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FXUS64 KSJT 200448
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

MVFR ceilings expected to move in overnight, but have taken a
little longer than first anticipated. Have updated TAFs to delay
onset of low clouds by a couple hours. May see IFR ceilings
develop across the far south toward morning, and a few light rain
showers are possible, as well, as the low level jet strengthens
overnight. Clouds will be slow to lift in the morning, but expect
winds to pick up in the 15 to 20 kt range by mid morning.

08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expecting MVFR ceilings to develop after midnight across the area,
with possible IFR conditions for SOA and the Interstate 10
corridor. Radar was picking up some virga this evening, but
precipitation has dissipated for the most part and should not
affect TAF locations. Showers will possibly redevelop toward
morning as low level jet continues to bring moisture into the area.
Included VCSH mention in TAFS toward morning. Expect low clouds
to linger through the morning, with some improvement in ceiling
heights for the afternoon. Winds should stay gusty during the day
in the 15 to 20 kt range.

08

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

As one upper level shortwave moves northeast of the area,
additional shortwave energy will approach from the west. This will
combine with increasing moisture and a 30 to 40 knot LLJ and give
the area a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. Expect
most of the activity to be light and showery, but can't rule out a
few thunderstorms. With increasing moisture and more general
cloud cover tonight, temperatures will be warmer, with lows only
getting into the low to mid 60s for most of the area.

On Friday, the last of the shortwave energy is expected to move
across from late morning into early afternoon, resulting in a
continued chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of a
Sweetwater to Junction line. Expect most of this activity to move
east of the area by mid afternoon, but will keep chances going
through the afternoon hours, in case timing is off on the speed of
the wave. High temperatures will be similar to today ranging from
the mid 70s to lower 80s with some areas potentially seeing
mostly cloudy skies for much of the day slowing warming quite a
bit.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Sunday)

There will be a chance of thunderstorms along with warmer
temperatures, especially Saturday. The weather will become more
active Saturday night as a cool front moves south across West
Central Texas an encounters some instability and moisture(PW
values around 1.25 to 1.5 inches). Also, there will be some upper
level support as a trough moves by. Expect scattered
thunderstorms across the area, with likely Pops across the eastern
1/3 of the area. A few strong to severe storms are possible
Saturday evening mainly across the eastern 2/3 of the Big Country
as vertical wind shear becomes more favorable(0-6KM 35-40 knots).
The main threats will be damaging winds, large hail, and dangerous
lightning. The convection will be mainly east of the area by
Sunday morning and mainly going with a dry forecast for Sunday.
The warmest day will be Saturday, with highs in the mid to upper
80s, then cooler Sunday with highs in the 70s.

(Sunday Night through Thursday)

Going with a dry forecast for much of next week as upper level
northwest flow dominates. Another cool front will move through
Tuesday, with gusty northeast winds behind it. Highs will be in the
70s, lower 80s on Monday. Lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 64 80 66 86 / 20 20 10 20
San Angelo 63 81 64 87 / 20 20 10 10
Junction 63 81 65 84 / 20 20 20 10
Brownwood 63 80 65 85 / 20 30 20 20
Sweetwater 62 80 65 85 / 20 20 10 10
Ozona 63 78 63 84 / 20 20 10 5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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