FXUS64 KOHX 181126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
526 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019




Very weak cold front currently crossing the mid-state producing
only patchy drizzle at this point as heavy precip now well east.
This front will move just south and east of the area by morning
and pretty much stall there while a SFC high zips rapidly by

That will give us a brief dry period today into early tonight...but
next system very progressive and is the main focus for the weekend.
Strong SFC low/cold front advances to the MS river valley by 12z
Sat...then skirts very close to the TN/KY border through the day.
Ahead of this system...the mid-state is in for a good round of
showers/storms Sat and behind...an arctic blast will bring a
abrupt cool down Sat night/Sun.

Deep moisture and vertical motion will be peaking overnight tonight
into late Sat afternoon. The area likely to see 1.5-2 inches of rain
...with localized amounts a bit higher. Challenge will be lingering
moisture and onset of cold air late Sat/Sat night. Cold air will
move rapidly into our northwest late afternoon...and then area-
wide in the evening. While the entire area likely to see some form
of wintry precip, the north-west, highland rim and northern
plateau look to be the points of highest accumulation. Temperature
structure such that northwest already mixing by sundown...with
the remainder by midnight. Most likely case at this point looks
like a few hundreds ice accumulation...with snow up to an inch in
prime locations, less amounts elsewhere, all through Sun morning.
Biggest concern is just overall speed of this system which is
making length of time for wintry precip hard to determine.

Drying does occur on Sun and after a very cold start to Mon, a
quick rebound kicks in. Temps warm some 20 degrees by Tue
afternoon but rain moves rapidly back in ahead of the next fast
moving front. This front buzzes by late Tue night and brings
another shot of cold air on Wed...which may hit us with a wintry
mix Wed night before ending.

Thu things dry out but something already brewing for late Fri into



MVFR and lower cigs to impact terminals today, with light winds
around and under 5 knots. Fog will impact KCSV this morning, and
possibly some MVFR fog at KBNA/KMQY. Brief VFR period may occur
this evening, however rain approaching from the east will bring
MVFR cigs back, and even IFR/LIFR cigs from west to east at the
end of the TAF period. MVFR and lower vis can be expected during
periods of heavier rainfall at the end of the TAF period and into
the day Saturday.





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