FXUS63 KPAH 250737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
237 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Scattered/elevated convection over ptns srn/cntl MO will
increase/advect into and over the PAH FA with time, as height
falls spill down the Mississippi river valley out ahead of a mean
long wave trof of energy racing from the High Plains to the Great
Lakes states. Increasing PW's in the atmospheric column means
heavy rain will be primary hazard in this enviroment lacking
strength of field in instability and shear through Monday. Chances
for stronger storms may increase Tuesday, as the mean long wave
trof axis brings a core of upper level westerlies as it drives a
cold front into/across the PAH FA during the heating hours.

Dew points start to nudge back into the 70s from the south today,
reaching the 70s everywhere by tmrw, where they will stay until
the cold front's passage Tuesday-Tuesday night. They'll fall back
into/thru the 60s thereafter, with everyone in the lower 60s by
12Z Wed. Lows mirror their move, in the upper 60s-lower 70s
through Monday night, falling back into the lower 60s for Tuesday
night. Highs seemingly behave, abeit in an increasingly muggy
environment as humidity creeps back up, residing in the lower 80s
due to clouds/rain chances early, with mid 80s possible in the
south in the pre frontal heating zone Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

A fairly tranquil weather pattern should prevail through the long
term with little of significance to discuss. Forecast confidence is
higher than average with good overall model agreement.

In the wake of a cold frontal passage on Tuesday, high pressure over
the Central Plains is forecast to shift east across the Mississippi
Valley and into the Ohio Valley by Friday. In the upper levels, the
region will be situated in a northwesterly flow pattern between a
western ridge and eastern trough. The latest operational models are
in good agreement on an extended dry period once the precipitation
comes to an end Tuesday night, though there may be a few lingering
showers early Wednesday morning near the Arkansas and Tennessee
state lines.

One day to watch is Saturday. The initialized NBM forecast is dry to
start the weekend. However, the operational ECMWF, CMC, and several
GFS ensemble members suggest the potential for a few showers with
the passage of a reinforcing cold front on Saturday. Thus, a chance
of precipitation may eventually need to be added to Saturday if
future model evidence indicates such.

Temperatures through the period should average below seasonal norms.
Daytime highs are forecast to range from 80 to 85 degrees, with lows
at night in the upper 50s and lower 60s. An early taste of fall, it


Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

A gradual deterioration in flight conditions can be anticipated
during this forecast period, as moisture/humidity increases with
the slow return northward of a warm sector boundary. Drops to
IFR/MVFR cat cigs are forecast for southern terminals (KCGI/KPAH)
with showers/vicinity potentially likewise introducing vsbys
restrictions. Further north (KMVN/KEVV/KOWB), declines into
restricted cats for cigs/vsbys will take awhile longer, also
accompanied by showers/vicinity mention, but the restricted cats
decline may be potentially delayed until the planning period or
later in the night.




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