FXUS64 KSJT 150206
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
906 PM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.UPDATE...

COLD FRONT FINALLY ON THE MOVE THIS EVENING...LOCATED FROM NEAR
STERLING CITY TO 10 MILES NORTH OF SAN ANGELO TO WINCHELL AT 9 PM.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS. NOT PLANNING
ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S...BUT HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO IS CONTINUING
TO HEAD WEST AND WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM NEAR MIDLAND TO SOUTH OF BROWNWOOD WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTH THIS EVENING. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH NEW MEXICO...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP AND
OVER THE FRONT TONIGHT PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010/

SHORT TERM...
WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED LOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN AZ/NM BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM. THIS LOW WILL BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS IN OK AND NORTHWEST TEXAS ARE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST...WHILE REMAINING EAST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR IN OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT AND IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 50S WHILE
OUR CWA IS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL
MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH NM AND INTO WEST TEXAS BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE AREA...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
TOP OF THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL COMBINE WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF AN ABILENE TO SONORA
LINE FOR MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1/2 INCH THE
AREA THAT DO RECEIVE RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM
STERLING CITY TO SONORA. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT BRINGING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE
BIG BEND REGION BY LATE MONDAY. 18Z NAM MATCHES THE SPEED OF THE
12Z GFS WITH THE GFS MOVING THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND
THE NAM EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT. BEST DYNAMICS
AND RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE GOOD OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE BEST TOTALS
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT MONDAY. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

AFTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS BRINGING THE NEXT SYSTEM
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. THE GFS PLACES THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...HAVE KEEP A MENTION OF RAINFALL AT
LEAST FOR OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20 THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COOLER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WEST OF A
LINE FROM ABILENE TO MASON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED HALF AN
INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT THE OVERALL AVERAGE WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.

BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH LOWERING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
STAY GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT ELEVATED CONDITIONS COULD RETURN BY
FRIDAY AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 44 52 39 60 39 / 10 20 60 20 0
SAN ANGELO 44 60 40 55 37 / 10 60 70 30 0
JUNCTION 44 63 43 60 38 / 0 50 70 30 0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08




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