FXUS63 KOAX 231722

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1222 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Ridge of high pressure currently across the Mid Missouri Valley
shifts east today resulting in breezy southwest winds. This should
easily boost temps into the lower to mid 70s. Surface dewpoints in
the lower/mid 30s, and may even mix a little lower this afternoon
results in humidity values around 20-25% today, with lowest values
in northeast NE. This does help create very high fire danger along
and north of I80 today. If humidity goes any lower due to additional
mixing as indicated by the RAP, red flag warning conditions could
develop for a an hour or two in northeast NE.

A weak wave currently moving onto the west Coast moves across the
Rockies tonight, and into the area Monday. Increasing high clouds
will be present overnight, with temps remaining in the upper 40s.

Spotty showers could occur in northeast NE Monday, but elsewhere
remains dry, with another wind day with high temps in the lower to
mid 70s ahead of an advancing cold front. Surface humidity should
be slightly higher on Monday, so fire danger is a little lower.

Another wave coming out of the Rockies Monday night brings
increasing precipitation chances to the region. There is some
instability and thus isolated thunderstorms could also occur
across eastern NE. Precip chances increase to 40-70% Tuesday with
highest chances north of I80. Little if any rain is expected in
southeast NE along the NE/KS border.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Precip chances begin to wind down Tuesday night after midnight.
Colder temps are moving into the region, and lows in northeast NE
could drop into the mid 30s. If there's any precip left, it could
end as a rain/snow mix, although it seems the better dynamics/moisture
are moving out by the time the colder air arrives.

GFS/ECMWF are generally dry on Wednesday, but given weak trough and
cool temps aloft could result in some instability showers across
the region.

Wednesday night and Thursday morning should be dry, but the next
weak wave moving out of the Rockies could bring more rain chances
Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Significantly better
chances for rain arrive Friday afternoon and beyond, with 40-60%
chances through the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period with only scattered
high level clouds. As a low-level jet develops over the area
tonight we will see low-level wind shear develop at all 3 TAF
sites. This will likely continue into mid morning on Monday before
the low-level jet weakens and the boundary layer couples with
southwest winds increasing with gusts likely from the southwest.





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