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FXUS64 KSHV 161350
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
850 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Quick update to forecast to better align precipitation chances
with ongoing convection. Products to come shortly. /35/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 711 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

AVIATION...

For the ArkLaTex, an MCV over NE TX is movg E at 25KT with a good
cool pool pushing. Thunderstorms will continue in NE TX with
moisture overrunning the cool pool of 60s compared to muggy 70s
elsewhere. We can expect new development to occur ahead of the
outflow this late morning and all afternoon with heating. In
addition, a weak upper disturbance over OK/AR this next couple of
day will keep us under the convective gun with more rounds of TS
day and night through Monday with slow improvement. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Sunday through Monday/

Fair and mild for most of us with a range of 70s still edging
downward toward the overnight lows. Meanwhile, rain cooled mid to
upper 60 degree air is spilling into our cwa along a gust front
of 30-50 mph winds stretching from Mineola to Mount Pleasant and
nearing DeQueen.

The reflectivity loop shows much weakening over the last hour
along the leading edge and most concentrating in N TX over the
cool pool. The HRRR shows the boundary remaining active and
progressive with QPF the whole way and really lighting up again
by midday with new heating. The SPC has a marginal area wide for
us with Slight risk over NE TX in the new day one. The WPC days
1-2 totals are still a good 1-3 inches with some higher amounts.

The main mid level upper low at 579dm is over the TX/OK
panhandles and is moving East. It will redevelop round after round
of nocturnal convection and diurnal interactions amounting to a
wet pattern to start the new work week. Temps will be cooler, but
still muggy and no cold front this time to bring an end quickly.
/24/

LONG TERM.../Monday Night through Saturday Night/

Convection associated with the 2nd shortwave trough to affect the
region during the next 48 hrs is expected to gradually diminish
Monday night with diminished instability, with the primary trough
axis expected to shift E of the MS River shortly after 06Z Tuesday.
However, ripples in the NW flow aloft behind the departing shortwave
and any residual bndrys from the leftover convection may still yield
isolated to sct convection late Monday night, and thus have
maintained likely/high chance pops across much of SW AR/N LA Monday
evening closer to the primary trough axis, and mid to low chance
pops elsewhere across E TX/SE OK. A potentially dirty NW flow aloft
looks to continue through Tuesday over much of the region, with the
ECMWF more bullish with sct convection developing over NE TX/SW AR/N
LA than the drier GFS, given the fact that the aforementioned
mesoscale bndrys and diurnal heating should again play a role in
convective development. Given its consistency with earlier runs,
have maintained mid chance pops over all but Lower E TX which should
be a bit removed from the dirtier flow aloft, before the flow begins
to flatten out Tuesday night.

However, the next potential weak shortwave perturbation is progged
to traverse SE OK/SW AR Tuesday night, which again may focus sct
convection generally along and N of the Hwy 82 corridor of NE TX/SW
AR, which mid chance pops remain for those areas. Have tapered pops
to low chance/slight chance farther S closer to the I-20 corridor of
E TX/N LA through Wednesday, before the next shortwave develops
within the flow over OK into the Middle Red River Valley Wednesday
evening. Reasonable agreement exists this morning between the GFS
and ECMWF with a 30-40+ kt SWrly LLJ feeding into this next
shortwave trough Wednesday night, with large scale forcing resulting
in another potential MCS over SE OK/SW AR, with the GFS more bullish
in progressing this convection SE into portions of N LA. Not quite
enough confidence yet to go with likely pops this far out, and thus
have maintained high chance pops for extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
Wednesday night, with mid chance pops farther S closer to the I-20
corridor of E TX/N LA. This complex should quickly shift ESE of the
region by midday Thursday with the departure of the trough, but
isolated to sct convection may linger the trough passage over
portions of Scntrl AR/Ncntrl LA Thursday afternoon with available
heating before ending.

Afterwards, the medium range progs continue to suggest ridging aloft
will build N from Cntrl/E TX N through the Ozarks and Mid-South
region Friday and Saturday, with the ridge shifting a bit farther E
into the SE CONUS for the latter half of next weekend. Despite the
weak ridging in place, isolated convection will still be possible
with a weak seabreeze over the SE zones Friday, and through next
weekend, especially as the ridge begins to drift slowly E. Max temps
should also respond back to slightly above normal readings by the
end of the extended period as well. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 89 72 86 72 / 70 50 70 50
MLU 90 71 88 72 / 60 50 70 50
DEQ 84 68 82 69 / 60 70 70 40
TXK 85 69 81 71 / 70 50 70 50
ELD 87 69 84 70 / 70 60 70 60
TYR 86 72 87 73 / 70 50 70 40
GGG 87 71 85 73 / 70 50 70 40
LFK 89 73 87 73 / 60 20 70 30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
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