FXUS64 KSHV 240918

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
418 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

A cold front continues to progress southeast across the area this
morning and should exit the CWA by late this morning. A tight
surface pressure gradient in the wake of the front will result in
gusty northwest winds areawide today. Sustained wind speeds near
20 kts with gusts near 30 kts are likely. Therefore, no changes
were made to the Lake Wind Advisory for today. The northwest winds
will enhance the advection of a cold and dry airmass into the
region. Winds speeds should diminish somewhat after sunset, but
sustained speeds will likely remain between 5 and 10 kts. However,
clear skies and dry air should still allow for good radiational
cooling. Low temperatures tonight and into Wednesday morning will
fall below 45 degrees F areawide. Temperatures may actually fall
into the upper 30s across much of Southeast Oklahoma and Southern
Arkansas. Wednesday will likely remain cooler than normal with
winds being much lighter than today. The return of southerly
surface winds Wednesday evening will result in a quick warming
trend, and temperatures should rebound into the upper 70s during
the day Thursday.

By Thursday evening, a broad upper trough diving southeast out of
Southern Canada and into the upper Midwest will help to push the
next cold front into the region. Showers and a few thunderstorms
are expected to develop along and behind the front during the day
Friday. The front should move east of the area by late afternoon,
but the upper trough axis will still be farther to the northwest.
Therefore, a large band of rain is expected to develop along the
850 mb frontal boundary. The greatest large scale forcing is
expected to arrive late Friday morning after the front has already
moved halfway across the area. Therefore, the best chances for
rain and highest rain amounts should be across the eastern half of
the area in Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana. Storm total
rainfall amounts should be under one inch. The rain should
gradually end Friday evening or very early Saturday morning, and
dry weather should then prevail through the remainder of the
extended periods.

Strong cold air advection should allow temperatures to plummet
Friday night/Saturday morning where skies clear. Temperatures on
Saturday morning should fall into the 30s areawide. In fact, there
is a good chance that portions of Southeast Oklahoma and
Southwest Arkansas may experience their first freeze of this
season Saturday or Sunday morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1152 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

For the 24/06Z terminal forecast period will be prevailing VFR
flight categories for all the forecast sites. A band of middle
clouds around 10 kft and high clouds near 25 kft will be spreading
South across the region through the overnight hours into the
middle morning hours. Our next cold front will be moving through
overnight with high pressure bridging into the region returning
the West and Northwest winds now in place of generally 5-12 knots,
to an increasing or tightening pressure gradient, producing
strong and gusty Northwest winds of 15-25 knots with higher gusts
of 30-35 knots after 24/14Z through the late afternoon on Tuesday.
The surface winds will be decreasing to 3-8 knots after 25/00Z.


SHV 72 43 70 49 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 72 42 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 68 37 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 68 41 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 69 38 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 70 43 72 49 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 71 41 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 73 43 71 47 / 0 0 0 0


AR...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for

LA...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for

OK...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for

TX...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for



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