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FXUS61 KRLX 271034
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
634 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses this morning. High pressure crosses
tonight. Warmer, more humid and unsettled latter half of the
week. Cold front crosses by Sunday but returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...

Forecast on track with showers ahead of cold front becoming more
widely scattered.

As of 420 AM Tuesday...

A cold front crossing the Ohio River early this morning is
likely to become better defined in the surface wind field on
mixing after sunrise, but then may become more difficult to find
as it jumps the mountains late this morning. Models insist
showers break up ahead of the front this morning, as thin mid
level CAPE gives way to mid level drying. The chance for midday
or early afternoon thunder in the mountains is very small
though not quite zero.

High pressure builds in for a clear, calm, cool night tonight.

Short term consensus blend close to previous and MAV for highs
today, the MAV was a bit high. MAV/MET/previous/short term
consensus blend used for lows this upcoming radiative cooling
night, at or a little below previous. GFS based MOS has had 45
at EKN for days, as has the forecast.

Forecast lows tonight are close to records in some cases:

Location Forecast low tonight Record Year

CRW Charleston 52 50 1988+prev yrs
HTS Huntington 50 47 1915
PKB Parkerburg 50 48 1988
EKN Elkins 45 39 1988
BKW Beckley 48 44 1970
CKB Clarksburg 49 record database is being developed

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM Tuesday...

Sfc High pressure prevails across southeast OH and WV through
Thursday.

A low pressure system will move east over the Great Lakes region
Thursday night. Winds become southwest pumping warm air and moisture
to the area as a cold front approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 AM Monday...

A cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure system
will slowly progress east and south to approach southeast OH by
Sunday morning. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures, abundant moisture
and instability could produce some showers or storms activity
Friday, Saturday and Saturday night.

The front becomes stationary west to east across our area Monday and
Tuesday to continue with chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...

VFR today with widely scattered, unimpactful showers ahead of
cold front this morning. Scattered to at times broken cu deck in
the wake of the cold front this afternoon up at 5-6 kft.

Clear, calm, cool night tonight as high pressure crosses, with
vally fog forming that can go IFR.

Light northwest flow in the wake of the front today may become a
bit gusty in the mountains this afternoon, before becomes calm
tonight, with light west to northwest flow aloft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Valley fog formation may vary in time and
intensity overnight tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM
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