FXUS64 KSJT 190548

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

/06Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. As a
cold front pushes across West Central Texas this morning, very
gusty winds, from the northwest, will dominate. Sustained winds in
the range of 18 to 20 knots will then continue across West
Central Texas today. Plus, gusts in the range of 25 to 30 knots
look likely. By 03Z Tuesday, expect winds to continue from the
northwest or north and diminish to around 10 knots.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018/

/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions to prevail across all terminals through the
next 24 hours. A Pacific front will move across the region on
Monday turning winds more westerly. Wind speeds will ease a little
overnight before becoming gusty once again on Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018/

(Tonight and Tuesday)

Dryline has surged east across much of the area late this morning
and into the afternoon hours, with only the northern Big Country
holding on to any low level moisture. Some cu has developed across
this area this afternoon, and there is some possibility of a few
isolated thunderstorms until around sunset. Behind the dryline,
drier air and gusty winds will continue through the afternoon hours
and into Monday. Several grass fires already reported across the
area, with the biggest so far showing up in western Crockett County.

For tonight, Pacific front will slide through the area and keep the
strong west and northwest winds in place. Temperatures will cool,
but only into the upper 40s and lower 50s as wind speeds just don't
let up. Winds continue into Monday and may even increase a little as
stronger winds aloft mix down to the surface. Temperatures will be
cooler, with highs around 70 in the north to mid 70s farther south.

Red Flag criteria easily being met across the area from Ozona to San
Angelo, and approaching quickly at Sweetwater and Abilene. Will
leave the warning alone for the remainder of the afternoon. Humidity
recovery tonight will be limited, remaining in the 30 to 40 percent
range. As temperatures climb tomorrow, humidities drop again and
critical fire weather conditions will develop once more. The current
Fire Weather Watch for Monday will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning.


(Monday night through Sunday)

Colder temperatures are forecast Monday morning, behind a weak front
that will move through the area late Monday afternoon or early
Monday evening. Expect low temperatures generally in the low 40s,
although a few low lying locations may drop into the upper 30s.
Cooler temperatures are forecast on Tuesday, with highs in the mid
60s to lower 70s.

A slow warm up is forecast through the end of the work week. Highs
on Wednesday will be back into the 70s for most locations, with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s forecast on Thursday. Overnight
lows will generally be in the 50s. Unseasonably hot temperatures are
anticipated on Friday as weak upper level ridging develops across
Texas. Highs will be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. The
unseasonably hot conditions will continue into the weekend, with
highs generally in the 80s. The next large upper level trough will
approach West Central Texas from the west late Sunday into Monday.
Given differences in timing and strength of this feature, have opted
to only include slight chance PoPs on Sunday across our southeast


Abilene 38 65 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 39 70 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
Junction 40 71 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
Brownwood 41 67 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
Sweetwater 39 65 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
Ozona 38 70 44 75 / 0 0 0 0


Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-
San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.


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