FXUS61 KRLX 250648
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
248 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019
High pressure with dry and cooler weather through Sunday. Upper
level system Monday night. Cold front Tuesday night. High
pressure through Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 248 AM Sunday...
Latest satellite imagery and observations reveals that river valley
fog has once again formed this morning across parts of the area,
with the greatest coverage so far across the Tug Fork region. Some
lingering stratus across the northern FA has delayed fog development
so far, but should still be possible, especially near EKN.
Upper level ridge in eastern Canada remains in control today,
supporting a very dry atmosphere with PWATs around a modest 0.50
inches throughout the region. Forecast soundings reveal that the
subsidence today will lead to a stable layer around 5-7 kft AGL,
yielding the development of a cumulus deck this afternoon as diurnal
heating increases. Weak warm air advection will occur as the upper
ridge axis north of the region continues to shift further eastward.
Thus, temperatures will be a degree or two warmer today than
yesterday, with the majority of the area around or just above 80F.
Cloud cover is expected to increase from west to east this evening
as a shortwave trough is progged to track across the mid Mississippi
Valley. Increasing southwest flow ahead of this feature will bring
an increase into the area by the end of the period, but the majority
of precipitation is expected to hold off until the short term
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...
Pattern becomes active again with in southwest flow aloft, low
amplitude trough axes, and lower level moisture advection back
into the region. Despite the change in the column to more
favorable conditions for upward motion, the thunder chances are
rather modest going into Monday night/Tuesday. The better
dynamics will remain to the west, closer to the frontal boundary
that will work its way through later in the short term. The
speed of the cold front will be governed by a surface low north
of the Canadian border, in a system that is occluded/stacking
and eventually filling. This could play a little bit of havoc
with the timing, but the front should be through the mountains
Wednesday. A tropical system moving northeastward away from the
coast could also hamper forward speed, but the main interactions
should be well east of us.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...
A return to drier/cooler/quieter conditions returns for the end
of the week, but the next trough axis aloft and frontal boundary
will sink southward into the area for Saturday. Dewpoints in the
mid 50s to lower 60s will dictate a slightly greater diurnal
temperature trend as we get later into summer.
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 AM Sunday...
Latest satellite imagery shows that river valley fog is starting
to develop across parts of the area. Expecting LIFR/IFR
conditions to develop with cigs and/or vsby restrictions at
terminals impacted by fog.
Any fog that develops should dissipate around 13Z Sunday, with
VFR conditions returning to the region. A cumulus deck around
5-7 kft AGL is then expected to develop Sunday afternoon as
diurnal heating increases, but conditions are expected to remain
VFR through the end of the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of fog tonight may vary
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 08/25/19
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M L H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR is possible in showers and thunderstorms on Monday.
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