FXUS64 KMOB 171212 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
712 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...Mostly VFR conditions through 18.12z. Some patchy
fog will be possible near sunrise Thu morning. Winds will be
light and variable early today becoming south to southwest 4 to 8
kts through early this evening then light and variable through
18.12z. 32/ee


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 455 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...SFC to H5 ridge of high
pressure will settle over the north central Gulf coast region
today and tonight leading to drier conditions across the forecast
area in the near term. Latest model soundings support this
reasoning with PWATS lowering to around 1.30 inches or slightly
lower for most locations in the forecast area with the exception
of the far northwest part where better residual moisture from the
remnants of Barry continues to shift northward. With this pattern
little to no rain is expected across the forecast area today with
maybe an isolated shower or two over extreme northern sections by
late afternoon. Surface dewpoint temps are expected to lower to
the mid to upper 60s over much of the eastern half of the forecast
area this afternoon, well inland from the coast, with surface
temps climbing to the mid to upper 90s in these locations, also.
This pattern is a reflection of the better subsidence in the
boundary layer as the deep ridge of high pressure settles over the
region. Some patchy fog will also be possible early this morning
mainly well inland from the coast with more development near
sunrise Thu morning. Highs today will range from the lower to
middle 90s to the west inland from the coast, mid to upper 90s to
the east inland from the coast and the upper 80s to lower 90s near
the immediate coast. Lows tonight will range from the middle 70s
for most inland areas and the upper 70s to near 80 along the
immediate coast. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...Mid-level ridge
builds over the deep south Thursday into early Friday, but by late
Friday through Friday night a plume of higher environmental
moisture along with an inverted mid-level trof feature begins to
migrate westward across the region. This suggests a gradual
increase in shower/storm chances with each day. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms expected on Thursday, but increase to
good chance and even low end likely PoPs over northeastern zones
on Friday afternoon. Diurnal pattern is expected with most of the
showers and storms dissipating by mid evening each day. Away from
rain areas, inland daytime highs range from the low to mid 90s
Thursday and then low to mid 90s on Friday. Upper 80s to lower 90s
expected closer to the beaches. Heat indices each day range 101
to 107. Isolated occurrences of a few degrees higher possible. Low
temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s inland and mid to
upper 70s at the coast. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Little change in the
pattern from the short term on Saturday, then the upper ridging to
the north weakens Sunday through Tuesday while surface ridging
slips south into the Gulf with a frontal boundary drifting south
into the souther states for the mid and late parts of the long
term period. With abundant moisture remaining in place, this will
maintain an unsettled pattern through the long term period with
scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms. Again this
convective pattern will be mostly diurnal. Daytime highs will
range from near normal to a few degrees above normal each day,
primarily in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows several degrees
above normal, in the low to mid 70s inland and mid to upper 70s
coastal. 12/DS

MARINE...High pressure will continue to build west over the eastern
and north central Gulf through the week leading to a light southerly
wind flow over the marine area through much of the week. The highest
winds and seas will occur over the near shore waters out to 20 nm
including inland bays and sounds during the afternoon and early
evening hours due to afternoon heating inland. 32/EE




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