FXUS66 KMTR 100945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
245 AM PDT Fri Apr 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Band of showers stretching from Santa Clara county
southwest towards Monterey county will dissipate shortly after
sunrise this morning. Otherwise look for mostly cloudy and
continued near or slightly below normal temperatures in the 60s
today. A gradual warming trend through the weekend and into early
next week with no rain in the forecast at this time. Inland areas
will warm into the 70s to around 80 degrees. Long range models
indicate light rain chances may return around the weekend of April


.DISCUSSION...as of 2:45 AM PDT Friday...Band of light showers is
stretched across the region from Santa Clara county down along the
Big Sur coastline. Light rain started falling just before midnight
for places like Watsonville and Monterey with a few hundredths
being reported. This jet streak is rotating around the upper low
over Southern California and forcing for ascent is modeled to end
quickly with most showers ending between 12-14z. Elsewhere skies
are mostly cloudy with abundant low level moisture and clouds in
place keeping overnight lows mild with 2 am temperatures in the

The upper low wont bring us any more precip today but model cross
sections show plenty of clouds through the day with the most
sunshine forecast over the North Bay. The airmass will be
modifying as the core of the low slowly exits our region allowing
for seasonably mild afternoon highs into the mid and upper 60s.

As the low finally ejects a ridge of high pressure over the
Eastern Pacific will nudge towards the coast. A deep trough over
the eastern half of the country will keep the ridge axis offshore
keeping any serious warming in check. Nonetheless after a
relatively cool last few weeks we should see noted warming with
highs back into the 70s and even some lower 80s into next week.
Onshore flow near the coast will keep lower 60s in place at the
beaches with cold sea surface temps around 52-53.

The MJO is forecast to strengthen and move into phase 2 about one
week from now with some of the PNA ensembles showing a negative
phase heading into next weekend. The operational gfs and ecmwf
bring a weak trough onshore for the weekend of April 18-19th while
the blend of models has PoPs around 5%.


.AVIATION...as of 10:30 PM PDT Thursday...Mostly cloudy
tonight with cigs lowering to MVFR range as models show
abundant low-level moisture through Friday morning. A few showers
rotating around the low over southern California will bring a
chance for showers from the Santa Clara Valley and East Bay valley
south through Friday morning.

Vicinity of KSFO...Cigs 4000-5000 ft lowering to around 1500 ft
after 09Z. Light west to southwest wind becoming southeast after

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs through 21Z. A few light
showers 08Z-18Z.


.MARINE...as of 2:45 AM PDT Friday...Winds have switched back to
the northwest. Friday will have stronger winds along the Big Sur
coast, but gradually winds will increase across all waters
Saturday and Sunday as high pressure builds. A long period
southerly swell will mix with a moderate northwest swell through






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