FXUS65 KMSO 152041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
241 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop
across Northwest Montana. These storms will be capable of brief
moderate rain and a few lightning strikes.

This warm and active weather will continue for the next couple of
days. Temperatures will be in the 80s to low 90s, which is 5 to 10
degrees above normal for this time of year. The convection each
afternoon/evening is anticipated to become more widespread. The
best chance for storms will be east of the Montana/Idaho border.

A weak ridge of high pressure will slide over the region on
Tuesday keeping temperatures warm, but limit the convection. A
dry cold front will swing through the region on Wednesday. This
front will cool temperatures to seasonal readings, but cause gusty
westerly winds. Little to no precipitation is anticipated with
this front.

The models are still indicating a trough of low pressure settling
over the region for the latter part of the week. This trough will
cause temperatures and snow levels to drop fairly dramatically.
Temperatures will be around 10 to 20 degrees below normal for
Thursday and Friday. Snow levels appear to drop to around 6000
feet by Friday morning, causing light snow accumulations in the
higher elevation. The models currently have northwest Montana
receiving the heaviest precipitation during this event.


.AVIATION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms are beginning to
develop this afternoon, primarily along the Continental Divide and
into northwest Montana. The main threats with thunderstorms will
be brief heavy rain and lightning. KGPI could periodically be
affected through 16/0300z. Winds will generally be light and
terrain driven, turning northerly this evening and overnight.
Another round of thunderstorms is possible on Sunday, and will
likely be more widespread than what is expected this afternoon.



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