FXUS66 KMTR 250925
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
225 AM PDT Sat Mar 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A few early morning showers can be expected today,
otherwise mostly dry through early Sunday. Rain chances will
return by Sunday afternoon and continue through Sunday night with
a few showers lingering into early Monday. Otherwise, dry and
mild weather is expected from Monday through the remainder of next
.DISCUSSION...As of 2:25 AM PDT Saturday...Latest radar scans
continue to show light showers moving across Monterey and San
Benito counties, with another batch of showers forming just off
the San Mateo county coast an moving to the east-southeast. Expect
this shower activity to gradually taper off as the system exits
to the east, with only a chance of showers into the morning. The
rest of the day should be mostly dry with highs in the upper 50s
to mid 60s.
The dry weather will persist into early Sunday. Then, a
relatively weak weather system is forecast to move across northern
California bringing more light rain to portions of the district
late Sunday and Sunday night. The 00Z GFS brings rain into the
North Bay counties by late afternoon, then down to northern
Monterey County before midnight. The system is progged to quickly
move through to the east and be gone by dawn. The ECMWF lingers
precip over the southern counties a little longer into Monday, but
for the most part, most of Monday should be dry.
High pressure is then forecast to build in over the west by
Tuesday keeping the district dry through the remainder of the
forecast period. There is a slight possibility of a weak system
brushing extreme northern California by Wednesday night/early
Thursday that may bring a slight chance of precipitation, but for
now most of the rainfall should remain to the north.
.AVIATION...As of 10:55 PM PDT Friday...Residual scattered showers
persist tonight especially over the north Central Coast. Local
IFR/LIFR/VLIFR tonight and Saturday morning as the surface to
lower levels remain quite moist. Drying in the mid-upper levels
tonight and Saturday support fog development especially if and
where lower clouds happen to partially clear.
A secondary slow moving and dry cool front slides SE across the Bay
Area Saturday evening. Preceding this front it's a low confidence
cloud cover forecast though due to a lack of near surface inversions
if there is cloud cover best guess would be that primarily MVFR/VFR
will prevail. Post frontal drier air intrusion should help keep VFR
going Saturday night and Sunday morning.
Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR/VFR. Wind light onshore tonight. 15-20 knots
onshore winds developing Saturday from 21z to 04z Sunday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Same as KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Light southeast to south winds with showers
continuing most of tonight. MVFR/VFR except local IFR tonight.
.MARINE...as of 10:37 PM PDT Friday...Expect light northwest winds
tonight in the wake of a cool frontal boundary. Southerly winds are
forecast to return Sunday as the next system approaches. Fresh short
period swells will make for choppy conditions over the coastal waters
through the weekend.
PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims
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