FXUS61 KRNK 181910
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
310 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019
High pressure builds into the region from the Ohio Valley tonight,
then resides overhead into early Wednesday. A cold front moves into
the Ohio Valley Wednesday night while the high shifts offshore. This
cold front will move over the region Thursday, bringing light rain
to the area.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley will drift southeast over the
region tonight. This system will keep the region cool and dry into
the day Tuesday. Lows tonight will drop into the 20s with winds
becoming light. Daytime temperatures will run around 5F cooler than
normal Tuesday, ranging from the mid to upper 40s west of the Blue
Ridge and lower to mid 50s east. Dew points will also run low
producing relative humidities in the lower 20s.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...
A broad trough anchored across southeast Canada and into the
Great Lakes and New England will be the dominant synoptic
feature for mid-week. A short wave embedded within the trough
is forecast to cross the area Thursday, spinning up an area of
low pressure just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. This trough is
positively tilted, so the flow is progged to remain progressive
with little meaningful precipitation, although would suspect at
least a 24 hour period of varied amounts of cloudiness
beginning as early as Wednesday with some increasing cirrus,
followed by low/mid clouds Wednesday night and Thursday. Attm
model consensus is for QPF of a trace to no more than a few
hundredths of an inch...pops currently advertised under 50
Temperatures are expected to be close to normal with highs in
the 50s and lows in the 30s. This may support a brief mix to the
precip across the High Country of NC and Highlands of VA/NC, but
this appears relatively negligible per the lack of meaningful QPF.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...
Friday into Saturday is looking cool, dry and breezy. Thursday's
coastal cyclone development is expected to deepen as the storm
gains latitude off the New England Coast. What appears to be a
clipper sort of short wave trough is forecast to round the base
of the parent trough on Friday, becoming negatively tilted as
it interacts with the coastal cyclone. This suggests there will
be a healthy pressure rise behind this feature Friday, resulting
breezy conditions, associated with a period of cold air
advection Friday night into early Saturday. Once the pressure
gradient relaxes, the winds should diminish for Saturday night
into Sunday, dry weather persisting through the weekend.
Next threat for meaningful rainfall will be introduced early
next week. Flow pattern next week features developing split
flow with the southern stream becoming active again. This will
open up the Gulf of Mexico for moisture to migrate north during
the Sunday-Tuesday time frame.
Temperatures are forecast to reflect the seasonal
norm...trending 5 to 10 degrees above the norm once the
southerly flow becomes established.
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...
A weak upper disturbance in NW flow aloft is tracking across
the region this afternoon. This northwest flow disturbance
could result in SCT-BKN VFR stratocumulus across the mountains.
Some light rain/sprinkles are possible, but not enough to
detour flight plans. Northwest cross-barrier flow may create
turbulence along the Blue Ridge. Wind gusts on the downslope
side may approach 30 kts. High pressure builds into the region
overnight with skies becoming clear and light to calm winds.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR conditions are expected to remain in place through midweek.
A stronger disturbance will bring the next chance of precipitation
including more widespread areas of sub-VFR conditions late
Thursday into Friday. Dry weather is expected for Saturday.
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