FXUS63 KOAX 170814

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
314 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Upper circulation was located over south central Iowa at 07Z with
radar showing precip dissipating rapidly over western Iowa on the
backside of the low.

Less active weather indicated for most of the weekend although
cloud cover will likely hold tough over the area today. By tonight
mid level ridging will move into the region with warmer
temperatures for Sunday. Another strong upper trough will be
moving into the southern Rockies during the day on Sunday bringing
increasing clouds and a chance of showers by late afternoon to
western parts of the area. Rain and thunder chances increase
Sunday night as the system moves across the southern plains then
lingers through the day Monday as it tracks a bit slower east
across southern Missouri. Models suggest the potential for
significant rainfall will exist just south of the area across
northern parts of Kansas into central Missouri late Sunday night
and Monday morning with our southeast border area on the northern
edge of this heavier rain. Patchy mixed precipitation will be
possible in northern parts of the area during this same time where
near freezing temperatures are forecast to develop before warming
later in the morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Pattern looks to stay rather active in the extended period with
additional upper systems moving into the plains region, although
model solutions are not in agreement so confidence on the low side
at this time.

Initially, a weaker upper trough is expected to move through the
region Monday night and Tuesday bringing another round of mixed
precip to parts of the area before shifting east Tuesday
afternoon. Mainly dry conditions return Wednesday and extend
through most of Thursday as ridging again builds over the region
ahead of the next strong trough coming into the western part of
the country. Latest models differ on handling of this system in
the later part of the period with the GFS showing a more active
warm advection wing Thursday night while the EURO waits until
Friday to bring this feature into the region. Major differences
then continue beyond Friday into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Mostly IFR conditions continue through 18Z with MVFR conditions
then for the remainder of the forecast period. Extensive cloud
shield is expected to remain across the area on the back side of
the departing upper low as an area of moisture gets stuck over the
northern plains between the departing system and closed low over
the Pacific Northwest.




LONG TERM...Fobert
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