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FXUS65 KPUB 182141
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
341 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Currently...While the eastern Plains have remained mostly sunny
today, there has been much more cloud development over the higher
terrain this afternoon as a tap of Gulf moisture has pushed up into
southwestern Colorado. Southerly surface winds have increased and
become gusty at times with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Temps have warmed
into the 50s for most locations, though the far eastern Plains have
reached near 60F while El Paso County has remained in the 40s.

Tonight...The upper disturbance, currently over Wyoming, will
continue to drop south, pushing into Colorado this evening. A cold
front is forecast to cross the Palmer Divide tonight right around 9
pm, swinging surface winds around to a more northerly direction
initially for El Paso County, then the remainder of the Plains
through the overnight hours. Increased cloud cover is anticipated,
as well as a few showers as the front passes. The increased winds
and cloud cover will likely help keep temps from bottoming out
overnight, so plan on minimums in the 20s for the high valleys, and
20s to lower 30s for the Plains.

Tomorrow...The upper shortwave will strengthen as it pushes to the
southeast across South Dakota into Nebraska. Easterly upslope flow
will increase, and shower activity as well as a few thunderstorms
will be possible throughout the day across the higher terrain and I-
25 corridor. Pcpn chances increase in the aftn over the peaks of the
Wets and southern Sangres, as well as the southern foothills
including in the vicinity of Walsenburg and Trinidad. While the
lower elevations will be too warm for any snow to stick, the peaks
of the Wets and Sangres may see an inch or two of new accumulation
through the aftn. As for temps, a cooler and more gray day is
forecast, with highs in the 40s for the high valleys, and 40s to
lower 50s near the Kansas border for the plains. El Paso County is
expected to only warm into the mid 30s to around 40F. Moore


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Latest models are not as aggressive and
are not digging the next embedded wave as far west across the area
as previous runs did yesterday. With that said, still expecting
weak low level upslope across Eastern Colorado tomorrow night, with
scattered showers, and a few possible thunderstorms, over and near
the Southeast Mts late tomorrow afternoon and evening, as an
elongated upper trough digs across the Northern and Central High
Plains. Snow levels remain between 6000 and 7000 feet through the
evening, with snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches possible, under
the heavier showers, especially across the Southern Sangre de Cristo
Range. Short wave upper ridging builds across the Rockies through
the day on Wednesday, ahead of the next Eastern Pacific system
digging across the Southern California Coast. Again, latest models
are trending slower with this system, though can't rule out a few
isolated showers or storms across the Southwest Mountains late
Wednesday afternoon, as moisture slowly increases within increasing
southerly flow aloft. Otherwise, temperatures on Wednesday look to
be at or slightly below seasonal norms.

Wednesday night-Saturday...Latest models agree, though differ on
timing and strength of trailing energy, that the Southern California
system digs across the Desert SW Thursday and then slowly lifts out
across Southwestern Colorado and into Northeastern Colorado Friday
and Saturday. Strong south to southwest flow ahead of the system
looks to bring widespread precipitation to areas along and west of
the ContDVD Thursday and Friday, with winter weather highlights
likely needed through this timeframe, especially across the higher
elevations of Eastern San Juan and La Garita Mts. The movement of
this system looks to bring periods of rain and higher elevation snow
to the rest of the higher terrain and high valleys through the
Southeast Plains Thursday night through Saturday, with the deep
southerly fetch looks to keep snow levels relatively high through
the period.

Saturday night-Monday...Models continue to disagree on the amount
and location of more energy digging across the Rockies and High
Plains Saturday and Sunday, though do agree on upper level ridging
building back across the Rockies for the early to middle part of
next week. With that said, stayed with a blended model solution,
which has slight and chance pops mainly across the higher terrain
Saturday night and Sunday, with warmer and drier weather in the
offing for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019

At KALS, VFR conditions with relatively light winds are expected to
persist throughout much of the 24-hour forecast period. However,
towards the end of the period, after 18 or 19z, ceilings could drop
to near MVFR conditions with possibly some VCSH for a few hours.

At KCOS and KPUB, VFR conditions are expected through much of the
forecast period. Around 03z, wind shifts to the north at both
locations with KCOS seeing some VCSH. VCSH near KPUB is possible
later around 12z. Both locations could approach MVFR conditions late
in the period, around 16 or 17z, due to low ceilings.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...CARLBERG/MOORE
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