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FXUS63 KPAH 172055
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
255 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 111 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

We are definitely in the warm sector today, at least in the
southern half of the PAH forecast area, where temps soared well
above forecast levels...well into the 50s and 60s. As a result,
short term models now forecast somewhat warmer temps overall
through most of the short term period.

A sfc trof will continue to move into the region late today and
tonight, providing increasing clouds from north to south, light
and variable winds, and a possibility of patchy fog late in the
night, primarily south of the OH River. After daybreak Sun, a weak
surface cold front will be on the way southeastward through the
region as the parent mid level shortwave approaches. By Sun
afternoon, there may be measurable rainfall west of the MS River.
Widespread rain is progged to expand eastward across the remainder
of the region Sun night as the shortwave traverses our region,
and a second surface wave develops somewhere over the southern
half. Expect a rapid decrease in PoPs west to east during the day
Mon with the passage of the main trof axis. Up to two tenths of an
inch is forecast with this event.

Highs through Mon will be back to the 40s/lower 50s, with lows
mostly in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Models and guidance continue to suggest moderating temps in the long
term due to a transition from NW flow aloft driven by an East Coast
trof, to a mid level ridge Tuesday through Thursday. Dry weather is
forecast with high pressure mostly in control. Focus then turns to a
mid level short wave the models have been forecasting to move from
the West Coast Thursday morning to the Plains by midday Friday. We
favored a 00z/12z blend of the ECMWF/CMC and their ensemble mean
solutions with this system. The 12z GFS is more in line now as well.
Overall, the models continue to vary with where the best moisture
and focus for lift will be with this feature as it moves east Friday
through Saturday. We will maintain a small chance of rain mainly
west of the MS Friday afternoon. Pops are expected to peak Friday
night then diminish from west to east Saturday. Even though overall
models depictions are in line, will go no higher than chance PoPs
for now given a continued variance in the spatial and temporal, not
to mention the fact this is a Day 7 and beyond forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the daylight hours today,
with southerly to southeasterly light winds. Winds will be light and
variable and MVFR conditions will be common overnight, as a surface
pressure trof develops across the region and cigs drop from north to
south. By around daybreak, IFR cigs are possible over mainly
southern IL and adjacent parts of southwestern Indiana and
southeastern MO. Pcpn should hold off for the 24 TAF period, and
patchy fog is possible late in the night, but is not currently
forecast at the TAF sites.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB
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