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FXUS64 KSHV 290819
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
319 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Saturday/

The early morning sfc analysis indicates a weak sfc trough
extending from just W of MEM, SW to near LLQ, to RSN and LFK line,
with the 00Z progs in good agreement with this feature shifting SE
out of the area by mid-morning as sfc ridging begins to build S
into the Lower MS Valley. The progs do suggest that some stratocu
will develop with the onset of diurnal heating this morning, but
should eventually give way to a cu field during the afternoon
especially over SW AR/N LA/E TX. Strong insolation should yield
for warmer temps today even behind the weak sfc trough passage,
and thus have trended near if now a touch above the NBM guidance
for max temps, with readings generally in the mid 80s. The morning
water vapor imagery does depict longwave troughing diving SE from
the Great Lakes Region S across the Midwest and into Cntrl TX,
with this trough expected to continue sliding SE into the Lower MS
Valley as the weak upper low (now over Wrn TN) that plagued our
region with such a wet/stormy week lifts NE and becomes absorbed
in the trough. The proximity of this trough, residual low level
moisture in place, and diurnal heating may yield isolated
convection this afternoon over portions of Ncntrl LA/Deep E TX,
and thus have retained slight chance pops mention for these areas
before diminishing by sunset, if not sooner.

NW flow aloft will become established over the region this
afternoon and evening in wake of the upper trough's departure,
with large scale ridging aloft noted this morning from the Desert
SW NNE into the Rockies and the Srn Canadian provinces expected to
gradually build E into the Srn Plains Saturday. Thus, the
beginning of a prolonged period of dry and tranquil weather this
weekend through much of next week is expected, with afternoon
temps near normal in the mid to upper 80s. Fortunately, sfc
ridging will remain anchored from the MS Valley SW into Cntrl TX
this weekend through early next week, maintaining slightly cooler
overnight temps and tolerable daytime RH's.

15

&&

.LONG TERM.../Saturday Night through Thursday Night/

A benign weather period will persist during the long-term forecast
as an upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to build
eastward from the Four-Corners Region across the Southern Plains.
With the upper ridge becoming the dominant weather feature, look for
a gradual increase in temperatures throughout next week as highs
will range from the mid to upper 80s late in the weekend and early
next week. Then, by mid to late week, high temperatures will creep
even higher into the lower 90s over the vast majority of the region
as conditions trend more summerlike as the calendar flips from May
to June. In addition, overnight temperatures will also be nudging
higher into the lower 70s by mid to late next week across much of
the area as the air mass becomes rather stagnant.

Model progs do continue to indicate that we may see some diurnally
driven seabreeze convection by mid to late next week, but confidence
remains too low to introduce any PoPs at this time. Looking just
beyond the end of this forecast period, medium range guidance does
also continue to hint at some possible tropical development entering
the Gulf by the end of next week. Forecast confidence related to the
tropics this far out is always very low, but this will warrant close
attention if these trends continue.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1243 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions should continue through much of the overnight hours,
with areas of cu and cirrus expected to linger. Some patchy FG will be
possible overnight in areas that received rain earlier Thursday, but
some IFR/low MVFR cigs may develop by/shortly after 12Z this morning
across the region, before gradually lifting/scattering out by mid-
morning. Cu cigs are expected to develop by midday and linger through
the afternoon though across Scntrl AR/much of N LA, with a sct cu
field expected across extreme SW AR/E TX. This cu should diminish
by/shortly after 00Z Saturday, with SKC expected through the remainder
of the evening/overnight hours. Lt/Vrb or light NW winds tonight will
become N and increase to 7-11kts after 15Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 63 85 61 / 5 0 0 0
MLU 85 63 85 61 / 20 0 0 0
DEQ 84 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 83 60 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 84 59 84 59 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 85 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 85 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 86 63 87 63 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15/19
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