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FXUS64 KSJT 232320
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
620 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR across the area this evening. Stratus and MVFR
ceilings will return to the southern terminals late tonight and
Thursday morning(10Z-16Z). Low clouds will break up by late
morning, with VFR returning by afternoon across West Central
Texas. 21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Across West Central Texas this afternoon, there are numerous streaks
of scattered cumulus clouds indicated on visible satellite imagery,
while surface observations indicate temperatures having risen to the
upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s. Out in the
Permian Basin, convection has initiated along the dry-line as a
subtle short-wave trough aloft moves up in the southwest flow aloft.
Some runs of the HRRR show this convection approaching our western
counties late this evening with the thunderstorms/showers
dissipating as they move into our forecast area overnight tonight.
Even though most other hi-res models keep any thunderstorms to our
west, decided to add slight chance of showers/thunderstorms for the
western half of our forecast area for late tonight. Otherwise,
expect areas of low clouds to once again develop in southern and
eastern areas late tonight into Thursday morning, with lows in the
upper 60s.

With an upper level ridge continuing to build on Thursday, expect
the warming trend to persist, with forecast highs in the low 90s
and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

..Summer heat wave arrives by the holiday weekend...

The major weather story going into the holiday weekend, will be
the hot temperatures that will be felt across all of west Texas.
For our area, temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal
beginning Saturday and continuing into next week.

San Angelo: Normal high 88.
Abilene: Normal high 86.

(Friday through next Wednesday)

An upper level ridge will settle across much of Texas through much
of this time period. Warming 850 mb temperatures will yield hot
temperatures across the region beginning Friday. Highs on Friday
will climb into the mid to upper 70s under mostly sunny skies.

The beginning of the heat wave will take place on Saturday, just
in time for Memorial Day weekend. With skies remaining clear and
850 mb temperatures in the 25-27 degree Celsius range, highs on
Saturday will reach triple digits for many locations. Current
forecast highs for Abilene and San Angelo is 100 and 101 degrees
respectively. These hot temperatures will continue into the early
part of next week, with much of the area seeing temperatures in
the 98 to 101 degree range. Overnight lows will hover in the low
to mid 70s through the week. We will continue to watch the latest
temperature trends in regards to potentially issuing a Heat
Advisory for the region. Some MOS guidance outputs show
temperatures reaching advisory levels on Saturday and Sunday.
Current forecast zones keep temperatures just below these levels.
The hot and dry weather will continue with just a few hit or miss
isolated showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 68 91 69 96 / 20 10 5 5
San Angelo 68 93 69 97 / 20 5 5 5
Junction 68 92 69 94 / 10 5 0 5
Brownwood 67 90 68 95 / 10 10 5 5
Sweetwater 69 91 70 95 / 20 10 10 10
Ozona 69 91 68 95 / 20 5 5 5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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