FXUS65 KREV 160933
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
233 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018
Low pressure moving across the Pacific Northwest will limit
thunderstorm chances today to Mono and Mineral counties.
Thunderstorms are unlikely across all of the region from Friday
through much of next week. Above average daytime highs will
continue with typical afternoon breezes for much of the upcoming
week, although overnight lows will be cooler.
With increasing southwest flow across the Sierra due to a weak
low pressure trough reaching the Pacific Northwest coast, drier
and more stable air will spread across most of eastern CA-western
NV today. There is a bit of instability lingering across southern
and eastern portions of Mono and Mineral Counties, and far
eastern Churchill County, where a few late day thunderstorms could
develop. Storm coverage will be more sparse compared to the
previous few days, with limited rainfall and local outflow gusts
to 40 mph possible. For Friday and Saturday, all areas will be
clear of the thunderstorm threat as the dry and stable air mass
reaches Mono-Mineral as well. As for smoke potential, the increase
in southwest flow could bring narrower but more concentrated smoke
plumes mainly from the Donnell fire into parts of Alpine, Douglas,
Mono and Lyon counties. Otherwise, we'll keep a general mention
of haze across the rest of the region through Friday, with few
impacts to visibility or air quality.
Daytime temperatures for the next few days will continue to be
3-7 degrees above average, with highs mainly in the 90s for
western NV and 80s for Sierra valleys. The most notable change
will be cooler nights due to the drier air mass, with lows
generally in the 50s-lower 60s for most lower elevations, and 40s
near the Sierra (except 30s for the typically cooler Sierra
Typical late day west breezes are expected today, with gusts
generally 25 mph or less. As the trough moves inland Friday, winds
could pick up a bit more with gusts 25-30 mph. Then by Saturday,
lighter winds are expected as high pressure becomes more
established across the southern half of CA/NV. MJD
.LONG TERM...Sunday through next week...
Ridge remains firmly in place over the Four Corners through next
week with relatively dry and stable southwest flow over the Sierra
and western Nevada. Clear skies and drier air will lead to cool
morning low temperatures, along with hot afternoons in the upper 90s
across western Nevada and upper 80s in the Sierra. Weak low pressure
systems will brush by to the north next week, bringing periods of
breezy afternoon zephyr winds. At this time, there is not enough
confidence to say which day looks to be breezier than the others.
Though, it's pretty safe to say that we will not see any
thunderstorm activity next week due to the dry southwest flow
* Smoke and haze are having much less impact on the region so it
won't be mentioned in any TAFs. Can't rule out some local MVFR
haze downwind of the Donnell Fire near BAN (Bridgeport). That
being said, there will be a general light haze as California
fires send some smoke into Nevada on southwest-west flow aloft.
* Flying weather looks a lot better today and Friday with VFR
conditions and typical afternoon and early evening southwest-west
breezes. Isolated storms are possible south of KBAN-KHTH today
with no storm risk Friday through the weekend.
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