FXUS61 KOKX 132052
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
352 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE TRACKING OUT TO SEA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HEAVY RAIN HAS NOW SPREAD ASHORE. RADAR INDICATES AN ARC OF HEAVY
RAIN FROM MONTAUK INTO SOUTHERN CT AND INTO NJ AND THE METRO. THE
SURFACE LOW...AT 992 MILLIBARS...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE MAY. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST OF
THE DELMARVA. THE CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TO CONTINUE ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
WIND GUSTS STILL STRENGTHENING. ALREADY NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
DAMAGE. A REPORT OF 58 KT HAS COME IN AT BLUE POINT ON LONG
ISLAND. THIS IS 67 MPH. WIND CORRIDOR CONTINUES NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING AND WITH MULTIPLE 58 KT REPORTS OUT OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NJ...WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH 1AM.
ADDITIONAL DOWNED TREES/POWERLINES EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE NORTH OF THE REGION
AS WELL...RESULTING IN A GREATLY DIMINISHED GUST POTENTIAL.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL UNITED
STATES PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT IN ML MUCAPE FIELDS...SO A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.
THE SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF PRODUCES SOME MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION USED. CONCERN AREA
WILL BE NORTHWEST INTERIOR ZONES WHERE DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW. FOR NOW
FORECAST IS A MIX. WITH THE PRECIPITATION RATES ONLY MODERATE AND
MARGINALLY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BUMPED UP POPS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
LINGER LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
AREA TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH 21Z OR SO...BEFORE FALLING
TO 400-600 FT OVERNIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO GUST BETWEEN 40 AND 50
KTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE
DIMINISHING TOWARDS MORNING. WINDS SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN THE TAFS
WITH WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN 1500-2000 FT AS HIGH AS 80 KT.
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
10-20KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUN AFT/NIGHT...IFR/MVFR
MON...MVFR/VFR. GUSTY WINDS.
TUE-THURS...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH 1AM.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW WORKING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WATERS.
BRANT BEACH OFF THE NJ SHORE HAS RECORDED A 56 KT GUST. SEAS ON
THE WESTERN SOUND UP TO 8 FT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 10 FT ON
THE SOUND AND TO OVER 20 FT ON THE OCEAN. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH GALE FORCE BY SUNRISE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM. GUSTY...SCA
CRITERIA WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. ATLANTIC WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. THE BAND OF THE
HEAVY RAIN IS NOW OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN REDEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOURLY RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HEAVIEST RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
IN ADDITION...RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE DUE TO
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. BY SUNDAY...MAIN ISSUE SHOULD BE RIVER FLOODING.
FLOODING ON MAINSTREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
URBAN PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TO BE UPDATED SOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ALREADY RUNNING 1.5 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH HIGHEST LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. AS
A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THERE FOR THIS
MORNING.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN BACKING
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO PILE WATER INTO AREA
HARBORS. AS A RESULT EXPECT MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
COAST OF THE WESTERN SOUND (HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
THERE) FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ELSEWHERE...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AS IS OUTSIDE OF THE PORTION CONVERTED TO A
WARNING. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF GENERALLY 3-3.5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WITH WINDS RELAXING SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY MORNING. WILL ADDRESS ANY HEADLINE FOR THIS
AFTER THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS COMPLETE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ011-012.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ009-010.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ069>081.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NYZ067>081.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ079-081.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ067-068.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072-
074-075-080.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ071-073-078.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ075>077-080-
081.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ076-
077.
NJ...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ003>006-011.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NJZ002>006-011.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ002.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ005-
006-011.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MAS
HYDROLOGY...FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MET/JMC
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