FXUS62 KMHX 260737
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
337 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017
A frontal system will meander just off the coast through Tuesday Night.
High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday through late
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 3 AM Monday...A few showers have popped up west of ILM
early this morning, otherwise no precipitation is occurring over
land in the MHX CWA. High-resolution HRRR and RAP models keep
the bulk of any precipitation today offshore, but will keep a
slight chance along the coast to account for the showers moving
up from the ILM area this morning and additional activity that
may form along the seabreeze later today, which should be pinned
close to the coast given much drier air moving into the western
and central portions of the CWA. With lower dewpoints,
especially inland, expect high temperatures in the mid 80s CWA-
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Surface ridge will slowly start to build in
from the west tonight pushing frontal boundary further
offshore as axis of mid-level trough approaches. This will serve
to push any precipitation even further offshore and will
forecast dry weather overnight. Pleasant temperatures for late
June expected tonight with lower 60s inland ranging to the lower
70s Outer Banks as dewpoints drop into the upper 50s to lower
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM Mon...Scattered showers expected Tuesday. Then,
cooler and much drier air will spread into Eastern NC Wednesday
through late week. Typical summertime pattern redevelops late
week into next weekend with temps a few degrees above normal and
scattered diurnal driven convection.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night...A strong mid-level shortwave
will move through Virginia and the Carolinas Tuesday into
Tuesday night, supporting scattered showers and possibly a
thunderstorm. Forecast soundings indicate marginal instability
but strong shear and much cooler temps aloft, 500mb temps drop
to -12/-14C, could see some small hail especially a few hours
in the afternoon/early evening. Will continue chance PoPs with
slight chance thunder, but think it will be isolated. Low level
thickness values and predominant N/E flow support highs in the
low/mid 80s Tuesday, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Much cooler Tue night with lows dropping into the upper 50s
inland and mid 60s along the coast.
Wednesday through Sunday...Strong high pressure will move overhead
Wednesday, and off the coast late week into the weekend. While
overhead, this high will provide a somewhat refreshing airmass
with lower humidities and cooler temps. Temperatures quickly
warm back up however, as southwest winds return on Thursday and
highs creep back to the mid 80s/90 degrees late week and the
weekend. Low temps in the 60s mid week, then warming back into
the 70s this weekend. Typical summertime pattern redevelops late
week into next weekend, with troughing inland and high pressure
offshore. Dry wx will cont through late week, with scattered
diurnal convective chances by the weekend. Will continue chance
pops inland/sc along the coast Sat and Sun, with isolated precip
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Tuesday/...
As of 1255 AM Monday...Widespread mid and high level clouds
indicated by satellite although some breaks are indicated and
are expected overnight. With light rain occurring in the
vicinity of KOAJ and KEWN, will include a period of MVFR fog
for the early morning hours of Monday, otherwise will forecast
VFR conditions for this TAF cycle as the primary threat for
lower ceilings and widely scattered precipitation will remain
east of the TAF sites today and tonight.
Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 245 AM Mon...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. Scattered showers and storms may produce
brief period of sub-VFR conditions Tuesday. As usual, patchy
fog/stratus will be possible most mornings.
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 305 AM Monday...Winds are generally WNW/NW this morning at
10-15 knots over the central and northern coastal waters and
Pamlico Sound, with 5-10 knots elsewhere. Seas continue at a
benign 2-3 feet. Winds will veer to NE/E by later this morning
then to S/SW by tonight ahead of next cold front, but speeds
should remain at 10 knots or less. Seas will remain at 3 feet or
less through the period.
Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 245 AM Mon...Generally benign and pleasant boating
conditions expected through late week. A weak cold front will
move through early Tuesday, N/NW winds 5-10 kt early, becoming
NE/E with seas around 2 ft. Surface high pressure will build
over the area Tuesday night from the northwest, crest over the
waters Wednesday, and move offshore Thursday. Winds will shift
to north/northeast 5-15 kts Wednesday, then become southeast to
south 5-15 kts on Thursday. Gradient will tighten Fri with high
pressure offshore and troughing inland, S/SW winds increase to
10-15 kt. Seas will be generally 2-3 ft.
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