FXUS63 KSGF 192341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
641 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Isolated pulse type showers/storms will dissipate quickly this
evening, with quiet weather, albeit warm and humid conditions for
the remainder of the night, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Will be watching convective development over Iowa late tonight,
which models prog to develop into an MCS that will head southeast
Tuesday morning. Model consensus is to have this dive southeast
across eastern Missouri, just skirting our far eastern counties
Tuesday. Will confine probabilities to those areas, Otherwise, it
should be another hot and humid day for much of the area hitting
heat advisory criteria, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat
index values in the 105 to 110 degree range. The only fly in the
ointment would be the aforementioned MCS and resultant impact over
the eastern Ozarks potentially keeping things below heat advisory
criteria. For now will keep heat headlines as is for the entire
area until later shifts have a better handle on track of the MCS.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Quiet weather is expected Tuesday evening, but the ridge begins to
break down later Tuesday night and especially Wednesday. This will
allow a surface front to eventually drop south into the area later
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain warm Wednesday with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s ahead of the front. Most unstable capes of 2000
to 3000 j/kg develop during the day Wednesday, with deep layer shear
increasing late in the afternoon/evening, sufficient for some strong
to severe storms. The front looks to dive into northern Arkansas
Wednesday night and Thursday. How far south it gets is still
uncertain and will eventually lift back northward as a warm front
later in the week. Chances of rain will then continue each day as
the front lifts northward into the weekend. Overall, temperatures
will be closer to seasonal normals Wednesday through Monday, with
highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s to close 70.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

VFR conditions will persist through at least 12z across southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. These pleasant flight
conditions are a product of a 594 mb upper-level ridge axis
overhead. Meanwhile, 850 mb temps have been too warm for any
cumulus field to maintain itself. Thus, expect clear skies
overnight. Also through 12z, surface winds will be variable and
no more than 8 kts.

Clouds will begin to filter in from the north beyond 12z with an
anticipated outflow boundary making its way south from storms
across central Iowa.


MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ066-067-077-078-088-

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
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