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FXUS62 KMHX 250740
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
340 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will remain stalled offshore into Monday. Low
pressure will lift northeast well offshore of the southeast
coast early this week. Another cold front will approach the area
mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Latest analysis shows front stalled off the
SE coast, with 1029 mb high pressure centered over the NE US
extending into the Mid-Atlantic and SE US, resulting in a
CAD/wedge pattern across the Carolinas. Latest radar imagery
shows area of blossoming light showers near the Albemarle Sound
and northern OBX early this morning. The upper level trough will
continue to shift eastward today as drier air continues to
filter into the mid and upper levels. Still some low level
moisture which could support isolated to widely scattered
showers, best chances along the coast during the first part of
the day. Clouds may be tough to scour out until late in the day
from NW to SE with CAD pattern. Temps will continue to be
pleasant and comfortable for August standards. Low level
thickness values and NE winds support highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s, and dewpoints generally 65-70 deg. Breezy along the
coast today, with NE wind gusts 25-30 mph, as gradient tightens
between high to the north and front to the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sun...High pressure to the north will continue to
wedge into the area with sfc front stalled off the coast. Drier
air continues to filter in, and while could see a few showers
along the coast expect most of the area to remain dry. Pleasant
temps with lows dropping into the low/mid 60s inland and upper
60s to low 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 AM Sun...A drier conditions start at the beginning of
the work-week, then a cold front will approach the area from
the west midweek and push through Thursday resulting in showers
and thunderstorms. Afterward, high pressure builds in leading to
drier weather.

Monday through Wednesday...A weak mid/upper level ridging will
be placed over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while a
shortwave trough is over the MS/TN/OH Valley. At the sfc,
conditions will be drier as high pressure continues to wedge
into the Carolinas from the north, while a potential tropical
system to the SE of ENC coast. The previous runs of the ECWMF
have been consistent with the potential tropical system to
remain well offshore, while the CMC, UKMET, and spaghetti models
continues to support the ECWMF output. Most of the impacts will
be related to the water in the form of rough surf and strong
rip currents.

The previous mentioned shortwave trough weakens or somewhat gets
absorbed with a broad trough along the northern stream as it approaches
the Carolinas Tuesday. Remaining energy from the shortwave is
forecasted to trigger some showers Tuesday afternoon and showers
and thunderstorms for Wednesday. Expect highs 80-85 degree
range on Monday, then temps will moderate a bit more into the
mid to possibly some upper 80s by Wednesday. Overnight lows will
range in the upper 60s to low 70s inland and mid 70's along the
Outer Banks.

Thursday through Saturday...Models diverge at this point with
the timing of the cold front and beyond. The ECMWF continues to
be consistent with the past few runs with the front pushing
through ENC by Thursday morning, while the GFS is running AOA
24-hours behind. Afterward there is some indication the frontal
boundary lifts north or becomes hung up near the coast, and some
showers develop with increasing fgen, so will keep slight to
chance PoPs. Trended closer with the ECMWF due to it's
consistency. Expect highs in the mid/upper 80s and lows in the
mid/upr 60s interior to low 70s coast.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Tough forecast early this morning, with
potential for IFR ceilings. Bulk of guidance keeps cigs in the
MVFR range, however some periods of IFR possible espcly across
the southern terminals between 9-12z. Cigs shld slowly lift and
eventually begin to sct out as drier air works in with VFR
expected in the aftn.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 340 AM Sun...A quasi-stationary boundary will well south
of the area through midweek...leading to a drier trends. Still
can see occasional sub-VFR in regards to lower ceilings due to
lingering low level moisture. An cold front will approach the
area Wednesday leading to additional showers and thunderstorms.
Cold front is expected to push through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 240 AM Sun...SCA conditions developing quickly across the
waters early this morning. Latest buoy obs indicate NNE/NE
winds 15-20 kt with a few gusts to 25 kt, and seas 5-8 ft north
of Hatteras and 3-5 ft south. Moderate to strong NE winds and
rough seas expected today and tonight. Adjusted SCA timing,
starting earlier this morning. SCAs continue for the coastal
waters, sounds and Neuse/Bay Rivers. The gradient will
strengthen today between high pressure to the north and front to
the south. NE winds increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt
and seas building to 5-9 ft, highest north of Hatteras. Strong
NE winds will continue tonight with seas remaining above 6 ft.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 340 AM Sun...Wind gradient will relax, though seas will
remain elevated due to the potential tropical system bringing
higher seas and swell. Expected NE winds 15-20 knots Monday,
becoming 10-15 Tuesday, while seas will be 4-6 ft across all
coastal waters and gradually subsiding from south to north
Tuesday. A return flow begins Wed with winds 10 knots or less
ahead of the approaching cold front. Then winds will become
northerly after the frontal passage. Seas 3-5 ft wed, becoming
2-3 ft Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for AMZ137.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152-
154.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT
Monday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...CQD/BM
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