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FXUS61 KRNK 290713
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
313 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes across the area this afternoon into
tonight, slowing a bit east of the piedmont Saturday. High
pressure builds in late Saturday into Sunday with a less humid
airmass.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Friday...

Pockets of showers early this morning, mainly east of the Blue Ridge
from CHO-LYH-GSO. Overall best deeper moisture convergence lies east
the forecast area this morning, so will see a lull in activity.

Today, we will see the front that extends from Michigan to the
boothill of MO this morning push east to the Blue Ridge after sunset.

Models are all over the place with convection, but tend to lean
toward higher pops/better lift across the WV mountains into the
Alleghanys this afternoon, and along the Blue Ridge south of Roanoke
to east of the NC mountains. Parameters are sufficient enough for
storms to be scattered across the entire forecast area. SBCAPEs
exceed 1000 J/KG this afternoon, while deep southwest flow ahead of
the upper trough favors more of multicell type storms, but some low
level backing ahead of the front shown by some models are hinting at
potential for isolated supercell. However, overall confidence is
that most storms will be multicell to possibly linear with the front.

There still is a marginal risk for damaging winds, large hail, and
perhaps a tornado, with the best threat along/north of a line from
BKW-LYH or U.S. 60.

The front should clear the area late tonight so expect a falling
trend in pops by late evening, as well as thunderstorm chances.

As for flooding concerns, cannot rule it out if we get some
training, but overall storms should be moving along from southwest-
northeast around 30 mph. Given wet grounds, will still mention
isolated flood threat in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Another humid day especially east of the mountains, with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs should range from the mid 70s
to around 80 across the mountains, to lower to mid 80s east.

Tonight will still be a little on the muggy side until drier air
arrives over the weekend, with lows in the upper 50s west, to mid
60s east.

Forecast confidence average for coverage of storms and severe threat
today into the evening, but higher on temps today/tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EDT Friday...

Surface cold front will cross the forecast area Saturday morning,
then a second drier front on Sunday. Some light morning showers are
possible with Saturday's front, but none with the second front.

Cloud cover will gradually decrease Saturday afternoon. With the
help of the sun, temperatures will warm just above normal for the
day. Cooler air follows the frontal passage Sunday. Temperatures
will range around 5F cooler than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

An upper level ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the
mid section of the country with troughing near both the West/East
coasts. This will promote northwest flow aloft for our region which
will initially start off dry on Monday but then get progressively
wetter as we transition into mid-week as a surface front drops into
the area from the north and stalls. This front is expected to
become the focus for scattered showers and Thunderstorms for Tuesday
through Thursday.

The coolest day of the week is expected to be Monday with highs in
the 60s to lower 70s, then moderate into into the 80s by mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 112 AM EDT Friday...

Patchy low clouds and fog, especially in the piedmont this
morning will bring MVFR or lower conditions at times. Same goes
for the mountains, and even Roanoke, but confidence is low that
Roanoke. Patchy showers are possible near LYH, but most will
stay east of there this morning.

Any low clouds/fog will scour out to VFR after 13z. Scattered
MVFR/IFR showers and thunderstorms will form Friday afternoon,
but latest solutions suggest limited coverage, so going with
VCTS at all sites mainly from 19z-00z.

Forecast confidence is average this morning on cigs/vsbys and
average on threat of storms/coverage this afternoon and impacts
on terminals.


Extended Aviation Discussion...

A cold front crosses the area by Friday evening with VFR mainly
expected as drier air arrives this weekend. At times, fog
and/or low clouds are possible in the early mornings at LWB/BCB.
VFR conditions are anticipated into early next week under high
pressure.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RR/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/WP
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