FXUS65 KPIH 051042
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
342 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AROUND UPPER LOW IN UTAH
BUT LITTLE ELSE GOING ON TODAY. HAVE SOME CLOUDS IN GRIDS AND
ADDED SOME PATCH FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AS TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON NAM. UPPER LOW SLIDES
EAST AND RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT THREE DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.
GK

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SPLIT FLOW BEGINS THE PERIOD
WITH DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST US AND WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS IDAHO. ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
LEFT WEAK POPS ACROSS THE REGION BUT STILL WELL BELOW CLIMO. RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND THIS TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL
AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ECMWF COMPLETELY
FLATTENS RIDGE BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. GFS ALSO
BRINGS THE TROUGH IN...BUT SLOWER AND A REPEAT OF THE SPLIT PATTERN
WHICH WOULD LEAVE EASTERN IDAHO LARGELY DRY. HAVE INTRODUCED WEAK
POPS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT REMAINING BELOW CLIMO FOR NOW. DMH
&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT STRATUS FORMATION CONTINUES TO BE THE QUESTION
FOR EASTERN IDAHO. VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SOME STRATUS MAY BE FORMING IN THE UPPER
SNAKE VALLEY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE REMAINS STRONG IN DEVELOPING
STRATUS FOR THE FOLLOWING NIGHTS BUT CURRENTLY CLEAR. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON OBS/SAT IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. IF
STRATUS DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP BEFORE NEXT TERMINAL ISSUANCE WILL
LIKELY MADE A NOD FOR IT IN THE NEXT NIGHT PERIOD. OTHERWISE WILL
CONTINUE WITH VFR. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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