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FXUS62 KMHX 261035
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
635 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Atlantic will build in this afternoon
through the weekend bringing above normal temperatures and below
normal rain chances. A cold front will approach from the west
Monday and cross Monday night or Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 630 AM Wed...Latest sfc analysis shows stacked low off
the Delmarva coast. High pressure to the east will gradually
build westward over the SE US today, as upper ridge builds.
Latest satellite imagery shows widespread low stratus across the
area early this morning as moisture wraps around the distant
low. Clouds will push off the coast late morning and early
afternoon, becoming partly cloudy. Low level thickness values
and W/WSW flow support highs several degrees above normal, mid
70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 250 AM Wed...Quiet night as high continues to build in,
with skies clearing. Overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Wed...Warm and mainly dry thru the weekend then
rain chances increase early next week as a cold front crosses.

Thu through Sun...This period will be dominated by surface high
pressure offshore with ridging aloft. There is a rapidly
dampening short wave that will pass to the NW later Thu night
and Fri morn with potential for widely sct to sct convection.
Have 20 to 30 pops later Thu night with best chcs late near cst.
Outside of this precip looks mostly dry with just a few widely
sct shra/tsra poss most afternoons and evenings assoc with sea
breeze. With predominately southwest flow thru the weekend will
have very warm temps with highs mostly 85 to 90 inland and
upper 70s to lower 80s beaches. Early summer like lows in the
60s to lower 70s.

Mon through Tue...A cold front will approach from the W Mon and
slowly cross the region Mon night and early Tue. Will remain
warm Mon with chc of some convection espcly inland during the
aftn as the front approaches. Both GFS and ECMWF show good
moisture and rainfall Mon night so have good chc pops all areas
for this time. Looks like weakening front will slide offshore
Tue with lingering shra ending from W to E. Highs Mon will
again climb well into the 80s then cool into the 70s Tue behind
the front.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 630 AM Wed...Widespread sub-VFR ceilings continue across
the terminals this morning, bouncing between IFR and MVFR.
Ceilings will gradually improve to VFR by late morning/early
afternoon, becoming mostly clear tonight.

Long Term /Thu through Sunday/...
As of 230 AM Wed...VFR should dominate most of this period. May
have wdly sct to sct shra and tsra Thu night as weakening short
wave crosses...otherwise mainly dry with just isold late day
shra/tsra poss with sea breeze. SW flow around offshore high
pres shld limit threat for late night fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 630 AM Wed...Latest obs show W winds 5-15kt, with seas
4-7 feet, highest across the outer central waters. Swell from
now distant low pressure system will continue to impact the
waters through the period, with seas slowly subsiding. W winds
5-15 kt today, becoming S/SW this afternoon. SCA continues for
the coastal waters for lingering elevated seas, with seas
subsiding to below 6 ft this afternoon and evening. Expect
elevated seas to linger for the central waters through late this
evening. SW winds 10-15 kt tonight, with seas 3-6 feet.

Long Term /Thu through Sun/...
As of 230 AM Wed...Moderate SW flow of 10 to 20 kts expected
thru the period around offshore high pres. These winds combined
with some lingering swell may lead to 6 foot seas outer central
and srn wtrs later Thu into Fri evening...otherwise seas of 3 to
5 feet rest of the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 250 AM Wed...The Tar River in Greenville is currently
forecast to crest above major flood stage, while Contentnea
Creek in Hookerton is expected to crest above moderate flood
stage. The NE Cape Fear River in Chinquapin and Neuse River in
Kinston expected to reach minor flooding tonight.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-103-
104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
154.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ156-158.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/EH
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD
HYDROLOGY...MHX
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