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FXUS65 KPUB 192055
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
255 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Area of isolated convection developing at mid-afternoon over the far
southeast plains, where weak convergence along a rather diffuse
surface trough was providing some modest lift near the wrn edge of
the moist/unstable air mass near the KS border. Expect these storms
to move into KS by late afternoon as trough drifts east, with HRRR
suggesting all activity will be out of CO by 00z. Suppose there
could be some briefly strong/gusty winds with storms given rather
wide t/td spread, with perhaps a more organized outflow pushing
westward across the plains this evening. Elsewhere across the
region, dry and hot conditions persist, with record high already set
at Pueblo (102f so far), while readings still a have couple more
degf to go to break the the record (94f) at Colorado Springs.
Overnight into Tue, upper level high pressure center remains just to
our south, with weak sly flow bringing a modest influx of mid level
moisture into the region by Tue afternoon. At the surface, pre-
frontal trough turns winds on the plains ely through the day, while
main cold front hangs back in nern CO until sometime Tue evening.
Overall, most of the mountains should see a modest upturn in
convection by Tue afternoon, though with dry low levels precip will
be spotty and light. Activity on the the plains should stay fairly
sparse, with perhaps a few cells along the NM border and up near the
Palmer Divide. Max temps will continue on the unseasonably warm side
Tue afternoon, with readings within a degf or two of Monday's hot
numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019

A boundary bringing in somewhat cooler air will arrive at the
beginning of this long term period and bring relatively cooler air
to the region (and a chance of storm) Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will warm up again and it will dry out from late in the
week into Sunday. Cooler weather will likely return for the new
workweek.

An initial boundary will likely be on the Palmer Divide early
Tuesday evening. This may spark a thunderstorm or two along the
divide, otherwise it will remain dry over the region.

Wednesday morning, a 2ndry surge of cooler air will backdoor into
the region from the east and this will cool the plains down 10
degrees or so compared to Tuesdays max temps. With increasing
upslope and a more unstable environment in place, the chance of
showers and storms along the plains/mtns interface will increase,
with a good chance of storms possible during the afternoon and
evening time period. Given sufficient CAPE and marginal shear in
place, a few marginally severe storms will be possible, and SPC has
all of the plains in a marginal risk for severe storms for this day.
Burn scar flooding may also be an issue on this day.

For Thursday, upslope will continue although flow will be a bit more
southerly and flow aloft will be a bit weaker (although still
northwesterly). This should decrease the showers and storms over the
plains this day, with the best chance over the mtns/plains interface
and over the far se plains. Max temps should be a degree or two
cooler than Wednesdays max temps.

For Friday into the weekend, it will dry out area-wide with only
isolated pops expected, and temps will return into the mid 90s/L100s
across the plains. By late in the weekend into early next week
another cool front should move into the region/ although long term
guidance is not in good agreement when this front will move into the
region.

Looking a bit farther out, there is some agreement that a stronger
cold front will move down the plains, and this could knock temps
several degrees below normal by mid week next week. \/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hrs at all taf sites with usual
overnight diurnal wind cycle. On Tue, slight increase in convection
expected across the region, though with moisture still rather
shallow, expect most activity to be weak, high based and tied mainly
to the higher terrain.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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