FXUS64 KSHV 050327 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
927 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK S INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS
EVENING...AHEAD OF A STRONG SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER WRN KS. THIS RIDGE
WILL SHIFT SE INTO MO/OK/NW TX BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY RELAXING FROM N TO S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE MID SOUTH. HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE MIN
TEMPS...GIVEN ONGOING WINDS/MIXING...AND INCREASING CIRROFORM CLOUDS
FROM THE W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES OUR NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH PROGS GRADUALLY THICKENING CIRRUS OVERNIGHT AS THEY
SPREAD E INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...CIRRUS REMAINS THIN ENOUGH
ATTM...WHILE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED COMPLETELY IN SOME OF THE MORE
PROTECTED LOCATIONS /DEQ/ELD/DTN/...SUCH THAT TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE A
STEADY FALL OVERNIGHT...BEFORE CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH TO SLOW/HALT THE
FALLING TEMPS.

DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT FOR MIN TEMPS...MAINLY TO
LOWER THEM SLIGHTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SW AR/NCNTRL LA. ALSO
BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY TO REFLECT THE THICKENING
CIRRUS CANOPY. BUT OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A FREEZE AREAWIDE
TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 DEGREES FRIDAY.

UPDATED ZONES ARE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH A
DESCENT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE OK/TX PHNDL REGION BY
SUNRISE BEFORE MOVING INTO N CENTRAL TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR N TO NE WINDS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 24HR PERIOD. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WHICH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...THIN CIRRUS IS ENCROACHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST BUT WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE OPAQUE DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 31 49 30 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 10
MLU 29 48 27 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 10
DEQ 24 47 25 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 10
TXK 28 47 31 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 10
ELD 26 46 26 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 10
TYR 30 51 32 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 10
GGG 29 50 29 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 10
LFK 31 53 30 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/13


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