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FXUS62 KMLB 160930
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
430 AM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...A broad surface ridge initially over much of
the FL peninsula early today will slide southward over the next
24H. Seasonally warm SW flow will develop over the area with some
higher clouds sliding by during the day. Wind speed should be
sufficient enough to preclude an onshore sea breeze, and
temperatures will warm to above normal levels around 78 to 81
degrees under mostly sunny skies. Tonight: SW winds will abate
shortly after nightfall, leaving partly cloudy skies and mild
temperatures falling into the U50s to L60s. Some patchy fog/mist
will develop by daybreak Sunday in lower spots and drainages
mainly.

Sun-Mon night...Second part of the weekend will remain under the
suppression of a high pressure over the Atlantic and its western
ridge over the Florida peninsula but this will shift eastward Sun
night. Patchy fog could be possible early Sun morning across parts
of the forecast area, dissipating quickly after sunrise. Otherwise,
weather conditions will be relatively quiet with partly cloudy skies
and no rain chances. An area of low pressure over southeast U.S. Sun
night, will lift to the northeast and reach the mid-Atlantic waters
Mon morning. The associated cold front will remain to the north of
the peninsula and the ridge to our east will turn the wind flow from
the southwest. With it, Caribbean and Gulf moisture will stream
towards the peninsula, increasing PWAT values to an inch and a half
on Monday. But coverage should remain isolated through Monday night.
Temperatures will be almost 10 degrees warmer than normal (which
should be mid 70s during daytime and lower 50s at night) as we
expect highs to reach the mid 80s on Sun and Mon. Lows will drop to
just mid to upper 60s Sun night and Mon night.

Tue-Fri...By Tue morning, the remnants of the cold front will be
stretching from the Atlantic towards the local area, keeping limited
moisture over east central FL and isolated showers. For the rest of
the week, a low- to upper-levels high pressure will remain generally
to our east, over the Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico. At the
surface, the edge of the ridge will be over the local area, bringing
isolated showers from time to time. The main story will be the warm
temperatures that we are expecting for most of the work week. Highs
will be reaching the lower to mid 80s during the day while lows will
only drop the mid 60s at night.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR areawide into Sunday. Some patchy mist/fog will
be present at some sites through this morning at 14Z.
Redevelopment of light fog once again possible tonight through
17/14z.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight...Proximity of high pressure will bring
favorable marine conditions with seas around 2-3 ft near the
coast and 3-4 ft well offshore with some swell component. Winds
of 10 kt or less expected.


Sun-Mon night...Gentle to moderate breezes are forecast on Sunday,
decreasing to 5 to 10 knots on Monday. Seas 2-3 feet on both days.

Tue-Wed...High pressure over the Atlantic and ridge stretching
towards the local waters will keep gentle to moderate southeast to
south breezes and seas of 3-4 ft across the nearshore while 4 to 6
feet for the offshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 76 60 80 65 / 0 10 0 10
MCO 80 63 84 67 / 0 10 0 10
MLB 80 62 80 69 / 0 10 0 10
VRB 80 60 82 69 / 0 10 0 10
LEE 77 63 82 68 / 0 10 10 10
SFB 79 62 83 67 / 0 10 0 10
ORL 80 64 83 68 / 0 10 0 10
FPR 80 59 81 68 / 0 10 0 10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Negron
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