FXUS63 KPAH 052330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
630 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

In general, looking like a precip free, but hot, weekend across
the quad state as a large dome of high pressure in the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere gradually builds east from the
Plains into the MS River Valley. A weak cold front will slip south
through the region late tonight and early Saturday, but there will
be little low level convergence along the front. In addition,
looks to be very little, if any, mid/upper level support as the
high begins to build eastward. Thus, expecting a dry frontal
passage for the most part.

Saturday looks to be a fairly uncomfortable day, with increasing
heat and humidity. Somewhat less humid air will be lagging the
front Saturday, but could give us a bit of relief by Sunday as
surface high pressure pushes farther southeast through the Great
Lakes region. Would not be surprised to see heat indices jump into
the mid/upper 90s at many locations on Saturday afternoon, with
some readings pushing 100 over portions of southeast MO, closer to
the H50 ridge axis. Heat indices may get knocked back a tad for
Sunday, if we can manage to get some lower dew points pushed down
this way. However, with the upper ridge continuing to build east
across the region, afternoon temperatures will likely reach the
lower half of the 90s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

High pressure and the upper-level ridge continue into Monday,
keeping the Quad State dry and hot with temperatures again reaching
near 90. Tropical Storm Cristobal is expected to move further inland
Monday resulting in cloud cover increasing through the day and outer
rainbands approaching Southeast Missouri from Arkansas around the
evening hours.

Models generally take the center of Cristobal northward into
Missouri. From there it is expected to interact with a mid-level
trough that will reach the Plains early Tuesday. This trough is
expected to steer Cristobal northeastward towards the Great Lakes.
The Ozark Foothills is likely to receive at least a couple inches of
rainfall. However, for locations farther east, the difference
between the storm center tracking along the eastern and western
portions of the National Hurricane Center forecast cone could be the
difference between less than an inch of rain to several inches of
rain. A slower than forecast northward progression of Cristobal, or
faster eastern progression of the trough, would make the track
farther east more likely. More certain is the timing; the Monday
night through Tuesday night time frame should contain the heaviest
rainfall and greatest potential for thunderstorms. Highs Tuesday and
Wednesday are likely to be limited to the lower 80s.

Some lingering showers/storms are possible Wednesday between
Cristobal and the trough. After collaborating with neighbors, PoPs
have been removed from Thursday as high pressure has become more
likely. Some of the uncertainty with Thursday involved an upper-
level shortwave low likely to cross north of the forecast area
Thursday into Friday. The GFS anticipates more substantial
development from this than the ECMWF. Temperatures are expected to
remain seasonably cool for the remainder of the work week before
ridging starts to build back in.


Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Clouds should scatter tonight, and numerical guidance/persistence
forecast suggests a possibility of patchy fog in/around terminals
again late tonight, so will include its mention. Other than that,
should have VFR conditions for the remainder of the package.




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