FXUS65 KMSO 150246
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
846 PM MDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.UPDATE...LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS AT DIXIE...SHOUP AND
GRANGEVILLE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN ALL AREAS
OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT'S MINIMUMS AT DIXIE...SHOUP AND GRANGEVILLE
APPEARED TO BE TOO WARM COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS VALUES. HENCE...COOLED
THESE AREAS DOWN TO VALUES MORE REPRESENTATIVE TO SURROUNDING
AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. NO AVIATION CONCERN ARE NOTED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM MDT SUN MAR 14 2010/

DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL NIGHTS. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERIODICALLY SWEEP ACROSS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST MONTANA...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP.

TUESDAY NIGHT....THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE CLOUDS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK
IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND
WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN UNDER AN
UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE LARGE-
SCALE FEATURES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...
HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE FINER DETAILS.
AS A RESULT...INTERMITTENT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD RUN APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES BY SATURDAY.

AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. NO AVIATION CONCERN ARE NOTED.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FELSCH
LONG TERM....DE ROSA
AVIATION...FELSCH


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