FXUS65 KPUB 242050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
250 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

Tstms popped up in El Paso county around midday and have been moving
east. It looks like the best chances for tstms this evening will
probably be over Kiowa county, but the NAM and HRRR also show
activity in Baca county, with a slight chance that something will
also pop up in Prowers county. There could be one or two storms
that reach severe limits. After midnight conditions should be dry.

Friday, an upper level ridge will be over the state and both the NAM
and the GFS show dry conditions across southeast and south central
CO, along with above average temps. Highs acrs the southeast plains
will mostly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with 80s in the Upper
Arkansas and San Luis Valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

Friday night through Sunday...Upper closed low over northern CA Fri
night will slide into the Great Basin for Sat and Sun, producing
strong deep southwest flow across the Four Corners. This will serve
to continue warm and dry conditions across the state, and coupled
with increasing winds, fire danger will be the main concern for both
Sat and Sun. Decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for much of the
area for Sat, with the eastern plains left out due to fuels info
indicating green up. Look for high temps in the upper 70s to lower
80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to upper 90s for the plains.

Monday through Wednesday...The upper low weakens Mon and begins to
eject to the east-northeast across the Rockies through Wed. Exact
timing is still questionable and Mon may end up being another
potential fire weather day, but at some time during Mon a weak cold
front pushes south across the Palmer Divide, cooling temps slightly
and raising humidity levels. Winds should ease as well, with
isolated diurnal showers and storms each day for the higher terrain
and far eastern plains. Temps will warm into the 70s for the high
valleys, and 80s to around 90F for the plains.

Thursday...Another upper trough develops over the West Coast late
Wed, producing brisk w-sw flow across the Four Corners and western
Colorado once again. Temps will again warm to near 80F for the high
valleys, and 80s to lower 90s for the plains. Depending on how much
pcpn is received through mid-week, the forecast area might be right
back into enhanced fire danger. Stay tuned. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB and KALS,
with an upper level ridge over the area. Winds should mostly be 12
kts or less.


Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for COZ220>230.



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