FXUS63 KOAX 050936
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
336 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ALONG WITH HOW THEY WILL IMPACT HIGHS TODAY...
WILL PROVIDE LARGE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
PRECIPITATION CAUSED BY THE STORM SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE CENTRAL
PLAINS YESTERDAY HAD PRETTY MUCH ENDED IN OUR FORECAST AREA BY
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENED AND CLOUD TOPS
CONTINUED TO WARM WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS DECREASING
EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING DOWN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
IOWA. THERE WERE ALSO SOME AREAS OF FOG WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. NONE
OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
SITUATION...EXCEPT MAYBE THE HIGH RESOLUTION RUC. GENERALLY TRIED
TO FOLLOW THAT MODEL...WHICH KEEPS LOW CLOUDS AROUND FOR MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. IT DOES TEND TO BREAK CLOUDS UP IN OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SOMEWHAT. SO...LOWERED HIGHS A BIT
IN WESTERN IOWA AND FROM ABOUT NEBRASKA CITY TOWARD OMAHA...
FREMONT...TEKAMAH AND PENDER. FELT THAT LOW CLOUDS MIGHT BREAK UP
THIS EVENING. DAY SHIFT CAN TAKE A LOOK AT THAT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS SHOW THAT THE 500 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR KANSAS
CITY AT 09Z WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH MISSOURI
TODAY. THIS LEAVES A REX BLOCK OVER THE ROCKIES AS THE MAIN LARGE
SCALE FEATURE OF CONCERN. CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER UTAH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT INTO COLORADO MONDAY. THEN THAT FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL HELP FORCE A COLD
FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF...SO INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES A LITTLE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
00Z GFS WAS MORE BULLISH THAN THE 00Z NAM OR 00Z ECMWF IN REGARDS
TO AMOUNTS...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARED TOO WET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY SNOWCOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
AND KEPT TREND OF STAYING BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES BEYOND TUESDAY.

MILLER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK

GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE STRATUS OVER SE SD...THIS
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO OFK AROUND 08Z AND OMA AROUND 11Z WITH IFR
CONDS. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL MAKE IT TO LNK OR NOT...BUT WILL
INCLUDE A SCT GROUP TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY. ONCE IT GETS INT
THERE IT MAY WANT TO HANG FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY AT OMA AND WILL KEEP SOME IFR CONDS THERE THROUGH
17Z WITH IMPROVING CONDS AFTER THAT. WINDS WILL CONT TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$
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