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FXUS61 KRLX 060226
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1026 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
As the rain and storm chances tapers off this late afternoon, a
cold front brings them right back for Saturday. High pressure
brings drier weather for the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1026 PM Friday...

Updated hourly temperatures as most areas were trending a bit
warmer than previous forecast. Also, recent satellite imagery
from GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics RGB shows fog is quickly
developing across the region generally from the Tug Fork
northeastward to the Tygart Valley so far. This should continue
to expand across the lowlands overnight as T/Td spreads
continue lessen.

As of 746 PM Friday...

Latest regional radar imagery shows that most of the
precipitation activity associated with a low amplitude trough
axis has mainly tapered off across most of the region. However,
a few lingering showers will remain for another hour or two
across the mountains, but this activity will continue to
diminish as the trough axis pushes east of the area. As a
result, freshened up PoPs based on latest radar trends.
Otherwise, main forecast challenge overnight will be determining
how much fog may be able to spread. With several ingredients in
place to support widespread fog development due to recent heavy
rainfall and light boundary layer flow, have expanded the
coverage of fog overnight to make it pretty widespread across
the region. This has potential to be pretty dense in spots so
will continue to monitor trends through the remainder of the
evening as this evolves.

As of 158 PM Friday...

Showers and storms will diminish in intensity and coverage this
evening as the H500 shortwave continues moving east across the
southern coalfields. Once showers exit the eastern mountains this
evening, expect a muggy/foggy but tranquil night. Boundary
layer flow at 10 knots or less, antecedent precipitation and
periods of clearing overnight will allow for radiational cooling
and associated dense fog development overnight tonight. Any fog
will dissipate by 13Z Saturday.

Models bring a relatively dry cold front arriving to southeast OH at
12Z Saturday. Models do not show much in their QPF fields. This
front will brush some of the low level moisture away leading to long
periods of sunshine on Saturday. Therefore, expect heat to build up
Saturday afternoon with temperatures reaching the upper 80s.
There will be enough moisture to mix with the heat to produce
additional showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Heavy
downpours will be capable to produce high water issues with this
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

Any remaining precipitation associated with Saturday's cold front
should be finished tapering out by Saturday night. High pressure, as
well as an upper level ridge, begin to move into the area,
leaving the short term period dry and mostly clear. Sunday's
temperatures should be on the cooler side compared to the past
few days and much closer to normal for this time of the year,
with high 70s to low 80s across the lowlands, and 60s to mid
70s for the higher elevations. However, it heats right back up
for Monday in the mid to high 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM Friday...

Tuesday will continue to be dry and hot with high temperatures
in the low 90s. Clouds should begin to push back into the area
as the next system begins to approach. Tropical Storm Cristobal
is projected to move up the Mississippi River, remaining west
of the area. However, a cold front moves in from the west
sometime Wednesday into Thursday, pushing Cristobal eastward.
Precipitation will likely move into the area along and ahead of
the cold front and with the moisture associated with Cristobal.
The GFS shows the system moving off to the northeast once it
reaches the midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday, remaining to
the north of the area. It shows precipitation from the front and
the moisture south of the system affecting the area Wednesday,
lingering through Thursday. The ECMWF and Canadian show similar
tracks of the system, although they bring the precipitation to
the area on Wednesday night into Thursday, slightly later than
the GFS does. The models also show surface high pressure moving
in from the west, behind the system, for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 740 PM Friday...

Scattered showers across the mountains will continue to
dissipate this evening as an upper disturbance departs the area
with primarily VFR conditions area-wide to begin the TAF
period. However, occasional periods of MVFR ceilings may occur
at KBKW as low clouds linger in the wake of the disturbance.

Given the recent rainfall and clear to partly cloudy skies
forecast for tonight, widespread fog may develop across the
area. Thus, flight conditions are expected to deteriorate
overnight with conditions becoming IFR or even LIFR in areas
where fog is most dense.

Any fog across the area should dissipate around 12-13Z Saturday
as high pressure builds in and this will result in VFR
conditions through the remainder of the TAF period. In addition,
a weak cold front will move from northwest to southeast across
the area Saturday morning into the afternoon with surface winds
switching to the NW behind the front, but no flight restrictions
are expected from the frontal passage.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, duration, and coverage of fog
development overnight may very from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SAT 06/06/20
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H M L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L M H M H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in fog Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/CG
NEAR TERM...ARJ/RG
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RG
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