FXUS63 KSGF 231654

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1154 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A few showers developed across the area overnight mainly across
the eastern Ozarks, but all in all they have now pushed off to the
south and east of the area early this morning. A rouge shower or
two may be possible this morning.

Upper level ridging will spread a warmer air mass northeast
into the region today as an upper level shortwave and area of
surface low pressure pushes east across the central Plains.
Southerly winds will increase and could be gusty at times. The
southerly winds will also help to pull moisture into the area
resulting in increased cloud cover. Highs today will range from
the upper 50s across central Missouri to the lower 70s across
southeastern Kansas.

A few showers may occur this morning across the area, but rain
chances will start to increase this afternoon into tonight as the
surface low tracks east into the area. The better widespread
rainfall chances will occur across central Missouri to the north,
with showers expected to be more scattered in nature else where.
A few embedded storms will be possible, no severe weather is
expected but small hail will be possible with a few of the
strongest storms. Lows tonight will only drop into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Some lingering showers may remain across the area Saturday but
all in all dry conditions will occur Saturday. Highs will be in
the upper 50s to the upper 60s.

An upper level trough will dig south into the southwestern US
late this weekend into early next week, then slowly track east
towards the region through the middle of next week. This will
result in southwest flow across the region Sunday night into the
middle of next week. Surface low pressure will develop over the
area. The southerly flow will pull moisture into the area. As
lift from energy from the upper level trough spread into the
region rounds of showers and storms will develop and focus on the
front. Generally one to four inches of rainfall will be possible
through the middle of next week, with the heaviest rainfall
expected along and south of the I44 corridor, leading to a risk
for flooding.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

The main aviation concerns for pilots flying in and out of the
area will be gusty southerly winds up to 20 or 25 knots this
afternoon into tonight as well as scattered convection developing
late this evening into the late night along a cold front. VFR
conditions will prevail for the rest of the afternoon but MVFR
ceilings will move in later this evening as well as scattered CB.
Winds will be southerly and gusty shifting to southwesterly and
then westerly by tomorrow morning.




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