FXUS62 KMHX 050819
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
319 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING N OF THE FRONT WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS MAXIMIZED AND EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO SPREAD INTO SRN
AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFFSHORE. TEMPS ARE NOW FALLING THROUGH THE 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT AS A COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND ARE IN THE
M40S NRN TIER AND EXPECT TEMPS TO BE IN THE M40S NORTH TO L50S S
BY DAYBREAK.

AXIS OF PCPN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL DRYING AFTER 15Z WHICH WILL
ALLOW STEADIER RAIN TO DIMINISH WITH MAINLY DRIZZLE OR A LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS
REMAINS MOIST BELOW H85 AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION STRENGTHENS.
EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH NLY
FLOW AND CAA PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
IN THE U40S TO L50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...THE STRONG INVERSION WILL BE INPLACE EARLY IN THE
EVENING BUT MODEL SOUNDING INDICATING SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N WHICH COULD ALLOW LOW
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT PREVENTING COMPLETE DECOUPLING AND EXPECT
LOWS IN THE U30S TO L40S INLAND TO M/U40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUN...WEAK HIGH PRES JUST TO THE N WILL PRODUCE DRY WX
EARLY MONDAY. BY LATE MON APPROACHING SRT WAVE WILL LEAD TO WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE CST TO THE S. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME INTENSITY
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SRT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW...FOR NOW
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFF WITH SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS DEVELOPING LATE
MON AND CONT MON NIGHT WITH BEST CHCS IMD CST. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ALOFT TUE WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION. HIGHS MON MAINLY
55 TO 60...WITH MORE SUN AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHLD SEE LOWER 60S
MOST SPOTS TUE.

HIGH PRES WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE N WED WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW
POSS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIP ESPCLY NRN TIER WHERE HAVE SLIGHT
CHC POPS. UPR TRF WILL APPROACH THU WITH MDLS SHOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE LIFTING NE MAINLY ALONG THE CST THU AND THU NIGHT...CONT
PREV FCST OF SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH COOL HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SAT.
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 60 OR SO WED THRU
FRI...WILL COOL TO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S TO THE SRN COAST WITH NLY
FLOW AND AREAS OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS RTES N OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL RTES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS STILL REPORTED AT EWN AND OAJ AT 08Z BUT EXPECT CIGS TO
LOWER TO IFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
MOISTEN. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AS MID LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION SO EXPECT PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...PERHAPS LIFTING TO
MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDING INDICATING LOW LEVEL DRYING
TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT THE GREATEST WITH THE ERROSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUN...MAINLY VFR EARLY MON THEN AS PRECIP DEVELOPS IN
THE AFTN AHEAD OF SRT WAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR AND POSS LCL IFR
CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONT INTO MON NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE CST THU AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP AND POSS SOME REDUCED CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING S ACROSS THE WATERS
FASTER THAN MODELS PREDICTING AND IS NOW TO ABOUT CAPE LOOKOUT.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY N AROUND 10-15 KT N OF THE FRONT AND PROGGED
TO BE SW 15-20 KT S OF THE FRONT BUT LACK OF OBSERVATIONS MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT SPEEDS. BUOY 41036 INDICATING 7 FT
SEAS SO THOSE SPEEDS SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE WATERS FASTER THAN EXPECTED SEAS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS EARLIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST AND HAVE
ADJUST THE END OF THE SCA S OF OCRACOKE TO NOON...WHICH IS IN LINE
WITH WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DESPITE IT'S TIMING OF THE FRONT BEING TOO
SLOW. NLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TODAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILD IN FROM THE N WHICH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF OCRACOKE BY THE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. WAVEWATCH CONTINUES SEAS AROUND 6 FT UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION OF THE SCA UNTIL 10Z
MON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUN...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS MON AS WEAK HIGH PASSES OFF
THE CST. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE OFFSHORE OF THE CST MON
NIGHT...NRLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
HOWEVER DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE ECMWF AS IT LOOKED A BIT STRONG.
PRES GRDNT IS QUITE LOOSE OVER THE AREA TUE INTO THU AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES TUE AND WED WITH WEAK LOW DEVELOP WELL TO THE S THU. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WINDS AOB 15 KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
MONDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK



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