FXUS63 KPAH 050948
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
348 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF DRIZZLE...FOG AND LIGHT RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE UPPER LOW...NEAR KANSAS CITY AS
OF 09Z...MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE
LOW...BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY BY 06Z AND FEW IF ANY CLOUDS WILL BE LEFT BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN WILL FALL...BUT PLACED 20-40 POPS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND THEN DRIED IT OUT ALONG I-64
AFTER 18Z. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z MONDAY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF
WEST KENTUCKY. GENERALLY STAYED UNDER GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR TODAYS HIGHS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WHERE
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FOR
MONDAY...SO IT SHOULD BE SUNNY AND MILD WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 IN MOST
PLACES. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SIGNIFICANT COLD SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE BOTTLED UP JUST BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO JUMP UP TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...AFTER UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF STILL FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE INITIAL
PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...AS IT PHASES WITH/GETS ABSORBED WITH
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO/NEAR OUR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE AND BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...IT WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY ENOUGH THAT HARDLY ANY QPF
IS GENERATED...AND WHAT IS GENERATED...IS PROGGED TO BE TO OUR
NORTH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
SLOWLY MOVING THE TROUGH TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MOVING IT OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN
THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE A BIT WARMER...THE 00Z RUN
CAME IN COLDER...SO SOME LIGHT SNOW DOES LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT AGAIN...WHATEVER FALLS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
ANYWAY...AS QPF HAS BEEN SCANT NO MATTER WHAT MODEL OR MODEL RUN YOU
LOOK AT.

DUE TO THE FAST NATURE OF THE GFS...MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES THROUGH...A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE DOWN INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A LARGE VORTEX NEAR/OVER HUDSON BAY...EACH ONE TRYING TO BRING
COLDER AIR WITH IT. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW EACH ONE OF
THESE WILL BEHAVE EXACTLY. FOR EXAMPLE...ONE OF THE MOST PRONOUNCED
DISTURBANCES IS FORECAST TO CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST
AND POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS.

THE 00Z GFS SHOWS SOME MAJOR COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
ARRIVING BY FRI/SAT...BUT MIGRATING EAST BY SUNDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR BUT IS NOT AS COLD AND SHOWS THIS TROUGH MORE
TRANSIENT...AND MOVES THE TROUGH AND COLD AIR OUT OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY INSTEAD. LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES...THERE DEFINITELY
WILL BE SOME COLD AIR THAT FILTERS DOWN INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT COOL DOWN BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW COLD IT WILL
GET AND HOW LONG IT IS GOING TO STICK AROUND.

DESPITE ALL THAT...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEYOND WEDNESDAY. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY...THE GFS TRIES TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE/RAIN INTO THE
AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLOSED LOW DOWN IN OLD MEXICO. BUT...THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRETTY
MUCH SHUNTS ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL IFR DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE EVANSVILLE
TRI STATE ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK...BUT WELL DEFINED SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. MAY SEE SOME CLEARING GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTH NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY BACK TO DUE NORTH BY THE
END OF THE DAY. SPEEDS TODAY WILL BE UNDER 10KTS...AND NORTH WINDS
WILL BE COME LIGHT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY CALM BY 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$













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