FXUS62 KRAH 251019
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
620 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019
A large area of high pressure will continue to extend down the
eastern seaboard into our region into Monday. Another trough of
low pressure and cold front will approach from the west by late
Tuesday and Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 620 AM Sunday...
A gradual rise in the low overcast this morning, then partial
clearing from the northwest today.
Strong (nearly 1030 mb) surface high pressure over New England
extended down the eastern seaboard into SC/GA this morning. This
high pressure had pushed the cold front deep into the Gulf Coast
states. Low overcast with areas of drizzle continue early this
morning behind the cold front. However, drier air noted in the mid
levels was beginning to slowly advect into central VA from the NW-N.
This drying is expected to slowly work into our region later this
morning into the afternoon. Given the extensive moist boundary layer
and residual areas of drizzle, it will take well into the morning
before partly sunny skies finally begin to spread into the north-
central and northern Piedmont/Coastal Plain. Surface dew points
should fall off into the mid to upper 50s over the northern zones
this afternoon. Highs today should be able to recover into the mid
70s, with some upper 70s in areas where there is a bit more partial
sunshine (mainly in the NE).
Tonight, the surface ridge will remain in place as the mid and level
ridge axis moves overhead. Skies are expected to be partly cloudy to
start. Lingering moisture in the boundary layer suggests at least
some low stratus to return along with some patchy fog. Lows
generally 55-60 north, and lower 60s south.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 233 am Sunday...
The surface high pressure ridge will slowly weaken as the
parent high to the northeast pulls away. As this occurs, a mid
level trough will push east into the TN Valley region late
Monday and Monday night. This approach of the mid level trough will
aid in keeping the developing low pressure out in the Gulf Stream
moving NE, away from the coast. There will be an increase
in cloudiness again as the trough approaches, especially
Monday afternoon. Highs generally will return into the 75-80 range
north and lower 80s south. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies
are expected Monday night with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 PM Saturday...
The coastal low should track well out to sea, having no impact on
central NC Tue-Wed. The approaching cold front should arrive on
Wednesday afternoon and evening, enhancing the chance of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The chance
may linger into Thursday in the east and south depending on the
timing of the cold front. The front should be over eastern NC
Thursday morning. This would allow drier air to work into the
western and northern sections Thursday afternoon limiting POP.
Temperatures will return to near normal late August readings
in the mid 80s to near 90 Wednesday and Thursday, with lows
in the mid 60s to around 70.
Drier air and warm temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday.
Lows in the 60s. Highs each day in the mid 80s to near 90.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 AM Sunday...
Occasional MVFR to IFR CIGS will continue through 12z-15z today.
Patchy MVFR to IFR VSBYS with light rain or drizzle in the east will
gradually end by daybreak. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR conditions will
return during the late morning and early afternoon from the north.
VFR conditions are then likely from mid morning Sun onward at these
Looking beyond 00z Sun, VFR to MVFR CIGS and dry weather will hold
through Mon night. An approaching trough from the west will bring a
return to rain chances and sub-VFR conditions Tue afternoon through
Wed night, followed by a return to mostly dry VFR conditions behind
a cold front on Thu.
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