FXUS63 KMKX 182045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
345 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019


Tonight Through Tuesday Night...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Stratocumulus clouds are gradually becoming more scattered across
the area with peak heating, with some broken sky cover still
lingering. Expect this to gradually diminish into early this
evening across the area. Some middle to high clouds should move
through the area tonight into Tuesday morning. Some question as to
how thick they will be during this period. Given this, kept lows
in the middle to upper 20s. May need cooler lows if these clouds
end up being thinner.

Light southwest winds bring slightly milder air into the area
Tuesday, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. May see a lake
breeze near the shoreline with south to southeast winds in the
afternoon. Dry conditions are expected.

Area remains between two 500 mb shortwave troughs passing through
the region. Should see an increase in clouds Tuesday night, though
air column remains dry enough to negate any precipitation.

Wednesday Through Thursday Night...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Models bring the northern portion of the 500 mb shortwave trough
southeast through the area Wednesday, along with a surface cold
front. Forecast soundings are showing some clouds moving through,
but moisture is rather meager through a deep layer. Thus, kept
most precipitation mention out of the forecast. Highs should reach
into the upper 40s to around 50, despite the increase in clouds.

North northwest flow at 500 mb then moves into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday night. The GFS tries to bring a
fairly strong 500 mb shortwave trough through the area Thursday
night, with the ECMWF and Canadian models further to the east.
Kept dry forecast going for now. Temperatures should remain mild
for this time of year.


Friday Through Monday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are showing a trend toward a 500 mb ridge axis building
into the region this weekend. There are some differences with
features, though they all show high pressure sliding southeast
through the region Friday into Saturday, remaining dry Sunday.
There may be some precipitation chances by Monday, though details
this far out are murky at best. Highs in the 50s look reasonable
for most of this period.



Scattered with some broken stratocumulus clouds should gradually
diminish into early this evening. Generally light west winds are
expected. Some middle to high clouds should move through tonight
into Tuesday morning. Winds will be light. May see patchy light
ground fog in low areas later tonight and early Tuesday morning.

May see more diurnal stratocumulus cloud development in the late
morning and afternoon on Tuesday, but not confident enough to
mention in TAFs at this time. Any ceilings here would be VFR
category. Light southwest winds are expected Tuesday, with south
to southeast winds near the lake in the afternoon.



Mainly light winds and low wave heights are expected tonight into
Tuesday across the nearshore and open waters of Lake Michigan.
Southwest winds should increase Tuesday night into Wednesday, then
veer west Wednesday then northwest Wednesday night, after a cold
front moves across the lake.

Some gusts to 25 knots are possible over the northern portions of
the open waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. Northwest winds may
increase again Thursday night into Friday over the lake, with
some gusts to 25 knots possible over the open waters. Otherwise,
relatively light winds and low wave heights are expected later in
the week.



River flooding will continue for the foreseeable future on the
main stem rivers across the area, with some of the smaller stem
rivers starting to crest and slowly fall. No appreciable rainfall
is expected this week and into this weekend. Thus, a gradual
melting of any remaining snow north of the area should continue to
keep main stem rivers like the Wisconsin, Rock and Fox (north)
high for awhile. See our Rivers and Lakes link on our website, and
our latest Situation Report, for the latest river flooding




Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Tuesday Night through Monday...Wood
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