FXUS61 KOKX 050857
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NEARBY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE IN THE
DAY. MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT LATE IN
THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS
THE REGION. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE AND UNDERCUT A
COUPLE OF DEGREES AS MODEL NOT PICKING UP WELL ON THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING SOUTH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE WITH THE WEAK
WAVE OVER NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI TRACKING QUICKLY TO THE EAST. THIS
WEAK WAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
SO LITTLE IMPACT WILL BE SEEN...MAY BE MAINLY CLEAR.

FOR NIGHT USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE. WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
LATE TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE
EVENING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE SLOWLY LATE.

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER GFS GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT. THEN
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE
FRONT WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES. WITH THE EARLIER IN THE DAY AND
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES. MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH ITS PASSAGE...SO DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH A VORT MAX
APPROACHING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. HAVE INCLUDED
SCATTERED FLURRIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. MODELS ARE STILL DIVIDED AS TO WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A
WEAK LOW OR TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH OR NEARBY THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THESE TWO PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BEST GUESS THEREAFTER IS
THAT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BACK IN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH A COLDER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK
FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NNE WINDS THIS MRNG. SOME VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION THIS AFTN
AND EVE AS THE HIGH REACHES THE AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W LATE TNGT
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...

SUN NGT-WED...VFR.

WED NGT-THU...CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N TODAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL OVER THE
OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON...SO CONDITIONS BLW
SCA LVLS ARE FCST. A WARM FRONT PASSES EARLY MON. BEHIND THE FRONT
WSW WINDS INCREASE...WITH SCA SPEEDS POSSIBLE BY AFTN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT PASSES TUE WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS SPEEDS WILL BE BLW
SCA LVLS. LIGHT WINDS WED AND THU WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. AN ARCTIC FRONT AND COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT THE WATERS IN
SOME WAY FRI AND SAT. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS ATTM...BUT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST SCA
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC/MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...MET




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