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FXUS62 KMLB 191950
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
350 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Thru tonight...An increase in Atlc moisture has brought noticeably
higher dewpoints/humidities to the coast while interior sections
enjoy much lower humidity though temperatures are several degrees
warmer with little breeze. This increase in moisture combined with
the east coast sea breeze boundary has sparked isolated showers
and even some lightning around Lake Okeechobee. The showers will
continue to develop inland with the sea breeze next few hours with
a collision west of the Sumter/Lake line which may generate a
narrow band of showers early this eve. But with loss of daytime
heating, activity over land will diminish quickly. Isolated Atlc
showers should persist and may cross the Martin coast overnight.

Mon...High pressure ridge axis remains just north of the area
which will continue the onshore (east-southeast) flow. The best
chance for a few showers will be over southern sections across
Treasure coast/Okeechobee counties. Max temps will be above normal
over the interior in the low 90s, more seasonable mid 80s at the
coast.

Tuesday-Saturday...Large, stacked ridge develops over the Deep South
on Tuesday, leading to a prolonged period of warm and dry weather
for the foreseeable future. As of now, the forecast carries no
mentionable PoPs with PWATs hovering just above 1.00" this week.
Depending on the grip of the Atlantic high, light and brief showers
may push onshore from the marine zones which may necessitate adding
a slight chance later this week, but confidence too low to include
a mention now.

The warm and dry airmass over the region will leave temperatures
above average, with interior sites climbing into the low to mid 90s
each afternoon this week; along the coast slightly cooler in the
upper 80s. Temp trend is upward, so may see an increase in values
before the holiday weekend, with the chance for a few low-end
record highs. Overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR. Isold SHRA will diminish by 00Z or so. Breezy east
winds near 15 knots behind the sea breeze this afternoon at
coastal terminals will decrease with sunset. On Monday, E/SE winds
5-10 knots except a little stronger behind the sea breeze along
the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight/Mon...Favorable boating conditions will continue with East
to Southeast winds 10 knots and seas dropping to 2 ft Monday
except 3 ft well offshore.

Extended...High pressure building across GA/AL will lead to benign
weather the next several days, producing good conditions in the
Atlantic waters. Winds hover at 5-10 kts, varying E to SE through
the period. Only minor fluctuations in seas, as wave height
generally remains from 2-3 ft. Strengthening ridge mid to late this
week increases winds up to 15 kts, building Gulf Stream waters to 5
ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Protracted period of dry weather will cause ERC
values to continue to rise, however the lowest RH values guidance is
showing is lower 40s across Lake County. Speed of onshore wind flow
is expected to remain below critical levels.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 69 87 69 89 / 10 20 10 0
MCO 69 91 69 92 / 10 20 10 0
MLB 71 86 72 86 / 10 20 0 0
VRB 69 87 69 87 / 10 20 10 0
LEE 71 92 71 94 / 20 10 10 10
SFB 69 91 69 92 / 10 20 10 0
ORL 70 91 69 92 / 10 20 10 0
FPR 69 87 69 86 / 10 20 10 0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Smith
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