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FXUS66 KSTO 192112
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
212 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures close to average early this week, but will return to
above average for the second half of the week. Dry weather
pattern continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current (2PM) temperatures are running similar to yesterday's
readings, with Valley temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.
Ensemble probabilities support marine stratus being advected into
the Delta region tonight/early morning, and some of these clouds
could extend into the Sacramento area.

Temperatures will remain near average early this week as a weak
trough lingers. Highs will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s in the
Valley, while mountain locations should see highs in the low 60s
to low 80s. An upper disturbance is forecast to brush by to the
north on Wednesday, so this will prevent temperatures from warming
up significantly. No precipitation is expected with this system,
but increasing cloud cover is anticipated mainly across the
northern half of the forecast area.

Above average temperatures return for the second half of the week
as high pressure strengthens. Valley locations should see
temperatures generally in the upper 90s to around 105; warmest
readings expected on Thursday. Overnight relief is expected, with
lows generally in the 60s over the Valley. Although heat like this
happens many times a year, sensitive groups could still experience
heat-related impacts. Dry weather will continue through the
period.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...

Model guidance indicates a ridge building into California through
the extended period, with daytime temperatures generally 5-10
degrees above seasonal normals. Forecast highs are anticipated to
be mainly in the upper 90s to around 105. Deterministic ECMWF
indicates much warmer temperatures compared to its ensemble mean.
Meanwhile, the deterministic GFS is in much better agreement with
its average. Therefore, current forecast reflects NBM
temperatures given model uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Some brief lower
ceilings possible from marine stratus through 15z-18Z in the
Sacramento area. Southwest wind gusts up to 25-30 knots possible
across the Delta and its vicinity.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
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