FXUS62 KRAH 151906
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
305 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019
Cool Canadian high pressure will move offshore this afternoon,
allowing southwest flow to return across central North Carolina.
With the wind shift, much more summer-like temperatures will spread
throughout the region, especially by early next week. A cold front
will approach from the north on Wednesday, but stall north of the
region through Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Saturday...
Surface high pressure centered offshore and heading further out to
sea today will continue to extend westward across NC through
tonight. We'll see scattered mid and high thin clouds through the
rest of this afternoon, associated with passage of a weak mid level
perturbation. Behind this wave, heights aloft will start a slight
rebound late tonight. The cloud shield left over from today's
Midwest convection is likely to brush near or over NC overnight,
making for fair skies overall. Dewpoints will continue to climb back
up to more seasonable readings, and expect milder lows tonight, in
the low-mid 60s. -GIH
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM Saturday...
Within the steady SW low level flow and brief mid level ridging,
temps and dewpoints will continue to warm Sun, surpassing normals.
The faster mid level flow will hold just to our N and NW, keeping
the surface frontal zone and the path of convective systems largely
to our N and NW. Forecast soundings indicate a warm stable layer at
700-800 mb, but lapse rates further aloft are expected to be
sufficiently steep to push elevated CAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg. With
the likely close proximity of MCVs tracking just to our N and the
moderate CAPE potential, will include isolated thunder across our
far N sections late Sun afternoon and evening. Expect highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, as thicknesses climb steadily under partly
cloudy skies. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. -GIH
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 242 PM Saturday...
Near to slightly above normal temperatures and growing precipitation
chances will headline the long term period as central NC remains on
the western periphery of the strengthening Bermuda High. With best
jet dynamics displaced well north of the area closer to the
US/Canadian border and generally flat/weak mid-level flow overhead,
expect primarily diurnal favored POPs early in the work-week.
Coverage is likely to grow each sequential afternoon as surface
heating and moistening is maximized through midweek, enhanced
additionally on Wednesday afternoon as several weak mid-level
perturbation approach the area from the west. With modeled SFC-6km
Bulk Shear values expected to remain near to below 20kts and CAPE
values struggling to breach 1500 J/KG, thinking the severe threat at
this time should remain isolated at best, with single to multicell
clusters remaining the primary storm mode during this time frame.
By Thursday evening, upper level troughing will intensify to our
west, ushering a cold front through the region during the
evening/overnight hours, once again igniting some additional showers
and Tstorms. Behind the boundary, assuming it's able to slide all
the way through the area before stalling, expect a brief reprieve
from the active weather pattern lasting into the first half of the
weekend. By saturday evening however, the atmosphere is anticipated
to reload rather quickly, marking the return of primarily diurnal
precipitation chances back into the forecast.
Afternoon high temperatures will settle into the upper-80s
(northwest) to low 90s (southeast) with a degree or two shaved off
mid to late week thanks to a more plentiful/robust CU field
development. Overnight lows will settle into the upper-60s to low-
70s each night.
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM Saturday...
VFR conditions will dominate central NC terminals over the next 24
hours, however there is a small chance for patchy sub-VFR stratus at
INT/GSO early Sun morning 09z-13z. High pressure centered off the NC
coast will continue pushing away from land but continue to extend
westward across the state through Sun. The resulting low level flow
from the SW will bring gradually increasing humidity, prompting the
chance of MVFR-IFR stratus in western terminals early Sun morning.
In addition, borderline LLWS is possible near the VA border late
tonight, as a low level 30-35 kt jet from the SW crosses VA.
Looking beyond 18z Sun, VFR conditions will persist through Sun
evening, although an isolated storm is possible near the VA border
late Sun afternoon into early evening. Weak LLWS is again possible
Sun night near INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. We'll see mostly VFR conditions Mon
through Thu, but with an increasing chance for daily (mainly
afternoon and evening) showers and storms. There is a slight chance
of sub-VFR stratus for a few hours each morning, particularly Wed
Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page