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FXUS61 KPBZ 211308
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
808 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain returns today with the passage of a cold front. Periodic
rain chances will continue through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Quick update to adjust hourly temperatures and bump up wind
gusts along the cold front as it begins to cross late this
morning and through the afternoon. Previous follows..


Cold front will cross most of the area this morning, clearing
the southeastern ridge by late this afternoon. A large portion
of the rain will fall right along or behind the surface
boundary, in close proximity with the best large scale ascent
and deep moisture. Upper level support with the boundary is not
impressive and would expect the coverage and intensity of the
rain to decrease today, as the boundary outruns the meager lift.
Enough low-level cold air will move in behind the front that
temperatures will begin to fall during the day. Even so, most
places should have highs in the 60s, if not reaching 70 degrees,
which could still allow for a record high or two to be broken.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front will stall just to the south of the area tonight,
allowing additional moisture to get pumped into the region in
the southwest flow aloft. While temperatures will remain above
normal, there could be some precipitation type issues north and
west of Pittsburgh. Models are still showing some disagreement
in the temperature structure, and have continued mention of snow
and freezing rain, which is dependent on whether the low-level
cold air manages to drive far enough to the south. This threat
should be primarily late tonight and Thursday morning.

The cold front will finally shift southward on Thursday, but the
next front will begin to move in from the west Friday afternoon.
This will bring more rain to the area. Temperatures will remain
warm into Friday, with highs in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Several shortwaves will pass through the mean flow and could
result in additional hydrologic concerns through the weekend.
Model differences certainly do exist during this time, but rain
chances were kept in the likely range for much of the weekend. A
definitive cold front should finally move across the region
Sunday, eventually yielding dry and cooler weather into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deterioration to MVFR/patchy IFR is expected as a cold front
crosses the area today. Showers are expected with the front,
along with a gusty wind shift from SW to WNW.

A low level jet ahead of the approaching front should also
result in LLWS tonight until the jet weakens/exits Wed morning.

OUTLOOK...
Periodic restrictions are expected through Sunday with a series
of crossing low pressure areas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record daily highs were achieved yesterday at all climate
sites.

Location Old Record New Record
Pittsburgh 68 (1891) 78
Zanesville 71 (1939) 78
Morgantown 70 (1994) 78
DuBois 61 (2016) 72
Wheeling 68 (1930/2016) 78
New Philadelphia 69 (1994) 77

The records at Pittsburgh, Zanesville, and Wheeling also
established new record high temperatures for the month of
February, while a tie was achieved at New Philadelphia.

For Wednesday, DuBois has the best chance of achieving a record
high temperature for February 21 (60 set in 2016), while other
sites are currently expected to come up short.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
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