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FXUS61 KOKX 191812
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
212 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds in through tonight, followed by a
cold front crossing the area Wednesday and Wednesday night as
an area of low pressure passes to our south. High pressure then
builds to the northeast through thursday night, then gradually
retreats to the northeast into Saturday. This allows a warm
front to lift through the area late Saturday, followed by a cold
front that crosses the Tri-State Sunday. High pressure then
builds into the area through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NW flow continues today. Clearing skies have resulted in a sunny
afternoon.

The NW flow should preclude a seabreeze, as a result, expect
temperatures to generally be in the mid-upper 80s, except
around 80-lower 80s in the higher terrain across the northern
tier of the CWA from W Passaic County through interior SW CT.

There will be moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean
beaches into this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NW flow continues tonight, with continued dry weather and
minimal cloud cover. Lows should run around normal, except
upwards of 5 degrees above normal in and immediately adjacent to
NYC.

The flow aloft flattens to zonal on Wednesday as a closed low
over Quebec pushes farther S. An associated 700-500 hPa
shortwave approaches from the west late Wednesday - possibly
bringing some spotty showers to mainly western zones. Highs
Wednesday should be around normal levels.

The axis of the closed low pushes towards the region Wednesday
night, this should trigger some mainly scattered showers and
possibly a rumble of thunder as well. Precipitable waters
increase to 1.75 to around 2" Wednesday night, so there is the
potential for locally heavy rainfall as well. Refer to the
hydrology section of the AFD for details. Lows Wednesday night
should run a few degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW flow sets up aloft Thursday as the axis of the mid-upper
level trough slides to the east. Could see some linger showers
or Thunderstorms early, otherwise it should be dry with
decreasing cloud cover.

Deep layered ridging builds into the area from Thursday night
through Friday night, with associated subsidence keeping things
dry with minimal cloud cover.

The ridging breaks down over the area on Saturday as a northern
stream shortwave trough approaches from the west. This could
bring some spotty rain to the area before the associated surface
warm front lifts to the north by late in the day.

The shortwave trough passes to the north Saturday night, with
any showers confined mainly to the evening.

There is some question on the exact timing and strength of the
next northern stream shortwave trough. For now it appears it
passes by , mainly to the north on Sunday - so limit chance of
showers and thunderstorms to mainly N interior zones with slight
chance pops elsewhere. There is some chance this shortwave
passes by dry, as the best dynamics are progged to stay to the
N of the region.

NW flow then returns into early next week, with cooler and less
humid conditions currently forecast for next Monday.

Temperatures Thursday-Saturday should be within a few degrees of
either side of normal. Sunday should see highs running above
normal and Monday should see temperatures return to near normal
and possibly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds into the region tonight and Wednesday.

VFR thru the TAF period. N-NE wind this afternoon 10-15 KT with
gusts to 20 kt. Wind gusts diminish late this afternoon and
become light tngt. Winds become light onshore on Wed.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible for minor wind direction
variability but high confidence remains that overall direction
remains right of 360 magnetic.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible for minor wind direction
variability but high confidence remains that overall direction
remains right of 360 magnetic.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday...VFR.
.Wednesday night...Showers likely, possibly a tstm, with MVFR
or lower conds, as low pressure passes to the south.
.Thursday-Friday...VFR.
.Saturday...A chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, late
Sat into Sat Night. SE wind near 10 kt.
.Sunday...VFR expected. Slight chc of a shower. Winds becoming
NW near 10 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building over the waters will keep winds and seas
below SCA levels through Fri. Increasing sw flow could produce
SCA conditions over the weekend, particularly on the ocean where
seas will build to close to 5 ft. Wavewatch has been adjusted
down slightly for this period however due to its known high bias
in sw flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
It should be mainly dry into Wednesday morning.

Currently forecasting 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch basin average
rainfall from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.
However, with very high precipitable waters forecast, there is
the potential for locally heavy rainfall with any stronger
convection. Areas experiencing locally heavy rainfall could
experience minor flooding, mainly of urban and known poor
drainage areas.

No significant widespread hydrologic impacts are currently expected
from Thursday into early next week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Maloit
NEAR TERM...Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...Maloit
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...Maloit
EQUIPMENT...
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