FXUS64 KMOB 210430 AAC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1130 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
06Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the
next 24 hours. Patchy MVFR fog will be possible early Tuesday
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 856 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/
DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.
UPDATE...The last of the isolated late afternoon and early
evening convection that was primarily associated with the sea
breeze and several outflow boundaries, is finally dissipating.
Residual clouds, mainly upper level blowoff, will persist across
the region through the remainder of the evening, with skies
clearing overnight. As the skies clear late and we get some slight
radiational cooling, look for patchy fog to develop over some of
the area. Otherwise, forecast on track with lows tonight falling
into the mid and upper 60s inland and lower 70s at the coast.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/
NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms that developed along the
seabreeze circulation this afternoon will quickly diminish early
this evening. Following storm dissipation, expect mostly clear and
warm conditions through the remainder of the night. Some patchy fog
is again possible, primarily across inland southeast Mississippi,
inland south Alabama, and inland western Florida Panhandle.
Any morning fog should mix out quickly in the morning with
seasonably very warm and dry weather expected Tuesday. An upper
level ridge of high pressure will build over the entire region.
Surface high pressure to the east will keep southerly low level flow
and seasonably high humidity in place. The additional subsidence
aloft should limit any shower and thunderstorm coverage below
mentionable levels. High temperatures should reach into the middle
80s along the coast, to the lower 90s inland. /JLH
SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...
High pressure both surface and aloft will strengthen over the Deep
South through midweek. This will suppress any convective development
and support above average temperatures. High temperatures will range
from around 90 degrees near the coast, to the middle 90s inland. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 60s inland, to lower 70s
along the coast. /JLH
LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...
The strong upper ridge will be centered over the north central Gulf
Coast by the end of this week and remain in place through next
weekend. Dry weather will persist through the weekend with a
strong subsidence inversion in place. Unseasonably hot
temperatures are expected with highs in the lower 90s in coastal
areas, to around 100 degrees inland. Humidity levels should lower
each afternoon with strong deep mixing. This should help to keep
heat indices below advisory levels through the weekend, but this
will be something to monitor closely over the next several days.
Moderate southeasterly to southerly flow and a persistent fetch will
result in light to moderate seas through the end of this week.
Winds and seas should subside by next weekend as high pressure
shifts overhead. Dry weather is expected through the forecast
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