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FXUS65 KPSR 232100
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
200 PM MST Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected across the area through next week with
near normal temperatures and dry conditions in the forecast.
Breezy conditions are likely Friday and Saturday as a low pressure
system moves into northern Arizona. This system will hang around
through the weekend keeping high temperatures in the 90s. Warmer
temperatures are likely for the first part of next week with highs
just over 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The early afternoon water vapor imagery still shows a broad upper
level low trough circulating over the Great Basin. This system
will continue to lift further north away from our area through the
day. Another trough of interest that will eventually impact
the region can also be seen in satellite imagery developing off
the California coast. Meanwhile, dry southwesterly flow aloft
will allow nearly cloudless skies across Arizona and southeast
California to continue. So far today, temperatures are already
pushing 90 degrees across the desert with expected highs in the
mid-90's.

There are no significant to the intermediate forecast. Some
ridging will take hold over the area over the next few days with
H5 heights rising to 584-587 dm over South-Central Arizona while
staying lower further west due to the approaching trough. This
will allow temperatures across the Phoenix area to climb towards
100 degrees while staying in the mid-90's for El Centro and Yuma.
As that trough makes way inland Friday, strong winds will spread
across the forecast area with the strongest gusts in southeast
California. Gusts of 35-40 mph are likely, especially in the
Mountain Springs area of southwestern Imperial County. The windy
conditions may also be capable of producing areas of blowing dust
or sand. The stronger winds will continue and become more
widespread through Saturday evening lending to elevated fire
weather concerns.

The models are in fairly good agreement keeping the trough over
our region through the weekend. The associated height falls and
cooler air will do well to ameliorate the warmer temperatures
bringing daytime highs a few degrees below seasonal normal values.
Unfortunately, this reprieve will be short lived as ridging is
likely to reform over the Southwest early next week with
temperatures again surpassing 100 degrees for the hottest areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation concerns through Thursday afternoon under clear skies.
Outside of some periods of variable direction, trends in wind speeds
and direction will be near persistence and very typical for mid/late
May.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday:
Dry conditions will prevail across the region as another dry
weather system moves through. Windy conditions will begin Friday
afternoon but become more widespread by Saturday with gusts as
strong as 25-35 mph. Daytime relative humidity values will still
be low with most places in the 5-10% range. Nighttime RH
recoveries will rise into the 20-30% range. Daily high temps will
climb back into the low 100's for the hottest locations by Monday
and remaining there through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Deemer
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer
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