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FXUS65 KPUB 161044
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
444 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 408 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

MCS shifting well east of the area early this morning, with
convection moving out of sern CO as of 10z, leaving only the back
edge of the high level cloud shield over CO. For today, expecting a
somewhat of a downturn in convective coverage/strength as upward
vertical motion will be lacking behind departing short wave, while
instability will take most of the day to develop given rather
cool/stable air mass initially over the region. Moisture will remain
plentiful, and by late afternoon most higher terrain will see at
least scattered convection develop, with perhaps some weakly
organized storms moving across the I-25 corridor early in the
evening as diffuse upper wave slides across nrn CO. Plains may miss
out on most storms, as instability diminishes ahead of weakening
convection coming off the higher terrain in the evening. Still
appears better forcing for stronger storms will be in nern CO, while
weak shear/instability keeps storms across srn CO below severe
limits. Most activity then fades away after midnight, leaving only
some high level convective debris cloudiness over the plains by
early Mon morning. Given above scenario, previous forecast and NBM
pops looked way too high today and tonight, and cut back most of the
region toward more reasonable looking MAV/MET guidance. Max temps
today will see little change from Sat over the mountains, while
plains cool slightly in the wake of overnight convection.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 408 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Monday...

During the day Monday, a weak disturbance in southwest flow will
lift out of New Mexico into Colorado. With abundant deep moisture
still in place over Colorado (TPW > 1" over E Plains), the
disturbance will aid the development of widespread showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains during the afternoon, spreading
east to the I-25 corridor and eastern plains during the afternoon
and evening. Given abundant PW, there is the potential for storms
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding, particularly over burn
scars. However, steering flow, although not strong, should keep
storms moving quick enough to help limit the flash flood threat
elsewhere. Steep low-mid level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values
of around 1500 j/kg during the afternoon and early evening across
most of the southeast Colorado plains, including the I-25 corridor.
Generally meager mid level flow will only allow for EBSHEAR values
of around 30 knots. Given these conditions, strong to severe storms
will be possible, but lower shear values should keep the severe
threat isolated. Hail to around 1" in diameter and wind gusts to 60
mph will be the primary severe threats. Temperatures will remain
slightly below normal, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across
the plains, and low to mid 70s in Colorado Springs and the high
valleys.

Tuesday...

During the day Tuesday, a disturbance will accelerate southeast out
of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies ahead of
increasing northwest flow aloft. This wave in the presence of still
abundant moisture will help to kick off another round of abundant
showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and eastern plains
during the afternoon into the evening. There appears to be a similar
flash flood threat over burn scars, with storms moving quick enough
to help limit the threat. Lapse rates and resulting instability
values do not look to be as impressive as those on Monday, with
greatest instability over Baca/E Las Animas Counties. Shear remains
on the weak end as well. Given this, strong storms are possible over
much of the plains, with isolated severe storms over the far
southern plains. Temperatures will remain similar to those on Monday.

Wednesday - Friday...

Northwest flow aloft behind the Tuesday wave will drop TPW values
across the region significantly. The drier atmosphere and lack of
significant disturbances will lead to a relatively dry period
across southern Colorado, with only isolated shower and thunderstorm
chances each day. The main story during this period will be warming
temperatures, with highs expected to rise into the low to mid 90s
across the plains on Thursday and Friday. The high valleys and
Colorado Springs will see temperatures rise into the upper 70s to
low 80s those days. A shortwave trough expected to pass north of
Colorado is likely to send a cold front down the eastern Colorado
plains Friday evening, dropping temps at least slightly for the
weekend.

Saturday...

Deterministic and ensemble model solutions begin to diverge
significantly during this period, with hints that another trough
digging into the Great Basin brings better precipitation chances to
Colorado for the weekend. Model uncertainty leads to low confidence
in the forecast from this point on, however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 408 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

VFR all taf sites today and tonight. Will include a vcts mention for
KALS from mid-afternoon into early evening, as storms move off the
mountains and across the San Luis Valley. At KCOS and KPUB,
convection takes most of the day to develop, with greatest risk of
tsra holding off until the 00z-06z time frame. Limited instability
suggests storms today will be fairly weak, with gusty/erratic winds
and brief heavy rainfall the main threats.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for COZ065>068-070-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...LINE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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