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FXUS62 KMLB 211431
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
930 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Lcl WX pattern remains largely unchanged with a strong high pres
ridge over the W Atlc extending acrs the Deep South as the dominant
feature. Lcl wind profilers have shown a slight downtick in the sfc-
3KFT winds over the past 12hrs, but the E/SE component remains in
place with no sign of abating. If anything, ridging overhead has
increased as the 24hr RAOB trend shows the base of a sharp mid lvl
subsidence inversion has dropped from arnd H70 to H85 with PWat
values btwn 1.00-"1.25". Very dry air abv the inversion with RAP40
measuring avg dewpoint depressions arnd 25C thru the H85-H50 lyr.
Upstream analysis shows only more dry/stable air with H100-H70 mean
RH values btwn 50-60pct, H85-H70 lapse rates decreasing from 5.0-
5.5C/KM overhead to arnd 3.0C/KM over the nrn Bahamas.

Outside of a thin band of weak enhanced returns over the Gulf Stream
(hesitant to call them "showers"), lcl radar network is quiet.
Airmass will be too dry/suppressed to include precip in the fcst.
Steady onshore flow will generate a coastal/interior temp grad with
aftn maxes in the L80s east of I-95, M80s to the west...overall 5-
10F abv avg.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 22/12Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 21/18Z...coastal sites E/SE 7-11KTS...interior sites
5-8KTS. Btwn 21/18Z-21/24Z...coastal sites E/SE 9-13KTS with ocnl
G18-22KTS...interior sites E/SE 7-11KTS. Btwn 22/00Z-22/03Z...
coastal sites bcmg E/SE 8-12KTS...interior sites bcmg E/SE 5-8KTS.
Btwn 22/03Z-22/06Z...coastal sites bcmg E/SE 4-7KTS...interior sites
bcmg E/SE AOB 3KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 22/02Z...lcl cigs btwn FL035-050. Aft 22/07Z...N
of KISM-KTIX areas MVFR/lcl IFR vsbys in BR.

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal to poor boating conds this aftn as a strong high pres ridge
over the W Atlc maintains a gentle to moderate E/SE acrs the region.
Data buoys measuring 3-5FT seas with dominant pds 6-7sec, largely in
an easterly swell. Seas likely up to 6FT in the Gulf Stream.
Slightly tighter pgrad over south FL will generate stronger winds
south of Sebastian Inlet, while the E/SE wind component will
continue to place the Treasure Coast waters in the shadow of the nrn
Bahamas, resulting in lcly rough conditions. Small craft operators
should exercise caution.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record warm minimum temps and the year set:

February 21 February 22 February 23

Daytona Beach 68-1989 69-2008 69-2013
Orlando Intl 68-1989 69-1945 69-2013
Sanford 66-2002 68-2008 70-2013
Melbourne 70-1989 69-2003 69-2008
Vero Beach 72-1961 73-1961 73-1961
Ft. Pierce 73-1961 73-1961 71-1979

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Impact WX/Blog........Combs
WFO TBW Backup........Volkmer
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