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FXUS61 KRLX 242355
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
755 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level short wave trough brings unsettled weather for
the start of the Memorial Day weekend. The weather may settle
down a bit for Memorial Day itself. Tropical remnants midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 755 PM Thursday...

Forecast on track as scattered showers far south die with
sunset.

As of 205 PM Thursday...

Quiet forecast for mid to late May on the front end of the near
term. Expecting mainly clear skies through tonight and
temperatures back down into the upper 50s/lower 60s for the
lowlands and lower 50s for the mountains. Clouds increase from
south to north tomorrow as the mid level moisture depth returns
to the region while the upper level ridge begins to deteriorate.
Weak waves aloft will advect from the south into the southern
zones, triggering showers and a few storms during prime heating
hours, putting the CWA back into the general thunderstorm risk
area from SPC. Temperatures on the increase with mid to upper
80s dominating the lowlands, and the stray 90F is not out of the
question from the Kanawha/Tug Fork valleys into the Tri State
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Thursday...

While we won't see constant showers and storms through the period,
we are in the moisture stream coming off the Gulf so have at least
low end POPs throughout. Aloft, initially we will be on the western
side of a ridge, but several ripples will pass through as a trough
begins moving into the Great Lakes. Have the highest POPs late
Saturday into Saturday night as this upper trough passes by. For
Sunday, we start to see a bigger influence from a tropical system
approaching the Gulf Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM Thursday...

The bulk of the long term is dominated by the gradually decaying
tropical system drifting through the southern states and an upper
level low/trough coming out of the Great Basin and crossing the
northern US Rockies. While we are on the fringe of both of these
systems early in the week, we will still have plenty of moisture and
enough upper level impulses crossing to keep POPs going. A cold
front will try to sink through Monday night into Tuesday, but
have some uncertainty on how far it will make it with the Gulf
system still over the lower Mississippi Valley. By mid to late
week, models show the surface remnants of the tropical system
passing by to our south, with additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. There will be plenty of moisture to work with, so
periods of heavy rain are expected. Flooding potential will
depend on the track of the system and how much rainfall is
accumulated from the showers and storms earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 755 PM Thursday...

Model soundings, MOS and near term guidance not depicting fog
overnight tonight, as a low level jet develops and patchy
stratocu rolls through, so kept fog out of the forecast.

Mid level moisture increases from the south on Friday. ahead of
a weak upper level short wave trough approaching from the west.
This will give rise to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, mainly across southern WV, SW VA and NE KY early,
but also possible farther north, across northern WV and SE
Ohio, by Friday evening. Confidence in coverage and location too
low to code up explicitly in the TAFs at this distance.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR stratocu may get close to BKW for a
time early Friday morning, and overnight/early morning fog
cannot be entirely ruled out at the other sites.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM
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