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FXUS63 KMKX 250802
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
302 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight...Forecast Confidence is medium to high:

High pressure will continue to head eastward today, pulling away
from the region as low pressure approaches. Moisture will
gradually increase today into tonight ahead of the low. There
could be enough lift for a few sprinkles or light showers in the
west by later this afternoon, but model soundings show a lot of
dry air to overcome if precip is going to hit the ground. Could be
enough saturation eventually, so put a slight chance in there.
Have a slight chance for showers across southern Wisconsin
tonight as moisture continues to increase. Doesn't look like much
in the way of instability, so left out mention of thunder.

Temps aloft for today look fairly similar to the last couple days.
With increasing mid and high level clouds, temps may struggle to
get to what they did yesterday. Kept similar highs though, with
some filtered sunshine likely and given 925 mb temps maybe a
degree milder. Should see temps milder tonight than the last
couple nights given a somewhat milder airmass along with more
clouds.


Monday and Monday night...Forecast confidence is high.

No real change to the forecast reasoning during this period,
except to bump POPs higher due to higher confidence. Our main area
of precipitation will arrive Monday evening with the surface cold
front. This event features a leading southern stream mid level
shortwave that will lift into Illinois/Lower Michigan later
tonight into Monday morning. This could clip southeast Wisconsin
with a quick round of rain at that time. Things should then quiet
down until the frontal influence arrives late Monday
afternoon/evening. There's still enough CAPE, deep layer shear and
dynamics for a marginal risk of severe storms. But, the later
timing of the front will be working against storms achieving
severe status. Rainfall could be in the 3/4 to 1 inch range.

This is a very progressive system, so look for the rain to be
diminishing/ending quickly after 06z Tuesday. Expect it to be dry
by sunrise on Tuesday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Forecast confidence is high.

Brisk west winds will usher in a dry and cool airmass for mid
week. Overall, it looks like highs will be in the 70s, but
Wednesday could be a day where we struggle to reach 70. There's
some model disagreement on just how far the colder air will
penetrate, but expect a rather chilly day either way on Wednesday,
especially with those elevated winds.

Friday...Forecast confidence is medium.

The guidance suggest a weak trough will be dropping through the
area, but the airmass looks awfully dry to support any showers.
For now, will keep it dry, but we may end up introducing a small
chance of rain for Friday in the coming days.

Saturday and Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure looks to exert its influence again, providing a dry
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected to persist through tonight. Lake
clouds in the east are starting to dissipate early this morning,
with mainly mid and high level clouds likely today into tonight.
Could see some afternoon cumulus again, mainly away from Lake
Michigan.

A few showers or sprinkles are possible in the west later today,
with a slight chance for showers across southern Wisconsin
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

Persistent southeast winds between departing high pressure and an
approaching low today into Monday will result in building waves,
especially across western portions of Lake Michigan. Winds will
pick up tonight, with gusts to 25 knots possible. Gusty south and
then west winds are likely Monday night into Tuesday as the low
and an associated cold front move through the area. A Small Craft
Advisory will likely be needed for tonight into at least Monday
night.

Low pressure passing by to the north may bring westerly wind gusts
to advisory levels Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...

Increasing southeast winds ahead of an approaching cold front will
likely bring a high swim risk to the Lake Michigan beaches late
tonight through late Monday night. We'll likely issue a Beach
Hazards Statement later today to highlight this threat. West
winds arrive by Tuesday, bringing lower wave heights, but also a
cooler airmass.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Monday through Saturday...Davis
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