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FXUS65 KREV 101045
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
245 AM PST Mon Dec 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Low clouds remain in many valley locations this morning below a
strong temperature inversion. Two weak systems will move through
the region, one today and another Tuesday night. Snow and rain
showers will be possible, mainly north of hwy 50, but accumulation
will be light. The pattern remains active with additional storms
possible the next weekend into the start of the following week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

Low level clouds eroded in western Nevada yesterday afternoon and
allowed some sunshine into Reno for a few hours. However, strong
temperature inversions remain in place and low level clouds
reformed overnight.

Two weak systems will move through the region today and tomorrow,
but overall precipitation is expected to be very light with areas
north of highway 50 possibly picking up a few hundredths and many
locations, especially south of highway 50, likely seeing little
to no accumulation.

The systems may be weak, but temperature inversions will keep the
precipitation-type forecast interesting. The most likely scenario
is that some areas will mix inversion out today and tomorrow as
cooler air aloft destabilizes the inversion, while some protected
valley locations continue to hold on to inversions and colder
surface temperatures. This will likely lead to a mixed bag of
precipitation types at similar elevations, with rain showers in
some low valleys and snow showers in others. So 'snow level' may
not really apply in an regional sense today.

Best chances for precipitation today will be right along the weak
cold front as it moves through the region. The front is currently
moving through northern California and is forecast to move through
northern Nevada this afternoon. The secondary wave for Tuesday
night again has very little QPF with the best chances for
accumulation near the Oregon border. -Zach


.LONG TERM...
Some minor adjustments made with temperatures and chances of precip
for Friday into Sunday, but overall ideas remain the same. As far as
confidence, it is higher this morning with the fast moving
Friday/Friday night system, but lower for Sunday as the EC is split.
More on this below.

Thursday remains quiet under a short wave ridge, but the next
system is on its heels for Friday into Friday night. This will have
some wind ahead of it, and it could be quite gusty along the 395
corridor as 700 mb winds reach 50+ kts. We have increased the winds
a bit this morning. As for the precip side, it looks to focus north
of Highway 50 and with a quick shot of up to 1 inch of water. Much
of this will be snow as snow levels still look to be near 5000-5500
feet. Spillover isn't impressive, but a quick burst along the front
is possible Friday evening.

Another short wave ridge Saturday before another, possibly stronger
system moves in Sunday. The GFS and FV3 and GEFS remain consistent
with the jet focused near I-80 and a decent amount of precip. The EC
is back to splitting it apart around the area. Will stick with the
more consistent solutions for now, but not increase the threat of
precip too much yet. X

&&

.AVIATION...
Low clouds to continue through this morning, but expect a better
chance of breaking up as the weak upper level front moves through.
IFR CIGS for the 395 corridor (KRNO/KCXP/KRTS/KSVE/KLOL/KNFL)
eastward will continue at near or BLO 010, but think they will break
up around 20Z from west to east as colder air aloft moves in. There
could be a few -SHSN with this system north of I-80, but no runway
accumulations. Expect VFR conditions for the terminals after 02Z,
but there still remains a 25% chance the low clouds hang on for some
areas.

As for the Sierra terminals, mainly VFR except for the FZFG near
KTRK through 16Z. Ridge winds gusting to 45 kts this morning with
mtn wave turbulence will gradually weaken into this evening.

Another system for Tuesday night looks to have little impact aside
from some gusty ridge winds. Friday's system looks better currently
with gusty winds and some lowered CIGS/VIS in -SHSN/RA. X

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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