FXUS61 KRLX 181847
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
247 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019
High pressure builds into the region for Monday night and
Tuesday. Another series of weak waves crosses Wednesday night
through Friday. High pressure for the end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Monday...
Still a few lingering light snow showers across northeastern
zones this afternoon in upslope flow behind a departing
disturbance. These should start to taper off later this
afternoon/evening, with gradual clearning taking hold as high
pressure continues to nudge eastward into the region. As with
previous forecast, kept overnight lows slightly below guidance
with light surface winds/clear sky expected.
High pressure remains in control for Tuesday with dry and mild
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM Monday...
The period starts with surface high pressure, mainly zonal/WNW flow
overhead, and clear, dry conditions. Mainly cirrus cover overspreads
the area from the West starting early Wednesday ahead of the next
system. Clouds should be high enough to allow for some radiational
cooling Wednesday morning, with most areas reaching below freezing.
Sheltered valleys will likely dip into the 20's, with values near 20
possible across the higher elevations.
Wednesday, light winds turn southerly, eventually southeasterly, as
a shortwave trough aloft approaches. Precipitation along the cold
front arrives from the by the evening, crossing the CWA through
Thursday morning. While temperatures will be favorable for snow
showers across the higher elevations, moisture content with
this system remains low, with total QPF generally <0.2". So,
snowfall amounts would be generally light, and no flooding
issues are expected. The shortwave amplifies as it enters the
area, however, meaning mesoscale forcing could be potentially
stronger, so will have to keep an eye on this system to see how
much moisture it could possibly utilize. Ultimately a maximum
of a couple inches is possible with an over-achieving snow
shower, but unlikely at this juncture.
Showers linger through much of Thursday until the upper level trough
kicks East by the end of the day. Temperatures climb into the 40's
and 50's area-wide, so any snowfall that does fall during the
morning will melt off anyway. Some sleet or freezing rain/drizzle
may occur Thursday morning, but there doesn't exist enough
confidence at this stage to include it in the forecast.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM Monday...
As the previous shortwave trough axis rotates out to the Atlantic,
another wave comes quickly on its heels, rotating down the western
Great Lakes through the mean long-wave trough overhead. This wave
would be even more moisture-starved than the last, however, so
expecting mainly an uptick in upslope shower activity Friday morning
and a reinforcement of cooler, below-average temperatures for
the end of the work week. A couple tenths of additional
snowfall is possible across highest ridges and peaks.
High pressure rules the roost through the weekend with temperatures
trending up, especially for Sunday, with temperatures likely
reaching the 60's across most areas. The next system and rain
chances return by Monday.
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 605 AM Monday...
Some light snow will cause brief MVFR/IFR restrictions in the
northern WV mountains through 21Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
with light surface winds.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of snow showers and associated
restrictions could vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible Thursday in rain and snow showers.
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