FXUS63 KMPX 131744
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1145 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH ANY ADDITIONAL QPF AS THE MAIN
STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION DRIFTS S/SE ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REGIONAL WV IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTING
W/NW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
YESTERDAYS WEAK SHORT WAVE HAS NEARLY SHEARED OUT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN MN WHICH PRODUCED ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
IN THE MISSISSIPPI AND MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER...REMNANTS
OF THIS WAVE...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVING SE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAY AID
IN WEAK LIFT AND PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
20/30% AT THIS TIME.

BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH MAY AFFECT FAR SE FA LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...DEEP MOISTURE IN THE FIRST 3000 FEET
SHOULD AID IN THE GENERATION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FG OR SPRINKLES AT
BEST.

BY MIDWEEK...A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD
ERODE MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION FOR
THE PAST WEEK. SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY...BUT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATED A LARGE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MIDWEST.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A COLDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND MAY
LAST THROUGH THE END OF MARCH. ..JLT..

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WILL CONTINUE IFR/LIFR CONDS INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA.
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT OVER WC WI AND PERHAPS EC MN THIS
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS CIGS MAKING 1000-1500 FT. VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED THIS
AREA AS WELL...WITH OCNL LOWER CIGS/VSBY FLOATING ACROSS IN STRONGER
N-NE SFC FLOW. LIGHTER WINDS AND THICKER SNOW COVER IN THE WEST
WILL KEEP CIGS/VSBYS DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME -RA MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. GFS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT WITH TAKING
VORT LOBE FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUN.
WILL MENTION PROB30 IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES. SOME INDICATION OF
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE EASTERN AREA SUNDAY MORNING/SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MENTIONED CIGS IMPROVING AGAIN TO 1200-1500 FT AFTER 15-16Z
SUN.

KMSP...WILL MAINTAIN IFR CONDS EARLY...PERHAPS MAKING 1000 FT THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL DROP CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN SOME BR. MAY
SEE A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO AROUND 06Z...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF.
SOME INDICATION OF DRIER AIR WORKING MORE INTO THE AREA AFTER 15Z
SUN...SO WILL LIFT CIGS TO 1500 FT AFTER THAT TIME. NORTH SFC WIND
FLOW WILL BE GUSTY FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY LOSING GUST
LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

TRH/JLT/DWE




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