FXUS65 KREV 191005
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
305 AM PDT Tue Jun 19 2018
Much warmer and drier conditions will prevail for the rest of the
week. Gusty afternoon winds with well above normal temperatures are
projected for Wednesday and Thursday, with lighter winds on Friday.
Thunderstorm risks remain quite low through at least next weekend.
High pressure strengthens over northeast California and western
Nevada through Wednesday, bringing 5 to 10 degrees of warming each
day with highs reaching the 80s (Sierra valleys) and 90s (western NV
valleys) by Wednesday. A weak wave moving by to the north Wednesday
night will induce an increase in winds (gusts 25-30 mph, locally
to 35 mph, out into far western NV) Wednesday afternoon and evening.
This will bring heightened safety concerns for boaters on area lakes,
especially west of Pyramid Lake and Lahontan Reservoir. Fire concerns
will also rise somewhat in Basin areas with dried out grasses.
Thursday, the warming trend will be halted as the weak wave moves
by to the north, although highs will still top out a toasty 7-10
degrees above average. Breezy conditions are expected once again
by the afternoon as the zephyr kicks in, although speeds will not
be anything unusual. -Snyder
.LONG TERM...Friday into early next week...
The overall pattern will focus on the evolution of the subtropical
ridge and any short waves passing by to the north. The ridge
retrogrades off the coast briefly over the weekend as a short wave
drops down the Front Range of the Rockies...then it moves east
back over Arizona/New Mexico early next week as another trough
moves into the Pacific Northwest. Overall, it doesn't mean much
for temperatures as they will remain above average for late June.
Main effect will be on the winds with them being more from the north
to northeast late Friday into the weekend, and they will be locally
gusty overnight. Then, as the next short wave moves in, the zephyr
returns and may be a bit stronger depending on the track of the trough.
Concerns for fire weather may increase. X
VFR conditions through Thursday with light NW to NE winds this
afternoon and evening. FG for KTRK this morning looks minimal, and
very shallow if it forms at all, chances about 25%. Winds will
become locally gusty for the Sierra and adjacent east slopes Wed
afternoon/evening with peak gusts to 25 kts from the SW-W. Some mtn
wave turbulence can be expected, but it will be moderate at best. X
Local critical conditions are possible Wednesday ahead of a wave
moving into Oregon. The timing of the wave is not ideal for widespread
critical conditions, but be best chances of seeing them would be along
the Sierra Front and just on the east side of the Pine Nuts/Virginia
Range. The winds Thursday look lighter now with a generic zephyr
day expected, but that would still produce gusts to 25-30 mph in
many areas along the 395 corridor.
The airmass will become very dry beginning Wednesday night, with
poor overnight recovery for many mid slope and ridge locations
continuing into Friday. Afternoon humidity will also drop into the
single digits during the afternoons. Of note with this pattern,
the Tahoe Basin will see mid slope and ridge recoveries in the
mid-evening, only to crater overnight into the single digits and
teens. 24-hr min RH will be overnight for these locations, not
fitting a typical diurnal trend. X
NV...Flood Watch until 10 AM PDT this morning NVZ003.
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