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FXUS61 KRLX 171926
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
226 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak system brings spotty light precipitation this evening,
lingering into Monday. Cold fronts cross Tuesday and again
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Sunday...

A dampening wave will move across the region this afternoon and
evening. While some light precipitation is expected, most of
the moisture will be used trying to wet the lower levels of the
atmosphere. Therefore, precipitation amounts will remain on the
lighter side.

Models showing a stratus deck moving in behind the system
overnight, with some drizzle is possible. Models differ
considerably on the handling of this deck on Monday, with some
maintaining the stratus deck for much of the area and
other raising the deck. Will lean toward the higher resolution
models which are maintaining the deck for most of the area and
keeping drizzle a possibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

Weak lift and saturday low levels will allow areas of drizzle to
linger Monday night across the area, and perhaps into Tuesday
morning across northern counties. Attention then turns to a
southern system that looks to pass close enough for some rain
Wednesday across southwest VA and southern WV. Temps will
moderate through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM Sunday...

Superblend guidance was generally followed in the extended with
trend to delay any significant cold air into the area until the
following week. There remains uncertainty on how much of a push
the cold front gets this weekend, regardless Saturday looks
wet.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Sunday...

A weakening upper level wave will streak quickly across the
area this afternoon, bringing some light rain. However, the low
levels are so dry, and the system will be moving so fast, that
much of the rain will not reach the ground at first, and the
rain does does is not likely to cause aviation restrictions.

The system will then pull east of the area tonight, but low
level moisture will increase. This will allow for ceilings to
continue to fall, becoming MVFR and then possible IFR. Some
drizzle is also a possibility overnight and into Monday morning.
With the lower ceilings and drizzle, some restrictions in fog
can not be ruled out, through confidence on whether this happens
is low.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this afternoon and evening, then
moderate.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR clouds and whether they
become IFR clouds could vary. Fog may form late tonight,
persisting into Monday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR in stratus possible Monday afternoon and night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY
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