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FXUS65 KMSO 232005
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
205 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...High pressure is building into north central Idaho
and western Montana today which will result in decreasing cloud
cover this afternoon and evening. Limited cloud cover overnight
will allow for patchy fog development early Friday morning, but
fog is not expected to become very widespread with cloud cover
forecast to increase during Friday morning with the next weather
system. North central Idaho and northwest Montana have increased
chances for precipitation during Friday morning but the main area
of precipitation is not expected until the afternoon and evening.

Snow levels will start off fairly high during most of the
precipitation period, Friday afternoon and evening. The
associated cold front is likely to pass overnight so snow levels
will lower to pass level and light/brief snow accumulations over
mountain passes can be planned for through early Saturday morning.
Convective showers during Saturday may bring mixed precipitation
to around 5000 feet and rain showers for most through the
afternoon.

Brief high pressure on Sunday still looks to bring dry conditions
to start the day with near average temperatures followed by
increasing cloud cover and showers in the late evening.

The Sunday evening showers will expand during the overnight and
remain through Monday with a trough and low pressure system. The
main low pressure center is currently forecast to pass well south
of the region, but we will need to watch for the threat of snow
accumulations in southwest Montana Monday night through Tuesday
morning, but confidence is low for snow impacts at this time.

Shower chances extend through Tuesday and there should be a brief
dry period early Wednesday before the next weather system
arrives.

The weather system that is possible for the second half of the
week maintains the appearance of a more impactful trough and low
pressure system, so snow is possible especially in southwest
Montana. The evolution of this low pressure will be monitored
closely in the coming days to gather confidence and potential
impacts.


&&

.AVIATION...Afternoon breezes will quickly dissipate around
sunset. Weak ridging will build over the region tonight allowing
for fair conditions. The only possible aviation impact looks to be
the potential of patchy fog and low ceilings across northwest
Montana including KGPI Friday morning. Cloud cover and breezes
will be on the increase areawide on Friday ahead of the the next
cold front. This front will bring a brief round of rain showers to
the terminal sites on Friday night.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$
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