FXUS64 KOHX 161134
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
634 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
Bermuda sfc high setting up through the short term period. Southerly
low level flow will continue to bring the humidity back up across the
area. This will enable partial to full aft cap erosion depending
on the upcoming dynamics that could or will be in place in the
next few days. The upper pattern does reveal that it will be a
semi-active westerly pattern with a stronger shortwave passing
though on Tuesday.
For today, weak upper ridging is stacked through the mid and upper
levels. Meanwhile, the lower levels do reveal subsidence through the
early afternoon hours. However, omega fields do turn positive by mid
to late afternoon and that is when we could see some convective
development. Its important to note that cape values will be rather
high and those storms that do fire could become strong. Otw, pops
will be rather low today, just 20-40 percent.
Tonight, no real combination of deep moisture and upper divergence
is noted. Although, mrh levels increase some overnight across the
west. Pops will remain in the 20-40 percent range.
On Monday, the shortwave axis will drop across the lower and mid MS
valleys. Mid and upper level flow will become more southwesterly
with better moisture transport. Pops will be a little higher but
capes will be a little lower given the added cloudiness. Upper
divergence does begin to influence the convection potential into
Monday night. This will couple with the increasing MRH trend and
thus, pops will slowly climb through Monday night.
Look for a likely prob of convection on Tuesday as the shortwave
axis pushes through. Sfc low will be rather weak but there is
evidence of some increased shear during the afternoon. Perhaps a
few strong tstms once again.
For the near term temps, 24 hr delta 850 mb temps climb a good 2C by
afternoon today. With a fair amounts of sunshine today, we should
reach of just eclipse 90F at BNA. Otw, warm and muggy as the
summertime feel will return. Highs will hold in the lower to mid 80s
on Tuesday though as cloudiness and pops both ramp up.
In the ext fcst, the pattern initially, remains the same. The upper
level westerlies will give way to another shortwave on Thursday.
Pops will reach there maximum at that time and will peak out at
around 60-70 percent for Wed nt into Thu. We will see a reasonable
push of drier air behind the shortwave so shower and tstm chances
will drop as we reach the weekend.
For the ext temps, highs will hold in the 80s through Thu. Then, as
more sunshine returns, we will reapproach 90 degrees. Though we get
some lower mrh values behind that shortwave, the lower levels still
hang on to 65 to 70 degree dewpoints. Thus, lows will continue to
run a degree or two above normal.
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A couple of showers are in the vicinity of BNA at this moment but
will quickly move east with minimal impacts. Scattered showers and
storms will dot Middle Tennessee today but timing and likelihood
of impacting the terminals is too low to include a prevailing line
or the mention of VCTS. The only exception is a 6 hour window
this afternoon and evening at CKV where chances look a little
higher. Cigs and vis should be VFR unless a terminal is impacted
by a storm which would hinder vis. Winds will increase out of the
southwest to around 10 kt with some gusts to 20 kts after 14z
before relaxing this evening.
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