FXUS63 KMPX 050911
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
311 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS THE STRATUS OVER THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF CLOUD DECK
SHOULD ENVELOP ALL OF MINNESOTA PORTION OF THE REGION. HRRR TRENDS
INDICATE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CLOUDS TO WORK SOUTHWEST INTO THAT
REGION DURING THE MORNING. VSBYS NOT ALL THAT BAD THIS AM...WITH
MOST AREAS ABOVE 2SM. DOES APPEAR MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MIX OUT
THE STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL MENTION PARTLY CLOUDY DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST...AS
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON STRATUS TOTALLY CLEARING OUT. SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 30S INTO THE 40S WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR
FASTEST TODAY.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES STAY UP A BIT
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A TOUCH OF FOG OVER WESTERN WI THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT IF IT DOES
DEVELOP...AS FRONT/PRESSURE GRADIENT SAGS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD START OUT RATHER WARM MONDAY AND SHOULD SEE SOME UPPER 40S
AGAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH BEFORE FROPA IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT DO EXPECT THEM
AROUND MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT. MAY EVEN SEE A FLURRY OR TWO.

FLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN TRANSITION AGAIN AS WESTERN BLOCK
REMAINS. GFS AND GEM TREND AM AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WITH THE GFS THE MOST AMPLIFIED/COLDEST. THE 00Z ECMWF
CONTINUES ITS TREND OF DIVING SOME TROUGH ENERGY SOUTH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK BUT THE WESTERN BLOCK IS ERODED
WEST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A MORE ZONAL TYPE FLOW PATTERN
DEVELOPING INTO THE HE WEEKEND. EXTENDED DISCUSSION DID MENTION
THEY DID NOT LIKE THE ECMWF TREND...AND THEY HELD ONTO THE EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH A BIT LONGER. THIS DOES SPELL COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...PERIOD IS DRY...BUT THERE MAY BE
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY EAST...AS COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES ARE THE STRATUS AND FOG
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE EVENING...THE STRATUS HAD EXPANDED EAST AND SOUTH BACK
OVER THE TWIN CITIES...ALBERT LEA AND ONAMIA. VISIBILITIES HAVE
FARED IN THE MARGINAL VFR CATEGORY WHILE CEILING WERE IN THE
LIFR/IFR RANGE. VISIBILITIES HAD LOWERED BELOW A MILE OVER MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WERE KEEPING THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER FROM
BECOMING SATURATED BELOW THE INVERSION. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
PROBABLY SHAKE OUT AS FROST. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN THE FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE AND LIFT
SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS BY NOON...SHOULD BE VFR
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY MIDNIGHT TOMORROW
NIGHT.

MSP...IFR/LIFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING
SUNDAY. STRATUS LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TO THE ST
CROIX RIVER VALLEY BY 300 AM. VISIBILITIES LOWER TO 2-3 MILES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY LOWERING BELOW A MILE AT TIMES.
BETWEEN 900 AND 10 AM...THE FOG SHOULD HAVE BURN OFF OR ERODE. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

.MON...VFR.
.TUE...MVFR CIGS WITH PASSAGE OF CLD FRNT.
.WED...VFR.



&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

DWE/JPR


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