FXUS63 KMPX 170915

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
315 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

A clipper has brought accumulating snowfall to areas along and south
of the I-94 corridor as its surface low trekked from northwestern
South Dakota to Western Iowa over the last 12 hours. The heaviest
snowfall amounts occurred along and south of the Minnesota River.
Light snow over South Central MN this morning will progress
southeastward as moisture continues decreasing with an arctic
airmass sliding into the Northern Plains today. Cold air advection
will allow for widespread winds near 10 mph through the afternoon.
High temperatures will be limited to the teens in West Central MN to
mid 20s over West Central WI. Clear skies and the new snowfall south
of the I-94 corridor will allow for efficient radiational cooling
tonight with lows expected to be in the single digits and lower
teens for the Twin Cities metro.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

The long term starts out chilly as upper level troughing prevails, and
then temperatures moderate throughout the upcoming week as the
western mid-level ridge expands into the central CONUS.

Prior to the expansion of the ridge, northwest flow and surface
high pressure will bring colder than normal temperatures (around
10 degrees below), with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s on
Sunday. On Sunday night a weak wave in the base of the Hudson Bay
low dips across northern MN/WI. The bulk of the forcing looks to
pass north of the area and moisture is lacking, but light snow
could fall as far south as the I-94 corridor. Have included 20-30
percent chances on Sunday night into Monday morning, with
anticipated accumulations under one half inch.

After that, no measurable precipitation is foreseen through the
Thanksgiving holiday. By Wednesday temperatures look to return to
near-normal, with highs in the 35-40 degree range, and Thursday
looks even warmer with highs from 40-45.

The 17.00 run of the GFS and ECMWF both featured precipitation
over the eastern half of the forecast area, in association with a
healthy mid-level wave ejecting eastward. At this point thermal
profiles would support rain as the precipitation type for our
area. However there is still a lot of uncertainty with regard to
timing and synoptics, so have kept POPs in the chance category.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

Light snow will taper off from west to east overnight, but MVFR
cigs are likely to persist into Saturday morning before scattering
out and dissipating in the afternoon.

KMSP...Snow should be done at the beginning of the TAF period with
MVFR cigs likely moving in overnight. VFR expected by mid morning

Sun...VFR. Winds SW 10 kts.
Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Winds NNW 5-10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Winds NE 5 kts becoming S.


MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST early this morning for



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