FXUS65 KPIH 060840
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
240 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE TO SLIDE OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO TODAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ON
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM TO STAY MAINLY NORTH. PUT IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THE SYSTEM TUESDAY WILL USHER IN SOME
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
GK

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THURSDAY. BOTH GFS AND EC
DROP A CANADIAN WAVE SOUTH USHERING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BY
THURSDAY. ENDED UP DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. THE GFS HOWEVER IS OPEN
WITH THE UPPER TROF DRIVING IT EAST QUICKLY WITH VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION WHEREAS THE EC IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE WAVE
CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN NEVADA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND HAVING IT
OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO BY SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT THE EC IS EXTREMELY
WET WITH THIS SCENARIO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH COLD ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES FOR DECENT SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT WILL PLAY IT
CONSERVATIVELY AND GO MORE WITH THE OPEN WAVE GFS SOLUTION WITH
MAINLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY DRY WITH MAINLY MOUNTAIN
PRECIPITATION. MODELS TOUGH TO GAGE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING UP TODAY WILL RESULT IN
DECREASING CLOUD COVER. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO TUE.
HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY...RESULTING IN A LITTLE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY READINGS WILL DROP ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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