Location:  
MeteoStar


FXUS62 KMLB 270752
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
350 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Sunny, Dry and Hot this Memorial Day Weekend...

Today-Tonight...Weak sfc/low lvl high pres ridge draped over the FL
peninsula this mrng is maintaining a dry/stable airmass. Slightly
higher moisture than 24hrs ago as the 27/00Z KXMR/KJAX RAOBs
revealed PWat values in the 0.50"-0.75" range, while RAP40 shows the
bulk of the driest post frontal air has pushed into the W Atlc. Much
higher moisture over south FL with KMFL/KEYW RAOBs measuring PWat
btwn 1.75"-2.00" due to the presence of a stalled/dissipating
frontal boundary. Even so, with high pres overhead, this moisture
has no prospect of working its way northward today or tonight. With
avg H85-H50 dewpoint depressions over central FL still running btwn
25-30C and a crushing subsidence inversion in the H90-H70 lyr, fcst
will remain dry.

Like Fri, expect only a few scraps of diurnal stratocu...otherwise
skies will be clear. Light srly flow will push temps into the
U80s/L90s along the coast, L/M90s over the interior. Baggy sfc/low
lvl pgrad will remain in place as the ridge pushes into the FL
peninsula. This combo of factors will allow the east coast sea
breeze to form by late mrng and push well inland by sunset. Light
S/SW winds at daybreak, bcmg E/SE with the passage of the sea
breeze. Light S/SW flow dvlpg arnd midnight as the land breeze
couplet dvlps, which should keep min temps in the M/U60s.

Sunday...500 mb ridge will build from the ern Gulf over central FL
by Sunday evening. At the surface, high pressure will extend from
the Atlantic across south FL. Westerly low level flow and a dry
airmass will allow highs to be very warm from the lower 90s near the
east coast to the mid 90s across the interior.

Monday...Mid level ridge over central FL in the morning will move
east into the Atlantic in the afternoon. Westerly low level winds
will continue with a very dry airmass in the H8-H3 layer. The east
coast sea breeze will move slowly inland through the late afternoon
and early evening. It will be hot with high temperatures again in
the lower 90s near the east coast and mid 90s for the interior.

Tuesday...As the mid level ridge shifts gradually offshore into Tue
afternoon a weak shortwave will approach the southeast states into
late afternoon. At the surface, light southerly winds are forecast
in the morning becoming southeast in the afternoon as the east coast
sea breeze moves inland. Models indicate enough low level moistening
to continue a low mid to late afternoon afternoon shower/
thunderstorm chance across the interior with late day sea breeze
interactions expected across the nrn interior zones. Highs lower 90s
coast to mid 90s interior.

Wed-Sat...The mid level ridge east of the area on Wed will be
displaced south and east through late week as a more zonal mid level
flow pattern develops over east central FL. At the surface, high
pressure across the Atlc should keep a south to southeast low level
wind flow regime across the area. Models continue to gradually
increase moisture levels into late week and the early part of the
weekend with shower/thunderstorm chances generally in the 20-40
percent range Wed increasing to 40-50 percent into late week. The
inland moving east coast sea breeze should focus much of the late
afternoon coverage across the interior each afternoon. Highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 coast to 91 to 94 degrees across the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
Thru 28/12Z.
Sfc Winds: Coastal sites...thru 27/14Z S/SW 3-5KTS. Btwn 27/14Z-
27/17Z bcmg E/SE 8-12KTS. Btwn 28/00Z-28/03Z bcmg S/SE 3-5KTS. Btwn
28/03Z-23/06Z...bcmg S/SW 3-5KTS.
Interior sites...thru 26/14Z S/SW AOB 3KTS. Btwn 27/14Z-
27/17Z W/NW 3-6KTS. Btwn 27/14Z-27/17Z W/SW 6-9KTS. Btwn 27/20Z-
27/23Z bcmg E/SE 7-11KTS. Btwn 27/01Z-27/04Z bcmg S/SW 3-5KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: VFR all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conds as a sfc ridge centered over
the FL peninsula builds into the W Atlc and maintains a loose pgrad
acrs the area. Light to gentle S/SW breeze thru mid mrng, bcmg S\SE
by midday with the formation of the east coast sea breeze, then S/SW
aft midnight as the land breeze couplet forms. Seas AOB 2FT
nearshore and 2-3FT offshore.

Sunday-Monday...The holiday weekend boating forecast looks good with
prevailing offshore flow becoming onshore near the east coast each
afternoon and evening with the east coast sea breeze. Seas will
average 1 to 2 ft near shore and up to 2-3 ft well offshore.

Tue-Wed...S/SE flow to around 10 knots into mid week and seas to 2-3
ft are expected. Isolated storms may affect the near shore waters by
Wed afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Dry air has modified slightly along the Space/Treasure Coast
and arnd Lake-O with sfc dewpoints in the U60s to L70s...but holding
fast over the interior north of SR-60 with dewpoints still in the
U50s/L60s. Warm day on tap with near full sun and light srly
winds...max temps in the L/M90s will generate min RH values blo 35
pct for 4-6hrs along and north of the I-4 Corridor for 4-6hrs.
Coastal counties will remain abv 35pct as the east coast sea breeze
is expected to form by late morning and push well inland.

Orange/Seminole counties both have ERC's high enough to trigger an
RFW, but Osceola/Lake remain blo threshold. Will issue an RFW for
Seminole/Orange today and pull Osceola/Lake out of the watch.

Sunday...Min RHs will drop to 30 to 35 percent across the interior.
Marginal duration of low RH is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 86 67 93 69 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 94 63 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 89 67 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 90 67 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 94 63 91 74 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 93 63 93 74 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 94 63 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 90 67 94 68 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
Orange-Seminole.

AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Bragaw
LONG TERM....Volkmer
Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page