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FXUS64 KOHX 192315
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
615 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Broke out a late this afternoon grouping in the zone forecast
product for any iso shwrs/tstms across mid state region,
especially srn portions, that develop. Look for any shwrs/tstms
to diminish by the end of the late afternoon hrs with dry
conditions expected remainder of tonight. Overnight lows
will continue to be slightly above seasonal normal values in
the low to mid 70s, mid to upper 60s Cumberland Plateau Region.

Conditions will be similar Tue/Wed as well as what has been
experienced this afternoon but it continues to look like low
level moisture will be slightly more plentiful and contribution
from upper support also slightly more favorable. However any
deep layer moisture should be limited. Thus looking at another
isolated/scattered scenario to shwrs/tstms, especially during
the afternoon/evening hrs. Possible also a few strong storms
mainly across nrn portions Tue afternoon late into Tue evening.

Thu, and especially Fri, continues to look like best days this
week for possibility of sct/numerous shwrs/tstms. Upper level
ridging breaks down and will allow weak upper troughing along
with several weak upper level disturbances within its flow to
transverse mid state region. Ahead of a sfc boundary that is
expected to approach mid state region by Thu morning, and
eventually slowly progress into mid state region as Thu into
Fri progresses, will be amble deep layer moisture that will
aid in convective development across our area.

Some significant differences continue to be noted between
latest ECMWF/GFS model solutions for upcoming weekend into
first part of next week. As previously noted, sfc/low level
ridging influences a little bit stronger in latest ECMWF
model solution. Latest GFS model solution continues to keep
deep layer moisture across mid state region. Have generally
trended to the more drier ECMWF solutions as it seems a bit
more realistic. However, will continue a mention sct shwrs/tstms
during daylight and iso shwrs/tstms during nighttime hrs as
preferred latest ECWMF solution depicting a quasi upper level
summertime pattern to be place across mid state region with sfc
boundary that had previously pushed south of mid state region by
just after daybreak on Sat morning eventually pushes newd into
and across mid state region as Mon progresses.

Heat and humidity will continue, with a bit of a break in the heat
by the later portions of work week. Highest temps/dewpoints will
continue to be across western locations thru mid week. Maximum
heat index values during afternoon hrs on Tue and Wed will be
around 100 degrees for locations generally around and west of the
I-65 Corridor. Afternoon highs Tue and Wed will range in the lower
90s, mid 80s to around 90 degrees Cumberland Plateau Region. A
transition to a more seasonal, if not a few degrees below seasonal
high temps, pattern is expected as later half of work week into
the first part of next work week progresses. Overnight lows will
once again be mild on Tue night, but will also start a slow
cooling trend to eventually around or even slightly below seasonal
normal values by first part of next work week too.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR with MVFR fog possible. Mainly kept fog mention to KCKV/KCSV
overnight, but with the same weather pattern as the previous days,
fog will remain possible at all terminals. Otherwise expecting VFR
cigs and light southwesterly winds. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms look to move in from the northwest tomorrow by mid
afternoon for KCKV, so have VCTS mention in for now. Looks to
arrive at KBNA/KMQY around 00Z, so will likely have mention in the
next forecast.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........Barnwell
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