FXUS64 KSHV 270852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
352 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Monday/

At 0830z, isolated convection was still slowly moving south over
portions of Western Louisiana, just east of Interstate 49.
However, radar loops over the last couple of hours have shown a
gradual weakening trend. Combined with storm motion, this activity
should either dissipate or move south and out of the CWA by 12z
this morning. More isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection
is likely during the day today. The highest rain chances today and
Monday will remain over Louisiana and Southern Arkansas in
association with the easterly flow around a mid-level trough in
the Gulf of Mexico and Subtropical Storm Alberto in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Convection storm motion will generally be
southwesterly or south. Westward extent of PoPs will be dependent
on what feature wins out: subsidence from an upper ridge axis
over the Central CONUS or the moisture wrapping around the west
side of the Gulf trough.

Given the temperatures recorded yesterday, without widespread
convection, there should be little reason why daytime temperatures
will not be just as warm today. The forecast for today is several
degrees warmer than the majority of the model guidance. Most of
the guidance did not even meet yesterday's values. Daytime highs
on Monday should be a degree of two warmer than today given the
lack of rainfall combined with the additions of subsidence and
compressional warming west of the landfalling Alberto.

Heat index values will likely be over 100 degrees F for many
locations today, especially in East Texas. However, we should
remain below Heat Advisory criteria through Monday.


.LONG TERM.../Monday night through Saturday/

The main weather story for the extended will continue to be with the
unseasonably hot conditions prevailing, as high pressure remains
entrenched over the region. The models continue to hint at a few
showers and thunderstorms from Alberto's outer rainbands possibly
making it into north central Louisiana on Tuesday, and they are
also showing the potential an MCS to move across southern Oklahoma
and Arkansas on Wednesday. Otherwise, we are looking at dry
conditions prevailing as well. Daytime temperatures will likely
remain in the mid 90s through Wednesday, but warm into the upper
90s for the latter part of the work week and weekend. Heat indices
will be no doubt be above 100 degrees these days as well. Our
overnight temperatures will remain warm as well, with temperatures
only falling into the mid 70s for most locations. Needless to
say, it will be hot, with no relief in site for the near future.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1200 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

For the 27/06Z terminal forecast will prevail VFR flight
categories for sites across the Four State Region with MVFR
conditions returning between 27/08Z-27/12Z with visibility
restrictions and lower ceilings between 1-3 KFT. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue to spread to the Southwest
affecting parts of N Louisiana and Deep E Texas during the
overnight and with a break in the mid morning to early afternoon
Sunday before returning for the same general areas during the
middle to late afternoon. VFR returning after 27/13Z-27/15Z Sunday.
Light and variable surface winds through most of the forecast
period with some increase speeds in the afternoon Sunday.


SHV 95 72 94 72 / 20 10 20 0
MLU 90 72 91 70 / 30 10 30 20
DEQ 95 69 95 68 / 10 10 10 0
TXK 93 71 93 70 / 20 10 10 0
ELD 92 72 92 69 / 20 10 20 0
TYR 95 71 95 72 / 20 10 10 0
GGG 95 71 95 71 / 20 10 10 0
LFK 94 72 94 72 / 30 10 10 0




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