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FXUS65 KPUB 172230
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
330 PM MST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM MST Sat Nov 17 2018

Will keep discussion brief due to relatively active conditions,
especially over eastern locations today, with a mix of freezing
drizzle, light snow, fog and much colder temperatures
impacting/including but not limited to locations such as El Paso
county.

Recent real-time data, computer simulations and forecast model
soundings indicate that freezing drizzle, light snow and fog will
continue into tonight, before ending/dissipating after midnight
and have added southern El Paso and Pueblo counties into the
existing Winter Weather Advisory that is in effect until 11 PM
MST this evening.

At this time, it appears that the freezing drizzle will
decrease/end from north to south this evening, with locations such
as Huerfano and Las Animas counties noting freezing drizzle the
longest, but ending around midnight.

Primary meteorological concerns in the Winter Weather Advisory
will be areas of light freezing drizzle/rain into this evening in
combination with light accumulating snow and fog. Have depicted
snow amounts from this afternoon into tonight up to 2 inches over
El Paso county and generally 1 inch or less over Pueblo county. In
addition, project that portions of Teller county as well as
sections of the Central Mountains will be graced by 1 to 3 inches
of snow during this time-frame.

As mentioned, improving conditions(in the form of warming
temperatures and drier conditions) should develop from later
tonight into Sunday over the majority of southern Colorado as
upper trough axis moves south and east of the region by later
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM MST Sat Nov 17 2018

Temperatures warm nicely over the first part of the week as ridge
sets up over the central Rockies. High temperatures on Monday will
be in the 50s on the plains. By Wednesday highs will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s on the plains with 30s and lower 40s in the
mountains. No precipitation is expected during the first part of the
week.

ECMWF and GFS is good agreement bringing a fast moving shortwave
trof through the southern Rockies and southern plains late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. The energy associated with this feature
remains well to the south, so may only see a few snow showers in the
southern portions of the San Juans and the Sangre de Cristo
mountains Tuesday night while the remainder of the area remains dry
and warm.

The pattern begins to change Thursday as a trof moves across the
west coast of the U.S. The gradient tightens over Colorado and gusty
winds are possible Thanksgiving Day, but conditions will remain dry
and mild. The trof moves quickly across the state Thursday night,
bringing a chance of snow to the high country. The speed of the
system should limit snow amounts however.

Flat westerly flow aloft Friday will bring snow chances to the
central mountains. By Saturday, significant model differences crop
up. The ECMWF is bullish with a closed upper low developing over
Colorado Saturday night, while the GFS is much slower with this next
stronger system developing over Colorado on Monday. Not a lot of
confidence yet on the timing of this stronger system, but could
impact travelers the weekend after the Thanksgiving holiday. Will
have to wait for later models runs to get a better handle on this
system.

Stark

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 330 PM MST Sat Nov 17 2018

KCOS and KPUB will continue to experience LIFR to IFR conditions
into tonight due to areas of fog, light snow and freezing drizzle
today with conditions improving later tonight, primarily afternoon
midnight.

Overall, KALS should note VFR conditions into Sunday.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
COZ084>086.

&&

$$
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