FXUS65 KSLC 242109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
309 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure across the region today will give way to
a southerly flow aloft Friday. The next Pacific storm system will
begin to impact the area Saturday and remain in place through
early next week, bringing unsettled weather and cooler


.SHORT TERM (Through 06Z Monday)...High pressure is over the
forecast area this afternoon. Conditions are generally dry, though
a few showers have developed over the Uintas as well as over
northwest Utah. The threat for showers in those areas continues
through the early evening before the showers dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating. Temperatures have warmed noticeably
yesterday, with most locations seeing maxes at least 10F above
seasonal normals.

The ridge will shift east tomorrow as the storm system near 130W
makes its way onshore over California. Increasing southerly flow
will allow warmer air to continue to advect in, allowing the
warming trend to continue. The storm system will then continue
east, entering western Utah by Saturday afternoon and slowly
moving across the forecast area through Tuesday. Showers will
start to increase Saturday over northern Utah on the front side of
the low. However, the wettest day looks to be Sunday with the best
cold pool instability moving in. Have increased POPs with
increasing confidence, putting the greatest threat over northern
and central portions of the forecast area. The arrival of the
storm system will also bring temperatures back to near seasonal
normals for Sunday.

.LONG TERM (After 06Z Monday)...The upper low overhead begins to
weaken heading into Monday, becoming an open wave feature by early
Tuesday with ridging building in from the west. The jet remains to
the south of the low and the best moisture resides to the west and
north of the feature. Some embedded vort maxes rotating around the
low as it weakens should lend way to enough lift and instability to
warrant showers and thunderstorm chances through Monday evening,
before the patten weakens and dries out.

Temperatures will be coolest during the late weekend/early part of
the week before warming well above seasonal normal through the week.
Mostly dry conditions are expected, however some residual moisture
present through the week under weak ridging may lead to afternoon
shower chances, mainly across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming.

Late next week there is potential for another cut-off low to swing
through the Great Basin and bring unsettled conditions back to the
area with increasing winds. There also exists the potential for a
zonal-flow like pattern under dry west-northwest flow.


.AVIATION...Southerly winds at the KSLC terminal are expected to
become light and shift to the northwest between 21z-22z under VFR
conditions with scattered clouds. A wind shift to the southeast is
expected between 03z-04z this evening.


.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure over the district is resulting in warm
and generally dry conditions today. The ridge will shift east
tomorrow ahead of an approaching storm system allowing for
increasing southerly flow and even warmer temperatures. The
increasing flow will allow for areas of breezy winds, primarily
over western and southern Utah. The storm system will slowly makes
its way across the district Saturday through Tuesday, bringing
cooler conditions with a threat of showers and thunderstorms,
primarily across northern and central Utah.





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