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FXUS64 KSHV 202237
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
537 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.AVIATION...

Have included VCTS through 03z for the TYR/GGG/LFK terminals and
may need to include it at the TXK terminal as well based on
current radar trends. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail
through much of, if not all of the overnight hours. Cross sections
support enough boundary layer moisture return in the 11-16z
timeframe on Friday for MVFR ceilings but they should lift by late
morning. Have reintroduced VCTS at all terminals during the
afternoon on Friday with the exception of the ELD/MLU terminals.

Look for southeast winds less than 10kts overnight and S to SE
winds at or near 10kts during the daytime hours on Friday outside
of afternoon convection.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday Night/

A few isolated showers/t-storms have developed across the region
this afternoon, but coverage is not as widespread as originally
expected. Coverage could increase a little over the next couple of
hours, but most activity should diminish after sunset. Another
round of showers/t-storms will be possible Friday as the
aforementioned upper ridge continues to shift east of the region.
This will allow for some deep layer gulf moisture to move into the
region as southerly flow increases. At the same time, a cool
front will move towards the region and become stationary just
north of the Interstate 30 corridor. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop along and ahead of the front, bringing some much
needed rain to the region through the weekend. Rain may begin to
get heavy at times, especially across areas north of Interstate
30 near the front on Friday evening through Saturday morning.
Flash flooding could be a threat in these areas, as rainfall
amounts could approach 2-3 inches, and a watch maybe needed. Low
temperatures tonight will fall into the low to mid 70s, with highs
temperatures noticeably cooler Friday as we top out in the upper
80s to low 90s. /20/

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday Night/

Main concern will be ongoing heavy rain threat across the I-30
corridor on Saturday. Frontal boundary across northeast Texas into
Arkansas will gradually drift south and serve as the focus for
convection on Saturday. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is
possible across southeast Oklahoma and portions of extreme northeast
Texas. Main threat will be in the morning with conditions improving
during the day as low-level flow becomes southwest and moisture flow
across the front becomes less conducive to maintain heavy rain
threat.

With front stalling and bisecting the region from Sunday through
Tuesday night, enhanced rain chances will persist through the long
term period. A strong cold front will push through the region on
Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing a final period of heavy rain
before high pressure rebuilds and brings cooler temperatures to the
region.

Otherwise, temperatures from Saturday through Wednesday to range
from highs in the 80s to lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 74 89 74 85 / 20 60 40 70
MLU 73 92 73 90 / 20 40 30 60
DEQ 71 86 71 78 / 20 60 80 80
TXK 73 88 72 79 / 20 60 70 70
ELD 73 90 72 83 / 20 50 50 70
TYR 74 88 73 81 / 20 60 60 80
GGG 74 89 73 83 / 20 60 50 70
LFK 75 88 74 86 / 20 60 40 70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/20/13
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