FXUS65 KPUB 050516
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1016 PM MST SAT FEB 4 2012

.AVIATION...

FOG WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
KCOS REGION WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR 3 KFT. EXPECT MOISTURE FROM
SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 15Z IN THE
MORNING. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

FOG LESS CERTAIN AT KALS AND KPUB. MODELS AND BUFKIT INDICATE KALS
WILL REMAIN FOG FREE...BUT WITH SNOW COVER NEARBY IT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AND HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FOG DEVELOPING NORTH OF KPUB
AND WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES AROUND SUNRISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. MOZLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM MST SAT FEB 4 2012/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

CURRENTLY...VIS SAT PIX SHOW CLEARLY THE SOLID SNOW PACK UP IN EL
PASO COUNTY AND PTS N AND NE. TEMPS OVER THE SNOWPACK ARE A GOOD
10F COOLER THAN OVER AREAS WHICH DID NOT RECEIVE ANY SNOW. ON THE
LARGE SCALE...LARGE BROAD TROUGH NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ONE
MAIN VORT CENTER WAS OVER NORTHEAST KS WHILE ANOTHER WAS NOTED OVER
UTAH.

TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG. GIVEN THE MOISTURE THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH
THE MELTING SNOW...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT INTO THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS...WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW OUR CURRENT (2 PM)
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES. THIS...ALONG WITH CALM WINDS IN THE LOWER
1/2 OF THE ATMOS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS IN AND AROUND FRESH SNOWFALL. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE TAF SITES
KCOS...KPUB AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT...KALS.

SUNDAY...

LOW OVER UTAH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME. A
JET STREAK DEVELOPING ON THE S SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE IMPINGING
OVER SW CO BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THIS JET
ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT
OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CONTDVD REGION.

ELSEWHERE...WX TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...ALBEIT THE
TEMPS OVER FAR E CO WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
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LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT CLOSED UPPER
LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN UTAH AT 00Z MONDAY SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN COLORADO BY 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE
SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY DOWN EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER
MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOW...TYPICALLY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL...WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

PROJECTED SNOW AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ANTICIPATED OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS(ESPECIALLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE 1 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME). LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT AREAS SUCH AS POINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 AS WELL AS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
SHOULD EXPERIENCE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THEN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND BASICALLY
DRY CONDITIONS TO BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...

THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE MELTING SNOW AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE FCST CALM WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOS...FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS DECREASING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
FALL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW CURRENT (2 PM) DEW POINT READINGS. PLAN
TO KEEP CURRENT THINKING IN TAF PRODUCTS THAT WE WILL SEE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG IN ALL 3 TAF SITES. I CANT RULE OUT SOME OF THE FOG MAY
BE DENSE BUT WILL NOT GO TOO PESSIMISTIC IN THE TAF PRODUCTS. WILL
MENTION TO INCOMING FCST SHIFT PERSONNEL AND LET THEM ADJUST
AVIATION PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

88/88


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