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FXUS64 KSHV 182033
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
333 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/

Nwly flow aloft to continue through the short term pd, while sfc
high pressure drifts ewd. Similar temps expected for Tuesday,
perhaps even slightly cooler across our far ern sections as the
sfc ridge dips swd a bit. Sfc low to develop across the Southern
Plains Tuesday, bringing light sly flow back to the wrn half of
our region. Temps just slightly warmer over the w and cooler over
the e Tuesday night, but overall very little changes ongoing this
pd. /12/

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/

Late Tuesday evening, a surface low and associated cold front
will develop across the northern plains, and move towards the
southern Mississippi Valley region along the flow. A few showers,
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm could develop along the cold
front as it moves across the region during the day on Wednesday.
The best chance for precipitation will be across extreme southeast
Oklahoma, adjacent southwest Arkansas, and extreme northern
Louisiana, but can't rule out a shower or so across the remainder
of the region.

Behind the front, high pressure builds in across the region,
allowing for a reinforcing shot of cool and dry conditions for
Thursday through late Friday evening. Temperatures will remain near
normal as well, with highs in the upper 60s and low temperatures in
the low to mid 40s. Southerly winds along with southwesterly flow
aloft will return areawide on Friday as the high moves east of the
region. At the same time, another upper trough will dig across the
Great Basin region into the Four Corners region before ejecting out
into the western portions of the Great Plains. A sfc low and
associated cold front will develop across northern Colorado/Wyoming
and begin to move towards the region. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop ahead of this system across western portions of
Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas and slowly move east towards our region.
Current thinking is that we will remain dry on Friday, but
precipitation will increase in coverage from the west across our
region sometime on Saturday. There are some timing discrepancies
with this system in the long range models as the GFS holds back
precipitation until late Saturday evening, but the Canadian and
ECMWF bring in precipitation early Saturday morning. However, all
seem to be in agreement that the cold front won't clear the region
until late Monday/early Tuesday morning. This means that rainy
conditions can be expected for at least late Saturday through late
Monday.

A slight warming trend expected for the upcoming weekend through the
early portions of next week, with highs in the lower 70s and lows in
the mid 50s. However, with cloud cover and rainfall in the region,
high temperatures could be modified a bit. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1236 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 18Z TAF pd. Light/vrbl
winds to continue through the overnight hours, but become sely
at 5-10 kts after sunrise Tuesday. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 44 69 45 68 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 43 65 40 68 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 41 67 43 65 / 0 0 0 20
TXK 42 65 45 65 / 0 0 0 20
ELD 42 65 41 67 / 0 0 0 20
TYR 44 69 46 67 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 44 69 46 67 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 45 69 46 70 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/20
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