FXUS63 KPAH 120932
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
332 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...
GFS PICKS UP ON UPSTREAM PCPN AS WELL AS ANY MODEL. IT MOVES IT
NORTH ACROSS FA TODAY...AND ELEVATED INDICES SUGGEST UPGLIDE IS
SUFFICIENT IN OUR ERN 1/3 TO SUPPORT MENTION OF THUNDER. ALL MOS
YIELDS CATEGORICAL POPS.

UPPER LOW ROTATES ACROSS TN VALLEY TONIGHT-SAT. WITH IT WILL COME
SCT ANY TIME SHOWERS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE SOUTHWARD
AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. BY SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WORKS DOWN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE BY THEN DEPARTED LOW AND INFILTRATES THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...EFFECTIVELY ENDING POPS MORE CERTAINLY BY SUN NIGHT.

TEMPS UNDERNEATH THE CLOUDS/UPPER LOW WILL BE COOL/DAMP WITH
COLLAB CONSENSUS YIELDING 50S FOR HIGHS AND 40S FOR LOWS IN
GENERAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE DAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BRINGING LOW VFR OR
EVEN MVFR CEILINGS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF LOW
END VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. A DISCOMBOBULATED LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO WESTERLY
PREDOMINANT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$




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