FXUS61 KPHI 050922
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
422 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST FOR TODAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PASSING OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
MAY ARRIVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BROUGHT
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. RADAR STILL HAS SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO OUR WEST.
THIS COULD CLIP OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING, BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, RANGING FROM A TRACE TO
SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING BUT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TO BRING CLEARING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL GIVE US
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL MEAN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOWER
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ON
MONDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY MILD WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE
50S IN OUR REGION. MAXIMUM READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH ONLY THE
MIDDLE 40S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

THE MID LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR KANSAS CITY EARLY THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD, BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE BEFORE
PASSING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AT THAT TIME. WE ARE ANTICIPATING FEW
CLOUDS AND NO PRECIPITATION.

AFTER THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE PASSES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY, A
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE EXPECTING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVERHEAD AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH
THE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION AT
THAT TIME. BASED ON THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE PROFILES, WE MAY SEE
A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THEN
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

WE'LL LEAN TOWARD THE SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW, WE WILL NOT BUY INTO THE GFS'S SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE RESULTING COASTAL LOW FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE WEEK ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORTH
WITH A TREND TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
YESTERDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CAUSED SOME LIGHT FOG AND REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE NOW MIXING DOWN TO THE GROUND AND BRINGING DRIER AIR.
THEREFORE, VSBYS ARE IMPROVING AND THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS REMAINING
AT THIS HOUR ARE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. ALL TAF
SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR. LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY EXITING OFF TO THE
EAST COULD STILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SC CIGS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ELSEWHERE
MID AND HIGHS CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL BRING CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL BE
CLEAR WITH GOOD VSBYS AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DROP
THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN TO OUR REGION AT THAT TIME. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES MAY BE REDUCED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE, NOW INTENSIFYING WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST,
WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS TODAY WILL BE N TO
NE 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S. WINDS AND SEAS COULD
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS
THIS MORNING, MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE. WE WILL NOT RAISE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL AND
SHORT LIVED. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME W
TO NW OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KT.

WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR REGION
DURING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...RPW
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/RPW
MARINE...IOVINO/RPW


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