FXUS63 KPAH 181842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
142 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

The center of high pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the
Mid Atlantic and Northeast U.S. tonight through Tuesday. Dry
weather as a result. Temperatures will remain near normal. The
models move upper level energy from over the Plains 12z Wednesday
to over west TN (roughly) 06z Thursday. Showers will move into the
area ahead of this feature late Tuesday night, and progress from
west to east Wednesday, ending across west KY Wednesday evening.
Confidence in timing has increased as the ECMWF has come on board
maintaining this feature and keeping it progressive, vs. breaking
it off and never reaching our area (seen in prior 2 days worth of
runs). Looks like about one to two tenths overall on QPF.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Confidence is fairly good for the extended with models coming into
agreement for the most part.

High pressure will be overtaking the region for the start of the
extended in the wake of a cold front and upper level trough. As the
high builds in temperatures should not only reach normally but rise
above normal as we head into the weekend. The flow aloft will remain
northwest with little impact on the local weather. The high will
allow for a warm up for sure. So dry conditions are expected to
prevail in the extended at least until late in the weekend. The
timing of the next chance of rain is in a bit of flux among the
models. They do agree on a weather system arriving late in the
weekend and possibly as late as Monday depending on the model of
choice. The main thing is they agree on this system but the arrival
time varies about 12 hours or so. The upper level ridge will slowly
drift to the east as the next upper level trough moves into the
region late in the weekend. A surface reflection of a surface low
and a warm front will move into the region with this upper level
system. Forecast soundings do indicate there is a chance of thunder
with LI's going slightly negative and CAPE values approaching 1k
j/kg2. Also K index values around 30c. Wind profiles do not look to
intimidating at this time but I am certain things will change with
time. So we will keep a close eye on this considering the season.


Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

VFR conditions through 18z Tuesday. Light winds. A few high clouds
from time to time.




Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page