FXUS62 KMLB 211431

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
930 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

Lcl WX pattern remains largely unchanged with a strong high pres
ridge over the W Atlc extending acrs the Deep South as the dominant
feature. Lcl wind profilers have shown a slight downtick in the sfc-
3KFT winds over the past 12hrs, but the E/SE component remains in
place with no sign of abating. If anything, ridging overhead has
increased as the 24hr RAOB trend shows the base of a sharp mid lvl
subsidence inversion has dropped from arnd H70 to H85 with PWat
values btwn 1.00-"1.25". Very dry air abv the inversion with RAP40
measuring avg dewpoint depressions arnd 25C thru the H85-H50 lyr.
Upstream analysis shows only more dry/stable air with H100-H70 mean
RH values btwn 50-60pct, H85-H70 lapse rates decreasing from 5.0-
5.5C/KM overhead to arnd 3.0C/KM over the nrn Bahamas.

Outside of a thin band of weak enhanced returns over the Gulf Stream
(hesitant to call them "showers"), lcl radar network is quiet.
Airmass will be too dry/suppressed to include precip in the fcst.
Steady onshore flow will generate a coastal/interior temp grad with
aftn maxes in the L80s east of I-95, M80s to the west...overall 5-
10F abv avg.


.AVIATION...Thru 22/12Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 21/18Z...coastal sites E/SE 7-11KTS...interior sites
5-8KTS. Btwn 21/18Z-21/24Z...coastal sites E/SE 9-13KTS with ocnl
G18-22KTS...interior sites E/SE 7-11KTS. Btwn 22/00Z-22/03Z...
coastal sites bcmg E/SE 8-12KTS...interior sites bcmg E/SE 5-8KTS.
Btwn 22/03Z-22/06Z...coastal sites bcmg E/SE 4-7KTS...interior sites
bcmg E/SE AOB 3KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 22/02Z...lcl cigs btwn FL035-050. Aft 22/07Z...N
of KISM-KTIX areas MVFR/lcl IFR vsbys in BR.


Marginal to poor boating conds this aftn as a strong high pres ridge
over the W Atlc maintains a gentle to moderate E/SE acrs the region.
Data buoys measuring 3-5FT seas with dominant pds 6-7sec, largely in
an easterly swell. Seas likely up to 6FT in the Gulf Stream.
Slightly tighter pgrad over south FL will generate stronger winds
south of Sebastian Inlet, while the E/SE wind component will
continue to place the Treasure Coast waters in the shadow of the nrn
Bahamas, resulting in lcly rough conditions. Small craft operators
should exercise caution.



Record warm minimum temps and the year set:

February 21 February 22 February 23

Daytona Beach 68-1989 69-2008 69-2013
Orlando Intl 68-1989 69-1945 69-2013
Sanford 66-2002 68-2008 70-2013
Melbourne 70-1989 69-2003 69-2008
Vero Beach 72-1961 73-1961 73-1961
Ft. Pierce 73-1961 73-1961 71-1979





Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Impact WX/Blog........Combs
WFO TBW Backup........Volkmer
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