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FXUS63 KMPX 250858
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
358 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Light snow is struggling to push into the area this morning.
Reports and observations suggest the snow is rather patchy and
light enough to be not producing much, if any accumulation. Some
organization is expected to occur later this morning across
southern MN and build northeast into WI during the afternoon.
However, the long trend towards a less than impressive event
continues with an inch or two across southern Minnesota.

A second local maximum will occur downwind Lake Mille Lacs where a
band of lake effect snow is likely to develop this morning and
persist into the evening. Delta-Ts from water temps to 850 mb are
extreme (possibly as high as 25C if water temps in the 50s are
accurate) and the moist, mixed boundary layer extends well into
the DGZ. Tough to say how heavy and well organized it will get
since the lake is very small by lake effect standards, but the
extreme thermal profile and light wind could allow robust,
possibly convective snow showers near the lake. Lighter lake
effect snow may extend as far southeast as Mora as northwest winds
increase slightly later in the day.

The snow will wind down this evening area wide and skies will
clear some tonight. Temperatures will remain quite cold through
Monday with more record cold highs expected at all the climate
sites.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Tuesday morning will be the last grasp for the record October cold.
Skies will clear out Monday night and radiational cooling should
help temperatures drop into the single digits for most locations and
lower teens for inner metro. After the cold start high temperatures
will rebound fairly quick into the mid to upper 30s and mostly sunny
skies. Beyond Tuesday, the ensembles continue to show support for a
quasi-zonal flow mid-week with ridging building in next weekend.
This will help temperatures moderate with highs in the upper
30s/lower 40s Wednesday and Thursday and in the upper 40s by
Saturday. The trade off will be limited precipitation chances with
no measurable rain/snow expected in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Snow looks to gradually spread eastward across the area overnight.
KRWF and KMKT will have the highest chance of seeing IFR
visibility, with MVFR more likely at the other sites. Mainly MVFR
ceilings are expected, although KMKT could dip to IFR on Sunday
morning when the snow is falling moderately. North/northeast winds
under 10 knots prevail through the period.

KMSP...Snow is expected to be very light overnight, with
visibility down to 2SM possible after daybreak Sunday. Overnight
accumulations look to be around a few tenths of an inch, with
around a half inch expected during the day Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR early, then VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G20 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind WSW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for Martin.

WI...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...BPH
AVIATION...LS
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