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FXUS64 KOUN 191146 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
646 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.AVIATION...
19/12Z TAFs. IFR/MVFR conditions are expected across northern and
central Oklahoma through at least 16-18Z in areas of rain and also
after rain ends as moisture wraps up around developing surface
cyclone over southern Kansas. Will only mention TSRA at KPNC for a
brief period at beginning of forecast. With westerly winds
developing and drier air arriving behind cold front this afternoon
and evening, cigs expected to rise with VFR toward or after
21-23Z. Winds will be gusty northwest late in the forecast period
behind front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Large area of rain with embedded non-severe storms will continue to
progress eastward through the morning hours. Most of the storm
activity is expected near and north of Interstate-40 where mid-upper
level temperatures are a little colder and slightly better shear
values near MCV located south and east of KDDC. Storms have been
efficient at rainfall production, with rainfall rates of 2 to 3
inches per hour. Some areas near and north of OKC metro will have a
chance for minor flooding due to more persistence of the heavy rain
rates. Fairly progressive scenario with this initial wave of
precipitation, with some clearing and destabilization expected this
afternoon ahead of cold front, which will push through the region
this evening and overnight. Deep layer shear will be stronger late
today and tonight, yielding a higher probability for organized
severe storms. This is expected mainly south and east of Wichita
Falls and OKC metro, or southeast of I-44. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the concerns, along with the heavy rain potential.

Quiet weather and very pleasant weather for mid-August expected
Monday and Tuesday. Appears GFS is trending toward the ECM solutions
for mid to late week as far as building the ridge in over Texas,
creating more of a zonal flow pattern as opposed to northwest flow.
This should keep rain chances primarily confined to northern parts
of Oklahoma late Tuesday night and Wednesday, and also Wednesday
night and Thursday, as High Plains convection progresses more east
than southeast. We will also trend temperatures warmer for the
latter half of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 83 67 83 63 / 100 20 0 0
Hobart OK 88 67 87 64 / 40 10 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 90 71 91 67 / 60 30 10 0
Gage OK 85 63 82 58 / 20 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 83 65 82 61 / 100 20 10 0
Durant OK 89 73 89 68 / 40 60 10 0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/11
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