FXUS63 KPAH 260735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
235 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

Main weather maker for the short term will move through within the
first three to six hours of the forecast period, associated with the
passage of the cold front through the WFO PAH forecast area. This
will include post-frontal elevated convection, which will become
more isolated toward 12z Wednesday.

Stronger dry/cold air advection will follow within 3-5 hours
after the frontal passage this morning.

A minor shortwave near eastern Idaho this morning will rotate south
through the base of the broad northern U.S. trough and sharpen the
trough as it moves over the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley. The ageostrophic response will bring a few showers into the
southeast Pennyrile early Thursday afternoon until the wave can move
over and east of the area.

Dry and tranquil weather will then dominate through the remainder
of the short term forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

Confidence starts out high through the weekend and then decreases
for the first half of next week.

A sprawling ridge of high pressure aloft will extend from the
southern Rockies eastward to the southeast Atlantic Coast Saturday.
Our region will be on the southern fringe of the westerlies with
high pressure at the surface. By Sunday lee cyclogenesis will
develop over eastern Colorado with a surface trough extending
northeast from there into Iowa. This will allow south winds to
develop over our region as the surface high is pushed to the east
coast. Despite the southerly flow, moisture will be limited and we
will remain dry for the entire weekend.

The 00Z model consensus has moisture returning to the area with
strengthening south winds Monday into Tuesday. It looks like
mainly a diurnal chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, but
Monday may get a little bump in coverage due to the initial moist
advection through the region.

By Wednesday there is some decent spread in the models with
respect to the location of a cold front. The 00Z GFS and 12Z
ECMWF each bring it and good coverage of QPF into the region
Wednesday evening. Unfortunately the 00Z ECMWF has diverged from
this scenario and now keeps us relatively dry. Forecast confidence
in precipitation chances is quite low here, but we should remain
warm through the period.

As for temperatures, we will start out below normal Saturday and
climb back above normal Monday through at least Wednesday. Highs
in the 80s will be common next week.


Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Front will push southeast across the area overnight. SSW winds up
to 10 kts ahead of it, NW winds becoming N, with some gusts 18 to
22 kts or so expected behind the front. Around 09z the front
should be along a KEVV- KPAH line, clearing west KY by 12z.
Scattered showers and a few storms possible up to fropa, but
chance too low to include in the terminals. There may be a period
of MVFR cigs along and behind the front for a few hours. Otherwise
expect mainly VFR conditions ahead of the front, and from mid
morning Wednesday on into the afternoon hours.




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