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FXUS65 KPUB 181051
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
351 AM MST Fri Jan 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM MST Fri Jan 18 2019

...Heavy wind driven snow continues across the Continental Divide
and spine of the Sangres today...with gusty winds and rain/snow
showers across the southeast plains this afternoon and evening...


Upper trof across eastern UT/western CO will carve out as it drops
southeastward into western KS and the TX/OK panhandles by tonight.
Area radars are impressive across western CO and have even seen some
convective elements with lightning at times across western CO. Best
forcing will remain in place across western portions of southern CO
this morning with successive HRRR runs indicating a band of snow
spreading across the San Luis Valley into the western slopes of the
Sangres through early morning. Meanwhile winds seemed to have
peaked along the lee of the southeast mountains shortly before
midnight...and have since come down with local gusts in the 40-50
mph range. Increasing winds aloft should result in trapped mountain
waves with strongest winds confined to the higher peaks and in the
gap flow areas of the southeast mountains/adjacent I-25 corridor.
Could still see localized gusts in the 40-50 mph range continue
through the morning.

Upper trof axis will move through eastern CO late this morning
through early afternoon. Cold front will drop south of the Palmer
Divide shortly after 8 AM, and advance southward to along the NM
border by noon if not a little sooner. Gusts up to 40 to 50 mph will
be possible behind the front through this afternoon. Max
temperatures will top out early with westerly winds ahead of the
front, then temperatures will be steady then fall through the
afternoon with cold air advection behind the front. High res models
are still hitting snow along the Palmer and Raton Mesa regions late
this afternoon and evening...though amounts and impacts will be
limited due to initial warm temperatures. Could see an inch or two
with the heaviest falling along the northern slopes of the Raton
Mesa region this evening. There will be quite a bit of instability
this afternoon as cold air aloft comes in with the system so some
locally intense showers will be possible...with the potential for
snow levels to diabatically cool and drop to 5500 feet along the
southern I-25 corridor. There could be some locally heavy bursts of
snow which could produce some slushy roads at times. However the
initial warm ground and brevity of the system should help mitigate
impacts as activity winds down quickly by early evening. Given these
factors, don't think any highlights will be necessary for the
southern I-25 corridor.

System moves east of the area this evening with clearing conditions
from northwest to southeast. Current highlights still look on track
and suspect they may even be able to be dropped a little sooner as
snowfall rates decrease into the early evening. Still looking for
snowfall totals in the 6-12 inch range along the Continental Divide,
with generally 4 to 8 inches for the crest of the Sangres. -KT


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM MST Fri Jan 18 2019

...Next storm rolls in Monday...

After a relatively nice weekend...the next weather system will
affect the region Monday into early Tuesday morning. As it stands
now...this system looks a bit stronger and colder than the weather
system that is affecting the region today. Snow will move into the
high terrain during the day Monday, and move onto the plains Monday
night into early Tuesday morning, and then exit the state Tuesday
afternoon. A couple of weak disturbances will then affect the region
during the remainder of the week, especially Wed afternoon and over
the weekend. At this time, it appears the worst of the cold air that
will move into the CONUS next week will be well east of the state of
Colorado.

This Weekend...

Both days will be dry and mild, although max temps on the plains
will be five to ten degrees warmer on Sunday than Saturday. Expect
temps of 45 to 50 on Saturday and 50s on Sunday, Valleys and mtns
will be much cooler with 20s and 30s Saturday and mainly 30s on
Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday...

Next trough moves onshore California Sunday evening and will move
over the State Monday afternoon/evening. This system is a bit
colder than the system affecting the region today (Friday), and
will have the potential to bring heavier snow to the mtns. Winter
wx hilites will likely be needed due to the snow and wind. This
system will also have a better chance of bringing some precip to
the lower elevations Monday night into early Tuesday, although
the Spanish Peaks Country area will likely bear the brunt of the
precip with this system as stout NNE winds will likely occur with
this Monday evening. Farther east onto the plains, it does not
look like significant precip will occur over the far eastern
plains as the system is not forecast to wrap up significantly.

Monday will likely start out warm on the plains as breezy west winds
will likely be occuring Monday morning along the mtns/plains
interface. Sounding show the potential for a mountain wave to set
up so there is a threat of some strong downslope winds early
Monday morning. By mid afternoon, a strong cold front will move
across the plains and expect windy to very windy north winds to be
occurring by late afternoon across the plains.

Wednesday into next weekend...

Strong NW flow will be over the region during most of this period. a
pronounced disturbance will race down in the nw flow aloft during
mid week and this will likely bring wind driven snow to the mtns,
especially the central mtns. Max temps during this time frame
will mostly be in the 40s over the plains with 20s and 30s
mtns/valleys. Another disturbance will move across the region
during next weekend. \/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 325 AM MST Fri Jan 18 2019

KALS will see a round of snow early this morning with the potential
for brief MVFR cigs/vis as snow showers move through prior to 15z.
Conditions will return to VFR with gusty northwest winds 15 to 30
kts expected this afternoon. VFR cigs will clear out this evening
with decreasing winds. There could be some radiation fog develop
early Saturday morning though winds aloft stay brisk so think the
chances for this is low.

KCOS and KPUB will see VFR conditions with a cold front dropping
into KCOS by 15z and into KPUB by 16z. North winds will gust up to
around 40 kts at times this afternoon. Both terminals will see VCSH
this afternoon with VFR cigs...though north winds off the Palmer is
expected to decrease potential for precipitation at both terminals.
There could be some local MVFR cigs with VCSH. Winds will slowly
decrease this evening with VFR conditions and clearing skies
expected overnight. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for
COZ058>061-064-066-068-073-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
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