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FXUS66 KOTX 152131
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
231 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued warm conditions with a daily chance of isolated showers
or thunderstorms across the northern mountains are expected
through Monday. A cold front Tuesday will bring a return of dry
breezy winds. The weather Wednesday through next weekend will
likely be cool with showers mainly over the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: Another mild night is on tap for the Inland Northwest.
Widely scattered weak showers across our northern counties will
bring a slim chance of brief light rain to places like Republic,
Colville, Loon Lake, Sandpoint, and Bonners Ferry. The instability
associated with this spotty activity is shallow and quite high.
With cloud bases in the 8000 to 10000 ft range, some of the
returns picked up by radar may be virga with little rain reaching
the ground. Overnight lows will be in the 50s in most areas with a
few spots like Wenatchee, Grand Coulee, and Lewiston bottoming out
around 60.

Sunday and Monday: Temperatures will be quite warm Sun and Mon
with a flat high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific extending
into the Western US. Sunday afternoon, temperatures in the 80s
combined with rising surface dewpoints will increase our chances
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain of
the northern Cascades and the mountains of northeast Washington
the the Idaho Panhandle. The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF forecast a weak
shortwave Sunday evening into Monday morning that will have the
potential to perpetuate showers through the night across north
central Washington into the north Idaho Panhandle. Redevelopment
of scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon looks to
be mainly limited to the high terrain of the Idaho Panhandle, but
may clip Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry. /GKoch

Monday night through Saturday...The overall weather trend for the
coming week is fairly high confidence in the aggregate with all
models coming into agreement for the last few runs in depicting a
breezy and largely dry cool down from mid-week and beyond with
increasing chances of at least mountain showers and a few
afternoon and evening thunderstorms by the end of the week.

The Pacific satellite loop depicts a sprawling upper level low
over the Gulf of Alaska this afternoon. As the week wears on this
upper low will drift into western Canada and then sag southward
into the northern US bringing with it a cooler air mass. The
transition will begin on Tuesday with an initial cold front
passage in a fast zonal flow aloft as the migrating upper low
flattens any ridging over the region. this initial front will be
rather weak with Tuesday's temperatures still above average...but
with noticeable breeziness and dry conditions especially in the
deep basin where downslope off the Cascades will dessicate the air
mass for a potentially critical fire weather period Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

On Tuesday night or early Wednesday a stronger cold front will
descend out of the northwest and through the forecast area and
this day will bring the noticeable cool down from the mid 80s on
Tuesday to the mid 70s or so on Wednesday. More wind is expected
with this second front on Wednesday afternoon and evening and
while this will also be a largely dry cold front...there will be
a chance of showers or a stray thunderstorm over the northern
mountains.

For Thursday and onward into the weekend the upper low will assert
its presence as much cooler conditions...below average
temperatures with highs only in the lower to mid 70s for most
locations...and depending on overnight winds and sky
conditions...still uncertain with significant differences in model
details this far out...the possibility of near freezing
temperatures in some sheltered northern valleys Thursday through
Saturday morning. Some of the models bring what is left of the
upper low directly over the forecast area which would imply a
potential for spring-like scattered showers and low top
thunderstorms Friday and Saturday...while others simply side swipe
the forecast area suggesting a smaller chance of showers but more
wind and still continued cool temperatures. At least mountain
oriented showers and a few mountains thunderstorms leading into
the weekend are a decent bet regardless of which model turns out
correct. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The airports of the Inland Northwest will experience
mainly clear skies and light winds through 18z Sunday. There will
be scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Cascades (mainly
north of Lake Chelan) in the 20-02z time frame. Elsewhere, the
weather will be VFR. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 85 56 85 59 84 / 10 0 10 0 0 0
Coeur d'Alene 54 83 55 83 58 82 / 10 10 10 0 10 0
Pullman 52 81 54 81 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 60 89 62 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 51 88 50 89 49 92 / 20 20 20 10 10 0
Sandpoint 53 82 55 80 56 82 / 20 10 20 20 10 0
Kellogg 58 79 59 79 60 77 / 10 10 20 10 10 0
Moses Lake 57 92 58 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 61 89 61 89 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 59 89 58 91 59 87 / 10 10 10 0 0 0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$
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