FXUS65 KREV 270950
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
250 AM PDT Sat May 27 2017
Cold and swift flows along with minor flooding will continue near
creeks, streams and rivers this Memorial Day weekend as the spring
Sierra snow melt continues. A warming trend will be in store this
weekend and into early next week as high pressure builds. Light
winds with some cumulus build ups are possible on the Sierra this
weekend with a few showers and storms possible next week.
High pressure will strengthen this Memorial Day weekend and into
early next week. This will provide us light winds and a warming
trend with highs reaching about 10 to 15 degrees above season
averages by Monday. This would yield highs around the 90 degree
mark across western Nevada and upper 70s for Sierra valleys.
Overall, dry conditions will prevail with mainly cumulus cloud
development across the Sierra each afternoon. By Monday, the ridge
begins to slide eastward which will provide better low-level
instability which may allow some isolated shower and storm
development across the Sierra mainly south of the Tahoe Basin.
The warm temperatures will continue the Sierra spring snowmelt and
will allow cold and swift flows along with minor flooding near
creeks, streams and rivers. Flows can be hazardous and life
threatening so it would be wise to keep a safe distance from these
The focus for the long term will be on a potential weak upper low
Wednesday, if it were to occur. It approaches Tuesday as a split
system with SSW flow increasing a bit aloft. I pushed the threat
of thunderstorms off the crest with the increase SW flow and also
extended them through Mineral County, although anything that does
form will be isolated.
Wednesday is a bit of a dilemma with the GFS consistent with the
low splitting off and some deformation across the Sierra into
Western NV during the day. The EC has more of an open wave,
although it does generate some light showers at the same time. The
system will bring some moisture with it, but the forcing is light
and the instability is weak. Continued with the slight chance of
storms, although it may be more showers. While the confidence in
any showers is low, we have high confidence that it will cool off
a good 10 degrees or so from Tuesday.
This trough then moves east with light west flow in its wake. Some
ridging is expected behind the trough, but how strong is the
question. The GFS is weaker while the EC builds one in rather
robustly. Will continue with a more moderate warmup that is a
blend of the models and their ensembles. Wallmann
VFR with light winds through the weekend and into Monday. A bit
more of an east wind today becoming more west by Monday afternoon.
There is a small threat of -TSRA south of Tahoe over the Sierra
both Sunday and Monday, but storms will be isolated. Wallmann
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