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FXUS62 KMHX 220808
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
408 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain in between high pressure offshore and low
pressure to the west and southwest through midweek. Associated
warm and moist southerly flow will produce above normal chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 325 AM Sunday...With mid-level dry slot over area, main
threat of convective activity this morning will be over coastal
plains with shortwave ahead of upper low moving in from NW.
Isolated shower activity may move in along coast as well but
higher chance POPs will be confined to coastal plains until this
afternoon. As upper low digs further south, mid-level blow will
back from westerly to southerly this afternoon with moisture,
instability, and shortwave energy supportive of scattered to
broken coverage of showers and storms most of area and continued
previous forecast likely POPs. With forecast shear of 25-35 KT,
a few storms may be strong to severe. More insolation supports
max temps 85-90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM Sunday...Digging upper low to W-SW will keep deep
moisture axis across area with PW AOA 2 inches with broken
coverage of showers/storms continuing through the night.
Isolated severe storms will remain possible but locally
excessive rainfall will be more of a threat with repeating
cells possibly producing amounts of 2-3 inches overnight.
Southerly flow will keep min temps in mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...A warm and moist southerly flow will
persist through this week due to lingering low pressure to the
west and high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean, leading
to unsettled weather conditions from through much of next week.

Monday through Wednesday...Deep, warm, and moist southerly flow
will persist through much of the upcoming week between broad
low pressure aloft over the Deep South states and western
Atlantic high pressure. This pattern is conducive for widespread
showers and thunderstorms, most widespread during peak heating
and when periodic shortwaves move through mean flow aloft.
Timing of midlevel features remains the unknown at this time.
The highest chances for rain will be roughly Monday afternoon
through Wednesday when channeled vorticity sets up over Eastern
NC with an elongated axis of very high PWATs stretching from the
tropical western Atlantic Ocean. Given persistence amongst
guidance over the past several runs, have increased PoPs
slightly during this time frame, with the potential for 2 to 5
inches of rainfall, highest closer to the coast, Monday through
Wednesday. Will continue to highlight flood potential in HWO.
While moisture will be abundant, instability and shear will be
marginal for supporting widespread severe convection; thus
expect diurnally-driven isolated severe storm potential each
afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday...The persistent upper trough to our
west finally fills and shifts northeast from the Deep South
states towards the Mid-Atlantic, with high pressure continuing
offshore. Another deep trough digs into the northern Great Lakes
region, which will shift the moisture advection from S/SE to
southwesterly. Expect convection to be more diurnally focused
each day with a more typical summertime pattern.

Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be a few degrees
below climatological normals, ranging from highs in the mid to
upper 80s inland with low to mid 80s for the coast. Temps will
rise to average late July temperatures by Thursday through the
weekend. Minimum temps will range from the low to mid 70s
throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Sunday/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...Current VFR all sites expected to prevail
most of the night but a TEMPO period of IFR stratus just below
1K ft also likely for sites west of KEWN mainly 08Z-12Z. Mid-
level dry slot currently keeping precip west and east of area
will continue rest of night, then deepening southerly flow and
moisture expected to produce scattered to broken coverage of
convective activity afternoon into evening with brief periods of
sub-VFR possible. Southerly winds will gust up to 20 KT this
afternoon.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Periodic Sub-VFR conditions are expected
through Thursday as an unsettled pattern develops across Eastern
NC. Southerly flow will persist through much of next week.
Lowered ceilings and visibilities will be more likely Monday
afternoon through Wednesday, then during the overnight hours for
locations that receive precipitation and that can become
calm/decouple prior to sunrise early each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...Pressure gradient has relaxed overnight
allowing southerly winds to diminish to 10-15 KT with seas down
to 3-5 ft. Tighter gradient expected to return with heating
today with gusty winds and elevated seas redeveloping by early
afternoon. Adjusted SCA accordingly by dropping for this morning
and starting at noon. Southerly winds 15-25 KT will persist
through tonight with seas building to 6-8 ft.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...SCA conditions expected to start the week
with SE winds 15-25 kt and seas 5-8 ft. Low end SCA conditions
are expected over the waters from Tuesday through Thursday when
moderate S/SW winds 10-20 kt develop between low pressure well
west of the waters and high pressure across the western Atlantic
Ocean, producing 4 to 6 ft seas, highest for the outer fringes
of the coastal waters. While boating conditions will be poor for
most of the period, conditions will be exacerbated by a prolonged
period of showers and thunderstorms from approximately Monday
afternoon through Wednesday. Winds and seas will eventually fall
below SCA levels by late week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 12 PM EDT today until 5 AM
EDT Tuesday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 12 PM EDT today until 9 PM EDT
Thursday for AMZ150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/JBM
MARINE...DAG/JBM
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