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FXUS64 KMOB 190951
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
451 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...A back door cold front
will move east to west across the area today. This will bring an
increase in clouds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
In addition, the front will also bring a welcome relief from the
very hot temps as the easterly flow behind the front brings a
cooler and drier airmass into the area. The higher rain chances
will be late this morning into the afternoon across the western
half of the area. However, rainfall amounts will be light and will
not help the ongoing drought. Highs today will be "only" be in
the upper 80s to around 90. /13


.SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...A mid level ridge
of high pressure will shift eastward and strengthen over much of
Alabama, Georgia, and the adjacent Carolinas on Friday, while a
rather strong surface ridge of high pressure continues to extend
across the Eastern Seaboard and adjacent western Atlantic. A few
showers will be possible over our far southwest zones along a
residual axis of moisture Friday morning. Deep layer moisture will
otherwise continue to advance west of our area through Friday
afternoon, while a much drier and more subsident airmass settles
over the region underneath the building ridge aloft. Easterly
surface flow will persist over the forecast area Friday on the
southwestern periphery of the surface ridge extending across the
Eastern Seaboard and southeastern states. Although the slightly
cooler temperatures do continue with the easterly surface flow, we
have trended high temperatures toward the warmest guidance given
the building ridge aloft. Highs on Friday are forecast to range in
the upper 80s to around 90 degrees over most of our region. Mostly
clear and dry conditions are anticipated on Friday night, and with
a slightly drier surface airmass, we expect cooler low temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s over interior areas, with readings ranging
from 70-75 along the immediate coast.

The mid level ridge of high pressure will continue to extend
across much of the Deep South and the southeastern states on
Saturday, while the surface ridge of high pressure remains
oriented from the western Atlantic to the Eastern Seaboard and
southeastern states. A continued subsident and dry deep layer
airmass will remain in place over our forecast area with this
pattern and will keep a mostly sunny and dry forecast intact.
Temperatures should once again range from the upper 80s to lower
90s over most of the region. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions
will continue into Saturday night, with lows once again forecast
to range in the mid to upper 60s over most areas, except 70-75
along the immediate coast and beaches.

A persistent moderate easterly to southeasterly flow, increasing
swell with 6-7 second periods, and increasing tidal ranges with
tides outgoing during the day will support a high risk of rip
currents along our local beaches Friday through Sunday. /21


.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The extended forecast
pattern will continue to support above normal temperatures and
little in the way of rainfall across our region. An upper level
ridge of high pressure will continue to stretch across the north
central Gulf Coast late this weekend through the middle of next
week. A shortwave trough rounding the top of the ridge axis may
send a weak frontal boundary toward our northwestern and northern
zones Monday into Tuesday, but this feature may stall and/or
become diffuse before reaching our area. General indications are
that plentiful subsidence and a lack of deep moisture will remain
in place over our area underneath the ridge aloft, and this
pattern should preclude much in the way of convective development,
other than perhaps isolated showers and thunderstorms along the
seabreeze. Temperatures should continue to trend upward through
early to mid next week, with highs looking to return back into the
lower to mid 90s inland and around 90 near the coast. /21

&&

.MARINE...A light northerly flow will shift to easterly this
afternoon as a cold front moves east to west across the area. A
moderate to occasionally strong easterly flow will the continue
into at least the early part of the weekend as a strong ridge of
high pressure settles over the eastern seaboard and southeastern
states. /13


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 90 70 88 69 90 68 90 69 / 50 20 10 0 10 0 10 0
Pensacola 87 72 88 72 88 72 89 71 / 40 10 10 10 0 10 10 0
Destin 86 72 87 73 88 73 87 74 / 20 10 10 10 0 10 10 0
Evergreen 90 67 89 65 90 66 92 65 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
Waynesboro 89 66 88 65 89 65 91 67 / 50 10 10 0 10 0 10 0
Camden 90 66 89 65 90 65 92 66 / 20 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 89 65 89 66 90 65 91 64 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Sunday evening
for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Sunday evening
for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
Saturday for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$

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