FXUS64 KSJT 240000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

/00Z TAFS/

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger
across the area through mid evening before dissipating. Will keep
a TEMPO group going for most of the terminals through 02Z, otherwise
no precipitation is expected overnight. VFR conditions will prevail,
other than some brief reductions to visibility in thunderstorms.
Isolated to scattered convection will be possible again Saturday
afternoon and evening, although coverage uncertainties will preclude
mentioning at this time. Expect light winds through the period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019/

(Tonight and Saturday)

..Possible Rain...

Based on the latest radar data, some locations will receive rain
this afternoon. The short term models indicate this activity may
continue until around midnight tonight. Then, these same models
indicate showers and thunderstorms may again develop, during the
afternoon, Saturday.

(Saturday Night through Friday)

..Heat and Possible Rain...

The long term forecast continues to include the potential for
rain and the possibility for triple digit afternoon highs Sunday
and especially Monday. The GFS indicates the 850mb thermal ridge
will significantly expand over West Central Texas Sunday
afternoon, as well as Monday afternoon. Add this to high afternoon
relative humidity, and West Central Texas may have heat indices
in the 105 to 110 range these 2 afternoons. Thus, some locations
may need a Heat Advisory one or both of these afternoons. The GFS
and to a lesser degree the ECMWF bring a cold front south of the
Red River by Tuesday. Nevertheless, confidence on exactly how far
south this boundary will extend is not very high. So, the
forecast, for now, has surface winds from mainly the south, from
Tuesday through the end of the week. But, if convection pushes the
front farther south, West Central Texas may see additional rain
and cooler temperatures.


Abilene 73 95 75 102 / 20 30 10 10
San Angelo 74 97 72 104 / 20 30 10 10
Junction 74 96 72 100 / 30 30 10 10
Brownwood 74 95 72 101 / 30 30 10 10
Sweetwater 74 95 74 102 / 20 30 10 10
Ozona 72 93 71 101 / 20 30 10 10




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