FXUS64 KOHX 271124
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
624 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
It's a quiet morning across Middle TN at forecast time, but radar
shows this will change over the next couple of hours -- for some. A
batch of showers has crossed the Mississippi River and is headed
towards the mid-state. There were a few thunderstorms involved but
seem to have faded. Either way, not everybody is going to get
rain from this. Latest trends show areas basically west of I-24
will see most of this rain. Less than a quarter of an inch is
expected. This may linger past 12Z for our southeast counties so
I'll carry some small pops into the morning period, but rains will
be over before noon. Skies should clear out rather quickly and
the sun will make a return. Guidance is still a little high for
afternoon temps, so I'll remain below for the whole mid-state.
Another dry day is on tap for Wednesday, but temperatures will climb
back towards normals as southerly return flow starts up again.
Rain chances will begin to increase starting Thursday. PoPs will be
low for Thursday with concentration over the Plateau, but begin to
ramp up Friday as more moisture works into the region. These will
likely be mostly diurnally driven, but as we get into the weekend,
as series of shortwave disturbances will keep the weather pattern
rather unstable. Best day for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms now looks like Saturday. Have allowed PoPs to creep
into the likely category and these only look to go higher as we get
closer. There will be plenty of instability in the atmosphere
(3000+ J/Kg) but very little shear, so while there likely won't be
much organization for severe, at least a few strong storms will be
Temperatures will remain near normal through the weekend and into
the first part of next week when PoPs should start to head back into
more of a scattered pattern each afternoon.
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR. Some light showers are off to the west of the terminals this
morning, but look to stay away from the vicinity for now. Winds
will primarily be out of the northeast during the day around 5
knots, becoming more southeasterly by the end of the TAF period.
Some mid to high level clouds will pass through the area with the
showers out west, but expecting VFR cigs to prevail for the TAF
period as well.
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