FXUS65 KPUB 061036
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
436 AM MDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...COOL START WITH MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS...OTHERWISE
SUNNY AND WARMER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY AFTERNOON...

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SHUFFLING AROUND EASTERN COLORADO
THIS MORNING. COLORADO SPRINGS AND PUEBLO HAVE BEEN IN AND OUT
OF THE CLOUDS. LOW CLOUD IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE PLAINS EAST OF
LA JUNTA...MOST OF NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND PARTS OF FREMONT AND
CUSTER COUNTY STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS AT THIS TIME...WHEREAS THE REST
OF SOUTHERN COLORADO APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. MADE LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. THE
REST OF DAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN ALL AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO
SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH GENERALLY 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY 50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AIRMASS LOOKS PRETTY STABLE WITH JUST ABOUT NIL CHANCE OF PRECIP
TODAY..SO REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST GRIDS.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK LITTLE RIPPLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
CLIPPING EASTERN COLORADO. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...THE
MODELS ONCE AGAIN REINFORCE THE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY
FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN THE PRECIP PROSPECTS FOR EASTERN COLORADO.
YESTERDAY'S MODELS BROKE OUT PRECIP ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THIS
MORNING AND NOTHING HAS HAPPENED. ALL THE ACTION HAS BEEN WELL EAST
INTO KANSAS. PATTERN FOR TONIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR...SO WOULD SUSPECT
MOST ACTION TO BE EAST OF COLORADO AGAIN. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS
OUT EAST TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT. LW

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

SUNDAY-MONDAY...MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AS LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING
OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT SENDING
ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY MORNING. BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE WAVES REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER BOTH
GFS AND NAM ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH H7 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATING A SATURATED AIRMASS TO AROUND H7...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AND ALONG WITH WAA HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT SLIGHT
POPS TO COVER ALL THE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING TO BECOME INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WITH LOWERING PRESSURES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND H7
BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTING BACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AHEAD OF
SECOND WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLIDING BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING AS FRONT BACKDOORS ACROSS THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THOUGH
BEST CHANCES SHOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
HAVE ALSO STAYED CLOSE TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH WARMER AND SLIGHTLY WETTER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...IN THE OFFING WITH INCREASING
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF NEXT PAC NW TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BROAD
TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SENDING A WET
FRONT AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. -MW

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVRF CIGS AND VSBYS FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF LA JUNTA AND ALSO ACROSS
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS...AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BRIEFLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

50/23


Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page