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FXUS62 KMHX 251925
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
325 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic
through next week. Subtropical Storm Alberto will move into the
Gulf States early next week. The remnants of it will move into
the mid-Atlantic states by the end of the week. The circulation
around the system will keep a deep supply of tropical moisture
and unsettled weather across the area through most of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 325 pm Fri...Afternoon CU will dissipate this evening
with skies becoming mostly clear. Winds are expected to become
light to calm, allowing for good radiational cooling which will
lead to low stratus to develop after midnight in high RH
boundary layer. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70 across
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 325 pm Fri...Continuing moistening and warming conditions
expected. By afternoon, more of a typical summer time pattern
with an iso or sct shower or storm for inland locales and rising
hts near the coast spelling dry conditions in the afternoon.
Have 30-40 pops for wrn/srn areas on Sat. Temps very warm and
humid with highs 85-90 inland and near 80 beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 pm Fri...

Saturday night...Dry but muggy with lows in the 70-75 degree
range.

Sunday...Have trended drier with fcst, as ridging will be in
place courtesy of Bermuda high offshore with above climo hts. It
will be quite warm and humid, with highs in the 85-90 degree
range again inland, to near 80 beaches. Pops will only be 20%
wrn half to 10% eastern zones.

Sunday Night through Monday...Increased confidence this period
with threat for heavy rain and localized flooding, as models
converging on piece of energy associated with the tropical
system in the Gulf moving through E NC. Layer moisture increases
dramatically by Sun eve with advertised Pwats inc to aoa 2
inches, and layer streamlines approaching 15 g/kg, indicative of
tropical air mass across E NC. Forcing for ascent increases as
the area will be under RRQ of upr jet streak to the north. These
ingredients combine to bring up to a few inches of rain
possible for Sunday night into Monday. Have added +RA wording to
grids and will highlight heavy rain threat in HWO. Have inc
pops further to 70-80%.

Monday Night through Thursday...Fcst becomes less certain this
period, as the area will still be under threat for showers and
storms indirectly associated with the tropical system over the
deep south. Will maintain higher chance pops but cap them at
50%, as timing of potential shortwaves interacting with frontal
boundary in the area will dictate when and where precip moves
through the region. Nevertheless, it still looks like an
unsettled period as very warm and humid air mass will still be
in place. Highs this period generally in the mid 80s inland to
near 80 coast. Lows will be 70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Sat/
As of 325 pm Fri...Afternoon CU will dissipate this evening
leaving mostly clear skies. However, boundary layer RH will be
high, and with mostly calm winds radiational cooling will allow
for low stratus to form with IFR forecast at all 4 terminals in
the hours just before and after dawn. VFR will develop by mid-
morning with light SSW winds around 10 knots in the afternoon.
Scattered afternoon convection possible, mainly at PGV and ISO.

Long Term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Fri...Mainly VFR through Sunday, though threat for
overnight fg/stratus bringing conditions to MVFR or lower.
Better chance for widespread sub VFR comes into play Sunday
night through Monday as tropical moisture and periods of heavy
rain move into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sat/
As of 325 pm Fri...Southwest flow will be the rule in the short
term with high pressure off the southeast coast. Winds will
average around 10 knots tonight on the coastal waters and
sounds, 5-10 knots on the rivers. Winds will increase Saturday,
courtesy of the offshore high and increasing land/sea thermal
gradient. Speeds will be 10-20 kt on the coastal waters and 5-15
knots on the rivers. Some gusts will approach 25 kt Sat
afternoon and evening on the Pamlico Sound. Seas will average
2-4 feet.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Fri...The SW winds will generally remain 10-20 kt
through Tuesday, with seas building close to SCA range (4-6 ft)
later Mon into Tuesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 325 pm Fri...KMHX radar is down until further notice,
awaiting parts.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/TL
MARINE...HSA/TL
EQUIPMENT...MHX
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