FXUS62 KMHX 240732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
332 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

A strong cold front will move across the area today and tonight.
High pressure will build over the area Wednesday through
Friday. Another cold front will move across over the weekend.


As of 3 AM Tue...Latest sfc analysis shows 989mb low over the
Great Lakes region with attendant cold front draped through the
Mid-Atlantic, Central NC and the GA/SC coasts. The low becomes
vertically stacked today as upper trough deepens to the west. Slow
moving cold front will continue to push eastward into Eastern
NC today, almost stalling along the coast this afternoon and
evening as it becomes parallel to the upper flow.

Latest radar imagery shows a line of showers and isolated
embedded storms this morning, extending from Martin county down
into Onslow county...with stratiform rain ahead of it along the
Outer Banks. This line is progged to lift E/NE over the next
several hours. Latest mesoanalysis shows SB CAPE values
1000-1500 J/kg, around 30 kt bulk shear, with enhanced low level
helicity along the Hwy 17 corridor. Will continue to monitor
the radar closely, though appears widespread svr threat is over,
though an isolated strong to severe storm will be possible for
the next few hours. Stronger winds aloft have been able to mix
down in showers, with gusts 30-40 mph. Periods of heavy rain
likely with PWAT values now around 2 inches. Adjusted pops based
on latest radar trends and high res guidance. Precip chances
will taper off from west to east this morning, with best chances
along the immediate coast late this morning and afternoon.
Latest satellite imagery shows rapid clearing behind this line
of convection over the central part of the state. Could see some
areas of fog develop inland if winds are able to decouple early
this morning. Low level thickness values and diminishing cloud
cover support highs in the upper 70s to low 80s again today.


As of 3 AM Tue...Vert stacked low over the Great Lakes will
weaken and lift northward tonight, as associated slow moving
cold front pushes through Eastern NC. Much cooler and drier air
filters in behind the front as upper trough moves into the
Eastern US. Could still see some isolated to widely scattered
showers along the immediate coast, mainly the Outer Banks.
Lowered pops from previous forecast based on latest high res
guidance, but chance pops may still be a little too high.
Overnight lows dropping to around 50 inland, and upper 50s to
low 60s along the immediate coast.


As of 315 AM Tuesday...One system will exit the area early
Wednesday with cool high pressure providing fall-like weather
through late week. Another system will approach the area
Saturday then bring another round of precipitation Sunday with
cooler air arriving again on Monday.

Wednesday...Some precipitation may linger along the Outer Banks
early in the day before cold front moves offshore by midday
taking the precipitation with it. Dewpoints will tumble into the
40s on Wednesday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
over most areas, except some lower 70s far southern zones.

Wednesday night through Saturday...High pressure will provide a
cooler, drier, more fall-like airmass Wednesday night through
Friday before the airmass moderates on Saturday ahead of an
oncoming cold front and developing surface low moving north from
Florida. Lows will be in the 40s over most of the CWA Thursday
and Friday morning, with 50s to lower 60s Outer Banks. Daytime
highs will be in the comfortable 60s Thursday, warming to the
lower 70s Friday with a few mid 70s possible Saturday. Moisture
starts to stream north in earnest on Saturday, but precipitation
should hold off until Saturday night.

Saturday night through Monday...The medium range models continue
to show an area of low pressure moving north out of Florida in
advance of another fairly strong cold front Saturday night and
Sunday. The GFS in particular is quite wet for Sunday and looks
to be overdone in comparison with other models. However, have
raised PoPs to high chance Saturday night and Sunday to account
for the wetter trend. Most of the instability on Sunday appears
to be offshore, but models have been inconsistent on the
strength of this system, but for now will have thunder just
offshore. Temperatures will be fairly warm for Sunday ahead of
the front, reaching the mid 70s, but another cooler and drier
airmass arrives for Monday with highs in the upper 50s to lower


Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Mixed bag of VFR and MVFR across the terminals
early this morning, as broken line of showers and isolated
storms pushes through. Gusty southerly winds this morning, with
gusts 20-30 kt in the showers. Precip should taper off from
west to east in the next few hours and likely be east of the TAF
sites by 12z. Could see a brief period of IFR this morning,
though expect pred MVFR through 12z. Conditions will be
improving this morning, becoming pred VFR between 12-15z. Skies
will gradually clear late today and tonight, with just some
scattered scu.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...All precipitation should be east of the
TAF sites by Wednesday morning with VFR conditions to prevail.
High pressure will build into the region with cooler drier
weather Thursday and Friday with increasing moisture bringing
scattered lower clouds by Saturday. Could see patchy early
morning fog, especially Thursday and Friday mornings when
radiational cooling conditions will be maximized.


Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Strong southerly winds and dangerous seas
across the waters this morning. SCA continues for the coastal
waters, sounds, and Alligator River. Latest obs show southerly
winds 20-30 kt and seas 5-10 ft. A cold front, currently over
Central NC, will continue to move slowly eastward today pushing
through the waters tonight. Gusty southerly winds will continue
most of today, slowly diminishing late evening and overnight.
Could see seas build up to around 11 ft on the central waters.
Winds become NW 10-15 kt behind the front late tonight, with
seas subsiding to 4-6 ft.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...With strong cool high pressure building
across the region, winds for Wednesday through Thursday should
be N/NW at 10-15 knots with seas generally 3-5 feet. By Friday,
as the high weakens and moves offshore and another system starts
to approach from the south, winds veer to Easterly then become
SE/S by Saturday with seas building to above 6 feet once again
as low pressure starts to approach from Florida and another
strong cold front approaches from the west. Small Craft Advisory
conditions will be likely once again by Saturday afternoon.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ130-
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ158.



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