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FXUS63 KPAH 242335
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
635 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

Update for 00Z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

With high pressure still in control, most of the area is seeing a
few pop up type clouds with some isolated convection southwest and
west of the forecast area. The ridge finally breaks down tonight
and into Friday. The combination of return flow and a weak trough
approaching the area will bring a return chance for showers and
storms through Saturday evening. The models do want to bring the
convection in earlier in the day Friday and have added chance
pops in the Ozark foothills Friday morning, progressing east
through the day. A chance for showers and storms lingers into
Saturday with precipitation moving out Saturday evening.

Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the mid to
upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. During peak heating
times on Friday, heat indices will nudge toward the 90 degree
mark. On Saturday heat indices will rise into the lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

The forecast late this holiday weekend and next week will hinge on
the movement of the tropical system over the Gulf. There is still
not enough run-to-run model continuity to specify the timing of rain
in our area. Warm and humid conditions will persist, regardless of
the storm track.

There are a couple of notable model trends that help with precip
timing. The past several runs of both the gfs/ecmwf have deepened
the strength of the system. The 12z gfs is about 15 mb deeper at 12z
Monday than runs 24 hours ago. In response to the stronger center,
the models indicate a stronger circular ridge around the periphery
of the system. This in turn has resulted in slightly lower pops in
our area. In fact, the forecast model blend yields dry weather
Sunday night and Memorial Day for all except the Pennyrile region of
west KY. The forecast will trend a bit drier through Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday, most guidance indicates an upstream kicker shortwave
will force the tropical system to eject northeast. As to how much of
the system is still intact and whether it comes close to our region,
future models will bear that out. There is still no indication of
significant impacts locally, but convection indirectly related to
the circulation would contain heavy rain potential in the moisture-
laden atmosphere. The forecast will have the highest pops Wednesday,
still just shy of the likely category.

Temps will show little daily change in the stagnant air mass. Highs
will be mainly in the upper 80s Sunday through Tuesday, but
potentially cooler Wednesday due to possible clouds and rain.
Overnight lows will be mainly around 70, similar to the dew points
expected much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

Isolated shower and storms west of POF will dissipate this evening
with only high cirrus over the rest of the area. A few isolated
showers and storms are possible toward sunrise mainly west of
Mississippi River. Coverage will increase around 18Z over most of
the region except near EVV and OWB which should stay dry through
the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PS
SHORT TERM...ML
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...PS
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