FXUS65 KPIH 152001
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
201 PM MDT MON MAR 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE SOUTHEAST
IDAHO AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A PRETTY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THEREFORE SOME MENTION OF PATCHY MORNING FOG SEEMS
PRUDENT EVEN THOUGH THE AIR MASS IS PRETTY DRY. WE STILL HAVE
MELTING AND EVAPORATION OF SNOW. LOWER VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 50S TUESDAY. THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
AT SUN VALLEY WHERE RECENT SNOW FALL SHOULD SLOW THE WARM UP.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE COMES IN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOSTLY ORIENTED WEST-EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EMBEDDED IN CONFLUENT FLOW AND
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK. MODELS SHOW LITTLE WIND WITH THE FRONT.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF MOUNTAIN
SNOW. RS

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
EUROPEAN AND GFS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY
SYSTEM DROPPING IT SOUTH FROM CANADA WITH BOTH NOW HAVING CLOSED 500
MILLIBAR LOW OVER REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE
PRECIPITATION TO EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AND UPPED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND MADE IT ALL SNOW BEHIND COLD FRONT.
CONTINUED WITH FRIDAY AS COLDEST DAY IN EXTENDED BEHIND THE FRONT
AND STARTED DRYING IT OUT DURING DAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WITH ANOTHER TROF MOVING THROUGH MONDAY.
UPPED PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DRY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




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