FXUS63 KMKX 140958
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
458 AM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010

FORECAST FOCUS ON DECREASING CLOUDS TODAY...QUIET WEATHER AND MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE
UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE
CONTINUED TO BRING CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME DRIZZLE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH MORE DRIZZLE
AND LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
AREA OF CLEARING SKIES NOTED OVER NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...GETTING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD SLOWLY ESCAPE THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH THE UPPER LOW AS
WELL. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA
ALREADY SEEING THIS CLEARING. EXPECT ONE MORE REINFORCING SHOT OF
CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING HELP ERODE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON MAY SCATTER OUT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH THIS AREA ALREADY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH THE
EXPECTED PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE.

.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND CONTINUED
MILD TEMPERATURES. LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE LAKE. 50S ARE
EXPECTED INLAND.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...EXITING ON
SATURDAY. FOR NOW...PREFER THE ECMWF HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM PER
HPC BLENDED FIELDS...AS IT USUALLY DOES A BETTER JOB WITH SYNOPTIC
SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW...WILL NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND MAY SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...QUESTION IS HOW FAR TO RAISE CEILINGS AND HOW FAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS SHOW
MVFR CIGS TO RISE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
AROUND SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. WILL BRING VFR CIGS TO KMSN AROUND
MID AFTERNOON...BUT HOLD OFF AT ERN SITES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS
THEY REMAIN UNDER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW LONGER. MAV MOS SHOWS SOME
HINTS OF FOG AT KMSN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ENOUGH SFC
WIND TO STIR LOW LEVELS SO WILL KEEP OUT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MKE ARE SHOWING 20+KT WINDS BELOW
1000 FT THROUGH 21Z...STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL PREVENT
FULL MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WILL LEAVE EXPIRATION TIME FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD
AVIATION/MARINE...09/REM



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