FXUS66 KPQR 050419 AFDPQR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 820 PM PST SAT FEB 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED OVERHEAD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND WILL MAINTAIN THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG SUNDAY AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. A SYSTEM OFF THE COAST LATE SAT WILL LIFT NORTH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR MORE DRY WEATHER. A SPLITTING SYSTEM MAY BRING A SMALL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. && .SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING KEEPING FLOW OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTS N OFF THE COAST. AS WITH PREVIOUS OFFSHORE SYSTEMS...EXPECT LITTLE EFFECT ON THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDS BRUSHING THE AREA. GRADIENTS THROUGH THE GORGE STILL ON THE ORDER OF 7 MB...MAY DROP A MB OR TWO OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH JUST SLIGHTLY REDUCED WIND SPEEDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE S WILLAMETTE VALLEY...STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME MORNING FOG. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR RATHER COLD MORNINGS IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS AND A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOONS. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED... THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAIN EFFECT IS AN INCREASE IN THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW...SO LOOK FOR MORE EASTERLY BREEZES AND A MINIMUM OF FOG. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE SPLITTING AS IT REACHES OUR AREA TUESDAY SO WE WILL SEE IF WE GET MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION FROM IT. .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MODELS BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN BRING A TROUGH TO THE COAST TUE EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH SPLITS AND A CUTOFF LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO CALIF. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE...MOST DYNAMICS HEAD INTO N CALIF ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS LIKELY TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDING TO SOME EXTENT WED...THOUGH HOW LONG IT REMAINS OVER THE AREA IS UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE BY LATER FRIDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES LEAN TOWARD A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST DURING THE WEEKEND THOUGH IT SUPPORTS A SPLITTING PATTERN WHICH COULD INDICATE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA. KELSON && .AVIATION...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. MAY HAVE PATCHY FOG BETWEEN KCVO AND K61S...BUT NOT MUCH THREAT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KT IN AND NEAR W COLUMBIA GORGE. ROCKEY. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH DRY LIGHT EAST WINDS THRU SUNDAY. && .MARINE...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE FEW GUSTS FROM TIME TO TIME IN AND NEAR GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN. STORM ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEST SWELL 10 TO 12 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDES BELOW 10 FT LATER SUN NIGHT. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PST SUNDAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 AM PST SUNDAY. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.