FXUS63 KSGF 200415
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1115 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017
...06z Aviation Forecast Update...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Nice weather for outdoor activities were observed today over
extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. High pressure
aloft brought sunny skies while southerly breezes kicked in.
Temperatures this afternoon were approaching 80 as moisture was
returning from the Gulf.
For tonight, look for temperatures to fall into the low 50s.
Surface high pressure has shifted east, causing southerly breezes
to keep the atmosphere mixed.
Friday and Saturday will be similar with a little more humidity.
Moisture will continue to prime the Ozarks airmass, however, no
precipitation is expected through Friday night and early Saturday.
Highs in the upper 70s are expected the next two days.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday evening and night are
becoming more likely over extreme southeast Kansas and portions of
western Missouri. A storm system will trigger this activity along
a cold front across Kansas and Oklahoma, reaching our western
counties around sunset.
NAM 12 has mixed layer capes progged at 1500 to 2000 j/kg within
a highly sheared airmass. NAM 12 also has low level cape values
reaching 50 to 75 j/kg, suggesting the potential for low level
stretching under meso-vorts. We do think the risk for squall line
tornadoes exists, as 0-3 km shear vectors run 35 knots or better.
Watch for any segments that become aligned northwest to southeast
within this environment.
Damaging wind gusts will also be a concern with some of the more
intense storms. Large hail can not be ruled out, although it's not
the best environment for hail.
Storms Saturday night should weaken as they progress east through
the night. By the time storms move east of Springfield, little to
no severe weather is expected as instability really drops off.
Some rain could linger into Sunday over south central Missouri,
although most locations will be dry Sunday. Cooler temperatures
are expected with highs in the upper 60s to near 70.
Dry and mild weather is expected Monday through Wednesday of next
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017
VFR will continue for all TAF sites and across the Missouri Ozarks
region during the next 24 hours. Winds will be southerly around 10
knots or less. Gusty winds up to 20 to 25 knots may return by
late Friday morning through Friday afternoon.
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