FXUS61 KPBZ 140730
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
330 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF SHOWERS MAY STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE WANE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUEDTO ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLANK
OF MID/UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN GENERAL RELATIVELY
LIGHT, AND WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS PROJECTED FOR TODAY, HAVE
OPTED TO DROP THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD SHIFT, COLDER AIR WILL WRAP OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SUFFICIENTLY SO FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OVER COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE, THE DAY, AND NIGHT WILL
FEATURE DWINDLING PRECIPIATION PROBABILITIES AND TEMPERATURES AT,
OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED, TO SCATTERED RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF EXITING
LOW PRESSURE. THESE SHOULD BE GONE BY MONDAY EVE WITH WEAKENING
UPSLOPE AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE REGIME. SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE OUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN VA WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
TODAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREDOMINATE AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER AT HLG...FKL...AND
DUJ THIS MORNING...WHERE STEADIER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION SET UP
LAST EVENING AND ALLOWED FOR ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
POOL. WITH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING...SOME WET SNOW MAY
MIX IN WITH RAIN AT DUJ. WIND HAS SLACKENED CONSIDERABLY FROM
YESTERDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. GENERALLY VFR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE YOUGHIOGHENY,
CONEMAUGH, AND MUSKINGUM RIVERS. OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER RIVER FLOOD
WATCHES WERE DROPPED OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER OHIO BASIN, INCLUDING THE MONONGAHELA
AND ALLEGHENY RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE RISES, BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15/33
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