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FXUS62 KMHX 151945
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
345 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure just offshore will slowly drift further east, but
continue to ridge into the area into early next week. Chances
of showers and thunderstorms return by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Sat...Quiet weather continues this afternoon and
through tonight, with mostly clear skies and high pressure just
offshore. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to low
80s, and expect a few more degrees of warming this afternoon.
Dewpoints have crept up into the low 60s in some spots, though
it still feels quite comfortable compared with how humid it
could be this time of year. Temps will cool into the low 70s
this evening, and then bottom out overnight in the low to mid
60s inland, and the upper 60s to low 70s closer to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sat...High pressure will drift a bit further east
tomorrow, but will still keep any rain chances away from the
area. Southerly flow will increase through the day, and we will
see dewpoints on the rise and reaching the low 70s by the
afternoon. The heat will also return, with high temps climbing
into the low 90s inland, and the mid to upper 80s closer to the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 PM Sat...Becoming hot and humid with occasional
thunderstorms by Tuesday through Thursday, then drier and
continued hot and humid late in the week.

Monday through Tuesday...A summertime pattern sets up across
the area with the high off the coast and the inland surface trof
in place. Temps will climb further, and TD's will be
uncomfortably high into the 70s. Highs reach the low 90s inland,
and the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Low temps will again
become warm and muggy...mostly remaining in the 70s.

Convective chances still minimal on Monday, as upr ridging
continues its grip on E NC. Perhaps a storm or two on Tuesday
afternoon, though ridging still in control, and will cap pops
at 30% well inland, with coastal areas remaining dry.

Wednesday through Thursday...Ridge gets knocked down a bit by
mid week with low amplitude shortwaves riding through main flow
and bringing somewhat better chances of convection. Shear is
fairly minimal so not expecting severe, and any convection
should mainly be relegated to afternoon through early evening
with daytime heating. Will highlight 40-50% interior zones with
20-30% coastal areas. Remaining hot and humid with highs around
90 inland to mid/upr 80s nearer the coast, and 70s overnight
lows.

Friday through Saturday...15/12Z global model suite in good
agreement with front and shortwave moving off the East Coast by
early Friday, thus mainly a dry forecast. The front will not
bring relief from the heat and humidity however, with hot temps
and high humidities continuing as hts remain above climo. Highs
in the 90s inland to 80s beaches with lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through Sunday Afternoon/...
As of 220 PM Sat...VFR conditions are expected through the
short term, with mostly clear skies aside from some high clouds.
With moisture increasing under southerly flow, there is a
chance for some MVFR ceilings especially east of US 17, but the
signal appears weak, so will just include a scattered MVFR deck
for tomorrow morning a few hours either side of sunrise.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 345 PM Sat...VFR conditions expected through Monday with
high pressure rebuilding and dry air mass in place. Some ocnl
sub VFR possible Tue, and esp Wed and Thu, with afternoon and
early evening sct thunderstorms. Could be some overnight/early
morning BR/FG develop each morning as lower atmos moistens by
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 220 PM Sat...Winds are currently 5-15 kts out of the south
across the coastal waters, and will strengthen slightly this
afternoon before turning to the SW tomorrow at 10-15 kts in the
morning, and then 15-20 kts in the afternoon. Seas are currently
2-3 ft, and will remain fairly steady through the period.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 345 PM Sat...SW winds increase on Mon afternoon/evening
and again Tue and Wed, and with increasing thermal gradient
afternoon and evening winds 15-20 kt with ocnl gusts to 25 kt,
esp for Pamlico and srn/ctrl waters. Seas will increase a bit to
3-5 ft, with a choppy 5 foot periodicity. A front will move
through late Thursday or early Friday with more stout swrly
winds of 20-25 kt developing and seas building to 6+ ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/SGK
MARINE...TL/SGK
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