FXUS61 KRLX 061814
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
214 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE US COAST
PULLS AWAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS...AND THE UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. OTHER THAN SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. THE
NAM TRIES TO INDICATE THAT SOME SE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE EASTERN UPSLOPE REGIONS...BUT THAT SEEMS TO BE OVER DONE AS
THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE MOISTURE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOOKING
AT THE SATELLITE AT THE MOMENT...THEIR IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS IN THE CAROLINAS AT THIS TIME AND THE FLOW IS NORTHERLY
STILL. THE AMOUNT OF TIME THE MODEL SHOWS THE SE FLOW IS VERY
LIMITED AND WITHOUT MUCH OF A MOISTURE FEED...CAN NOT SEE A
WIDESPREAD CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING. SO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...JUST
SOME CIRRUS AND RIVER FOG...THE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
GOOD AND THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT SO WILL
COMBINE PERSISTENCE WITH THE NEW MODEL RUNS.

ON TUESDAY...WITH THE RIDGING OVERHEAD...THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES BOUNCING BACK UP INTO THE MID 70-TO NEAR
80...CLOSE TO THE MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE COMING CLOSER TOGETHER WITH THE PLACEMENT OF UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THAT WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF.

APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES...NEW NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS
CAT POPS ACROSS WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST. OTHER GUIDANCE IS NOT AS HIGH. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE WEST TO REFLECT THIS NEW GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH WESTERN NEIGHBORS.

TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE QUITE WARM....WHILE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS TEMP
FORECAST STILL LOOK REASONABLE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF BOTH INDICATE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY TO THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. ONCE
AGAIN...GFS IS FASTEST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...PROBABLY
TOO FAST.

BECAUSE OF INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE TWEAKED POPS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TO REFLECT LATEST THINKING.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK REASONABLE.

GRIDS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WERE GENERALLY LEFT UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RELAX OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NRN WV WILL WEAKEN AFTER ABOUT 22Z TO 00Z
AND THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS. FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING PATTERN SETS UP. USED LAST
NIGHT AS A GUIDE BUT DID ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG IN THE
SOUTH...BUT KEPT VALUES MAINLY AT MVFR LEVELS...SAVE FOR EKN WHICH
SHOULD SEE IFR VALUES.

THE FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAILS WITH
SOME AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPING...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z TUESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ALONG RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...29/ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...29
AVIATION...ESS




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