FXUS65 KSLC 042251
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
350 PM MST THU DEC 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WILL DRY OUT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONGLY POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO
SPLIT AS IT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH
SHALLOW INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROF AXIS HAS
KEPT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MTS AND THESE WILL CONTINUE A FEW MORE HOURS THEN QUIT.

THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND THE
AIRMASS WARMS ALOFT TRAPPING COLD AIR IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.

THE NEW 12Z EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A SHARPER SHORT WAVE FOR MON AND
THE 18Z GFS FOLLOWED SUIT. HAVE BUMPED POPS FOR THE NRN CWA FOR MON
AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL GET ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NRN ZONES SWD TO THE CENTRAL MTS.

WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW THRU THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND PRONE
TO WEAK RIPPLES BRINGING CLOUDS AND A SMALL THREAT OF PRECIP TO THE
NORTH BUT WITH HIGH ENOUGH HEIGHTS TO KEEP THE COLD AIR OFF TO THE
EAST.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A PATTERN SHIFT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH BOTH OF THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING A RATHER STRONG TROF MOVING
INTO THE WEST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW THAT THIS WILL ACTUALLY
OCCUR HOWEVER AS THESE END OF THE RUN TROFS OFTEN DO NOT PAN
OUT...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 6000 FT WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 6000 FT WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THAN USUAL...BETWEEN
04Z AND 06Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

WILENSKY/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)







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