FXUS65 KPUB 141535
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
935 AM MDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.UPDATE...
UPGRADED FORECAST ZONES 67 AND 68...THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...FROM AN ADVISORY TO A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
8 SNOWFALL REPORT FROM WOLF CREEK PASS SKI AREA ALREADY THIS
MORNING. WITH MUCH MORE TO COME...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY FROM AN ADVISORY TO A WARNING.

.LONG TERM...
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM MDT SUN MAR 14 2010/

SHORT TERM...

..WINTER WEATHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...

CURRENTLY...WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM IS
SPINNING OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST INTO NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE RAIN AND SNOW OVER WESTERN
COLORADO. AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT OVER THE SAN JUANS AND LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SNOW STARTING TO SPREAD INTO OUR CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE NAM/SREF/WRF/GEM FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
WITH REGARDS TO STORM EVOLUTION AND PRECIPITATION. ALL MODELS
GENERATING DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW BY MID AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TO 700 MB
FLOW EASTERLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS WELL WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR HALF AN INCH. DO THINK MODELS
MAY BE OVER DOING DEW PT TEMPS...CURRENT READINGS ARE RUNNING ABOUT
2-4F LOWER THAN MODEL PROGS AND AIR OVER KS/TX THAT WILL BE ADVECTED
OUR WAY IS ONLY IN THE 30-33F RANGE...BELOW THE 35F DEW PTS THE
MODELS BRING IN. MODELS STILL GENERATING AROUND 200-400 J/KG OF
CAPE ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND LAPSE RATES HOVERING
AROUND 7C/KM THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
MIDDAY AND PEAK IN INTENSITY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHEN THE DEEPEST UPSLOPE AND LIFT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST MODELS HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL AFTER 06Z
WITH MUCH OF IT REMAINING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

EXPECT TO SEE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
COLD AIR IS SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SO MOST AREAS WILL SEE RAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY MORNING. ONE PROBLEM
AREA WILL BE THE RATON RIDGE AND WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN PRECIPITATION GETS GOING. EXPECT TO SEE RAIN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL
INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING. ELECTED TO GO WITH
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE SAN JUANS...WET
MOUNTAINS...RAMPART RANGE AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH GENERALLY 6 TO 10 INCHES
OF SNOW WITH LOW SNOW RATIOS...8:1 OR LOWER WILL KEEP MOST SNOWFALL
TOTALS LOWER THAN IF THIS SYSTEM WAS COLDER. DO EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE WITH UP TO A FOOT
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING. 88

LONG TERM...

(MONDAY-SATURDAY)

SYSTEM WHICH IS AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. REMNANT CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ALONG THE
BORDER...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY UNTIL THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE DRY AND QUITE
NICE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ALOFT. TEMPS TUE
SHOULD BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE AND WED HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
65-70F RANGE.

CHANGE COMES THU AS A TROUGH DROPS SE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE PAC
NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SHARP FRONT THROUGH BUT...ATTM...LOWER LVL
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF A W COMPONENT SO DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF STEADY PRECIP ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED IF THIS TROUGH COMES IN A BIT SHARPER THAN FCST. BASED
ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THE C MTNS SHOULD SEE THE BEST
SHOT OF PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT. TEMPS THU WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT FRI SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO WARM UP
FOR THE WEEKEND. \/34

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE IMPACTING KCOS AND KPUB EARLY THIS
MORNING GENERATING MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT TO SEE CIGS LIFT BY 15Z
AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT KPUB AFTER 21Z
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW AFTER 07Z WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL SPREAD OVER KCOS BY 20Z WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KALS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 18Z. ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT MOVE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z.
WHILE NOT ANTICIPATED...A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TERMINAL BUT THINK THE PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. 88

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ072-073-079>082.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY
FOR COZ074-075.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ067-068.

&&

$$

50/27


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