FXUS63 KSGF 050900
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ARE OCCURRING...WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING AROUND THE KC AREA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
A DRY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS HAS SPREAD OVER SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS AHEAD OF THE LOW. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING THIS DRY
AIR WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME. THEREFORE...CLOUD ICE SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS THE MUCH
OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD ICE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES
TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES SOUTH
THIS MORNING...ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD OCCUR FOR DRIZZLE TO
OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK THROUGH THE REMINDER OF
THE MORNING HOURS WILL NO WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM TODAY WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S EACH
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
LIMITED MOISTURE ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS ABLE TO FALL WILL BE
LIGHT WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH
AFTERNOON LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1130 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012/

FOR THE 05/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WERE
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE TAF PERIOD. LOCAL RADAR
SHOWS WEAK RETURNS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN. AN
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF KMCI WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP AND
LOWERING CEILINGS WITH STRATUS BUILD DOWN. HAVE IFR CEILINGS
EITHER OCCURRING OR DEVELOPING AT ALL SITES EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO THE EAST EXPECT IMPROVING
CEILINGS AFTER 16Z-18Z.

DSA


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$






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