FXUS62 KMHX 110816
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
316 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...AND MOVE OFF THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
MOVING EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...00Z GFS/NAM AGREE IN THE OVERALL SCENARIO OF WET
AND UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. 12Z
ECMWF IS PREFERRED BY HPC FOR ITS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO WILL
BE USING IT FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST PACKAGE. A WEAK TROF WILL
LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY. TIME SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS BACKING IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. KEPT 50-60 POPS
THIS MORNING THEN CATEGORICAL THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IN PLACE. THE WEAK
TROF LINGERS ALONG/NEAR THE COAST WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD
INSTABILITY FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING SO
KEPT IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER. FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS WILL BE VERY LOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO
HAIL COULD BE A THREAT IN ANY STRONGER STORMS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND TAPERED BACK POPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 435 PM WED...DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES STILL EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES TRANSITIONS NORTH OF
THE AREA LEAVING ERN NC IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER WLY FLOW. MODELS SHOW
VERY LITTLE QPF OVER THE AREA SAT NITE-SUN BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCHC
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DIFFICULT TO TIME...SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT MAY ACCOMPANY DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH. WHILE THERE REMAIN TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...THERE
IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE SFC LOW PULLS E FROM THE MID ATLC COAST...ALLOWING LOCAL LOW
LVL FLOW TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH. MSTR LOOKS LIMITED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT THIS POINT SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT. HIGH PRES
FINALLY EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW AS WE MOVE INTO MID NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WX TO PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MVFR (MAINLY IN CEILINGS) BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION THROUGH NOON EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT/SPOTTY...THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAVY
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

MIX OF MVFR AND IFR PERSISTING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COMPLEX
FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN...THEN VFR
RETURNING SAT AFTN WITH DRYING AND PREVAILING REST OF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...ONE LAST DAY OF LIGHT WINDS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO 15 KT TODAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW MAINTAINS A COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SEVERAL LOW CENTERS
MIGRATING THROUGH THE WATERS. BEST MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE ECMWF
WITH BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. A WARM FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DEVELOPING MODERATE S/SE FLOW TO 25 KT EXPECTED SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET. SEAS PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AT 14 FT
IN THE WAVE WATCH AND 12 FT IN THE SWAN WAVE MODELS. WINDS COULD
BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI NIGHT BUT INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AS A TRIPLE
POINT LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE WATERS AND SWITCHES FLOW TO WESTERLY AROUND 25 KT INTO SUNDAY.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT BY MONDAY. WITH DOUBLE DIGIT SEAS IN
THE FORECAST A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST FRIDAY TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JME
MARINE...JME



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