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FXUS64 KMRX 170900
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
400 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)...
Ridge of Surface High Pressure over the area now with light winds,
and during the rest of the period. This ridge will sluggishly
move eastward into the Carolinas, that allows a weak return flow
to start forming over our area. However, with the next trough to
our west and northwest being so weak, the pressure gradient
between the Carolina ridge and this trough is weak, allowing the
return flow to stay pretty weak.

For today, looks like there will be abundant fog in the river
valleys with even some spotty freezing fog in areas that radiate
below freezing. This afternoon should be sunny across the entire
area, with a clear evening, and some patchy fog forming late. Looks
like very few places will get below freezing tonight, so will not
forecast any freezing fog tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)...
Brief dry period continues Sunday with mostly sunny skies and warmer
temperatures. Highs Sunday a couple degrees warmer than
Saturday...upper 50s to lower 60s which is near normal for the date.
Higher pressure over the Northeast and into the Tennessee Valley
will give the area one last dry day. As surface high shifts a little
farther east, south to southwest winds will develop by afternoon
warming the temperatures a few degrees. Sunday night increasing
clouds as weak front approaches. Lows several degrees warmer mostly
40s, but mid to upper 30s possible in colder valleys. Moisture
return ahead of front Monday will allow light showers to develop
during the day. Highs only a few degrees cooler with best rain
chances northern half late Monday into Monday evening as main
shortwave although weak moves through. Rainfall amounts should be
light. High pressure over Mississippi Valley will build in Tuesday
with skies clearing and reinforcing cooler airmass. Highs will be
back only in the mid 40s to mid 50s. The quiet pattern will continue
until during the day Friday with slowly warming temperatures back to
near normal Thanksgiving. Clouds increase again Friday as new upper
trough develops in the upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley. Increasing
southerly flow Friday will bring in clouds and chance of rain by
Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 39 62 43 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 37 59 42 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 58 37 59 43 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 35 57 38 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

GM/TD
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