FXUS62 KMHX 240200

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

High pressure will build in from the northwest tonight then
move offshore Saturday. Low pressure will cross south of the
area Saturday night. High pressure will build in from the north
later Sunday through early next week as low pressure moves well


.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...
As of 10 PM Fri...No changes needed with updated. Temps on their
way towards freezing and are currently in the 35-40 degree

Previous discussion... As of 730 PM Fri...Ongoing fcst in good
shape. Should see a sharp diurnal dropoff in temps tonight with
very light winds and clr skies, so lowered hourly temps this
evening with temps dropping to freezing around or after midnight
for location away from the immediate beaches. Therefore fz
warning for Carteret/Onslow still in good shape.

Previous discussion...As of 245 PM Fri...Latest sfc analysis
shows 1044mb high pressure centered over south/central Canada,
extending southward into the SE US. Mostly sunny skies across
the region this afternoon, though could see scattered stratocu
develop across the northern tier late this afternoon and this
evening. Another cold night expected with good radiational
cooling expected, given high pressure overhead and light winds.
Low temps generally in the lows to mid 30s. Issued another
Freeze Warning for inland portions of Carteret and Onslow
counties, where the growing season has already begun.


As of 245 PM Fri...High pressure weakens and shifts off the
coast Saturday ahead of the approaching low pressure system from
the west. Moisture continues to increase through the day as the
low pressure area moves eastward. Still looks like most of the
precip will hold off until afternoon, taking awhile to moisten
the column. Adjusted pops slightly based on latest guidance,
increasing pops inland late afternoon and early evening. The
best chance for precip occurs Saturday night when isentropic
lift and moisture are maximized. Another cool day with temps
well below normal, highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.


As of 330 AM Friday...
Saturday night through Sunday...A complex forecast this weekend
and two systems phase across the region. A southern stream
shortwave and sfc low pressure across the central Plains
approaches from the west while a northern stream shortwave digs
south across the mid-Atlantic with cold Canadian high pressure
building in from the north.

The low will weaken as it approaches the area as it encounters
the high wedging into the region but then redevelops off the
coast as it encounters good baroclinicity invof the Gulf Stream.
Precip amounts have increased some with generally a quarter to
three quarters of an inch possible. Models continue to suggest
the potential for wintry precip along and north of where the 850
mb through is progged to be, which is mainly across the
northern tier, and have added rain or snow to the grids north of
the Pamlico River. Not including any accumulation at this time
as sfc temps will be above freezing but if precip rates are high
enough could see minor accumulation on grassy/elevated surfaces.
Temps continue below normal this period with highs Saturday in
the mid 40s NE coastal sections to mid 50s south. Lows Saturday
night expected in the mid 30s to around 40 and continued cool
Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 40s most areas with lower
50s possible southern sections.

Monday through Thursday...A blocking pattern develops early to
mid week as the upper trough lifts out early next week and
becomes a vertically stacked low across the NW Atlantic while
longwave ridging builds along the eastern seaboard. The upper
ridge will maintain dry conditions while sfc high pressure
continued to wedge in from the north keeping cool temps to the
area Monday. The high weakens as we move into mid-week with the
airmass gradually modifying, however how quickly it modifies
will depend on the position and track of the cut-off low off the
coast. Models are still not in good agreement with the movement
of the upper low with the ECMWF still farther south and closer
to the coast bringing us prolonged northerly winds across the
region and cooler temps into mid week while the GFS is farther
offshore allowing the high to push south faster bringing greater
warming as we move into mid week. Could see temps into the
upper 60s/lower 70s as early as Wednesday and mid to upper 70s
Thursday if the GFS verifies, while the ECMWF is about 10
degrees cooler during the mid-week period.


Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 730 PM Fri...High confidence for VFR through the first 3/4
of the TAF period. Winds become light/var overnight with only
some sct cirrus at best. Rain chances increase Sat afternoon
with ceilings gradually lowering to MVFR in the afternoon. May
be some sleet pellets falling as early as 21-22Z as temps aloft
will be supportive of the sleet.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Friday...A weak low pressure area will move across
the area Saturday night and expect IFR or below much of the
overnight. The low pressure area pulls away from the area Sunday
but lingering low level moisture may continue to bring sub-VFR
conditions into Sunday. Expect pred VFR Sunday night through


Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 730 PM Fri...Allowed SCA to expire as seas have dropped
below 6 ft for central waters. No other changes made.

As of 245 PM Fri...Latest obs show N/W winds 5-15 kt, strongest
across the outer central waters...with seas still 4-7 ft north
of Ocracoke and 2-4 ft south. Extended SCA north of Ocracoke
through early this evening for lingering elevated seas, but may
be able to cancel early for the very northern waters. High pres
will continue to build in from the NW tonight, weakening and
moving off the coast Saturday, as an area of low pressure
approaches from the west. N/NW winds expected to pick up to
10-20 kt tonight and early Sat morning, then becoming variable
NE/E 5-10 kt Sat afternoon. Seas shld avg 3 to 5 feet north and
central to 2 to 4 feet S late tonight, subsiding to 2-4 ft north
and central to 1-3 ft Sat afternoon.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Friday...A weak area of low pressure approaches
from the west and passes south of the area Saturday night.

NE winds begin to increase after midnight Saturday night as low
pressure low deepens off the coast as it moves away from the
area and reach 20-30 kt Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
Meso models are on the stronger side of the models and indicate
a period of Gale Force winds possible, mainly coastal waters
south of Oregon Inlet and perhaps portions of the Pamlico Sound.
Seas build quickly Sunday as low pressure deepens off the
coast, reaching around 7-10 ft north and 5-9 ft south by

The low pressure system stalls across the NW Atlantic as we move
into mid week and there is a lot of uncertainty how far offshore
this low will be and ultimately the wind direction and speeds
across the coastal waters. Will continue to advertise N/NE winds
around 10-20 kt Tuesday but if the low pulls farther offshore
winds may weaken through the afternoon. The low will continue to
bring large swells into the coastal waters and seas will
potentially be around 8-12 ft or higher across the northern
waters and 4-8 ft southern waters into mid-week.


NC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ095-098.


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