FXUS65 KMSO 300943

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
343 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

A robust cold frontal system is currently making its way through
the Northern Rockies this morning. Valley rain showers and light
snow above 5000 feet will become widespread throughout the morning
and afternoon hours today. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph are already
frequenting larger valleys such as Flathead/Mission and
Bitterroot/Missoula valleys. Stronger showers that develop this
afternoon, particularly in north-central Idaho and west-
central/southwest Montana, will also be capable of producing
strong and erratic gusty winds and brief downpours. These showers
will persist through Sunday night/early Monday morning.

A quick transition to drier conditions is possible during the day
Monday, before the next cool and unstable disturbance enters the
area Monday evening. Rain and scattered snow showers will once
again be common, and linger into Tuesday.

A ridge of high pressure builds over the Northern Rockies Tuesday
night through Wednesday causing dry conditions and significant
warming. Temperatures on Wednesday should be near to slightly
above seasonal readings, which is about 10 degrees warmer than the
past week.

The ridge axis appears to shift east of the region on Thursday
causing the upper level flow to become southwesterly. This flow
will bring an increase in cloud cover and potentially a few
showers, but temperatures should still climb to the warmest
readings so far this year. Most valley locations should reach the
70 degree mark with a few locations in Idaho being in the 80s.

The models are starting to indicate that the Northern Rockies will
remain under this southwesterly to southerly flow Friday into the
Saturday. If this solution continues, then the region should
anticipate continued warmth with the potential of afternoon and
evening thunderstorm activity.


Scattered rain showers and occasional gusty winds of 20-30 kts
will impact terminals KGPI and KMSO this morning into this
afternoon. Precipitation will become more widespread by late
morning and early afternoon, resulting in rain and gusty winds for
KBTM and KSMN, as well. The lower cloud ceilings with periods of
MVFR conditions, combined with gusty winds, will be the main
impacts for TAF sites through Sunday night.



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