FXUS61 KPBZ 240032
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
832 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Cold flow off the lakes will continue to support some isolated
showers for areas north of I 80 tonight. Otherwise, cool, dry
weather is expected before rain chances return on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The late eve featured POP reduction for areas N of PIT as per
the latest radar and high res. model trends. Cold advection
upsloping off the Lakes will be inhibited by a relatively warm
boundary layer and by a falling inversion level so rain, and
eventual snow showers will not be widespread or problematic.
No major change was needed for the seasonably cool low forecast,
although the elevations greater than 1500 ft were tweaked down
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will build back into the region under
northwest flow aloft and any precipitating activity will
diminish by mid-day Wednesday as flow weakens and subsidence
increases. Temperatures will remain below average.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
By Friday, a complex weather pattern begins to take shape that
will bring several chances of rain through the weekend into the
early portions of next week. A strong surface low will track up
the east coast beginning on Friday. Confidence is low regarding
the exact timing or coverage of precipitation as model
solutions diverge significantly. The GFS is more progressive and
farther east with the track of the surface low than the ECM/CMC
solutions. Compromising between the solutions, have PoPs
gradually increasing through the day on Friday from the south. A
rain/snow mix along the higher elevations will be possible at
the onset of precipitation and maybe even through the entire
event- dependent on the low track and depth of cold air.
Details will become more clear as the low gets sampled better in
the coming days.
After the aforementioned surface low ejects northward into
Canada, rain chances will continue as several strong shortwaves
embedded within the deep eastern CONUS troughing move through
the region. Snow will likely be limited to higher elevations as
surface temperatures will serve as the primary limiting factors.
Below average temperatures will continue through the early
portions of next week.
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the period for all sites
with the exception of FKL and DUJ, where MVFR CIGs are expected
to develop tonight and persist into Wednesday afternoon. Gusty
wind will diminish this evening.
Restriction potential returns Fri night/Sat with low pressure.
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