FXUS64 KMOB 250441 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1141 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


06Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. /13


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1019 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Dry northwest flow aloft will persist through the night
in the wake of the upper level low and associated trough moving
across the eastern states. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
and dry conditions will prevail overnight. Patchy fog still looks
possible late, especially across southeast MS and interior
southwest AL. Overnight lows still look reasonable, but made
adjustments to hourly temperatures to match quicker cooling than
expected in some areas. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Low pressure over the
Southeast lifts north up the Atlantic coast through the near term,
taking the wraparound clouds and sprinkles with it and leaving our
area mostly clear overnight tonight. Light north winds continue
across our area between the departing low to our northeast and
weak high pressure to our west. Aloft, flow becomes more zonal as
another upper trough digs into the central Plains. No rain
expected Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies and high temps in the
upper 70s to around 80 degrees. /49

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...An upper
level closed low pressure system over northeast Oklahoma and
southeast Kansas Wednesday evening will pass over the northern
portions of Mississippi and Alabama on Thursday, with 500mb core
temperatures near -20C. This low will then lift northeast Thursday
night and get absorbed along the eastern periphery of a large
upper trough over the eastern conus. A surface low is expected to
form across Louisiana by Wednesday evening, and is forecast to
track eastward across the central portions of Mississippi and
Alabama from midnight Wednesday through Thursday afternoon. It
will be dry Thursday night.

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected to move into southeast Mississippi and inland southwest
Alabama Wednesday night after midnight, followed by scattered to
numerous showers and a chance of thunderstoms on Thursday. The
precipitation is forecast to move east of the area by late
Thursday afternoon. A few of the storms could become strong over
the interior areas with hail to one-half inch in diameter

A fast moving shortwave on the heels of the first low will exit
the southern plains late Thursday night into Friday morning, and
swing east over the northern gulf coast Friday and Friday night.
This system will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to much of the forecast area on Friday, followed by
dry conditions Friday night. Total precipitation from the
combination of the two systems is expected to range from one-
quarter to one-half inch north of I-10, possibly up to one inch
locally, with less then one-quarter of an inch south of I-10. /22

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...The upper level trough
over the eastern conus will finally move east over the western
Atlantic early next week, followed by a medium amplified upper
level ridge building in from the west. The ridge will extend from
the northern gulf to southeast Canada on Monday, and remain over
the southeast region through the remainder of the long term.
Strong surface high pressure will build in from the west over the
weekend, keeping the area rain-free Saturday through Monday
afternoon. A southeasterly low level return flow will set up
across the region late Monday night through Tuesday as the center
of the surface highs moves over the western Atlantic. This should
bring light isolated to low-end showers back into the western
portions of the forecast area Monday night and Tuesday. /22

MARINE...Light to moderate north winds continue tonight and
Wednesday before shifting to westerly Wednesday night ahead of an
approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
along and ahead of the front Thursday, primarily near the coast
and over area bays and sounds. Light to moderate offshore flow
returns in the wake of the front Thursday night and Friday before
strengthening into the weekend as high pressure to our west is
reinforced. Seas remain around 1 to 2 feet through much of the
period, except Friday night into Saturday when they build to
around 3 to 4 feet in response to the strengthening offshore flow.




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