FXUS62 KMLB 190149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
940 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018


Overnight...Moisture gradient continues across area with higher
values to the north. Onshore flow supporting few showers moving into
Volusia county but most significant activity over JAX forecast area.
Short range meso models indicate additional showers may move into
Volusia and even northern Brevard county overnight as measure of
decoupling begins and frictional convergence is enhanced. Current
forecast depicts this well with only minor changes expected.
Forecast temps on track.

Fri...High pressure will slide off of the mid Atlc coast
and into the western Atlc during the day. The pressure gradient will
relax a bit with easterly flow areawide. A fairly tight moisture
gradient continues across ECFL with PWAT values just over one inch
across the Treasure Coast and up to around 1.90 inches for Volusia
County. As such, have kept higher PoPs (50pct) north of I-4 tapering
down to 20pct or less south of KMCO. An isolated lightning threat
will be forecast for the I-4 corridor in the afternoon. Temperatures
remain warm aloft with dynamic support weak as deep layer high
pressure ridging continues over the region.


.AVIATION...Mainly VFR overnight with vicinity showers over DAB and
TIX with continued onshore flow. Mainly VFR continues Friday with
shower activity mostly over northern locations and along coast.


.MARINE...Tonight...Weak front to stay north of area. East to
northeast winds increasing up to around 10 kts overnight and up to
15 kts offshore. Seas 3 ft near shore, except up to 4 ft north of
the Cape overnight and up to 6 feet offshore Volusia.



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