FXUS63 KSGF 190855

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
350 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

An area of middle to high clouds, associated with a positively-
tilted upper-level trough over the Dakotas, is progressing into
portions of southeast Kansas and western Missouri and will
continue to overspread the area from west to east this morning. As
such, morning lows will remain mild in the mid 30s to low 40s
across portions of southeast Kansas into western Missouri, while
the eastern Ozarks drop into the low to mid 30s. Radar is showing
a narrow band of light rain across the Kansas City metro area, but
this should stay north of our area for the most-part. However,
some spotty drizzle to very light rain showers may be seen across
central Missouri tonight.

This system will continue to slide southwards across the Central
Plains today, with winds shifting to southerly and becoming breezy
over our area ahead of an approaching surface cold front. Low
relative humidities combined with the breezy winds this afternoon
may result in elevated fire weather conditions for grasses and
brush fuels in areas mainly along and west of the I-49 corridor.
High temperatures will remain in the 50s this afternoon for the
eastern Ozarks, while portions of southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri could reach the low to mid 60s.

We should remain dry until the evening hours, at which time the
cold front will begin pushing into the western portions of our
area. A combination of limited moisture, the quick-moving nature
of this system, and light rain being confined primarily along and
near the front should result in low rainfall accumulations of a
few hundredths to less than a quarter inch by the time the front
exits the area late Wednesday afternoon. The rain and cloud cover
on Wednesday will keep highs lower in the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Pleasant and dry weather returns to the region for Thursday and
Friday as an upper-level ridge moves in from our west and surface
high pressure establishes itself over the region. Ample sunshine
and light winds will produce highs in the upper 50s on Thursday
and low to mid 60s on Friday.

Unsettled weather arrives this weekend as the upper-level pattern
shifts to southwesterly ahead of our next rain-making system. We
will likely see some moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday and Sunday, with a more robust looking system bringing
some lingering showers through the weekend into early next week.
Not expecting any excessive rainfall amounts at the moment, but a
good soaking rain will not be out of the question.

Looks like northwest flow aloft and high pressure return by mid
way through next week, with the promise of Spring-like conditions
continuing for the foreseeable future.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

VFR conditions will continue through early Tuesday evening with
increasing high and mid-level clouds. East winds tonight will veer
to the south and become gusty on Tuesday. Gusts around 20 knots
will be likely during the late morning and afternoon.

An approaching cold front may then bring a few showers into the
Joplin vicinity by 06Z on Tuesday tonight. There will be a low-end
chance for some MVFR with any showers. The better chance for
showers and MVFR will come after 06Z.




SHORT TERM...Rothstein/DSA
LONG TERM...Rothstein/DSA
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