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FXUS61 KPBZ 202202
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
602 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain warm, and generally dry weather
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Changes for the early eve update were primarily cosmetic as
isolated showers will fade as the sun sets and as the supporting
disturbance digging toward the mid atlantic states progresses.

Given the presence of a weak front sagging across the I 76
corridor, and the pooling of decent surface dewpoints near the
boundary, have maintained an extensive fog mention given
expectations of fading cloud cover and light wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As the aforementioned disturbance digs eastwards, mid/upper
ridging will enhance over the Eastern U.S. in response to Western
troughing and TS Jose. Dry and warm weather will thus prevail
into the weekend. Expect temperature about a dozen degrees above
the averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Little change is foreseen in the overall circulation pattern
through at least Tuesday, with the western trough/eastern
ridging pattern persisting. By early next week, some models
suggest that Hurricane Maria may track near the Atlantic
seaboard. Moisture on the very outer periphery of the
circulation may get pushed into our higher elevations on
easterly flow by Tuesday, resulting in some light showers. Will
add a slight chance PoP to the grids for this possibility into
Wednesday. The upper ridge may start to be knocked down by and
approaching Upper Midwest shortwave by the end of the period,
but any frontal precipitation may not arrive until after
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Isolated showers with a weak shortwave should end this evening.
VFR should deteriorate to MVFR to IFR in fog most ports
overnight/early Thu morning as crossover temps are reached, and
as moisture pools along a weakening sfc boundary across Wrn PA
through Nrn OH. A building ridge and mixing should return VFR
Thu morning through the rest of the TAF period.

.Outlook...
Other than local morning fog, no widespread restrictions
expected under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
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