FXUS63 KSGF 160453
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1153 PM CDT MON MAR 15 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

JUST WHEN WE THINK THE UPCOMING WEATHER WILL BE INACTIVE FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR...THE LATEST ECMWF SIGNALS TOWARD AN EPISODE OF SNOW AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT ALONG WITH
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WERE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOONS ANALYSIS.

IT WAS A COLD AND CLOUDY DAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO WARM OUT OF THE 40S IN
MOST LOCATIONS...WHILE AREAS OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE 50S. FOR TOMORROW
(TUESDAY)...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TAKE PLACE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAX. THIS FEATURE CAN BE VIEWED ON THE ANIMATED MOISTURE CHANNEL
THIS AFTERNOON UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN MISSOURI TUESDAY
NIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN. WE
ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL...HOWEVER...ALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN
NATURE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. WARMER TEMPERATURES...CLEARING
SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL GATHER STRENGTH AND APPROACH THE
OZARKS BY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LEVELS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE LATEST GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL NOW
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY
PULLING IN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR FOR AN EPISODE OF SNOW. THE ECMWF
HAS A DECENT BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THAT
WOULD EXTEND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS MORE
OF A NORTHERN TRACK...BRINGING THE BAND OF SNOW CLOSER TO THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER FEW
DAYS OF MEAN RIDGING FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

CRAMER


&&

.AVIATION...

CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR AT KSGF AND KBBG TERMINALS AT THIS
HOUR...WHILE GOING TO VFR AT JOPLIN. STILL BELIEVE THAT THERE IS
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW CEILINGS TO BUILD BACK
DOWN AND ALSO ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...HAVE BACKED OFF ON TIMING BY A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL SEE CEILINGS FALL INTO IFR CATEGORIES AT
KSGF AND KBBG AND LOW MVFR AT KJLN.

CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY.

GAEDE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$




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