FXUS63 KSGF 252317

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
617 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tonight)

We are currently watching the environment over southeast Kansas
and western Missouri. Short term models are suggesting the
development of a few organized thunderstorms that will be capable
of producing marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts.

Mixed layer capes in this area ahead of the front has increased up
to 1500 j/kg. Meanwhile, effective deep layer shear is expected to
increase from 35 to 40 knots. This cape shear combination will
likely yield a handful of organized storms.

A southwest component to the surface winds should eliminate the
risk for tornadoes this evening.

The window of opportunity looks to be from around 5pm to 9:30pm.

Look for overnight lows to fall into the 50s behind the cold
front. Most locations should receive measurable rainfall, however,
not all locations will get rain. Amounts should be around one half
of an inch or less.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)

Rain tonight should end by Wednesday morning, setting the stage
for an extended period of dry weather. Slight northwest to zonal
flow will keep moisture at bay, while creating very comfortable
temperatures for the Ozarks. Highs Wednesday will be suppressed
into the 60s, while highs in the 70s are expected on an afternoon
basis from Thursday through Sunday.

Moisture starts to increase early next work week as deep southerly
flow commences and ridging takes place. We should also experience
a warming trend with temperatures back in the 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

A cold front will approach the area tonight switching winds to the
north with some gusts over 25kts likely overnight. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front as well,
however the thunder chances are isolated and have gone with VCTS
and SGF and JLN for now. Some brief MVFR conditions are possible
at BBG and SGF overnight as well before mixing out tomorrow




LONG TERM...Cramer
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