waters with small craft conditions
likely through sunset.
This weekend winds will back toward the southwest and be generally
10 to 20 knots with seas 2 to 4 feet. Wavewatch guidance still
suggest some 5 to 6 foot seas the outer waters off Cape Hatteras but
wind speeds do not support these heights and will trim back from
model guidance. By Monday and Tuesday winds will diminish even more
and remain out of the southwest at 10 to 15. With the continued
drop in wind speed waves will average around 3 feet.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136-
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for AMZ130-131-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.
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