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FXUS66 KPDT 182119 AAA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
205 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. Upper ridge over the area.
Overall skies will remain clear tonight into Tuesday. The
exception will be some low level moisture trapped under the
inversion. Had more freezing fog and low clouds last night and
today than the past few days and think this trend will continue.
Surface high pressure over the Columbia basin with northerly
upslope flow will likely develop low clouds over central Oregon
again tonight vicinity Bend Redmond and Madras. Patchy freezing
fog will likely develop again tonight the basin especially along
the rivers. Lows temps remain cold with 20s for most locations.
Tue should be similar to today with mostly sunny skies. Areas of
low clouds and fog will slowly dissipate during the day. Highs
mainly in the upper 40s and 50s. An upper low will then move into
California and Nevada Wednesday into Thursday with an upper level
trough extending northward over the region. This will increase
the cloud cover across the forecast area. Precipitation should be
fairly light and limited mostly to southern and central Oregon.
Freezing levels are 7-9k feet with southerly flow so expecting
rain with only high mountain snow. 94

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday...Models are in good
agreement through the period with only minor differences in timing.
Upper level ridge will weaken and move east of the area Friday
afternoon as the next upper level trough begins to affect our
western CWA by late Friday afternoon. Precipitation will spread
over the rest of the area Friday night and continue into Saturday.
Snow levels around 6000-6500 feet are expected to fall to around
3500 feet by Sunday morning and begin a rebound Monday. There could
be some lingering showers over our eastern mountains Sunday,
otherwise most locations will be dry as an upper level ridge builds
in the wake of the aforementioned trough. By Monday, the ECMWF is a
little faster with the next system showing showers developing over
central Oregon by late afternoon while the GFS holds the
precipitation off until late evening. Daytime highs will be near to
slightly above normal through the period. Earle

&&

.AVIATION...Previous discussion...18Z TAFS...VFR conditions will
prevail through the period. However, MVFR with occasional IFR
conditions can be expected to redevelop overnight at KPSC, KRDM, and
KBDN due to fog and low clouds. Conditions in these areas are
expected to improve around 18-19Z. Winds will be less than 10 kts,
except 10-15 kts in the afternoon and early evening at KBDN and
KRDM. Earle

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 27 52 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 30 54 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 26 53 27 55 / 0 0 0 10
YKM 26 57 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 26 55 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 25 57 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 23 54 28 52 / 0 0 10 10
LGD 27 55 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 31 59 32 53 / 0 0 0 10
DLS 32 55 33 54 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

94/81/81
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