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FXUS65 KMSO 242217 CCA
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Missoula MT
417 PM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...South to southwest winds are picking up this
afternoon with widespread gusts of 15-20 mph across much of
western Montana and the Camas Prairie, ID. Winds will increase
during the rest of the afternoon, with some areas receiving gusts
of 25-30 mph.

A secondary front Sunday will bring in cooler temperatures and
another afternoon of some gusty westerly winds. Gusts of 20-30 mph
are expected. A little bit more moisture and instability will
bring some scattered showers in parts of northwest Montana with
Glacier NP having the best potential for showers. Temps will only
be in the lower 70s in most valleys. This Northwest flow pattern
will continue Monday and continue to bring a potential for showers
along the Divide and Glacier NP.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry as high pressure builds over the
region. Temperatures will rebound back to the near normal range
Tuesday and slightly above normal Wednesday (mid and upper 80s).

Confidence is increasing for a moderate push of moisture and
instability from the southwest which should lead to a few
thunderstorms across parts of southwest Montana and Lemhi county.
It's possible this moisture push will also encompass areas
further north but confidence is low at this time.

Labor day weekend looks somewhat dry and warm at this time, as
models are showing a ridge continuing through Friday. Saturday and
Sunday there is some consistency showing a change for a
development of a trough of low pressure over the Pacific
Northwest, which would result in a continued warm but increasing
southwest flow. Currently, there isn't a lot of moisture to tap
into from this flow, thus we expect mainly dry conditions.
Confidence in model solutions decreases by early the next week for
precipitation, though it does look like we will have some sort of
cool down.

&&

.AVIATION...Expect gusty winds from 20-25 mph through 25/0300z at
all terminals, though KMSO may have gusts over 30 mph for a few
hours this afternoon. Some mid level clouds are expected through
Sunday morning. Another front will move through Sunday and bring
another afternoon of gusty winds around 20-25 mph.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$
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