FXUS64 KOUN 260001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
701 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018



MVFR-level clouds over central and north central Oklahoma will
move east of these areas this evening. VFR conditions will then
return through the daytime Thursday; however, MVFR fog is possible
for a few hours around sunrise in central and north central
Oklahoma. North winds will become light this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/

The primary forecast issue is the risk for severe weather next

Showers will continue to exit southeast Oklahoma this afternoon.
For tonight, cold temperatures are expected with light winds and
clearing skies. With a seasonably dry air mass in place, low
temperatures are expected to range from the mid-30Fs to low 40Fs-
-around 15F below average for this time of year.

For Thursday evening, a quick-moving shortwave trough and
attendant cold front may produce some scattered showers. Forecast
soundings indicate limited elevated instability, so the chance of
thunder appears to be low. Showers are forecast to develop across
northwest Oklahoma and move south-southeastward into central and
south central Oklahoma through the evening hours. Any rainfall
amounts should be light.

For Friday to Sunday, temperatures will gradually warm up as mid-
level heights rise and southerly winds increase across the
Southern Plains.

Toward the early and middle part of next week, a pattern change
is forecast across the contiguous United States. The GFS and
ECMWF (and their ensemble means) indicate a longwave trough will
develop across the western U.S, which will place the Southern
Plains within southwest flow aloft. Persistent, southerly low-
level flow will result in increasing boundary layer moisture.
Synoptically, this is a favorable pattern for unsettled weather,
including strong to severe thunderstorms, with increasing vertical
wind shear and instability across the Southern Plains.

Currently, it appears the greatest potential for any severe
weather would be Tuesday and/or Wednesday with a sharpening dry
line on Tuesday and a dry line, cold front, and potential triple
point on Wednesday. More specific information will depend on
factors such as the timing of any associated shortwave trough(s)
and convective contamination. The bottom line--there is a chance
of severe weather next week, but the overall threat will evolve
over time.



Oklahoma City OK 41 71 46 70 / 0 0 30 0
Hobart OK 40 74 45 72 / 0 0 30 0
Wichita Falls TX 43 74 49 73 / 0 0 20 0
Gage OK 38 71 39 72 / 0 20 10 0
Ponca City OK 38 69 42 70 / 10 10 20 0
Durant OK 45 69 51 72 / 0 0 20 0




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