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FXUS66 KOTX 250900
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will continue to be breezy with high temperatures mainly in
the 80s. The upcoming week will be be warm, with temperatures
climbing into the 80s and 90s by mid week and remain quite warm
through Friday or Saturday. There will be a low end chance for
showers near the end of the week. The Labor Day Weekend looks
warmer than average and potentially breezy.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday: Jet stream over Eastern Washington and
North Idaho gets tilted in a more northwest to southeast orientation
as ridging shows some amplification off the coast. In addition small
shortwaves drop down this flow, coupled with some moisture tied into
this flow allow for a bit more cloud cover and minor pops for very
light showers in spots today into this evening, mainly within close
proximity to the Cascade Crest and vicinity of British Columbia
Border. In addition the close proximity of the jet stream will allow
today to be another breezy day and slightly cooler compared to
yesterday in some locations. Monday the ridge amplification off the
coast continues and the axis migrates closer to the coast which
pushes the jet stream and its associated storm track away to the
north and east. This is marked in the forecast with the beginning of
a warming trend along with less cloud cover, no pops, and less wind.
/Pelatti

Tuesday through Thursday...The dry northwest flow over the region
will get pushed to the east as the ridge of high pressure
strengthens over the Pac NW Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures
will warm into the mid 80s to mid 90s. This is 5-10 degrees above
normal for lat August. In addition relative humidity will be quite
dry with poor to moderate relative humidity recoveries on the mid
slopes and ridges. This will once again hasten the drying out of
fuels and push most areas back into being susceptible to new fire
starts. Winds will be light, but mainly out of the northeast to
southeast. Model guidance is showing high level moisture advecting
up into the region from the south Wednesday and Thursday.
Moisture moving up from the south under a ridge would usually give
a concern of convection. Right now all indications are that this
moisture will be well up in the atmosphere and when the flow turns
to westerly Thursday afternoon most of that moisture should stay
south. In addition the models are not showing much in the way in
mid and upper level instability. The best chances would be
Thursday night. That is well out in the forecast and we will keep
an eye on this, but for now will put a slight chance across the
Panhandle mountains and the Blues.

Friday through Sunday...A second low will drop out of the Gulf of
Alaska and model guidance wants to bring that trough through the
Pac NW sometime between Saturday night and Sunday night. The
ensemble models are in better agreement than the deterministic
models and are going with a slower solution. The ridge will begin
to bend down Friday and Saturday before breaking down Sunday
night. While temperatures will remain warm through the weekend
they should cool off a degree or two Friday and Saturday, and
likely 3-5 degrees more on Sunday. So no big changes to the
forecast at the end of the extended period. The labor Day weekend
will begin warm and very dry Friday and Saturday, with cooler
temperatures and breezy/gusty winds possible Sunday and Monday.
Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: A weak weather system clipping the area into Sunday will
bring flat cumulus along with a band of passing mid level clouds.
This system will also bring another round of gusty west winds on
Sunday but with lower speeds compared to those observed on
Saturday. VFR conditions are expected to continue at all TAF
sites. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 77 51 81 50 85 53 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
Coeur d'Alene 76 48 79 49 84 51 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
Pullman 76 45 78 45 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 83 56 85 54 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 80 41 85 42 89 46 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 74 45 78 44 82 48 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 71 51 75 50 80 54 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 83 51 85 52 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 82 56 84 60 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 81 52 84 54 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$
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