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FXUS64 KSJT 181015
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
415 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Stratus have developed across Interstate 10 corridor early this
morning and is forecast to spread to at least the southern two
thirds of West Central Texas. In addition, areas of fog are
developing across portions of the area. Areas of dense fog will be
possible and Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for a large
portion of the region until 9 AM. Cloud cover and fog are slowly
expected to erode by mid to late morning, with most locations
seeing partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area may see cloud cover linger into the
afternoon hours. Exactly how fast cloud cover erodes will be a
factor in how warm temperatures get this afternoon. For now,
leaned closer to the GFS for highs this afternoon, with most
locations topping out in the low to mid 60s. If cloud cover
lingers into the afternoon hours, these temperatures may need to
be adjusted down, closer to what the NAM is forecasting.

An upper level low across northern Mexico and the Desert
Southwest will track west toward the forecast area tonight. Large
scale lift will result in the development of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chance across the southern half of
the area. In addition, areas of fog may develop during the early
morning hour and this is reflected in the forecast. Overnight lows
will be well above seasonal normals, in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Daniels

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Will continue the strong likelihood of precipitation into Tuesday
morning, along with some areas of fog possible through at least
part of the morning hours Tuesday. Precip chances diminish during
the afternoon hours, and move out of the area for the most part
Tuesday evening.

Wednesday and Thursday continue to look warm with highs in the mid
60s to lower 70s. And if guidance continues the latest trends, we
may see highs in the mid to upper 70s by Thursday.

Models continue to struggle with the Thursday night through
weekend time period. A cold front is still expected to move
through late Thursday night/Friday morning, cooling high
temperatures into the 50s Friday and Saturday. The next push of
cold air is expected to push through the area Saturday night,
resulting in further cooling for Sunday. As far as precipitation
goes, the forecast continues to be uncertain, but has continued to
trend to a drier solution, so will only have slight chances for
precipitation for areas east of a Brownwood to Brady to Junction
line from late Thursday night through Friday with passage of the
initial cold front.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 63 47 60 38 / 5 20 50 10
San Angelo 65 47 63 40 / 5 30 50 5
Junction 64 50 64 39 / 10 60 70 5
Brownwood 61 50 59 37 / 10 30 80 10
Sweetwater 63 45 61 40 / 5 20 40 10
Ozona 62 45 62 37 / 5 40 40 5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Brown-
Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Irion-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sutton-
Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$
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