FXUS65 KPUB 171726

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 AM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Primary near-short term meteorological concerns include pops, qpf,
thunderstorm intensity and localized areas of morning low clouds.
Forecast district currently graced by dry conditions in combination
with near to above seasonal early morning mid-July temperatures. In
addition, low clouds were developing at Monument Hill per latest
satellite/surface observations.

Recent real-time data, PV/PW analysis, computer simulations and
forecast model soundings indicate that adequate atmospheric
moisture(as noted by by precipitable water values generally running
in the 100% to 125% of average ranges) interacting with surface
outflow(associated with a storm complex located over southwestern
Nebraska early this morning) and the diurnal orographic cycle will
allow isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity from
this afternoon into tonight.

Some of the stronger storms will be capable of generating locally
heavy rainfall/localized flooding issues, especially over the
recent/fresh burn scars. In addition, the potential also exists
that some strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible
over far northern and eastern portions of the forecast district from
later today into tonight, which matches nicely with latest SPC's Day
1 convective outlook. As always...WFO Pueblo will continue to
monitor closely and issue hydro/convective products as warranted.

Finally...near to above seasonal mid-July maximum and minimum
temperatures are expected over the majority of the CWA during
the next 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 412 AM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.Wednesday and Thursday...Upper ridge retrogrades to the west with
drier northwest flow aloft developing over the region. With drier
and warmer air aloft, anticipate a warming trend with
temperatures of 100 or higher over portions of the lower Arkansas
River valley. There will still be a modest amount of middle level
monsoon moisture with isolated to scattered diurnal thunderstorms
confined mostly to over and near the mountains. With limited
moisture, any storms will be high based with generally light
rainfall and gusty winds.

.Friday...More active weather could return to the region. As a
shortwave moves into the midwest, high pressure will build into
the northern high plains with a cold front passage. Behind the
front, there is the potential for more moist low level air to
advect westward into the area. At the same time, the upper ridge
will progress eastward into Colorado, bringing more mid level
moisture into the region. Models vary on the amount of moisture
with the GFS being wetter than the NAM. With light winds aloft,
will have to watch for locally heavy downpours developing over the
burn scars. Followed the SuperBlend for PoPs and QPF with have
the higher PoPs over the mountains during the day and progressing
eastward during the evening. Latest model soundings indicate
atmosphere will remained capped near the Kansas border with lower
chances for convection.

.Saturday through Monday...Upper high gradually drifts southward.
Monsoon moisture wraps around the upper high bringing more
moisture into the area. Precipitable waters increase over the
weekend, increasing the chances for diurnal convection over the
mountains. Looks as if the best chances for storms will remain
over and near the mountains with weak flow aloft. On Monday,
models hint at a cold front bringing a push of deeper moisture
from the east into the region which would increase Pops and QPF.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon at all three
terminal locations. Brief periods of reduced CIGS and VIS are
possible as they pass near or over the terminals. Erratic winds
are also possible with thunderstorm passage. Expect clearing
conditions by this evening as thunderstorms dissipate and move off
to the east. If KALS should receive rainfall, fog may be possible
later tonight into Wednesday morning. Mozley




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