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FXUS63 KSGF 230516
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1116 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

The main forecast concern for tonight and early Wednesday morning
will be the increasing potential for wintry precipitation,
including some accumulation.

Upper level low pressure will track from north-central Kansas
this evening into central Iowa by 12Z Wednesday morning. At the
surface, low pressure will become better defined and track from
eastern Kansas into northern Illinois. As this low passes to our
north, it will drag a strong cold front through the Ozarks.

Ahead of that front, we will continue to see an expanding area of
drizzle and rain along with brisk southerly winds. Temperatures
will then drop sharply behind the front with brisk northwest winds
ensuing. It will only take a few hours for temperatures to drop
below the freezing mark as strong cold air advection commences.

We should therefore see a quick transition behind the surface
front to a wintry mix of light freezing rain, as well as some
sleet and snow. Some minor accumulations of snow and sleet will be
possible. Portions of west-central Missouri may approach an inch
as they will see a longer duration of cloud ice and snow
potential.

The bigger concern is short term models then indicate a
dry slot (and diminishing cloud ice) punching into much of the
area later tonight. Forecast soundings and model cross sections
indicate that the low level moisture depth will be sufficient for
areas of freezing drizzle as periodic slugs of low level upward
omega pass through.

Northwest winds will also locally increase lift north of the spine
of the Ozark Plateau owing to upslope flow. This could enhance
freezing drizzle from the Monett area through the Springfield
metro and on into Webster and Wright Counties.

With temperatures expected to fall through the 20s tonight, we do
expect minor ice accumulations on exposed surfaces. This will
likely include the potential for icy road conditions. With that
being said, we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all but
far south-central Missouri.

The advisory was split into three different start times from west
to east, with all segments going until 12Z. It is possible that
the advisory will need to be expanded into the remainder of
south-central Missouri. An extension may also be needed for
eastern portions of the advisory if freezing drizzle persists
after 12Z.

Once the freezing drizzle ends, the remainder of Wednesday looks
dry. High temperatures should generally range from the upper 20s
across central Missouri to the middle 30s along the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Wednesday night and Thursday then look dry with a secondary cold
front passing through the region on Thursday. This front will
usher in a much colder air mass. Lows Thursday night should fall
well down into the teens with single digits quite possible.

A clipper type system will then pass to our northeast from Friday
into Friday evening. We could see some light snow graze central
Missouri, however the bulk of the snow should fall from eastern
Iowa into northeastern Missouri and central Illinois.

We will then remain in a northwest flow aloft into early next
week. A brief warming trend is expected late this weekend before
global models bring another strong cold front through the area
early next week. There may be some light precipitation that
accompanies the front. While it is still a ways out there, the air
mass behind that front looks even colder with a good cross-polar
flow signal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect IFR conditions through a good portion of the night.

An upper level storm system was approaching the region from the
west, forcing rain, freezing drizzle, and even some sleet across
the region.

Areas of freezing drizzle could persist into the morning hours of
Wednesday. Ceilings and visibilities will be reduced at times.
You can also expect gusty west northwest winds up to 30 mph.

Flight conditions are expected to improve by mid to late morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ057-058-
070-071-081-082-092-096.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ055-056-
066>069-077>080-088>091-093>095-101>104.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ073-097-
101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Cramer
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