FXUS63 KOAX 161140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
640 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The early morning upper-air pattern is characterized by a split-
flow regime, featuring a polar-branch low over Saskatchewan and
Manitoba, and a subtropical-branch shortwave trough traversing
the southern Plains. We will remain between those two disturbances
today with weak surface high pressure yielding dry conditions.
Afternoon temperatures should warm into the lower to mid 80s.

Tonight into Monday, the surface ridge axis begins to erode with
modest low-level warm advection supporting an increasing chance
of showers and a few thunderstorms mainly across northeast NE
into west-central IA. Increasing clouds and areas of precipitation
will modulate temperatures with highs on Monday ranging from the
mid to upper 70s over northeast NE to lower to mid 80s along the
KS border.

Monday night into Tuesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to
emerge from the central Rockies and translate into the mid to
lower MO Valley, inducing a weak wave along a surface front
sagging south through the area. Forcing for ascent attendant to
the disturbance coupled with convergence/uplift along the front
will support a good chance for showers and thunderstorms,
especially on Tuesday. Severe weather potential currently appears
low. Highs on Tuesday will be mainly in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

While specific details vary, latest medium-range guidance
suggests the development of a prominent long-wave trough over the
western U.S. by late week. Such a pattern evolution would signal
a potentially active period of severe weather, especially from
about Friday into next weekend. High temperatures will be near
seasonal normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

VFR conditions through much of the period with high clouds during
the day. A weak shortwave is generating showers out west and these
shra/tsra will gradually work east, possibly affecting KOFK after
04 or 06Z tonight. Patchy fog may need to be added at KOMA/KLNK
early Monday morning.




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