FXUS63 KMPX 161044
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
544 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019
.UPDATE...For 12Z Aviation discussion below
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019
A weak surface trough axis will remain situated across western
Minnesota today, while fast westerly flow aloft persists. While
there aren't any obvious shortwaves traversing the flow today, any
minor ripple in the flow (especially during the afternoon hours)
could spark isolated showers, and possibly even a thunderstorm or
two. Have therefore included 20 POPS along the trough axis today
into this evening where short-term models prog weak destabilization
(0-3KM MUCAPES circa 1000 J/KG). While most locations should remain
dry, an isolated mention is warranted.
Slightly better chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms
arrive Monday as the trough axis shifts into the heart of the
forecast area and northern stream shortwave energy sags into the
Cool easterly flow will keep temperatures in the upper 60s to mid
70s today, and then a transition to weak southerly flow will allow
readings to moderate into the mid to upper 70s for highs on Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019
Kind of a generic summertime forecast next week, with day after day
of low chance PoPs as models have a hard time resolving subtle
features in the mostly zonal flow aloft. For the Tuesday-Thursday
timeframe, most locations will probably remain dry as the flow aloft
weakens and we remain under the influence of weak high pressure over
Hudson Bay. The main weather system during this timeframe will be a
shortwave that spins up a surface low over the central plains, but
guidance continues to trend towards taking this low well to our
south across southern Iowa/Missouri. A few lobes of vorticity
pivoting around this shortwave as well as the decaying wave from
Monday's precip could generate a few instances of scattered showers
and thunderstorms so will continue to mention low chance PoPs, but
no real organized activity is expected.
While midweek is trending drier, guidance is pointing towards a
wetter and more active period from Thursday evening into the
weekend, as an upper-level low pivots into the northern Plains.
Timing of this feature among models is still an issue so hard to go
much higher than 50% PoPs for any period even though the chance
for rain is looking more likely. The Friday/Saturday timeframe is
looking like the best bet for widespread showers and thunderstorms,
with ensemble guidance as well as the CIPS analogs both
highlighting a possible heavy rain/severe weather threat as well.
Temperatures look to remain fairly consistent and seasonable with
highs in the mid 70s and lows in the 50s. Warmer and more humid
summer-like conditions may materialize by the weekend, especially
if we end up in the warm sector of any potential systems towards
the end of the week.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019
MFVR stratus will plague the sites through the morning, with
improvement to VFR during the afternoon. Isolated showers are
possible, but given the low coverage/confidence, have only
included at WI sites. Low stratus/fog may redevelop Sunday night
into Monday morning. East/southeast winds AOB 7 knots will
prevail through the period.
Ceiling should improve to VFR around 19Z. Light drizzle will be
possible this morning, but the probability of showers is low.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR with slight chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind lgt and vrb.
Tue...VFR with slight chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR with slight chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind ENE 5 kts.
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