FXUS63 KMKX 042121 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008

...UPDATED MARINE HAZARD AND DISCUSSION...

.TONIGHT...AREA OF FLURRIES/VRY LGT SNOW MOVING THROUGH WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SAGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL EXIT
EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE CLOUDS FILLING IN UPSTREAM IN MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE A NOTCH BELOW THE COLDER
NAM MET MOS. MAY ADJUST BACK UP AT THE LAST MINUTE GIVEN TRENDS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS RETURN WAA
TO THE AREA BY AFTN ON FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE EARLY
ON FRIDAY...BUT WAA BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...QUIET ON
FRIDAY. NEXT ROUND OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODERATE H8-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DIGGING S/W FROM THE NORTHWEST
RESULTS IN A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. DEEP...BUT
NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...OMEGA OCCURS WITH A REASONABLE AMOUNT IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION. FRONTOGENETIC CONTRIBUTION IS WEAK
AND ONLY DISCERNABLE IN THE HI RES EDITIONS OF THE MODELS.
THUS...NOT A BIG FACTOR. SO IT LOOKS LIKE AN ISENTROPIC FOCUS AND
LOOKING AT THE 725MB-750MB SWEET SPOT...GFS IS SHOWING ABOUT
1.5G/KG AVAILABLE IN THE 12HR EVENT. WILL BE FOLLOWING THE GFS
TIMING AS IT AGREES BEST WITH THE SREF OUTPUT. THAT WOULD PUT THE
BEST SNOW CHANCE SQUARLY FROM 00Z SAT TO 12Z SAT. THINGS SHOULD
TAPER OFF QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH THE
AFTERNOON DRY MOST PLACES EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH RESPECT TO LIQUID/SNOW RATIOS...COBB TECHNIQUE AND
ROEBBER NEURAL NETWORK SCHEME SUPPORTS A 15 OR 18 TO 1. GIVEN QPF...
THIS LEADS TO A SOLID 2 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL. WITH A LACK OF
FRONTOGENSIS AND ITS USUAL BANDING...THE SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY
EVEN. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE FAR WRN CWA AND
AROUND 3 IN THE EAST.

.SUNDAY...QUICK SFC RIDGING AND SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL COMBINE WITH
FRESH SNOW FOR A CHILLY DAY AND NIGHT.

.MONDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE DIGS IN FOR MONDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW. CONSENSUS IS LEANING TOWARD A REALLY
COLD SHOT OF AIR BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER
TONIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. KEFT A BROKEN DECK OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING WHICH MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. PARTIAL
CLEARING TNGT NEAR KMSN. WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SITUATION TONIGHT...HOWEVER
ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARDS THE
OPEN WATERS TO CONTINUE HEADLINE. OFF SHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR MORE
PRONOUNCED SC.Y CONDITIONS TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM.
ENOUGH MIXING BELOW INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO GUST TO 30 KNOTS
SO WL CARRY SC.Y ALL THE WAY THRU NEAR TERM PERIOD. SC.Y WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING BECAUSE OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
BORDERLINE CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION/MARINE...FRANKS


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