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FXUS65 KPUB 271515
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
915 AM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 AM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Added ern Las Animas county to the WSW for Friday night and
Saturday, as temps should be cold enough for heavy snow to extend
eastward along the NM border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Broad upper trof will remain firmly in place today across the
northern and central U.S. Rockies with embedded shortwaves moving
through the flow. One is moving through southern CO this morning
with area radars showing an uptick in snow showers across the
mountains. Second wave across northern UT will move through
northern CO late this morning through this afternoon. This will
serve to keep fairly widespread snow and blowing snow going through
the day across the central mountains...with the heaviest falling
this morning. Current advisories for the central mountains still
look on track with 4 to 8 inches of storm total snow expected across
the higher Sawatch and Mosquito ranges through this afternoon.
Lesser amounts of 1 to 4 inches will be possible across the
remainder of the mountains through today. With cold air aloft
today...model soundings show a fair amount of instability this
afternoon with thunderstorms possible just about anywhere. Best
chance will be across the southeast plains this afternoon
along/behind a cold front which drops southward behind the
shortwave. SPC has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across
the far southeast counties. Damaging wind threat would be the main
concern given inverted V soundings and likelihood of mixing down
strong winds aloft. Some small hail up to 1/2 inch in diameter would
also be possible given cold pool aloft.

Although thunderstorms will be more isolated across southern
portions of the area...gusty west winds will be the main concern.
Could see some gusts in the 30-40 mph range this afternoon as the
surface low deepens and drops southeastward. Fortunately fuels are
too moist and humidities are not low enough to be concerned with
critical fire weather issues.

Showers will gradually end during the evening with a brief reprieve
in precipitation for southern CO. Scattered snow showers will
continue across the central mountains and even increase a bit in
coverage towards Friday morning as energy starts to dig southward
into UT. There are some concerns of a patchy freeze across portions
of the I-25 corridor tonight...mainly Palmer Divide. However given
they have been experiencing freezing temperatures pretty regularly
across this area will refrain from issuing any frost/freeze advisory.
Otherwise westerly winds may keep temperatures just above freezing
elsewhere. Pueblo area may see a brief hit to freezing early
Thursday morning if west winds decouple...but it looks too spotty
for now to warrant a highlight. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Primary longer term meteorological focus is the amount of impact
that a vigorous storm system will provide to the forecast district
from later Friday into the weekend.

Longer term meteorological concerns include but are not limited to
locally heavy precipitation(including locally heavy snow),
especially from later Friday into the weekend as well as winds
and temperatures.

Recent Forecast model soundings, PV analysis and longer term
computer simulations indicate that dynamic(and cold for this time of
year) closed upper low located over west-central Colorado at 18Z
Friday shifts into the 4-corners region by 06Z Saturday and then
moves into east-central New Mexico by 21Z Saturday before entering
south-central Kansas during Sunday morning.

Meteorological parameters are coming together to warrant a Winter
Storm Watch over many higher terrain locations from Friday evening
into Saturday night for locally heavy snow and gusty winds. As this
potentially high impact storm system develops/draws nearer to the
forecast district, revisions/expansion of the winter weather
highlights are anticipated, please stay tuned.

In addition to the expected snow and wind, anticipate that below to
well below seasonal temperatures will be experienced during the
longer term, especially from Saturday into Saturday night, where
maximum temperatures on Saturday are projected to remain in the
30s(which is some 30F to 35F below late April climatological averages
over eastern sections).

Then a return to lower grade pops in combination with moderating
temperatures are anticipated from later Sunday into Wednesday as
northwesterly to northerly upper flow with embedded disturbances at
times impact the forecast district during this time-frame.

Finally, the highest potential for stronger winds should be
experienced from later Friday into Sunday night, primarily favoring
eastern portions of the forecast district.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Rain and snow showers will move across the area today producing
periodic mountain obscurations in IFR/LIFR conditions with -SN/BLSN
across the central mountains. Elsewhere showers will be more
scattered in nature. TAF sites will see VFR cigs with brief MVFR
cigs possible with -SHRA. -TSRA will be possible in the afternoon
as well...with best chances at KALS and KCOS. Winds will increase
from the west at KCOS and KPUB with gusts to around 30 kts by
afternoon. Locally stronger gusts to 40 kts will be possible near
-SHRA/-TSRA in the afternoon. Cold front will drop southward across
the plains this afternoon shifting winds out of the north at both
KCOS and KPUB after 20-21Z with gusts to 25-35 kts possible.
Winds will decrease at all three terminals by 02z with clearing
skies as showers move eastward into KS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday
night for COZ058>061-063-066-068-072>076-078>082-084-087-088-094.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ058-
060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
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