FXUS64 KMRX 240716

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
316 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...A ridge of high pressure along
and just east of the southern Appalachians will produce another
dry and warm day. Model soundings show a strong boundary layer
inversion (around 850mb) over the region today. Satellite shows a
broken ceiling (around 850mb) advecting north into the area due to
the low-leve southerly flow around the ridge. This cloud cover
will remain through most of the morning, especially
central/south, then scattered during the afternoon. A good deal of
cirrus/cirru-stratus is expected late today and tonight.

Even though mostly cloudy/partly sunny sky is expected, warm
southerly winds will allow temperatures climb in upper 60s to
lower 70s most locations today.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...Overall...expect a rather
unsettled weather pattern throughout the extended. Could see
scattered convection begin to move in late Saturday afternoon in
advance of an approaching cold front. However...current model
timing brings the main line of convection across the area Saturday
night. A 40 to 50 KT 850MB jet will accompany the front and the air
mass will be weakly unstable for likely to categorical showers and a
chance of thunderstorms. Convection will continue over the region
into Sunday and with daytime heating the atmosphere will destabilize
further. A few showers may linger into Sunday night as the system
pulls way from the area. Will not see much of a break between
systems with another cold front quickly moving in and bringing
another round of showers and thunderstorms to the region around the
Monday/Tuesday time frame. A few showers may linger into Wednesday
with weak ridging to zonal flow aloft. Then...another system will
be approaching the area for Thursday...will only have a light chance
of pops mentions on Thursday as the main band of convection is
currently expected to remain west of the area through the end of the
extended period.


Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 54 72 58 / 0 0 30 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 52 71 55 / 0 0 20 80
Oak Ridge, TN 71 52 71 55 / 0 0 20 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 46 69 53 / 0 0 10 70




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