FXUS64 KOUN 082342

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
642 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...New AVIATION...

(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

A slight modification was made to increase the dewpoints through the
remainder of the day, with observed dewpoints remaining in the mid
70s. Aside from this, not too many changes were made to the forecast
through Thursday night and Friday morning. A MCS moving through
Kansas will enter into Oklahoma early Thursday morning. While the
likely path of this MCS will remain to the east, there is a slight
chance precipitation could extend farther west into the eastern row
of counties within the CWA. Another chance of precipitation occurs
Thursday afternoon and evening, where outflow boundaries ejected by
the earlier MCS may induce some storm development. These outflow
boundaries, coincident with an upper-level shortwave trough as well
as a large area of high instability (MUCAPE ~ 3000-4000 J/kg), may
result in some widespread thunderstorm development. Uncertainty is
high at the moment, in particular with the possible development and
positioning of these storms, since surface boundaries Thursday
afternoon post-MCS are going to be critical factors to determine
how tomorrow plays out.

In addition, heat concerns are increasing with widespread triple
digit heat indexes as well as likely heat indexes > 110F in parts of
western north Texas. Heat precautions are be necessary over the next
couple days, and a heat advisory will be likely.



(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Heat remains the primary concern the next several days. Low chances
of thunderstorms will occur periodically, although coverage and
timing are somewhat uncertain.

Midlevel temperature gradient is extensive east-to-west across the
area tomorrow, which is a negative for convection. Nevertheless,
strong surface heating and convergence along a weak front should
be enough for at least isolated storms all the way back through
western Oklahoma. Any isolated storms should diminish during the
evening. However, on the eastern periphery of building ridge, low
level flow and cold pool interaction is favorable for a southward
moving MCS or remnant MCS that could impact areas roughly from
I-35 eastward through early Friday morning. The next chance of
convection should be Saturday night as another shortwave trough on
the eastern periphery of the ridge forces a weak cold front
through, probably reinforced by convection. Eastern sections could
again see low storm chances.

Good consistency and agreement in the models for increasingly
anomalous midlevel heights/building ridge, will support hot
temperatures. Dew points may either over or under-achieve some,
similar to the last hot pattern, and this may impact the spatial
coverage of the most dangerous heat. We'll finalize details on a
Heat Advisory shortly, but the most concerning day currently looks
to be Saturday when low level flow veers and even hotter plume
advects over the area, bringing several locations to 110F or greater
heat indices. Fortunately during this period wet bulb globe
temperatures should be tempered some by modest southerly wind, but
still not enough lower the concern of heat-related illness.

Sunday could see temporary slight relief by a few degrees, but
still above normal through the middle of next week.



(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Storms are expected to develop in Kansas and may develop into a
line or complex of storms and move southeast. Although the highest
chances are to the northeast of KPNC, there is some potential of
these storms affecting KPNC Thursday morning. Otherwise, we expect
generally only mid-high clouds at the other TAF sites.


Oklahoma City OK 93 76 98 75 / 0 0 20 20
Hobart OK 98 77 104 76 / 0 0 20 20
Wichita Falls TX 96 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 99 75 103 72 / 10 10 10 10
Ponca City OK 95 74 98 73 / 0 30 30 30
Durant OK 93 76 96 76 / 20 0 0 10


OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 PM CDT Saturday for

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ086-



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