FXUS62 KMLB 090056
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
856 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020
Current-Overnight...Some ISOLD-SCT convection in the NWRLY flow
aloft traveling across Volusia and the adjacent coastal waters with
ample moisture and subtle impulses embedded in the flow, though
diurnal heating is ending and expect only an ISOLD threat into late
evening for Volusia and perhaps north Brevard. The local HRRR is a
bit optimistic for some additional coverage across the coastal
waters into late tonight. Remaining mostly dry everywhere else over
land. Cloud cover will diminish through the night. Winds light and
variable under 5 mph. Temperatures overnight will settle into the L-
Thursday...Previous...Weak low pressure will be along the North
Carolina coast with the Atlantic subtropical ridge axis remaining
across south FL. These two features will maintain a west to
southwest flow pattern across central FL. The stout west flow will
at least delay the east coast sea breeze formation and produce
slightly above normal temperatures in the low to mid 90s. The
deepest moisture is forecast to shift east of the area but
precipitable water values remain high, close to 2 inches. Rain
chances are 40-50 percent across the area, which is around
climatological average for early July.
Temperatures aloft look warm with -5C to -6C at 500 mb and
unimpressive lapse rates. However, forecast model soundings show
some drier air aloft which should promote additional gustiness. A
few strong storms will be possible especially where boundary
collisions occur (outflow and sea/lake breezes). Lightning
strikes will be the primary threat. Heavy rainfall will occur but
westerly steering flow around 20 knots should keep storms moving
so accumulations should remain low.
.AVIATION...Diminishing convection but will need to watch KDAB, KTIX
thru the evening. Thinning clouds overnight. Winds light/variable to
near calm. SCT shra/tsra again on Thu, especially in the afternoon.
Tempo MVFR (ISOLD IFR) in storms.
.MARINE...Overnight...Models hint at enough instability, moisture,
and upper-level features around to keep SCT showers/storms in the
forecast for much of the evening/overnight. WRLY flow (WSW-WNW) AOB
15 kts. Seas 1-2 ft near shore and 2-3 ft offshore. Winds/seas
locally higher invof storms.
Thu...Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of the local waters,
across south FL, with W/SW wind flow dominating. Onshore flow should
develop near the coast in the afternoon behind the sea breeze but
formation could be quite late and even not at all if the offshore
flow is too strong. Wind speeds forecast to remain 15 knots or less
with seas 1-2 ft near shore and 2-3 ft offshore.
Main threat to boaters will continue to be scattered to numerous
offshore moving storms producing frequent lightning strikes and
gusty winds, mainly from mid afternoon through early evening.
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