Location:  
MeteoStar


FXUS64 KSJT 240450
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1150 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

South winds continue to howl across West Central Texas terminals
late this evening, with gusts at or above 40kts noted at KABI
(Abilene) and KSJT (San Angelo). These winds will continue until a
cold front moves into the area during the early morning hours,
clearing the eastern terminals before sunrise. Radars continue to
show scattered showers and storms across the Permian Basin, with
coverage expected to increase slightly as they move across West
Central Texas. Have updated the mention of VCTS in the terminals
to account for latest timing. Wind speeds will decrease slightly
behind the front, but should increase once more by mid to late
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Strong southerly winds will continue to be the primary aviation
concern this evening, with gusts of 30-40 knots across the
terminals. These winds will continue overnight ahead of a cold
front. As the front crosses the area, a scattered line of showers
and storms are likely to develop. Given the uncertainty in timing
and coverage, continued the use of the VCTS already in the
forecast, although did update the time periods to better reflect
the latest data from the mesoscale models. After the front, strong
west and southwest winds will develop and continue through Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Gusty south winds will continue across the area through the evening
hours and did not make any change, with Wind Advisory conditions s
to the current Wind Advisory that is in effect until 1 AM Friday.
The main challenge in the short term period will be convective
chances late this evening and overnight as lift from an upper trough
interacts with an eastward moving dryline/Pacific front. The Hi-Res
models have been fairly anemic concerning convective development
across our area, with perhaps a broken line of showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms entering far western counties by late evening
and moving across the rest of the area overnight. Will keep chance
POPs going for tonight, tapering off across southeast sections by
mid morning. Basically a high shear, low CAPE environment overnight
and while a strong storm or two is possible, the severe weather
threat is expected to rather low.

Gusty southwest to west winds and a much drier airmass will filter
into the area on Friday. This will set the stage for critical fire
weather conditions across much of the area. Please reference the Fire
Weather Watch that has been issued for Friday. A Wind Advisory will
likely be needed again for a good portion of the area Friday
afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday but still
above normal, with afternoon highs around 80 degrees.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

Ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected Saturday morning,
with overnight low temperatures dropping into the mid 40s for most
locations. Temperatures in low lying areas and river valleys may
drop into the low 40s. High temperatures on Saturday will range from
the mid 70s across the Big Country to the upper 70s to lower 80s
elsewhere.

An upper level shortwave trough will approach the Central Plains
Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of this system, a dryline will
move through much of the forecast area Sunday, with west winds
increasing to 15 to 25 mph. High temperatures will be well above
seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 80s. A cold front will move
through the area Monday morning, resulting in gusty north winds
and slightly cooler temperatures. Highs will mainly be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along the front across mainly the
northwest Hill Country, where better moisture will reside.

A more potent upper level low is forecast to move into the Desert
Southwest late Tuesday into Wednesday, then approach West Central
Texas late Wednesday into Thursday. Models are coming into better
agreement with the track of this system, although timing differences
continue. The ECMWF has trended deeper with the system, but is still
about 12 hours faster than the GFS. Given the better consistency,
PoPs were trended up for the Tuesday night through Wednesday night
time frame. The details on the possibility of strong to severe
storms, along with locally heavy rainfall, will become more apparent
as we get closer to the event.

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across much
of the area on Friday, as a much drier airmass filters in behind a
Pacific front that will move across the area overnight. Sustained
southwest to west winds of 20 to 25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph are
expected to develop from late morning through the afternoon hours,
with relative humidities dropping into the 15 to 20 percent range.
The combination of strong winds and low relative humidities will
create dangerous fire weather conditions for much of the area, with
any fires quickly becoming uncontrollable. Based on latest model
guidance, the Fire Weather Watch has been expanded to include all
but the far southeast portion of the forecast area on Friday. The
Watch includes those areas generally north and west of a Brownwood
to Sonora line.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 58 79 46 76 / 40 5 0 0
San Angelo 57 81 47 81 / 40 5 0 0
Junction 60 82 47 82 / 40 20 0 0
Brownwood 59 80 47 78 / 40 20 0 0
Sweetwater 55 78 48 76 / 40 0 0 0
Ozona 55 79 47 80 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CDT Friday through Friday evening
for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-
Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-
Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-
Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

07/99/99
Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page