FXUS62 KMLB 260811
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
410 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017
Today/Tonight...Low pressure will continue to lift up the eastern
seaboard from the mid Atlantic region today and tonight with
Atlantic ridge building across the FL peninsula next 24 hours.
Relatively light w-sw surface flow this morning will become
southeast and a little enhanced near the east coast this afternoon
with formation of the sea breeze circulation. High temperatures will
climb into the mid 80s inland but top out in the lower 80s near the
coast with the onshore flow developing early in the afternoon. Skies
will be mostly sunny with limited moisture and a stable air mass
over the area. Mostly clear skies tonight but rising dew points in
the S-SW low level flow will help hold min temperatures in the
Thursday-Sunday...Weak short wave trough along/offshore the Florida
east coast gets nudged east on Thursday then gets shunted S-SE and
deforms courtesy of a building mid level ridge extending from the NW
Caribbean across Florida, the SE seaboard/adjacent western Atlantic.
At the surface, the western Atlantic ridge will remain in control of
the local weather, producing a hot and increasingly humid SE to S
flow. A late day sea breeze collision near/west of Lake County could
produce a few showers, or possible a stray storm, over the far
western CWA Friday-Saturday, with drier mean conditions indicated
for Sunday, which would preclude even a low shower/storm threat.
Temps will be more typical of late May/early June, with maxes in the
M-U80s coast and L90s inland. Mins in the U60s inland, L70s coast.
Monday-Wednesday...Mid level ridge aloft will weaken/shift east out
into the Atlantic as a pair of fairly decent amplitude short wave
troughs move through the central and eastern CONUS. This causes the
low-mid level flow to veer to S-SW through a pretty decent layer on
Monday-Tuesday, giving the local area modest but respectable moisture
advection into the CWA for the first time in weeks as a weak frontal
boundary pushes toward (into?) north Florida by Tuesday. With the
mid level thermal cap and subsidence weakening some, the local air
mass should become a little more supportive for afternoon/evening
diurnally forced convection along local sea/lake breeze boundaries.
Went with 20 POPs Monday and 30 for Tuesday, and kept a 20 for next
Wednesday in deference to the ECM, which stalls the boundary to the
north, and leaves enough moisture to support a small shower/storm
.AVIATION...VFR next 24 hours. Light WSW flow this morning will
become southeasterly 10-15kt near the east coast this afternoon.
Winds diminishing after sunset.
Today/Tonight...Westerly flow 10-15kt early this morning will weaken
to 5-10kt through sunrise. Flow will become southeasterly 10-15 kt
near the coast this afternoon with ridge axis building in and sea
breeze circulation setting up near the coast. Seas 2-3 feet near
shore waters and up to 4 feet well offshore.
Thursday-Sunday...Atlantic ridge axis north of the CWA will keep the
local Atlantic MAOR under a moderate SE flow, which will freshen
late in the weekend. Seas generally 2-4FT Thursday-Friday with winds
10-15KT. As SE flow freshens to 15-20KT, seas will build as high as
5 to 6 feet well offshore this weekend.
.FIRE WEATHER...Another fire sensitive day. Afternoon RH values will
fall into the mid 30s for 2-3 hours well inland, while east coast
sea breeze will help low rh concerns near the coast. Winds will be
below 15 mph over inland sections.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 82 65 87 69 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 86 65 93 69 / 0 0 10 10
MLB 84 67 88 71 / 0 10 0 10
VRB 84 66 88 69 / 0 10 10 10
LEE 85 65 92 68 / 0 0 10 0
SFB 85 65 93 68 / 0 0 10 10
ORL 86 65 93 69 / 0 0 10 10
FPR 84 66 88 68 / 0 10 10 10
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...Cristaldi
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