FXUS63 KOAX 190813

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
313 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Cluster of strong and possibly severe convection continues early
this morning along and just south of I80. This continues to make
east southeast progress and should be out of the forecast area
altogether by 7-8 am. A severe watch continues, with the main
storm south of Lincoln likely riding a downdraft CAPE gradient,
within an area of stronger effective bulk sheer around 50 knots.
Additional spotty convection continues westward toward Albion,
likely as a result of lift over a weak warm front poised to the
south. Have tried to clear out counties from severe watch 282 as
the threat passes to the southeast.

Otherwise, the remainder of the short term should yield pretty
decent weather, with dry conditions. Northwesterly flow develops
today behind the front. Showers and storms could develop /just/
north of the area this afternoon, closer to the upper level
support and the surface low. Thunderstorms may also develop /just/
south of the area this afternoon along the southern end of the
front across northern Kansas.

Will continue dry weather tonight as a ridge of high pressure
settles overhead, with thunderstorm chances just to our south
across Kansas. With the rains last night and this morning, there
could be some patchy fog as northwest winds diminish.

Dry and seasonable Friday and Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Dry weather continues Sunday, but rain chances increase again
Sunday night into Monday as the next weak front moves into the
area. Dry Tuesday, but rain chances again Wednesday with the next
weak front.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Thunderstorms moving through the KOFK area should clear that TAF
site by 07. Storms could impact KOMA/KLNK 09-11z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions, with winds becoming northwest through time by 16z at
KOFK and 17-18z at KLNK/KOMA. Winds could gust at KOFK and KOMA.




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