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FXUS61 KRLX 171743
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
143 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses today. High pressure Wednesday through
Thursday. Low pressure Friday through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Tuesday...

A cold front is working its way across the forecast area this
afternoon, with showers popping up along and ahead of it in
upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints. The drier air lags behind the
front a bit, with mid to upper 50s dewpoints now working across
central Ohio. Have not been seeing much lightning from the
activity across the forecast area so far, but with some peaks of
sunshine out there think enough instability will be available
for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. With the
abundant moisture, downpours can be expected from any developed
shower or storm. However, things are moving along nicely which
limits water concerns. Main thing to watch for would be heavy
rain moving across areas that were hit hard earlier today. Did
cut back temperatures a bit today across the mountains where
clouds are standing firm.

Behind the front tonight clouds should break up giving mostly
clear skies. Low level moisture should take most of the night to
scour out, so river valley fog is expected along and east of the
Ohio River -- generally where the showers are today.

High pressure moves into the western Great Lakes region late
tonight into tomorrow. This will bring a sunny and dry day for
Wednesday with near normal afternoon highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...

High pressure traversing the Great Lakes region will provide
cooler, drier northerly flow for a pleasant short term period.
Mostly sunny conditions are likely across the area with lowland
highs in the low-80's Wednesday and mid-80's Thursday. Calm,
clear conditions early Thursday will likely lead to a good
radiational/fog morning.

Low level winds turn easterly and eventually southerly Thursday
into Thursday night, bringing in warmth and moisture, ahead of a
trough digging down the Upper Mississippi Valley. A few light
showers are possible at the end of the period with a
destabilizing atmosphere.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...

Southerly flow increases moisture to 1.75" PWAT Friday with
storms moving in from the West aided by the heat of day.
Moisture eventually increases to near 1.9" as a cold front
approaches Saturday, thus heavy rain is likely and as usual
during the summer months, at least localized water issues will
need to be watched. Although it's still too far out for a proper
meso- analysis, initial thought on severe weather potential is
that instability/shear are marginally supportive at best of
strong to severe storms with Saturday likely having the
greatest threat with frontal passage.

The cold front passes by Saturday night, though post- frontal
surface troughs beneath the slow-moving wave aloft leaves
generally showery conditions through Monday. Thunderstorm
activity would likely rely on diurnal support.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Tuesday...

Showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front will
continue moving east this afternoon and evening. Due to
scattered natured of these did not code in any restrictions,
sticking with vicinity wording, however should a shower or storm
cross a terminal site IFR visibilities are possible.

Have somewhat low confidence on fog forecast tonight. Dry air
will be trying to move in behind the cold front, but models
showing it struggling to scour out all the low level moisture
before fog forms. Opted to include fog tonight with fairly wet
ground and warm water in the rivers. Any fog that forms should
dissipate after sunrise on Wednesday with VFR expected for the
remainder of the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Amendments may be needed for restrictions
in showers and storms. Timing and density of fog may vary
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Morning river valley fog possible through the end of the work
week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...MZ
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