FXUS62 KMLB 141420

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1020 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Profiler winds at the Cape show low level S/SW flow continues
across the area today, as ridge axis near Lake Okeechobee begins
to shift north. Any offshore component to the wind will weaken
enough to allow the east coast sea breeze to form, beginning along
the Treasure Coast toward mid-day and continuing farther north
through the rest of the afternoon. Morning soundings across
central Florida show a relatively moist airmass in place, with PW
values 1.8-1.9", and less drier air aloft then yesterday. This
should support scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage across
the area. HRRR/WRF runs indicate initial development along the
Treasure Coast and into Lake County early this afternoon, with
increasing coverage as sea breeze boundaries move inland. PoPs
range from 40-50 percent across much of the area, with likely rain
chances around 60 percent from Osceola county NNE across
Orange/Seminole and Volusia counties where low level boundaries
are favored to collide into late afternoon.

Storms will move slowly toward the northeast and should shift back
toward the Brevard/Volusia coast into this evening. A few stronger
storms will again be possible, with frequent lightning, strong
wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall the main
threats. Mostly to partly sunny skies to start the day, with highs
reaching the low 90s before convection and cloud cover increases
across the region into late afternoon. Forecast on track with no
changes planned.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue into late morning, with
tempo IFR/MVFR conditions in scattered showers/storms through the
afternoon. Convection will initially develop along the sea breeze
boundaries, with increasing coverage through mid to late
afternoon. Showers and storms will become numerous into late
afternoon and early evening from KMCO-KDAB where late day boundary
collisions are expected to occur.


.MARINE...S/SW winds around 10 knots will become S/SSE into the
afternoon hours as sea breeze forms and moves slowly inland.
Highest shower/thunderstorm chances near shore will be north of
Sebastian Inlet into this afternoon and evening as storms from the
mainland move toward the coast. Seas 1-2 feet.


No sites along the Saint Johns river are at or above Flood Stage.
However, Astor, Sanford and Lake Harney forecast points remain in
Action Stage. Deland remains just below Action stage and will
have to watch this area if heavy rainfall falls later today. Refer
to the latest Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB) for the latest stage
and forecast information.


DAB 91 74 89 74 / 60 40 40 30
MCO 92 74 92 75 / 60 50 40 30
MLB 90 75 90 77 / 40 30 20 10
VRB 90 73 90 75 / 30 20 20 10
LEE 91 75 92 76 / 50 30 30 30
SFB 92 75 93 75 / 60 50 40 30
ORL 92 76 93 75 / 60 50 40 30
FPR 90 73 90 74 / 30 20 20 10




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