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FXUS62 KMHX 201707
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1207 PM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through the area today. High pressure
will control the weather across the region Wednesday through
Friday. An area of low pressure will affect the area on
Saturday, followed by another one on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 10 am Tue...The latest sfc analysis is showing the a low
pressure system off the New England region with it's trailing
cold front over the western sections of NC this morning. The
cold front will pass through eastern NC this afternoon and will
be off the coast by this evening. A plume of moisture is ahead
of the cold front with good lift in the mid to upper levels
which will allow for isolated to scattered rain showers to
develop. Most of the showers will be on the light sides, and not
expecting a lot of accumulation; less than 0.05 inches. Any
shower activity will end quickly from west to east this
afternoon as the front approaches and then moves off the coast.
Kept PoPs between 20-30% across the area with the highest along
the coastal half. Increased high temps about 1-3 degrees for
today based on this mornings UA sounding; low level thicknesses
are a little higher than predicted. Expect highs in the to
range low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 am Tue...Forecast soundings and time sections show a
very dry airmass across the region tonight under mostly clear
skies with a light northwest wind. Fog is not forecast. Lows
will range in the mid/upper 30s inland to lower/mid 40s Outer
Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Mostly quiet weather is expected through
Friday as surface high pressure prevails across the area. The
models continue to signal more amplification in the upper flow
beginning this weekend and continuing into next week as a mean
trough is carved out over the northeast. The models spawn a
couple of surface lows, one Friday night into Saturday and
another one Monday but differ on their tracks.

Wednesday through Friday...High pressure will build over the
area from the north through the period producing cool dry
weather across Eastern NC mid through late week. Highs Wednesday
will be in the 50s. A reinforcing dry cold front will move
through Wednesday night into early Thursday and 850mb temps
drop below zero across the northern half of the area.
Thanksgiving Day looks like the coldest day with highs only in
the mid 40s to around 50, coolest across the northern half of
the forecast area, combined with a brisk NNE wind. A hard freeze
inland will be possible Thursday night-early Fri morning. Lows
are progged to be in the mid to upper 20s inland and low to mid
30s coast. Highs Friday warm back into the low to mid 50s. Could
see a few coastal showers late in the day Friday as the flow
becomes easterly and moisture increases along the SE coast ahead
of an approaching coastal warm front.

Friday night through Sunday...A developing surface low is
forecast to impact the area Friday night into Saturday but the
track remains uncertain with some models keeping the low
offshore while others are just inland of the NC coast. Still
looking like a period of heavy rain and strong winds for the
area, with any severe threat dependent on the track of the
system (an inland track would be more favorable for severe
weather). Weak high pressure briefly builds into the area from
the southwest Sunday with dry weather expected. Temps will be
mild this period with highs in the 60s and lows in the mid/upper
40s inland to low/mid 50s coast.

Monday...Another low pressure system is forecast to impact the
area Monday but there remains significant model differences with
the timing, track and intensity of this system and continue to
keep PoPs in the low chance range. Mild conditions expected to
persist with the region in the warm sector ahead of the front
with highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through 18z Wednesday/...
As of 1205 PM Tuesday...Shield of mostly mid-level clouds will
continue to slowly erode from west to east during the remainder
of the afternoon. Any light showers are now mostly south of the
TAF sites, and will have no impact on ceiling or visibilities
early this afternoon. The TAF sites should have generally clear
skies overnight. Dewpoints will drop off steadily after 00z,
and coupled with a light WNW/NW breeze, should preclude any fog
formation tonight. VFR conditions are expected to persist
through midday Wednesday under mostly clear skies.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected into Friday
with high pressure over the area. Sub-VFR conditions are
expected Friday night into Saturday as a developing low moves
across the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/
As of 10 am Tue...The latest buoy observations are showing WSW
winds 10-20 knots and seas 3-4 ft. A cold front will pass
through the marine zones from the west today. The flow will be
westerly today, averaging 10-15 knots north of Cape Hatteras and
15-20 knots south, with 10-15 knots on the sounds and rivers.
Winds tonight will be northwest to north, averaging 15-20 knots
on the coastal waters and 10-15 knots on the sounds and rivers.
Seas today and tonight will average 2-4 knots north of Ocracoke
and 3-5 feet south.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...High pressure ridges into the region
Wednesday with NW to W winds around 5-15 kt and seas around 2-4
ft. A dry cold front will move through the waters Wed night and
early Thursday with strong high pressure building in from the
north behind the front. North winds around 15-25 kt with higher
gusts expected Thursday with winds veering to northeast around
10-20 kt Friday, strongest south of Cape Hatteras. Seas expected
to build Thursday and Thursday night to 5-8 ft northern and
central waters and 3-6 ft southern waters, then gradually
diminish to 3-5 ft by late Friday across all waters. This will
be short-lived however as a strong low pressure system is
expected to impact the area Saturday. There remains significant
uncertainty in the track and strength of the low at this time
but could see strong Small Craft to low end Gale Force
conditions ahead of the low Saturday and seas building to around
6-10 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/BM
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...SK/HSA/BM
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