FXUS63 KSGF 181113

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
513 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

...12Z Aviation Discussion Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 224 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

Early this morning, skies were clear across the area, though a
large swath of cloud cover was located across the Great Plains.
This cloud cover will begin to overspread the area again this
morning as a shortwave approaches from our northwest. Lows this
morning should bottom out in the mid to upper 20s area-wide around

The previously mentioned shortwave will also have a weak surface
low reflected at the surface that will traverse central Missouri
today into this evening along with it's attendant cold front. The
majority of the precipitation with this system will fall north of
our area, but a few sprinkles or brief light rain are possible
across our central Missouri counties. Little to no measurable
precipitation is expected. Breezy southwesterly winds ahead of the
cold front today will usher warmer air into the area, though cloud
cover will have slight dampening effect across our northeastern
CWA. Highs will range from the mid 40s across central Missouri to
the mid 50s over far southwestern Missouri.

Dry and cloudy conditions are expected tonight, with lows in the
upper 20s to low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

The eastern edge of surface high pressure will build into the
region on Tuesday, though northwesterly winds and lingering cloud
cover will drop high temperatures back to around seasonal values
in the low to mid 40s. Tuesday night lows will fall back into the
mid to upper 20s.

The aforementioned surface high pressure will slide to our south
through Arkansas on Wednesday, shifting surface winds back to
southwesterly as the pressure gradient increases. With dry weather
continuing along with mostly sunny skies, highs will warm back
into the low 50s across most of the area.

During the Thursday into Friday timeframe, a cut off upper level
low off of the coast of Baja California will open up and merge
back into the zonal flow pattern as it pushes across the desert
southwest into the south-central CONUS. Although a few GEFS/ECMWF
ensemble members do hint at some low end chances for precipitation
across the southern portion of our area, the majority of ensemble
members keep us dry with the precipitation shield remaining south
of the area. As such, we have lowered PoPs and foregone any
precipitation mention for Thursday or Friday. Highs on Thursday
will generally be in the low 50s, while winds shifting around to
northerly on Friday will keep highs in the 40s.

Ensemble model guidance and WPC cluster forecasts hint at a
stronger rain signal for late this coming weekend into early next
week as another system pushes across the nation's midsection, with
precipitation chances having increased accordingly relative to
recent model runs. Despite the better chances of seeing more
widespread precipitation during this stretch, ensemble solutions
still have a moderate spread in the evolution of this system
regarding both it's strength and timing. Therefore confidence is
still too low to pinpoint more exact precipitation amounts and
types for late Saturday into Monday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 513 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

Mid level cloud cover is beginning to move back into the area
this morning and will overspread the area throughout the TAF
period. Winds will be southwest, with gusts increasing to 15 to 25
knots late this morning into the afternoon, with the highest
gusts across SE Kansas and western Missouri before weakening this
evening. A weak cold front will move through the TAF sites this
evening, with winds shifting to the northwest and north behind the
front tonight. VFR conditions are expected through most of the
period, though some low level stratus will build into the area
early Tuesday morning. Some MVFR ceilings will be possible with
this stratus at KSGF/KJLN, with a few hours of IFR ceilings
possible at KSGF for a few hours Tuesday morning.




SHORT TERM...Rothstein
LONG TERM...Rothstein
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