FXUS65 KSLC 152150

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
350 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A weak weather disturbance will keep a threat of
showers and thunderstorms over the area through Tuesday. Drier
weather will return for midweek.


.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Wednesday)...The forecast area remains
under a northwest flow this afternoon behind a trough currently
centered over Colorado and New Mexico. The airmass has dried out
just a bit over the area behind this feature, but lingering weak
shortwave energy is allowing for another round of showers and
thunderstorms. The storms are generally focused over the higher
terrain, though there has been some drift into adjacent valleys,
particularly over portions of the Wasatch Front and Cache Valley
as well as southeast Utah. The threat of storms will continue into
the evening before the loss of daytime heating. Have raised POPs a
bit for the evening to account for this threat. Overall,
temperatures are running in the vicinity of seasonal normals once
again this afternoon.

Another ill-defined trough will make its way into California
tomorrow before stalling and closing off on Monday. Weak
shortwaves from this low will continue to impact the forecast area
into Tuesday, keeping showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Instability is progged to be highest on Monday, so that day will
see the greatest threat of convection.

.LONG TERM (After 00Z Wednesday)...The broad upper ridge centered
across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific will maintain a stable and
generally dry west-northwest flow aloft across the Great Basin

The upper trough moving along the southern Alaska coast early in the
week will turn southeast into western Canada midweek. This trough
will continue south-southeast into the Pacific Northwest/northern
Rockies by late in the week. Significantly colder air aloft will
pour into those area beginning Thursday night, with this colder air
mass remain over those areas through the weekend.

For Utah, particularly the northern half of Utah, lowering heights
and colder air aloft will drive temps lower heading into the
weekend. The unseasonably cold air aloft along with dynamic support
for lift will overcome the relatively dry air mass to generate what
will mostly be light convective precip Friday/Saturday.

Southern Utah could remain a bit more favorably for convective
precip during the weekend. The low-level baroclinic zone associated
with the passing upper trough settling into southern Utah along with
a more favorable moisture environment will support isolated to
scattered convection both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures across
the south will be cooler over the weekend due to the cloud cover,
precipitation, and modestly cooler temps aloft.


.AVIATION...Minimal weather impacts expected at the KSLC terminal
through the TAF period. Cumulus buildups near the vicinity are
weakening at this time and will continue to fade away this afternoon
and early evening with no impacts expected at the terminal. West
northwest winds are expected to shift to the southeast at about 04Z.


.FIRE WEATHER...An ill-defined trough approaching the California
coast will allow for a series of weak weather disturbances to
impact the district through Tuesday. This will keep the threat of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, primarily over the
higher terrain, with the best coverage of showers anticipated on
Monday. High pressure will briefly move in for midweek, but a
grazing storm system will bring cooler temperatures and perhaps a
few showers and thunderstorms late in the week.


UT...Flood Watch from 9 PM MDT this evening through Monday evening
for UTZ003.



LONG TERM...Conger

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