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FXUS63 KOAX 172121
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
321 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

88D mosaic showing relatively narrow bands of light snow extending
from south-central IA all the way to south-central NE. Some
intensification noted generally along the I-80 corridor. Snow
activity was corresponding well with axis of stout low/mid layer
ageostrophic forcing/300K isentropic upglide. Glance at cross-
sections indicate some slant-wise instability as well roughly
between the 600-700MB layer. Given this have decided to expand the
advisory to include Jefferson/Saline/Seward//Lancaster/Cass in
the NE CWA and Mills/Montgomery in the IA CWA. Accumulations from
1 to 2 inches expected.

Ascent is progged to gradually dissipate through this evening
with snow activity south of I-80 coming to a close sometime around
midnight. Northerly winds tonight will push lows into the single
digits north and low/mid teens south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Medium range models remain in agreement dry conditions will
persist Tuesday night through Thursday evening with the warming
trend continuing. Highs Wednesday/Thursday/Friday topping out in
the low 50s in part to increasing heights across the central CONUS
in association with upper ridge building from the west and
southerly surface winds/warm air advection.

Precip chances return Thursday night/Friday in association with a
open wave crossing the central CONUS. Fortunately soundings
suggest the environment will only support rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

MVFR conditions with a few flurries at the TAF sites, but
generally very little accumulation. Gusty northerly winds at 15 to
30 mph. Conditions gradually improving to VFR with winds
diminishing through time.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
NEZ065>068-078-088>093.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ079-
080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DeWald
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