FXUS61 KOKX 161932
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
332 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017
A gusty northwest flow continues behind a cold front which has
moved well offshore. A broad area of high pressure is building
in from the west and will remain in control through next
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Have made some slight tweaks with regard to temperatures, dew
points, and winds. Peak gusts of 20 to 30 mph will continue
into the early evening.
The high deck of clouds is now thinning out and moving east.
Clear skies set in tonight region wide as the wind gusts are now
expected to hold on for the most part into the overnight. The
only exception is for far northwestern and interior zones where
winds will diminish slightly. The question is whether winds can
diminish enough for patchy frost to form in parts of the
interior. Therefore the Frost Advisory will remain in effect for
early Tuesday morning, however confidence for frost formation is
lower now due to the latest short term model trends.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The winds will slacken a touch for the morning, before the
winds gust for a few hours by the late morning and early
afternoon. The winds will then subside quickly for the remainder
of Tuesday afternoon as surface ridging builds closer from the
south. Another slightly below seasonable day with the cold pool
remaining overhead. Temps likely only topping out in the upper
50s to lower 60s once again.
Dry and seasonably cool for Tuesday night with the chance of
some patchy frost across far interior zones once again.
Confidence is marginal, so later shifts will have to evaluate
whether a Frost Advisory will be needed for late Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridging both aloft and at the surface prevails through much of
the period. Initially, a short wave trough over central Canada
and the northern plains translates east during the mid week
period, riding over top a broad, flat ridge over the southern
half of the country. This feature sends a dry cold frontal
passage through the region Thursday night. Thereafter, the upper
air pattern becomes amplified with a trough moving into the
western U.S., with heights building across the east. While
amplified, the flow is still fairly progressive with the trough
approaching the east early next week. The associated cold front
approaches Monday into next Tuesday.
Throughout the period, expect abundant sunshine and above
normal temperatures. Daytime highs will be around 70, with lows
in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front continues to move offshore, high pressure builds in
from the west. Conditions will remain VFR through the period.
Clouds will gradually dissipate from west to east late this
afternoon and this evening.
Gusty northwest flow will prevail through much of the TAF
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts may be stronger than
KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gusts may be stronger than
KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional gusts may be stronger than
KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional gusts may be stronger than
KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional gusts may be stronger than
KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts may be stronger than
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
The highest confidence in SCA wind gusts are for this evening
into the first part of the overnight as a secondary cold front
swings through. Therefore Small Craft Advisories continue
overnight for the ocean waters, and then fall below SCA levels
early Tuesday morning for the near shore waters.
Winds and seas are expected to fall below SCA levels Tue morning
for the western ocean waters. A SCA will remain in effect due
to wind gusts for the eastern ocean waters, but only through
the late morning. Otherwise seas will remain below criteria for
Tue afternoon through the mid week under the control of high
High pressure prevails through the upcoming weekend with sub SCA
conditions. Marginal SCA conditions are possible Thursday into
Thursday night on the eastern ocean waters ahead of a weak cold
front with SW winds gusting up to 20 kt.
No hydrologic issues expected through next weekend.
CT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>008.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ330-335-338-
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.
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