FXUS63 KSGF 192251

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
551 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

A hot and humid air mass is in place across southeastern Kansas
and western Missouri this afternoon. Temperatures across these
locations are currently in the middle to upper 90s with heat index
values in the 100 to around 105 range. Temperatures across the
eastern Ozarks are cooler as cloud cover from convection is in
place. Heat index values along and west of Highway 65 will
continue to top out from around 103 to 108 degrees this afternoon
into early this evening. Will continue the Heat Advisory as is
through 9 PM this evening.

An upper level shortwave trough is currently pushing southeast out
of the Northern Plains this afternoon. Deep layer shear has
increased some across the area ahead of the trough. Given the warm
and humid conditions, instability has also increased across the
area. As result there will be the potential for strong to severe
storms this afternoon and evening with any storm. Storms have
developed across northeastern Kansas into west central Missouri
this afternoon. This activity will spread to the south and east
into this evening. Large hail to the size of golf balls and
damaging straight line winds up to around 70 mph will be the
primary hazards with this activity. These storms will track across
portions of the northern forecast area, but there are questions
on just how far south and west these storms will be able to track.
Frequent lightning and heavy rainfall will also occur with the
storms. A localized flooding risk will also occur with this

A few storms will likely linger overnight into Friday. Friday
evening and night shortwave energy will track through the area and
could trigger a few storms. There will be the risk for a few
strong to severe storms Friday evening and night.

Highs on Friday will again warm into the lower to upper 90s with
the hottest conditions occurring across southeastern Kansas and
far southern Missouri. Heat index values of 100 to 105 are
expected during the afternoon and early evening hours Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

An upper level low trough will deepen into a low and slowly
spread southeast across the eastern U.S. this weekend into early
next week. A drier air mass will spread into the area this weekend
with no rain expected this weekend into early next week. Highs
will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s this weekend into
next week as the upper level ridge remains west of the region.

An upper level shortwave will move through the region during the
middle of next week and bring additional rain chances to the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Line segment was from Caplinger Mills to near Jasper MO as of
22:50Z pushing southeast and will potentially impact SGF by
2330-0000z. It should remain northeast of JLN and not expecting it
to affect BBG at this time. While additional isolated/widely
scattered convection possible later in the evening, this should be
the main thunderstorm risk over the next couple hours. Will see
some MVFR possible IFR briefly as this segment moves through SGF,
with VFR through the remainder of the period.


MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-066>068-

KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.



Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page