FXUS65 KREV 061017
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
312 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY A SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NW. IT IS CURRENTLY NEAR 45N 140W. THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET
MODELS ALL SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE REACHING 135W BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS
PROJECTION SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE CURRENT SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM. THUS SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY ACROSS THE KREV
CWFA WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NRN ZONES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE FLATTENING THE SWRN CONUS
RIDGE ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO BUILD NORTH
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS TEMPERTURES WARM. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASED HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS OREGON. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE AFFECTED MUCH ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
TEMPERATURE AND HEIGHT GRADIENTS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. AFTN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS WRN NEVADA AND IN THE
70S IN THE SIERRA. THIS IS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

ON WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH THROUGH OREGON TOWARD NRN
NEVADA AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE THE LOWERED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESS VALUES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY SO
NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. AIR TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL
BE COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. AFTN HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S ACROSS WRN NEVADA...SIMILAR TO TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES.
O'HARA

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COOLING TREND
AS TROUGH OVER THE PACNW DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE INTERIOR WEST. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE...COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS. WHILE TELECONNECTIONS AND
UPSTREAM RIDGING SUPPORT A FURTHER WEST SOLUTION...THE ECMWF IS MOST
LIKELY TOO EXTREME WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN IT AND THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE GFS THE BEST SOLUTION. SO THE
FORECAST TRENDS WERE LEFT MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH COOLING STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND A SLIGHT WARMING TOWARD END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH
PROGRESSES EAST A BIT. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLED SOME MORE THURSDAY
IN ANTICIPATION OF A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. DEWPOINTS BEHIND SYSTEM LOWER INTO THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
NIGHTTIME READINGS LIKELY TO HIT SUBFREEZING NUMBERS IN MANY AREAS
DURING PERIOD. SHOWERS WERE MAINTAINED FOR SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. HOHMANN
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL LOCALIZED SHALLOW FOG
BANK AROUND KTRK THROUGH 16Z AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. HOHMANN
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

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