FXUS65 KPUB 291009

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
409 AM MDT Fri May 29 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 29 2020

Currently...radar is generally quiet early this morning across
the region. A couple of weak returns are showing up over the San
Luis Valley, and out near the Kansas border. A couple of sprinkles
may be reaching the ground, but will hold off on mentioning any
precipitation chances through sunrise. Winds are light out of the
southeast across the Plains. This has allowed dewpoints to remain
elevated in the mid 40s. Temperatures remain mild with mid 50s to
lower 60s across the Plains.

Today...high pressure will continue to spin over the Four Corners
region into this afternoon. An upper disturbance will round the high
pressure area and drop southeast across Colorado this afternoon and
evening. Expect shower and thunderstorm development by mid day over
the Mountains, with activity spreading south and east into the I-25
corridor by late afternoon. Steering flows aloft are weak out of
the northwest, so thunderstorms that develop will likely drift to
the southeast. Lack of shear and modest CAPE values around 800 j/kg
will keep thunderstorms below severe limits. The main threats this
afternoon will be small hail with diameters less than half an inch,
lightning and locally heavy rainfall. The flash flood risk will
remain elevated this afternoon on area burn scars and we will
continue to monitor them closely. Afternoon temperatures will
remain warm across the region with upper 80s to lower 90s expected
over the Plains.

Tonight...the upper level high pressure center will start to drift
eastward across Colorado overnight tonight. Expected shower and
thunderstorm activity to continue drop south and east over the
Mountains and I-25 corridor this evening. Models in good agreement
with thunderstorm activity waning by midnight, and dry conditions
prevailing into Saturday morin. A weak cold front will drop
into the Palmer Divide region late. Moisture should remain pooled
across the region tonight. Overnight lows will once again be mild
with upper 50s to lower 60s expected across the region. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 29 2020

Upper ridge slides slowly east toward the plains on Saturday,
while frontal boundary drifts south toward the Arkansas River Sat
afternoon, with upslope winds and increased low level
moisture/instability behind it. Weak upper wave will crest the
ridge Sat as well, setting the stage for an upturn in convection
across much of the area in the afternoon/evening. With mid-level
steering currents taking on a more wly component, convection will
likely push farther onto the plains than the past few days by Sat
evening. SWODY2 has marginal severe threat just brushing the nrn
edge of the CWA, as stronger flow aloft and better shear will be
mainly north of the area. Flash flood threat will ramp up as
moisture increases, with model signals pointing to the Pikes Peak
region having the best chance of heavier rainfall.

Upper ridge continues a slow drift eastward Sun/Mon while low
level flow takes on a more sly component by Sun afternoon. Would
expect a slightly downward trend in convective coverage/strength
Sun as BL dries slightly and surface winds become less favorable,
though still sct-nmrs storms over the mountains in the afternoon,
with some activity making it into at least the I-25 corridor by
late day. Slightly less activity Monday as hint of a lee trough
shows up on the plains, though still plenty of mid level moisture
and weak energy around for afternoon/evening storms over the
mountains. Would expect max temps to drift upward both days as low
levels dry slightly. Upper ridge then wanders through the area
into the end of the week, with slower ECMWF nwd ejection of ern
Pacific energy preferred. Still expect generally hot temps and a
continuation of afternoon/evening mountain convection each day,
though perhaps some lessening over precip chances toward the end
of the week as drier swly flow develops.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Fri May 29 2020

VFR conditions at all three terminals into this afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and prevail
into this evening over the San Luis Valley and I-25 corridor. Any
storms that impact the terminals will bring reduced CIGS and VIS.
Thunderstorm activity should dissipate and shift south of the
terminals by 06z/Sat. Mozley




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