FXUS64 KMOB 042203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN
MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND IS NOW SOMEWHERE ALONG OR JUST
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH 0.5 TO 1.5 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS WIDESPREAD. THE RAINFALL HAS ALREADY ENDED ACROSS MOST
OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING AT THOSE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY
OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AS
WELL AS THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE RAINS WILL BE
ENDING...EXPECT THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES...AND EVEN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY
OVER EASTERN ZONES. WITH THIS...AND THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLEARING SKIES...BUT
CONTINUED NW-N FLOW AND CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY AS WELL. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS LONG TERM PERIOD AS WE WILL WAIT AND SEE ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF NEXT WEEKS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING FOR ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS TIME PCPN-FREE...TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IT APPEARS WITH THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS THAT THE IMPACT ON THE FCST
AREA COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT AND MORE LONG LASTING THAN PREVIOUS
FCST CALLED FOR...BUT AS WE ARE STILL TALKING 4 OR 5 DAYS OUT SO
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (18Z/00Z ISSUANCES)...LOW STATUS AND LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING CLEARING OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST. /32

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BUILD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. A MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH
MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR LATER TONIGHT. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COOL AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LOW
ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH DURATION TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 38 56 34 58 / 10 05 05 00
PENSACOLA 43 58 39 63 / 30 10 05 00
DESTIN 48 60 41 60 / 50 10 05 00
EVERGREEN 38 55 31 59 / 30 05 05 00
WAYNESBORO 33 52 28 58 / 10 05 05 00
CAMDEN 35 54 30 59 / 10 05 05 00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY.

&&

&&

$$










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