FXUS63 KMPX 222343 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
643 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

Little concern in the near term with retreating high pressure over
the Great Lakes. We do expect winds to decrease this evening and the
boundary layer may decouple over west central WI later tonight.
Models suggest southerly wind to remain strong enough to preclude
widespread fog formation. We did continue the patchy fog mention
over west central WI late. A few mid/high level clouds are expected
to skirt the far northeast CWA overnight. Low temperatures should
range in the 40s.

Southerly winds will increase again over the area as pressure begins
to fall ahead of the Monday frontal system. This should generate
gusty winds 20-25kts across the MN portion of the cwa by late
morning. Temperatures are expected to warm to the upper 60s to
low 70s with plenty of sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

The large scale pattern during the long term forecast period looks
to primarily feature a trough over the central CONUS and ridging
along both west and east coasts. With the exception of Monday, this
will generally lead to cooler than normal high temperatures (5 to
10 degrees below normal) for next week. Lows will be closer to
normal, or even above normal, given adequate winds and cloud
cover to minimize radiational cooling.

This pattern will also bring several bouts of precipitation,
although not of a significant nature. The first round still looks
to arrive Monday and Monday night as the trough dips into the
north central CONUS and pushes a surface front across the area. As
eluded to previously, Monday looks to be the warmest day of the
upcoming week with much of the area experiencing southerly winds
in the warm sector ahead of the front. Expected low to mid 70s
over east central and southern MN and west central WI, with mid to
upper 60s over the remainder of the area. While we could see some
thunder with this system, associated instability and forcing look
insufficient for any strong storms.

In the wake of the front on Tuesday we may see scattered light
rain showers as the upper trough sweeps across the area, and then
another system follows Wednesday night and Thursday. Have included
likely precip chances with the latter system given the strength of
the shortwave.

As we head into next weekend, the trough deamplifies and a more
zonal flow develops. This will keep occasional precip chances in
the forecast, but none of them look to feature heavy rainfall,
just nuisance precipitation for outdoor activities.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

VFR expected through the period, except for perhaps some late
night fog at EAU. Southeast winds increase Sunday.

KMSP...No concerns.

Sun night...VFR. Wind SE 10g15 kts.
Mon...VFR. Chc MVFR/TSRA late. Winds SSW 10G20 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15 kts.




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