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FXUS64 KMOB 191754
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1254 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/18Z issuance...VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
the region through the forecast period. Broken mid and high level
clouds through most of the period, with a few scattered low level
cumulus this afternoon. Very isolated SHRA/TSRA may develop around
portions of the area late this afternoon, but coverage will be limited
and confidence remains low enough to preclude mention in the local
TAFs. Light winds are generally expected through the period, but
winds may pick up to around 10 knots from the south to southwest
near the coast this afternoon. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the
region today with scattered to broken mid and high level clouds,
and a few cumulus. Isolated SHRA/TSRA may develop around portions
of the area this afternoon but coverage will be limited and
confidence remains low enough to preclude mention in the local
TAFs. Light winds are generally expected through the period, but
winds may pick up to around 10 knots from the south to southwest
near the coast this afternoon. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 439 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...A mid level ridge of high
pressure will remain positioned over much of AL, GA, and FL today.
Weak surface ridging is expected to extend from southeast LA and
northward through much of MS and into western TN today, while a weak
surface trough axis meanwhile stretches southwestward from the
Carolinas to the central Gulf Coast. A moist airmass will remain in
place across our forecast area today underneath the mid level ridge,
with precipitable water values ranging from 1.8" over our eastern
CWA to as high as 2.0" to 2.1" over southeast MS. The combination of
the moist airmass, plentiful instability, and weak convergence along
the surface trough axis/seabreeze should result in the development
of a few showers and thunderstorms today. The coverage will be
limited due to the ridge aloft over the central and eastern zones,
but may be locally scattered over portions of southeast MS where
moisture will be deeper on the western periphery of the ridge. The
combination of the ridge aloft and enhanced low level thermal
ridging along the surface trough axis should allow for high
temperatures in the lower to mid 90s over much of the region.
Maximum heat indices should reach the upper 90s to around 103.
Convection should be diminished by early evening and will keep POPs
below mentionable levels after 7 PM. Another seasonably warm and
humid night can otherwise be expected. /21

SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...An upper ridge
over the area gradually weakens and shifts southward as and upper
trough develops across the plains. Shortwaves ejecting out of the
upper trough and moving eastward around the northern edge of the
upper ridge will bring increasing chances for rain by Thursday.
The passing upper waves will combine with plenty of deep layer
moisture and daytime heating to bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms back into the forecast by Thursday afternoon. Heat
index values will top out in the 100-104 range in most areas each
afternoon. /13

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...A broad upper trough will
remain over the southeast on Friday as the plains system lifts
out. This will maintain the chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The trough lifts out on Saturday with upper ridging
building back over the area through Monday. This will return the
area to a more typical isolated to low-end scattered diurnal pop
pattern. Highs will remain in the low 90s with heat index values
in the 100-105 range each day. /13

MARINE...Weak surface ridging will extend across the eastern and
northern Gulf of Mexico through early next week. This pattern will
result in a general light to moderate onshore flow through Monday.
/21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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