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FXUS63 KMPX 132341
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
541 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 320 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Regional radar continued to show an overall decrease in areal
coverage and intensity of the precipitation across southern
Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin this afternoon. Based
on satellite trends, and radar, the precipitation will end by
late afternoon, with some lingering light snow/flurries in far
south central Minnesota, or portions of west central Wisconsin
around Eau Claire until early evening. Otherwise, the main short
wave will move across the region, with drying taking place in the
wave of the short wave. However, the cyclonic circulation around
the departing short wave, should hold onto the cloud cover across
eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin until late tonight, and
possibly holding in western Wisconsin through sunrise. Currently
models are holding back the cloud cover across eastern
Minnesota/western Wisconsin until Thursday afternoon. This will
have an affect on temperatures which could hold down these
readings a few degrees cooler than forecast. Another cold front
will arrive late Thursday night and bring more cloud cover to the
region. Moisture depth is limited to the boundary layer, so I am
not expecting anything more than a flurry or sprinkle.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

No significant changes from the previous forecast. A large area
of surface high pressure extending across the entire Mississippi
River Valley up into Canada will keep the region dry on Friday.
This area of high pressure will shift eastward on Saturday and
southerly flow will develop across the Upper Midwest ahead of a
weak shortwave trough that will bring a chance for some light rain
or snow Saturday night into Sunday. Forecast soundings show pretty
shallow saturation and weak omega, so confidence isn't to high on
precipitation, and those that did see any rain of snow will have
very light amounts.

Looking ahead, another weak wave drops down and bring a small
chance for some light precipitation late Monday which could linger
into Wednesday. These are subtle, small scale features so did not
deviate from the blended guidance. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above the seasonal average for mid-November.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

MVFR ceilings are spread over much of MN/WI at TAF initialization
time. As the evening and overnight hours progress, this lower
cloud shield will shift off to the east as the departing cold
front drags them out of the area. This will allow for mainly
FEW/SCT high cirrus during the day tomorrow. No additional
precipitation is expected. Winds will gradually back from NW to SW
with speeds mainly in the 5-10kt range.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings in the 2k-3k ft range will remain in place
through the early morning hours then should scatter out just in
time for the Thursday morning push. Solid VFR conditions expected
thereafter with winds about 300 direction in the morning then more
of a crosswind component expected for the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.
Sat...MVFR ceilings likely. -RASN possible late. Wind S 10-20
kts.
Sun...MVFR ceilings possible early. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
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