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FXUS62 KMLB 170742
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
342 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Today-Tonight...Similar setup today as previously this week with
ridge axis still bisecting the peninsula. Southeasterly flow will
favor yet again the east coast sea breeze, leading to a collision
with the west coast breeze over the interior. Prior to noon,
isolated showers and storms over the Atlantic waters may push
onshore to the southern Treasure Coast by mid morning before the
sea breeze ramps up. Coverage of precip will be scarce for the
northern coastline, with isolated to scattered storm development
initiating along I-95 in the early afternoon. Storms will push
inland, with additional development likely along boundary
collisions through sunset. Activity should subside by dusk,
although lingering isolated storms over Lake/western Orange may
last through midnight. Weak steering flow will again lead to slow
storm motion, aiding in the potential for heavy downpours and
localized flooding. Additional storm threats today will be
frequent lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 50 mph.

Highs will max out in the lower 90s across the south/coastal sites,
mid to upper 90s over the interior. Factoring in high dewpoints,
heat index values will reach the low 100s this afternoon,
approaching 106/107 in portions of Lake and Volusia counties during
peak afternoon heating. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s, with
more potential warm min records in store.

Thu-Sat...Persistence based forecast will be continued each day
with the subtropical western Atlc ridge remaining across central
FL. Inland areas will be favored for higher pcpn chcs due to
afternoon boundary collisions and weakly onshore component
steering level winds. A couple of weak upr disturbances moving
across GA/N FL Thu and into Fri wl partially erode influence of
the local ridge to the north of the local area, but not enough to
significantly affect PoP from N-S attm. Expect highs in the L-M
90s and lows in the Mid 70s. with 20-30 PoP coastal Co's and
35-45 pct inland.

Next Week...Looking ahead for any changes to forecast regime,
which is typically dependent on surface ridge placement this time
of year, shows only subtle hints as weakening of the Western Atlc
ridge by the middle of next week. Positioning across central FL
early in the week will keep a coastal -vs- inland PoP split with
deep moisture and the weak wind environment continuing to favor
inland areas for best chcs of daily measurable rains. A broader
and fuller latitude upper wave advertised to enter the SE states
and N Gulf by Wed will help raise PoP areawide toward the end of
the forecast period at midweek, and likely continuing toward the
end of the work week as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR. Calm winds at nearly all sites will return to S/SE by
daybreak before east coast sea breeze development around 17Z.
Iso/sct SHRA/TSRA pushing onshore to KVRB-KSUA through mid morning
ahead of afternoon breeze development. SE flow will favor east coast
breeze again today, leading to sct TSRA for interior terminals after
18Z, with activity wrapping up 00-02Z for most sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions will continue due to
proximity of the sfc ridge axis over the Atlantic waters. SE winds 5-
10 kts becoming 10-15 kts this afternoon with 1-2 ft seas becoming 2-
3 ft north of Sebastian Inlet overnight. Slight chance of afternoon
thunderstorms, with light sprinkles this morning across the southern
waters.Thu-Sat...Favorable winds and seas with dominant surface
ridge over the marine area. Winds largely 8-13 kts or less with
seas 1-3 ft.

Extended...Early next week shows continuation of favorable open
water conditions with S-SE winds becoming onshore in the
afternoon. Seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 75 93 75 / 20 20 30 10
MCO 94 75 95 75 / 50 20 40 20
MLB 90 76 91 76 / 30 20 20 10
VRB 91 74 92 74 / 30 20 20 20
LEE 95 76 96 76 / 50 30 40 20
SFB 94 76 96 76 / 40 20 40 20
ORL 94 76 95 76 / 50 20 40 20
FPR 91 74 92 73 / 30 20 30 20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM....Pendergrast
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