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FXUS62 KRAH 260810
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
410 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

A dry cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, followed by high
pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...

Frontal zone will continue to be suppressed south, and will lie
along the coast southeast of the area today. We will remain in a
pleasantly dry airmass with westerly flow inducing lee troffing and
a bit of a warmup into the mid and upper 80s...just a bit above
Sunday's highs...over the Piedmont this afternoon. A second
reinforcing dry surface front will move across the area late today.
The front will be accompanied by increasing high cloudiness as a mid
level jet streak races east across the Ohio Valley. The Mid/high
cloudiness will become even more prevalent tonight as a second
impulse digs into the broad trof over the central Conus, amplifying
and nudging it eastward. Highs will be a bit below seasonal...mostly
in the mid 80s with some upper 80s across the southern tier. Mins
tonight will fall to the upper 50s north...and to the lower 60s
south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...

Our coolest airmass will be in place Tuesday and Tuesday night as
the upper trof axis moves across the area, perhaps accompanied by a
few showers...in the mid morning to early afternoon west...and in
the afternoon to evening in the east. Highs will top out in the
upper 70s north to lower 80s south. With clouds departing early
tomorrow night, mins will radiate down into the mid and upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

The flow aloft will become increasingly zonal through the middle of
the week, as a trough initially centered over the Great Lakes lifts
out and a sub-tropical ridge builds over the wrn N. Atlantic. Weakly
perturbed swly flow aloft, on the wrn periphery of the sub-tropical
ridge, will then develop from the MS Valley to the middle Atlantic
region Fri through the weekend, as an upstream trough settles across
the central U.S.

At the surface, Canadian high pressure will crest over the srn
middle Atlantic states (NC/VA) Wed, then drift offshore and into the
central N. Atlantic, where it will remain throughout the forecast
period. Return flow around the high will yield gradually increasing
temperatures and humidity levels, both of which will likely peak Sun-
Mon. Deep dryness, characterized by precipitable water values
initially between one half and three quarters of an inch on Wed,
will ensure dry conditions until at least Fri, after which time the
aforementioned increasing warming and moistening low levels, amidst
a sharpening Appalachian-lee trough, should prove sufficient for at
least scattered convection during the upcoming holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday through Friday/...
As of 155 AM Sunday...

A dry airmass will remain in place with VFR conditions through the
next 24 hours over central NC. High cloudiness will increase this
evening through tonight as a strong upper jet races across the Ohio
Valley in response to gradual amplification of an upper trof as moves
over the eastern CONUS. No restrictions to visibility through the
period due to dryness, and winds will be generally from the
northwest and light.

Outlook for the remainder of the week - High pressure will produce
VFR conditions through the work week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...mlm
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...mlm
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