FXUS63 KSGF 172346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
546 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

...Update to Aviation Discussion for 00Z TAFs...

Issued at 217 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Temperatures were actually above average across the area this
afternoon with most places in the lower to middle 60s with
filtered sunshine. A cold front was slowly moving south into the
area and was generally along the US Highway 54 corridor. Much
colder air with temps in the 30s resided across Northern Missouri.
Shortwave energy was moving southeast across Wyoming and will be a
focus for lift across the area tonight into Sunday.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

The cold front will continue to move through the remainder of the
area this evening. Currently have some dry air in the low and mid
levels of the atmosphere so we dont expect any precipitation
through about midnight. After midnight, should start to see some
light precip, likely in the form of drizzle given the lack of
cloud ice across eastern Kansas into central missouri. The NAM is
more bullish with this precip than the RAP and other models.

Surface wind trajectories will be generally out of the northeast,
therefore while cold air will be coming in, not expecting any
freezing temperatures until 09z or after across eastern kansas and
west central missouri. Models have trended warmer with overnight
lows versus previous forecasts, therefore overnight lows were
increased with this forecast. The RAP would indicate temps even
warmer than this latest forecast, however for now we hedged
upward slightly. The freezing line looks to drop to a Pittsburg,
KS to Versailles, MO line by 12z Sunday morning. Therefore may see
some precip briefly change over to freezing drizzle. Models have
periods of no cloud ice and then some hours of saturation, however
for now have gone with freezing drizzle. If cloud ice does indeed
exist, then there could briefly be some sleet since the 850mb
front with colder temps looks to lag into Kansas. Currently not
looking at any accumulation or impacts. With temperatures reaching
the 50s and 60s today, ground and road temps are warm and even
with sfc temps reaching freezing, impacts are not likely to occur.

An area of showers will likely move northeast out of Arkansas
during the morning hours across the rest of the area and last into
the afternoon hours. Temperatures will likely hold into the middle
to upper 30s all day Sunday therefore it will be a cold/rainy
Sunday. All precip looks to stay liquid during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Northwest mid level flow persists Monday through Wednesday with
temps below average but it will be dry. Mid level heights rise
nicely for Thanksgiving Day with temps reaching the upper 50s to
around 60 with dry conditions. Models agree that a shortwave will
approach from the west late Friday with rain chances returning.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Surface winds of 05-10 kts will gradually veer from southwest to
north this evening in response to a passing cold front. Ceilings
will begin to lower as well, with IFR conditions expected at the
SGF & JLN terminals by about 06Z, and the BBG terminal by 12Z.
Some drizzle or light rain is also expected by early Sunday
morning, with temperatures holding just above freezing.




SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
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