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FXUS64 KOUN 150345 AAC
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1045 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.AVIATION...
15/06Z TAFs. Will continue MVFR conditions first several hours of
forecast with conditions improving from northwest Oklahoma,
southeastward late tonight and tomorrow morning. Additional
precipitation expected to stay north of KPNC and KWWR first part
of forecast, and south and east of KSPS toward and after 12Z.
Northerly winds will decrease through the day tomorrow, especially
over the northern half of Oklahoma.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018/

AVIATION...
15/00Z TAFs. IFR to MVFR conditions across the region this evening
into the overnight hours, with main restrictions being areas of
drizzle and low cigs. Brief period of light freezing rain and/or
sleet possible at KWWR early this evening. Improving conditions
expected after 09Z with drier air deepening and allowing
conditions to transition from MVFR to VFR for a majority of the
day tomorrow. Northerly winds will stay up overnight but weaken
across northern parts of Oklahoma in the morning and in the
afternoon rest of region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 546 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018/

UPDATE...
Reduced the chance of rain across southeast Oklahoma this evening
and added a mention of drizzle across the area. Updated hourly
temperature/wind/dew point forecast based on current trends.

DISCUSSION...
A strong cold front continues to move southward this evening.
With showers exiting southeast Oklahoma, opted to reduce the
chance for rain markedly across this area for this evening. Also
added a mention of drizzle across the area as the radar mosaic and
observations suggest drizzle has developed across many locations.

With an approaching mid-level jet, there is increasing ascent
across the northern half of Oklahoma the next few hours.
Scattered showers have developed north of the Oklahoma City metro.
Additional precipitation is approaching far northwest Oklahoma.

Forecast soundings across northwest Oklahoma suggest some sleet
may be possible. Freezing drizzle may also occur once temperatures
drop below freezing with a low-level saturated layer.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cold front will continue to push south out of the area this
afternoon and evening. A few strong storms still possible across
far southeast late this afternoon, with light rain, possibly
mixing with some sleet or snow across northwest Oklahoma. Although
can not rule out a slick spot on an elevated surface, do not
anticipate any accumulations of significant travel issues. Models
have hinted at an elevated band of showers and storms farther
north across I-44 corridor by late evening. Latest runs still show
this band of precip, but now farther south across south central
into southeast Oklahoma

The other issue will be the cold. Will upgrade the freeze watch
to a freeze warning for late tonight as temps across northwest
into western and even parts of central Oklahoma drop to between 30
and 32 degrees. Some isolated locations may drop into the upper
20s by Monday morning.

Cooler day expected on Monday with lingering rain chances along
and south of I-44. Rain chances continue through Tuesday across
southern Oklahoma and north Texas in an area of isentropic
ascent/waa. Some concern for additional flooding, in some of these
areas given antecedent conditions and will go ahead and issue a
flood watch for tonight and Monday morning and will need to
monitor for possible extension of the flood watch as we go
forward.

Another possible freeze expected across northwest Oklahoma
Tuesday morning, and if skies can clear, frost farther south.
Perhaps into the I-44 corridor of central and southwest Oklahoma.

Most areas should see a break in the rain as go through into
Wednesday, but upper low to our west will keep some southwesterly
flow over the southern Plains. Models depict several minor waves
traversing the area along with increasing waa as we go into
Wednesday night and Thursday, when rain chances once again
increase.

Another weaker cold front pushes through Friday and
Friday night as a larger-scale trough drops southeast out of
central Canada. This should bring an end to the rain chances, at
least for a few days, leading to a dry and pleasant weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 35 49 39 55 / 20 10 20 10
Hobart OK 34 49 38 56 / 20 10 20 10
Wichita Falls TX 39 50 42 50 / 30 30 50 50
Gage OK 30 46 31 60 / 40 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 34 49 34 58 / 40 0 0 0
Durant OK 41 47 43 48 / 60 70 80 90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for OKZ004>012-
014>018-021-022-024.

Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for OKZ048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

10/11
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