FXUS61 KOKX 190544
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
144 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018
High pressure will remain in control through Friday, drifting
south and east of the area Friday afternoon. A cold front
approaches Friday night. The cold front will sweep across the
area Saturday evening with brisk conditions into Sunday as high
pressure builds from the west. The high will shift off the Mid
Atlantic coast on Monday followed by a weak clipper like system
tracking through New England on Tuesday. High pressure then
returns for mid week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A slight decrease in the forecast was made with low temperatures
across some locations and some patchy frost was added for a few
coastal locations. Otherwise, the forecast remains mainly on
track. Surface high pressure continues to build toward the mid
Atlantic coast overnight. With the high in the vicinity, winds
will continue to diminish, and skies will be clear. There will
be some weak warm advection tonight at 900 to 850 MB. With the
decoupling of winds, the winds being light, especially across
the interior, low temperatures will be a few degrees below
freezing. So have kept the freeze warnings and frost advisories
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure will move off the mid Atlantic coast Friday and a
longwave trough with a shortwave rotating into the western
portion moves into the Great Lakes by the end of the day. One
shortwave moves across the area Friday night ahead of a more
potent wave and associated cold front approaching Saturday. Have
brought chance and slight chance probabilities into the region
with the shortwaves and cold front Friday night into Saturday.
Temperatures will be warm enough for the precipitation to be all
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Global models are in good agreement with the upper pattern
through early next week with fall like weather continuing in the
northeast. Long wave trough axis over the eastern Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley Sat night will shift east of the New England
coast on Sun with zonal flow briefly developing Mon ahead of the
next shortwave Tue. This is where solutions diverge in the
global models. The GFS is more amplified and more progressive
with building heights for the middle of next week while the
ECMWF is broader at H5 with another shortwave diving down from
central Canada for Thu.
At the sfc, a cold front will sweep across the area Sat eve
with low chances for rain continuing until the upper trough axis
swings through Sat night. Dry and unseasonably cool weather is
then forecast for the remainder of the period, although PoPs on
Tue may increase in subsequent forecast packages if there is a
bit more moisture for a clipper like system to work with in
southern New England. Otherwise, brisk Sat night and Sun due to
the combination of CAA behind the front and a tightening
pressure gradient between strengthening low pres to the north
and a building high to the west.
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds to the south of the region into Friday
evening. A cold front approaches Friday night.
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. There is a chance of showers
tonight that could briefly lower conditions to MVFR, but for now
will not mention in the TAF.
Light and variable winds early this morning become SW and
increase through the day. Sustained speeds will be 10-15 kt with
gusts 15-20kt this afternoon. Gusts could weaken or briefly end
this evening, but a gusty SW flow returns tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday night-Saturday...MVFR possible with a chance of showers
into early Saturday, then VFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt.
.Saturday night-Sunday...VFR. W-NW winds G20-30KT possible.
.Sunday night-Monday...VFR. W gusts 15-20 kt possible Sunday
.Tuesday...VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels into Friday
morning. As high pressure drifts to the south and east Friday
and a longwave trough digs into the Great Lakes and northeast
Friday, the pressure gradient will increase, along with low
level winds. So, expect wind gusts to increase to SCA levels by
late Friday morning across all the waters, and a SCA has been
posted beginning at 15Z, continuing into Saturday. Winds
continue to increase especially on the ocean waters, as low
level winds increase too, and gusts will likely be near gale
force Friday night into Saturday. A gale watch has been issued
on the ocean waters Friday night into Saturday morning.
The combination of CAA behind a cold front and a tightening
pressure gradient between strengthening low pressure to the
north and a building high to the west will result in SCA to
possibly gale force conditions Sat night through Sun, before
gradually diminishing Sun night. Sub-advsy conds return on all
waters by Mon morning, although marginal winds and seas are
possible late Mon night and Tue.
No hydrologic issues are expected through the middle of next
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.
CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ010>012.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ069-070-
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ004-103-105-
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT
Saturday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
Gale Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
evening for ANZ350-353-355.
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